The Curious Case of Rising Value

Some very specific price levels were mentioned earlier, price levels which without doubt “brought the action” if you will.  This tells you the methodology is effective.  Initially, I though losing such levels would be a reasonable indication that my longs should be reduced, and perhaps they should have.

But there were a few observations which kept me in-

1.  We printed an excess low on the /NQ_F. Excess is a tail, it is price going too far and snapping back in the other direction, it is touching your hand to the lid of a charcoal grill because you are drunk.  A strong reaction occurs.
2.  Although SPY and QQQ made new lows on the week, Russell diverged
3. Momentum stocks, creatures of wonder as they are, were way off their lows all over the place
4. Our VPOC is above yesterday’s, see below:

When faced with these observations, there was little choice but to stick with the course I have plotted.  My TNA long sits unchanged, how bad is it out there, really?

The negative news cycle is as pronounced as we have seen in months, maybe years.  I remember a wave of selling hitting the tape at any mention of Euro Zone weakness, how soon it was all forgotten?  Now we lose 9 Nasdaq points on a Russia/Ukraine piece, any piece, yet a bid remains in growth.  Observe, and mind you perceptions.

How many of you, with your own eyes, have observed the Russian troops amassed on the Ukrainian border?  With your own eyes, not stock frottage from CNN of fucking tanks driving around.  Imagine a big group of Russian men, tenting out in the wilderness with combat gear and vodka, being Russian.  Who are they even threatening besides themselves and the local wildlife?

We have a seller.  The seller has conviction and shows up every time we press over our composite VPOC.  If this seller is put on their heels it would be a massive amount of fuel for upside.  If they drive lower, they can take profits and reload on the next rip.  They have not had much of an opportunity to book gains yet, just as the bulls haven’t.  The two forces are very much clashing until we have a victor.

Until the market goes decidedly red, dragging bull carcasses around the ring while a mariachi band plays, there is a bid in this market.

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