The Bull is Back

I will keep this simple and direct.

I was a bear, but now I am not. I want the market to trade down 99% — but it won’t.

I have survival instincts and want to believe; therefore I shall almost always respect what the price action is telling me. I cannot be more emphatic about this close and how important it was: The Bull is Back (at least for now).

The true test will be on Monday when markets usually dip.

Having said that, I closed 143% leveraged long, no hedges. I traded myself out of an early hole today, due to some massive shorts held overnight and closed +1.04%. This isn’t great performance and I know it — but that’s ok. My gains of 5.6% YTD are pedestrian and you’d expect it from just about any civilian long this market. That’s ok too.

My trading has been careful and deliberate — but I am grateful for what I can achieve, as long as it’s progress, and I look forward to finding my tape that will result in some outperformance. This happens to be the perfect tape for me: momentum oriented climbing a wall of worry. All I need to complete this bespoke environment is a theme. I might have one soon.

Stay tuned and join Stocklabs you miserly pieces of shit. iBC ad rates are into the floor, practically zero. How else do you expect me to feed ANTIFA FLY in Boston away at school?

Cheers.

Every morning dip is purchased. All trash is bought. Every single decline is a buying opp. This appears to be the realty we are once again in.

I made an index inside Stocklabs of Fallen A List stocks. These aren’t necessarily great companies, but stocks that used to be good and fell hard last year. Risk is most definitely on in 2023 and the best stocks are the worst and the worst performing stocks are the one’s that you’d think should be up — just such defense contractors.

NOC is down 19% YTD.

I have a pre set portfolio of longs that I’m gonna leave alone today. I only closed out my fucking hedges and added UPST to the mix — because UPST is a piece of shit that is perfect for this bizaaro market.

This happens on occasion. I let the hubris get the better of me and completely fuck myself. It all started this morning when the market opened and ended when it closed. I had great successes, but squandered them like a fucking moron — because I was greedy and felt entitled to more. There is no lesson in any of this because I already know what I did wrong and how it happened. I only get to deal with consequences and those results are DOWN 0.57% for the day.

Now I know what some of you losers are thinking: “Hello Dear Fly, chin up my boy — down 0.57% isn’t much to get yourself rabbled roused about. Have yourself a pint.”

FUCK OFF.

My expectations were to make money today and then come on here and tell you about it. Instead, I get to recount a tale of failure and permit license to some of my enemies to laugh and feeeeeeeel good about my plight. Well, and I will have you know now, I do intend to seek out a vicious form of revenge and will not rest until I do so.

For the year, I am +4.5% and I have not even begun to extend my cock into this market. Dare I suggest and even say with certainty — I shall stand before you yet again vicious and with the severed heads of my enemies hanging from my belt buckle — as I actively saw off the legs of the others in my way.

GOOD AFTERNOON.

The US continues its economic and military dominance post WW2, uninterrupted. Russian advances in Ukraine stopped due to the western alliance and Ukraine is given full NATO membership post war. Investment in post war Ukraine mirrors that of the Marshall plan, Germany 1945, and provides western contracts with billions in additional revenues.

Due to the Western victory, China falls back in line and warms to the west — providing a fertile environment for investment in a unipolar world.

Pax Americana is refreshed and invigorated by the western victory and demand for dollars soars to record highs, amidst a celebration of what is called “rules based order” by democratic countries in the west. The status quo reigns supreme and the market decline of 2022 is negated — led higher by big tech whose role in a victorious west will be to adhere to government edicts.

GDP growth recovers and American spending hits record highs, as deficit spending increases so does the average wage — giving renewed life to the housing market.

Green energy polices provides investors with fresh avenues of investment whilst also reducing western reliance on unreliable sources of energy. Monetary policy normalizes amidst 2-3% CPI growth, providing investors with a future of potential Fed easing and years of growth and comfort.

Unemployment remains at record lows, providing cause to permit millions of illegals into the country to fill voids. The spike in population will contribute to US GDP growth, while at the same time increasing government spending — which is viewed in a benign manner since the dollar is solidified as currency reserve.

Markets soar to record highs — leading to a spike in alternative investments like Bitcoin.

All is well and everyone lives happily ever after, all gay — some tranny — birth rates drop to zero amidst the whites and the world is soon covered with new people who govern in a fair and equitable fashion — eschewing the colonialism practiced by the former landlords.

We just peaked out at $31.4T and now the treasury will dip into reserves, which is usually about a month of non Ukrainian world spending. Very soon Congress will raise limit and we can get back to laying the groundwork for the total destruction of western finance and the dollar.

On the war side, there are so many things to be alarmed over — from Russian anti-aircraft batteries being placed on top buildings in Moscow to massive new weapons commitments to Ukraine to a seemingly insane cadre of comments from western leaders, on par with the nonsensical jargon heard during peak COVID forced vaccination times. It’s like these people really are lizards — not of human quality — and make decisions based upon their most severe insecurities.

If you asked me to take a guess on the chances of NATO entering a hot conflict with Russia I’d immediately say 100% chance.

Stocks look bad today, but nothing insurmountable. Breadth is at 40% and you can tell buyers want an excuse to buy more. I had closed out my 45% weighted hedges at the open but soon after reapplied a 20% of SQQQ to my 100% long book. I’m not sure if it’ll be a good trade or not but really do hope for the best, especially since I’m a good person and really do feeeeeeel I deserve to have more money.

It’s easy to believe this market drubbing is the beginning of the end for the bulls. Truth is, the trend has been up and even though the economy is now CONFIRMED in full collapse mode — we must assume the bulls will pull more rabbits out from their asses.

I closed down 2bps for the session — because true skill is being able to purposely trade to FLAT. My whole life I have either made lots of money or lost in stocks — so I am trying a new task of closing FLAT.

YTD, my gains exceed 5% and I closed with a large amount of hedges which will produce gains should market collapse at the open.

This evening we will once against request the creator of the universe to take time out of his busy schedule to CRASH THE FUCKING OPEN because Sodom deserves it.

Once upon a time this morning — we had it all. I was up more than 2.3%, coming fresh off a totally legal takeover win in VLTA — 100% long into HORRENDOUS PPI numbers. Nothing could stop me. But then the market started to crank and the gears stymied from LACK OF GREASE and the mechanisms that kept it running COLLAPSED and prices followed with it downward into a never-ending stream of pain and blood.

In this post Apocalyptic world I now write to you from, I am merely +16bps. The real tear jerker in all of this is I knew it was coming and did nothing to stop it. The only reason why I am even up now is due to fast paced and frantic hedging along the way lower. At one point I was 50% short on top of a 100% long book for a 150% leveraged book of sheer fuckery.

The Dow is off nearly 400 and the NASDAQ -81. These aren’t largess losses; but the psychological damage is enough to give people PTSD. We are afraid of a snowballing and rolling downward into the fires where the recent gains might endure the pangs of a slow death spinning on one of Satans pitched forks.

Why is the market lower?

Some argue because Fed’s Powell caught COVID. No one gives a fuck about that or him for that matter. We only care about the FOMC as an institution and what it can do for us, in terms of rigging. The market is down because Pax Americana is over. The idyllic Main Street is now FESTOONED with Tranny rainbow avatars prancing about with Ukrainian flags, clamoring for Russian blood. No one did anything to stop it and now it’s too late.

It’s over again.

Really good news lads. Today’s PPI was so bad, it almost matched the COVID lows when the entire economy was shut down.

PPI Biggest drop since April 2020 when US was shutdown pic.twitter.com/XoskMWMbbc

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 18, 2023

Microsoft is laying off 10,000 and the economy is in a tailspin.

On this news, stocks are up and the US 10Yr PLUNGING -14bps to 3.39% — just in time for the spring housing market.

Commodities are ripping and the dollar dropping: perfect.

I also caught a buyout this morning with VLTA and stand before you +200bps or +7.15% for 2023.

Interestingly, my automated quant is +7.65% for 2023. I simply cannot stop the winning.

Thank you Jim Biden for destroying the US economy, allowing me to profit.

I squandered an early gain of 87bps — but I had no choice in the matter. My balls, for all intents and purposes, have been CLEAVED OFF CLEAN — by way of the weekly quant allocation. I am FORCED against my will to be 100% long and trade around it — because I know betting against stocks for long periods of time is a SUCKERS BET no matter how much ethanol I drink and no matter how many nukes Putin thinks he has.

Truth is, I traded down 5bps and hedged it with SOXS at 20%. I am also leveraged to the tune of 146% — because why the fuck not?

I deserve to have money and boxes filled with cigars and large resplendent wine cellars filled with crates of DRC.

Tomorrow my algo account closes out the SQQQ short, which was initiated based upon the overbought signal. This is the first time I have made a trade based on OB — because the prevailing trend, prior to 2023, had been to fade the market. However, that didn’t happen, as you know, and Stocklabs was FESTOONED with clusters of OB signals — a clear signal of sentiment shift for those who know.

I want to believe many things and those things are ideas floating around in my head, brought on by aspirations, frustrations, and many other inputs received from my environment. But one thing is indelibly clear, in spite of today’s -400 Dow showing: risk is on. When risk turns off I will once again sigh a breath of relief and make money betting on the destruction of western finance as we know it. But until that happens, markets are presumed innocent until proven otherwise.

I won’t bother linking sources to where I heard Putin was going to make a major announcement tomorrow. Suffice it today, I want to believe it is true therefore it is. Henceforth, you will believe it too.

News from the battlefront points to a meeting in Germany inside two days to decide the fate of German tanks to Ukraine. The new defense minister of Germany said the single red line they have is not to be involved in World War 3 — an interesting choice of words. The other issue is continuous Russian advances, although incremental, inside The Donbas. I will say this with absolute certitude, it would be impossible for Russia to ever lose a war against Ukraine. It will not end with Ukraine landing in Crimea, atop a rainbow colored US submarine — declaring they made Putin turn trans. Even if Ukraine was able to rout Russia from the battlefield, Russia would attack Ukraine every day for the next thousand years until nothing was left of Ukraine.

Then we have the former advisor to Zelensky issuing a bizarre interview, more or less calling out Ukraine for their idiotic foreign policy of wanting Russians out of Ukraine only to have said Russians come back to Ukraine with an army. This gent was FIRED for admitting the recent civilian building hit in Dnipro was the result of a Russian missile being intercepted and not Russia intentionally targeting the civilian high-rise.

FORMER ADVISOR TO ZELENSKY IN BATSHIT INTERVIEWpic.twitter.com/PBSQ4JtgfJ

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) January 17, 2023

The other consistent thing I’ve been reading about is foreign mercenaries inside Bakhmut. Several sources have claimed seeing black soldiers on the Ukrainian side and thousands of poles. The US and UK are now actively training division size groupings of Ukrainians and it seems Ukraine has an endless supply of men to spend on the battlefield in favor of diplomats who could perhaps end the fighting.

The prevailing wisdom of the west is such: we must break and shatter the Russian economy and people, militarily destroy it, and then split Russia into five separate nations, whereby western businesses could return to Russia with money and equipment to tap the seemingly endless supply of Russian resources. We must do this in order to “show China” because they’re getting uppity and have banned feminized boys from their TEEVEES and also they’re meddling in Taiwan and we like Taiwan to make our semiconductors and they’re part of our Asian cabal with Japan and the lipstick wearing men listening to Kpop in S. Korea. So we must break Russia, even if it risks world war and nuclear detonations — because the plight of man is to subjugate the weak and it’s fun to pretend we’re still mighty — since all of the books we have written about ourselves tell us so and the movies also declare us to be of super-human qualities. Ergo, and this goes without saying, we can defeat Russia on their front step because we have something both Hitler and Napoleon didn’t have: tranny brigades.