Chalk Up Another W for Le Fly

Even if I tried I could not lose money in this tape or any tape for that matter. Some of you might be really good at flipping burgers or flapped jacks, or perhaps washing windows or even polishing shoes. This is my trade and over the many decades of real life experience battling in the markets, I have taken on a grizzled visage — one of experience and wisdom — fully capable of surveying the market place and winning on a consistent basis.

This is the first day in nearly a fortnight that I didn’t feel on the verge of instantaneous death, a byproduct of the COVID virus. However terrible it is, I am immensely grateful for hating my government so much I didn’t trust them when they shopped their vaccines around in 2020 and 2021. For all of those who DIED SUDDENLY and are reading this in the afterlife, find solace in knowing you were just a fool and could not be saved.

Fools and women are tricked all the time, made to believe in fanciful things — told direct lies and hear nothing but truth. In some regard, these are high trust characteristics — but on the other a grave naivety because they believe the advice from the people who hate them most.

You are nothing more than useful cudgels in a millennia blood feud that will only be settled through war and violence. The political solutions have been expended and the middle ground is a mirage — a wayward pit falling deep into the fires of discord, vaccines, gay propaganda, radicalized hatred and a godless consumerism bordering on worship of the devil.

In other news, I am rather bullish on the tape for tomorrow’s opening salvo and have positions in very high priced stocks for another morning rally.

I made +112bps for the session, up 4.46% for the month of January.

I did warn you not to get involved with all that, chasing stocks in a car filled with dynamite heading towards the sun. For the love of God, high beta stocks were up 5.7% by 10am. What did you think was going to happen? Since then, stocks have COLLAPSED and the $SPY is barely +25bps.

The high beta index I keep alluding to is inside Stocklabs, a pastiche of stocks with beta higher than 1.5x. That index is now +2.6%. Now it’s important to note being +260bps is a GOOD DAY and if markets closed here it would still be a GOOD DAY. But it isn’t any good for day trading, since we have overhead resistance now filled with MORONS who chased are are now TRAPPED.

Even so, I started to nibble back stocks after going to cash this morning, +111bps and 65% cash. I intend to acquire more stocks before the session ends and barring a full collapse — I will most likely do so without a hedge.

The overall situation is BULLISH, albeit the intra-day chicanery is frustrating and rookies will be tricked and fooled into folly. These things happen.

The set up was obvious. Market had already been strong in spite of rates going up. But today rates dropped 5bps and markets absolutely busted out, led higher by rate sensitive high beta stocks +3.2%. For me, that’s too much to buy into and if I’m long with high beta stocks +3.22%, I sell.

Since I was fully long into today, I liquidated all and locked in gains of +113bps. I don’t have any desire to make more and will not be lured back into the market until late afternoon.

My gains are near +4.5% for January, a success. I won’t do anything to spoil it and since I’m not a greedy man, I’ll re re-enter the market cautiously, wade into it methodically like a scientist, calibrating the perfect portfolio for tomorrow’s opening salvo.

$NVDA is now worth $500b more than $META, on the heels of Amazon. I’d like to lament on here wondering how I missed it — but I didn’t. I am long $NVDA from the low $100s in my children’s trust accounts — because I finally caved into the math.

These giant winners do not come out of nowhere. There are core fundamentals that drive them, specifically rev growth, free cash flow and gross margins. But in this era, one of the most important prerequisites for becoming a 10 bagger is you already need a market cap in the tens of billions if not higher. Only the super capitalized companies are able to scale these days, with very few exceptions. I did see scans inside Stocklabs in attempt to peer into the future, to find the next $NVDA. I already know what is it — and I’ll tell you now so you can read it and ignore it and then come back to this post in 5 years lamenting about the what could have beens, declaring yourself a loser.

IT IS $UBER.

At any rate, here is my special fundamentally driven screen results, sorted by companies with market caps over $50b.

$NVO, $ASML, $NOW, $UBER, $BKNG, $PANW, $MELI, $ANET, $CRWD, $SNOW and $LULU.

That’s it.

Below these are stocks with caps between $10-50b — really scraping the bottom of the barrel here. These are some of the notables.

$DXCM, $FTNT, $DDOG, $SQ, $ZS, $TTD, $HUBS, $MDB and $NET.

It’s basically the who’s who of active trading stocks — and for a reason. Wall Street already knows the winners and the future winners. I forced to choose 3 of the stocks above to become a trillion dollar company — I’d choose $UBER, $ASML and $NOW.

You were all warned of an impending rally yesterday. I told you to get 100% long and not to be fooled — but alas I can only do so much as to direct you to the water. I haven’t figured out a way to force you to drink.

After enduring early losses of 60bps due to an errant $TNA position gone astray, I concluded a COVID afflicted week +49bps in easy and genteel positioning — as market chugged higher almost continuously from the opening dump.

I just got back from $SHAK where I gobbled down a double cheeseburger, fries, and a custard. I am afforded this luxury because I am now attempting to gain 10lbs, after cutting for several months and shedding 17lbs. I hope to complete my recovery this weekend and back to the fucking gym on Monday, initiating my first creatine cycle in years — wholly fixated on strength training with the stated goal of being able to crack humans bones in half with my bare hands.

For the year, the market has been dour — highlighted by high beta stocks down 11%. We are only saved by the “Mag 7” son of a bitches up around 7% YTD.

As per usual, we are in a traders market and I am the very best trader you’ll ever come across in your entire pathetic lives.

My portfolio returns mid-month January, 2024.

I didn’t want to blog because I’m fixated on my $TNA position. I should’ve sold it numerous times this morning and now it’s near session lows and I’m thinking this rally is cooked. I might’ve misjudged the weakness of the bears for the small caps. It seems this divergence between large and small caps will last forever and that’s just the way it has to be, rather emblematic of our society.

The smalls get nothing, not even scraps. The smalls get jail and misery, whilst the elite chosen few expand and enjoy life to the fullest. Those who bet on the smalls join them in prison.

My losses have ranged from -10bps to -60bps for the session. Like I said earlier, I don’t think I’ll make it. But, maybe just maybe we can get one of those lunatic intra day 20 green candle in a row rallies? I’d like that.

Listen to me —

The NASDAQ surged by 200 but more than that — breadth progressed throughout the day from 30% to 50%, and even small caps rallied. Given the backdrop of HIGH BETA stocks down 13% YTD, it would BEHOOVE you to not give it the old college try here, aggressively long, into what could be the first real melt up of 2024.

I closed the session +99bps, in yet another slow but methodical session. My trades are down in number by 2/3rds because I have zero patience for errors in the month of January. I am +2.77% YTD and intend to keep these returns and build upon them throughout 2024, as it is my custom to do so.

My theme is to be long stocks out of the grasp of the canaille, the unwashed $HOOD trader using Reddit as their main source of information. I spit on these people and hope they lose all of their money and spend the rest of their lives as actual slaves.

GOOD DAY

You pussies had it good in 2023, coming to work and effortlessly making coin off the backs of the stocked market — always rigged higher. Well it’s 2024 and all of that shit it out of the door, as your benefactors at the FOMC find themselves in an intricate pickle of higher rates in the face of zero inflation.

What gives?

WHO THE FUCK KNOWS?

All I can tell you is, in all of my years doing this shit — it’s never obvious and my assumptions in the beginning of the year are rarely, if ever, prevalent at the end of the year. If you took my predictions at the beginning of every year since I started blogging at iBankcoin circa 2007, you’d lose all of your money and be sent directly into the poorhouse. I work best as a reactionary, no different from the time I played baseball and could hit your hanging changeup over the wall and beyond into the fucking bay.

As the afternoon wanes on, you see the market is now shooting straight the fuck higher, perhaps 13 green candles in a row. We will soon be entreated to a FUCK YOU red candle and the entire good feelings will be ruined. Into tomorrow, I am cautious but bullish on select stocks. The type of stocks I am buying are institutional favorites, aka smart money. I’ve always been smart money, even when relegated to retail. I will of course contemplate a hedge into tomorrow — but the risk I apply is best mitigated through the duration of time I intend to hold — not the components itself.

+98bps with 1hr and change to go.

Observe how $NVDA, $AAPL $META, $AVGO and all of the high priced stocks are up whilst the smalls collapse into their graves again. At the open, I sold all of my stocks — booking a gain of +97bps. I booked the gain because I didn’t trust the market and made enough for the day. I was not greedy, unlike many of you. I have since spent my day in peace and tranquility as you’ve been bedraggled by stocks like $SAVE into an early coffin.

I will tell you this — this is just about the worst market in the world for some stocks — but pretty good for others. You’ll have t accept this fact and play the prevailing trends.

I’ll probably delve back into high priced stocks soon, setting up for tomorrow’s bounty.

We are not close to oversold yet. As a matter of fact, as you can see by the chart below — we are barely at early Dec 2023 levels. There isn’t any panic in this tape, especially a tape that is holding up the tera caps.

But let’s have a look at which notable stocks are in a BEAR MARKET for 2024.

Stocks down more than 20% for 2024:
$BA -22% $JD -22% $COIN -23% $LI -22% $MBLY -34% $RIVN -28% $ENPH -20% $VFS -31% $NIO -30% $CVNA -20%

Traders exited 2023 in love with electric vehicles and started 2024 with absolute seething hatred for them. There is nothing you can tell me that will convince me this is cogent market analysis — the “all knowing efficient market theory at play.” As time goes on and the more experience I get in trade, the more I realize the market is comprised, at an increasingly rate, abject morons. I do not mean that to come across as elitist or make myself out to be an intellect — for I am not. HOWEVER, once upon a time if a company traded at 10x sales that was considered to be an outrageous valuation. Yet now, investment banks feel comfortable pricing IPOs at 30x sales and then people wonder why $VFS is down 90% from its highs.

The checks and balances have been reduced to barely anything and the only actions the SEC are interested in are against penny stock peddlers who can ill afford to fight them in court.

I closed down 91bps, an improvement from the lows I held into 3 o’clock but another down day, low lighted by my non-stop state of ailment due to another dose of the COVID-19. I am grateful for not being vaccinated.

Into tomorrow, I’ll give it the olde college try again, mostly very long with a downside hedge against oil stocks — since those have been collapsing almost continuously for the better part of the past 18 months.