Russian Grain Deal is Dead, The Freezing of Europe Trade is On Again

One of Russia’s mistakes in the war is not understanding the level of hatred the west has for it. The west blew up their pipeline, sent men and weapons to kill Russians, and yet Russia continued to supply Europe with the materials they needed to survive.

Yesterday’s announcement of the Ukrainian – Russian grain deal ending topped off with missile attacks on the Port of Odessa might elucidate the thinking inside Moscow: total disconnect from the west.

If so, the duplicitous Turks will not be used to transit gas and oil into Europe. And if so, indelibly, Europe will freeze due to lack of natural gas.

This was always Russia’s trump card, but they were too soft to play it. I suppose they wanted their cake and eat it too. But this war has devolved and the rhetoric borders on pro genocide.

Markets are beginning to price this in today, with a major lift in fertilizers, drillers, coal, and anything commodity related. This trade appeals to me incredibly and I’ll be partaking in its bounty.

Pardon the seedy verbiage in this title — but it must be emphasized there isn’t any fear in this fucking tape in a world rife with risk.

The VIX is now sub $14 and the US/UK/URK blew up the Crimean bridge last night and the Black Sea grain deal was canceled by Russia — and let’s not forget the Pentagon just dispatched a destroyer and F35s into the Straight of Hormuz to check Iran. We also, if you weren’t paying attention, sent more troops to Syria.

It doesn’t matter what side you’re on in this war. Markets have concluded Russia is losing and America is easily winning without fear of escalation. This is perhaps a grave disconnect from reality, which can cause some severe drawdowns if anything to the contrary develops.

NEVERTHELESS, like you, I slavishlessy obeyed the tape and finished +93bps without any hedges into tomorrow. The only difference is, between me and you, I am wholly convinced that doom, or whatever you want to call it, looms right around the corner.

Here are some stats for you.

Stocks with market caps over $100b are -7% on a median basis over the past 52 weeks.
Stocks with market caps under $1b are -55% over the past 52 weeks.
Mid cap stocks from $5 – $50b are -11% over the past 52 weeks.

Generally speaking, the market has rewarded mega cap monopolies and following the previous path of FANG. We had a brief period during and after COVID where small caps busted loose and it left the mega caps in the dust. But that bubble popped and if you’re only focusing on the smalls, you should expect to be disappointed.

Presently I am 45% cash, +105bps, one small hedge.

Bears got a little excited on Friday after a bad session where risk was removed from the tape. But lo and behold here we are again SHOOTING THE FUCK HIGHER amidst a frenzy. People want and like the deals. I am +55bps with mostly cash now.

I have been hobbling around on what I imagine to be a TORN MENISCUS. I of course will never visit a doctor or get surgery for it — but will instead recover in my own way. I am sure a great many of you FOOL have gotten surgery for it because you’re stupid and your doctors fooled you out of your money. I will not fall for such trickery and will do my own version of physical therapy, which entails letting it heal for a week and then lots of flexibility exercises. Before you know it, I’ll be running the 40 yard dash again, as if I were trying out for the NFL.

Breadth is 70%, focus is on tech. As you were.

I was looking forward to playing some pickle ball in the 94 degree heat yesterday. That might sound like sarcasm to you — but I do like to be active and I like the feel of the hot sun on my skin. When I was younger I’d take the sun and bask in it for hours — but now in my late 40s I generally avoid too much sun due to its deleterious effects.

I took my 20yr old daughter and wife to play and was really excited since we haven’t played in months. Usually we go for tennis; but we’ve been absent from that too — busy with life and all sorts of distractions.

Ten minutes into the 2 on 1 match, me dominating them, my knee gave out and now I’m hobbled. I probably have a small tear and it’s preventing me from twisting my knee. I can walk at about 1mph and feel generally stupid for injuring myself in a sport most preferred by geriatrics.

As a boy I’d swing from trees like an ape, play baseball 7 days a week, tackle football without equipment on the concrete, and a varying assortment of running games with my friends. Now I can’t even maneuver 3 ft to my left at 10% speed without injury.

There is an old saying that applies here “youth is wasted on the young.” And I know I’m not “old” per se — but I was younger once and I can tell you that I much prefer to be younger than wiser.

You hate to see it you bastards; but you cannot stop me. You try to stop me — but it inevitably fails. I get it — it’s annoying to see someone, such as myself, sashay through every god damned market with ease and poise — and yet there you are fucked in your lowly positions and confused about what to do next.

Let me show you something now.

Here is the industry page inside Cocklabs and what it basically is telling you is all of the coolest and best “hot stocks” got blown the fuck out today. Before you head off making assumptions, I will tell you that more than 200 stocks fell more than 5% today. It was a drubbing for anyone stacked with risk and patience.

Does this mean it’s over?

No. It’s just one day. But every market tops the fuck out somewhere. This is as good a place as anywhere else, as Jim Biden cavorts brainlessly sniffing children and ordering American reserves to Europe.

When I said “recourd high” I meant it.

I closed with 10% TZA, 5% UVIX up against what I determine to be a risk averse portfolio stacked with low beta. By the way, this is how I both avoid massive drawdowns and miss out on major rallies. I simply remove risk when things get dicey. More often than not the market rallies huge and we’re back to fresh highs. But sometimes, every so often, PANDEMONIUM busts loose and we dive lower amidst angst and fear. Since I live for those days, I rarely, if ever, miss out on the opportune to get involved on the downside pin action fun.

I will have you know I remain, inexorably, at recourd highs. I sit amongst Kings and hold court viewing jesters fumble over themselves; but know that I act in the concert of Kings and know exactly what I’m doing at all times.

Year to date gains stand at +48%. How can that help you make money from now until forever?

Quite simply, and I mean this sincerely, I never lose. I might go through dry spells of inaction, frustrate those who mirror me with lackluster days when markets are up 1,000 and more. But I never lose.

My recourd speaks for itself.

This is where it started in an experiment testing out the tools inside Stocklabs.

And this is where we’re at, pal.

I hate to come across as scammy — but when talking about money there really isn’t any way of coming across as reposed. But I’m starting a new portfolio at $40k — for more longer term best ideas of mine. Truthfully, I think my sweet spot is tactical trading and intra-day scalps. But I am capable of wearing many hats and will take this on for members only of course.

I’d like to give you free things — but quite frankly giving them to you for free would be like throwing them away. They’re for members only.

I’m 80% cash, 10% TZA +50bps for the session.

A few days following Mark Zuckerberg’s release of Threads, an obvious declaration of war against Twitter and Musk, Elon released revenues shares with content creators — much to the delight of everyone who bothered to upgrade to Twitter blue and produce popular content.

?BREAKING: Twitter Monetization For Creators Is REAL?

I just received my first ad revenue payment from Twitter.

1st check = $10K (!!!)

I would typically never share personal financial info but creators need to know that @elonmusk means BUSINESS supporting the creator economy pic.twitter.com/JliTBR2LkG

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) July 13, 2023

FULL TRANSPARENCY

Minutes after Twitter announced ad revenue payouts, I received this saying I’ll be paid $7,153

For reference, I had 328 million tweet impressions in the last 28 days

These are awesome payout numbers & I encourage every single creator to share their content… pic.twitter.com/BD4O2QaVXE

— Ashley St. Clair (@stclairashley) July 13, 2023

Twitter starting to share ad revenue with creators is a big deal! Looking forward to seeing the evolution of the program over time. https://t.co/WWj2WaRzWo

— Rob Maurer (@TeslaPodcast) July 13, 2023

The net result has been nothing short of euphoria and I’d love to have a look at the Twitter Blue upgrades today, as Zuck melts into a pool of feces and sweat — training for his match to come with Elon at the Roman Colosseum.

It was a colossal asshole move of Meta to enter into the specific space of Elon. These people tend to be spiteful and I suppose that Twitter’s new policy of permitting free speech is a bit too much for those bastards and they’ll do whatever they can, within the means of their influence, to derail Musk.

I am not naive. Elon isn’t perfect. He is just a man and not a God. But he must be protected and supported — because the right to express opinions in a public square that isn’t checked by deranged leftist scum should be a God given right.

We’re doing a special trial offer for Stocklabs tomorrow. Drop your email here to get one.

There was some news out of Ripple land, the crypto, which was a favorable court decision — and it led to COIN and BTC miners lifting off. The overarching them of risk has been rooted, in my belief, in the rise of BTC. When we had the little banking crisis, that cute little panic, a few months back it was BTC that provided safety for a class of investor widely viewed as degenerate.

In spite of govt meddling, BTC is nearing $31k and ETH 2k.

To leverage this move and future moves higher, trader are sopping up shares of MSTR, MARA, RIOT, GREE, CLSK, SDIG, IREN and other smaller miners.

Moving past that, we’ve seen terrific moves in any number of high risk securities, measured by their beta being above 2.

Today, for example, NKLA, QUBT, CDLX, REAL, AFRM and many others are up double digits.

How to find the next one?

The best way to find a winner is to buy what is already working, so strong technicals. Another method is to focus on stocks heavily shorts in very bullish tapes. Another is stocks down big over the past yr, but moving up now. Another is industry focus. If you see solar or oil running — target a basket. There are innumerable ways to trade and trade well. The losing stratagem, ALWAYS, is holding onto stuff not working.

Listen to me: COUNTER-TREND trading isn’t you being smart. That’s you being obstinate, believing your brain is somehow better than the collective. Resistance is futile. Conform.

I have the quant account, which is allocated monthly using the Stocklabs machines. I have my trading account, which is basically me tactically positioning and day trading. And I have a Tesla focus account — which is a monthly allocation into TSLA. What I don’t have is a strategic account that houses some of my conviction ideas — so I am launching one today.

I had an old algo account worth $40k doing nothing so I figured I’d start this one with some of my best ideas. This will be easy to follow, since I intend to hold stocks for at least a week, possibly months. The account can go long or short — but will not day trade. This account will be designed and managed in a professional manner, with 5% allocations — perhaps maxing out at 10% per stock.

Part of my issue with my trading account is I sell stuff I like in order to book profits and raise cash. This is something I continuously do out of nervousness. But this account will have rules and the money is a lot smaller, so I can stick to my convictions a lot longer.

Let’s see how fucking Mr. Fancy Pants high returns, stock trade extraordinaire can do in a setting, such as this one.

NOTE: We are doing a very special trial offer for Stocklabs tomorrow. If interested, drop your email here.