I’d like to inform you that I am greatly outperforming you today, up 1.18% in a day racked by indecision and losses. We are in an asset bubble, Sir. All of what you see in front of you is fantasy.
Let me elaborate something of importance for you.
Mag 7 or FAG10 stocks are up 15% in 2024.
HOWEVER, 100 high beta stocks are down 8%.
Low Beta risk averse stocks are up 7%.
What does it mean?
It means gains are concentrated in a few stocks and if you’re not in these stocks — you are RACKED WITH LOSSES. The easy money has been made in grocery store/risk averse stocks. When the party ends, and it will, your FAG10 stocks will collapse without warning — as plebs scramble frantically to exit — tripping over each other and falling off the side into vats of boiling magma. It’s important that I warn you of what awaits you for when it happens you cannot say that I did not warn you.
All that aside, markets look fine. Earnings have been good. Unemployment is low. Everything is good, up until when you realize $NVDA is worth more than the entire Chinese stock market and Canadian economy. Asset bubbles are hard to pop and time but when they do pop and collapse — the exits will always be unceremonious and catastrophic.
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I still comment here as if I were in the ’08 Blogspot days when Le Fly drove around and ate 2.5″ thick ribeyes. Now we must settle for grain finished micro needled roadkill.
Off to slay a dragon
Like a fire breaking out in a movie theatre. True to form Fed tightening is being ignored this time again. The narrative is too seductive as you observe your friends getting rich, it makes it irresistable to join. Maybe you sold early and now have to buy back in, and so forth.
But as AI has been around for decades, this is but a parlour game enhancement for the masses, something to augment social media and cause more degeneracy to prevail and hold people ever closer to their smart phones.