iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,376 Blog Posts

Taking the Side of The Devil: America is Stronger Than Ever

Much of the shit discussed on this fucking blog is about “Pax Americana” ending and us being on the other side of the wind — ebbing towards perdition. I’d like to take a more optimistic view of things today, if only to challenge myself into thinking critically. Much too often traders get bogged down in ideology and they get harangued by it because egotism breeds failure. Pride always comes before the fall.

For this exercise, I am using data compiled by Stocklabs — my data analytics and trading room company. Feel free to join — all of the profits go towards a very good cause: me and my desire to build an Orbital Space Cannon (OSC).

Largest companies by sector
Tech: $AAPL
Services: $AMZN
Industrials: $DHR
Healthcare: $LLY
Consumer Goods: $TSLA
Financials: $V
Basic Materials: $XOM
Utilities: $NEE

A fine portfolio, you must admit. If you simply bought the above 8 stocks your returns YTD would be +35%. Three year return +86% vs +33% for the NASDAQ.

For those companies, revenues TTM are +15%, earnings +52%. Business has never been better.

While it’s true, US corporations have roughly $20T in debt — one doesn’t need to concern oneself with suchness whilst stocks are near 52 week highs. Business is good and it’s gonna stay that way. If you don’t like it, move to Africa.

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BRACE FOR IMPACT

I went to water my lawn because it just got aerated and seeded and came back to gains HALVED in spite of the market closing near the lows. For context, I had some low beta stocks and hedges in $SQQQ and $SOXS. Needless to say, I am greatly chagrined by the resultant gains of just +22bps, down from the highs of +58bps before I went out to water the lawn.

For the month, I am up more than 1%, which is good considering stocks shed 3% this week alone.

In a little bit, I will venture off to buy some compost, peat moss, and top soil in order to fortify my lawn. I bought this house last year and the soil is horrible and shallow. I will introduce some ammonia nitrate, compost, and some high quality seed shortly.

Next week I fully anticipate a forlorn CNBC, as markets enliven and panic lower. Presently, the hedge funds believe we go up. If you press them why, like children they simply say “just because.” There is never coherent statements from them and can barely offer basic facts about the economy and why stocks belong higher. These people manage your money and will keep buying dips until they’re punished and their jobs are threatened.

When they begin to sell and panic, then we can have a bottom in on this market. You do not need to believe some blog by some random angry person; have a look at the VIX sub $14 — laughing in your face as you warn people about the perils of complacency in an economy teetering on the brink of collapse.

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I Happen to be Reading Up On the Roman Empire

A meme made the rounds yesterday featuring a shocked wife speaking about how men think about the Roman Empire every single day. She didn’t think her husband did and so asked him. In her disbelief, she had to come to grips with the fact that he too thought about it, much more often than she’d ever imagined. She regaled her audience with her feelings about it and how Rome never once came into her little cute head.

A great man once said: “women do not care for history because they didn’t make it.”

I happen to be reading about the Roman Empire right now, after 6 consecutive books about the Civil War — Rebel Yell being my favorite.

I will tell you why men like history and think about the Roman Empire. Every man strives to leave his mark during his life and look up to great men who did great things. This all has to do with death and fear of wasting a life. I can only speak from experience, but I am fascinated to understand how things work — the etymology of things and about the people who were unique enough to create things that shaped modern society. A cursory look at Rome will show you their civilization, born over 2,000 years ago, was much more advanced than the vast majority of countries today. This is not by happenstance but instead the result of intelligent men who were impassioned by an ideal much greater than their own caprices.

My favorite depiction of Rome on Tv is the early aughts hit Rome on HBO.

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The Primary Trend is At Risk of Being Lower

For much of 2023 my modus operandi has been to protect account with hedges — but not too big — since the goal was to eventually buy dips. This was rooted in the fact that the market trend had been up. With the market harangued lower again, down for two months straight, there is a risk for the primary trend to switch from up to down. I won’t bother drawing lines on a fucking chart; you’ll just have to trust me on this one.

If we tank anther 5% of so from here, expect to see live Centaurs on the NYSE rampaging through a sea of traders — kicking bulls into their chests and faces — bringing calamity and misery to all those seeking to, dare I say, compound their returns.

God willing, you’ll be compounding losses soon — as all of the roosters and the fucking chickens come home to die.

I am however open to the idea we rally too.

Happy Friday trading.

I’m +36bps in light trading, thanks to my smart shorts.

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Pressing Shorts into Deeply Oversold Territory is Retarded

Over in Stocklabs we analyze the markets using mean reversion algorithms. I don’t feel like providing you fuckers with a sales pitch — so I will just show you the graph.

That’s oversold for the $IWM. Those signals had been repeated for the past week. Ergo, if you sold short into that you were retarded. The Russell moved +1.5% today, giving the bulls a hope for a brighter future. I managed a gain of +37bps — because I am professionally trained and not emotional. I take sober and measured steps and only really expose myself when feeeeeeeeeling gregarious. Needless to say, I am in no mood for liberal candor.

My Quant jumped 1.1% due to the very heavy weightings in oil stocks. With WTI boosted and heading to $100, you need to keep an eye on those oils and also inflation.

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My Take on the Recent Development in the Russian-Ukraine War

First I want to address the recent $NYT article in which it plainly states Russia is producing artillery shells at 7x the rate of the US. This is true. Now I know what we, as Americans, are trained to believe.

“Nothing is made here BUT weapons and we have lots of it because we allocate so much money to it.”

Are you sure about that?

Here’s what we actually spend the $727b+ per year on.

$291b on operation and maintenance — including military operations such as training and planning, maintenance of equipment, and most of the military healthcare system.

$181 billion on pay for soldiers and retirement benefits.

$136 billion goes towards procurement or actual manufacturing of weapons.

$107b goes to research and development

We have sent Ukraine about $150b worth of weapons and material so far, more or less 1 year’s worth of domestic military production. Since we’ve had this bloated budget from the time when the towers fell on 9/11, we have amassed quite the stockpile — which we are drawing from to help Ukraine fight.

But we are not outproducing Russia and our contractors are paid much more than what Russia is paying. In order to get on proper war footing, we’d have to TRIPLE procurement, if not more, allocating another trillion per year towards defense.

The pro Russian folks on Twitter, all of whom I like very much, make endless excuses for the frozen conflict in the Ukraine. They say stuff like “Putin is holding back” or “wait until Russia really fights.” I believe this is folly. The Russians would annihilate Ukraine if they could — but they can’t. My evidence is the frozen conflict, something I can see.

Playing devils advocate, perhaps Russia is anticipating a major escalation with the west and is holding their reserves for a much wider conflict. If so, that still means it is a frozen conflict. If this were a chess match, the west has Russia’s queen cornered, unable to move.

On the other hand, Ukraine has zero chance at winning and is being mass murdered by both the Russians and Zelensky.

I have an extremely cynical view on this war and believe the west WANTS Ukrainian soldiers to die en masse as part of of depopulation scheme to rid it from a nazi ideology — tricked into nationalistic fervor. I can see how the average Ukrainian soldier can get caught up in loving his country and wanting to kill the Russians. But with over 400,000 Ukrainians dead, it seems any victory you might achieve is pyrrhic since all of your men are dead and will have to be replaced by the Africans.

The Russians haven’t deterred the west from doing anything significant for a number of reasons.

1. It’s easier to fight Ukraine armed by the US than fighting Ukraine armed by the US and also fighting all of NATO.
2. They have no nukes. Nukes aren’t real. Grow up.
3. Putin has yet to mobilize for a pan European war in the hopes of bleeding Ukraine out to the point of capitulation.

The rationale for helping Ukraine is of course rooted in ironic Hitler 2.0 fears. If we do not stop Putin, he will march to Paris — just like Hitler. It’s ironic since no nation hated Hitler more than Russia and also because the west regularly reminds us how inept the Russian army is. If they’re inept, they cannot march to Paris. You cannot have it both ways.

But there is some truth perhaps in what the west is warning about — but for different reasons. They have provoked Russia to the point it would be rational for them to declare war on multiple European states. After all, supporting Ukraine in the manner they’re doing in any timeline throughout history would be akin to a declaration of War. Whether the cause is just or not, NATO has declared war on Russia and it would not be far fetched to believe Russia might, after they succeed in Ukraine, seek revenge on nations who helped kill their soldiers.

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OMG – I Love Inflation

So it looks like oil is going over $100 again and we haven’t even begun to think about what it means. What’s also happening now is the US 10yr is +4bps accompanied by a rally in the Russel. This cannot and will not stand.

Over at iBankcoin we LOVE inflation. When I say “we” I mean it in the Royal sense, since it’s just me.

See with inflation we get higher gas prices and with higher gas I get to enjoy less traffic because the Oliver Anthony’s of the world can’t afford to just sit there in traffic. Those fuckers are off somewhere with a banjo singing songs.

You have to understand, I have no sympathy for the poor or fats. Both of those things are within your control. Stop being a pussy, feeling sorry for yourselves.

I was going to say “hey this is America — you can just rob a bank now” — but that’s wrong and I don’t condone degenerate behavior any sort, including excessive booze or any form of mind altering drugs.

Look here Jack, the market is going to snap in half within a year. All of this Biden business and his super genius economic strategy of eating iced cream with aviator glasses on cannot last.

Yesterday I said I was bullish. I actually said I was a “tranny-bull” but I was making up my own truth. I am able to do that here, creative license, because why the hell not!

I fucking hate the market at these prices and want them lower.

I had a really bullish book this morning but have been tapering it down and now posses a little $SOXS. I view the bounce in the $IWM as inevitable and won’t be stupid enough to lean hard in either direction. My plan is for a slow grinding assault on this tape, which is preferable for me as I don’t like to trade in annoying chop. I will, however, bulk up my bets as my conviction grows.

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BULLED THE FUCK UP

At around 3:15pm I saw myself sliding back into olde habits, taking stops on longs and bulking up on $TZA and $LABD. At one point, after had declared to be a tranny-bull, I was 28% short. I quickly disposed of those rascals for profit and bulked the fuck up on America — because we’ve got enemies to kill and/or maim and I am here to profit from it.

This might sound profoundly distasteful to many of you, some random guy on the internet declaring profiteering off war, a wanton disregard for life and peace. That’s right — who can fucking stop me?

Look at me sideways and I’ll have my friends at NATO shove an ATACMs right into your fucking driveway.

Life as an imperialist American is better than ever. We’ve got the poors on the ropes, knifing each other into faces — at the same time grabbing European clay for both sport and profit — without spending any American lives. Think about the grandness of it. Please do not get mad at me for being honest. Many of my compatriots feign concern and hide their motives. I am just here to collect money, toss it away and never look at it again. Knowing the money is there is a great comfort to me and whenever I am given the chance to extract more — I do so.

I closed 104% leveraged long in a pastiche of quality stocks. I am a reformed bull, whose allegiance to peace and justice has since been incinerated before my new pagan idols in exchange for whatever I am now — which varies on a day by day basis.

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WE ARE BULLS NOW

For as long as I can remember, I’ve been dreaming about the market’s collapse. I’d think about it all the time and get excited whenever it went down for a few days. But those days are now over and I’ve decided to become a Democrat Ukraine supporter, advocate for TRANS RIGHTS, and be a generally highly vaccinated/ highly compliant $NYT reading person.

My favorite shows are on MSNBC and since I’ve taken on this new life — I’ve already been invited to three charitable cocked tailed parties — two at a museum and one inside of a library where we will discuss BANNED LGBTQ books. Dinner is $1500 a plate and the causes range from white supremacy to LGBTQ rights to climate emergencies racking the planet with sweltering heat.

After all, I was never going to beat them with my snarky tweets and hateful blog posts. This way, I’ll fit right in and perhaps earn some positive accolades for all of my good will and gestures.

Markets are calm now, just like my white suburb, -19bps.

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Giving Up on Doom

I hate to quit on your mid-stroke (pause) — but no matter what happens this market doesn’t seem to want lower. We had HOT inflation data and saw a nice and beautiful morning collapse — but zero follow through and now we are barreling up like fat trannies rolling into the wrong bathrooms.

Luckily for me, I am very smart. I got the hell out from my shorts and longs and called it even down 5bps. I now have resorted to minor acts of depravity, long $TSLL and $ADBE. I am also TRAPPED in $ALNY, which is HALTED FOR TRADING pending an FDA review. I am almost certain I am doomed there.

Name a more meaningless organization than the paper shovelers at the FDA.

My recent avocations include reading another Tolstoy book, The Cossacks. All proper tools of Putin need to read Tolstoy at all times. I’ve also found both sadness and merriment in all of the recent migrant crossings. I just spotted one in an island off the coast of Italy where almost 10,000 Africans escaped their hell holes in an effort to live with the whites they hate most. After the whites move away, they will follow them wherever they might go, in order to receive scornful racism and resentment largess.

I have a traveling rule that I stick to. If your civilization hasn’t figured out clean drinking water, I have negative interest in seeing your ruins. If you have clean drinking water, I’d like to see your ruins.

Anyway, markets look constructive, dare I say. Back to work.

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