Tricky Morning Tape

I was awoken to the sounds of triumph. My concoction of longs and shorts producing a symphony of beautiful music. For whatever reason, markets bid up large cap tech like $NFLX $AMZN and $CRM, whilst ravaging small caps.

Select oils traded up as oil itself traded down and volatility compressed lower. I had been up more in the pre market but settled my affairs +55bps at around 10am, just before markets truly took a sharp turn higher, once again tricking me into some longs. It soon COLLAPSED on me like cheap lawn chairs, at which point I churned myself and now only have shorts and barely any gains, +15bps.

This is a somber story so far, about a man attempting to preside over the fall of western finance as we know it. The allure of stocks and their proclivity to both trick and fool — keep me on edge. You never can tell if the Fed will come out and Jimmy the NASDAQ higher by 300, foiling all plans to crush the markets.

Being a bear is a very tumultuous and contentious job — but I feel that I’m up for the task.

Breadth is at a paltry 40%, but not terrible. SAAS and FANG stocks are strong, while biotech and everything else weak. My shorts are $TZA and $SOXS — because weakness is found in the small caps today and fuck the semiconductors.

The war in Israel is on the verge of spilling into neighboring Lebanon, at which point one could presume Iran will get involved in a tangible way. Under this pressure, it’s hard to see how the governments of Egypt and Jordan can remain friendly to Israel, in spite of how many dollars we send their way. Israeli relations with its neighbors have been set back 40 years in recent weeks — and in that regard — the attacks by Hamas was successful.

We now find ourselves, as Americans, on the verge of committing to a fully industrialized war in Ukraine against Russia and a new one against Iran. Our capacity to undertake both wars is possible — but not under present conditions — which is why I believe the government will adopt a war time economy of production and perhaps the first peace time military draft since world war 2.

People who think these are crazy ideas are not looking at the dwindling stockpiles and lack of men in the military, a vast emptiness of capabilities produced by decades of supremacy. The world is changing now and the great industrial might we once enjoyed has been given to China. The idea we could fend off a Chinese attack on Taiwan, Russians in Ukraine, and Iran in Israel all at once, given our paltry means of production, is performative art.

Markets have been pricing in this gloom for the better part of the last three months — you chose not to listen. As you survey the rubble of your portfolio and wonder where it all went long — know this: You are stupid from birth and didn’t have any choice in the matter. Feel free to prance about in your rainbow uniforms and uphold the depraved elements of our society as serious people attempt to fix what they know is broken.

For the session, I enacted revenge and netted +123bps, in aggressively sized positions — betting against the market and long volatility, war, gold, and oil.

My prediction for wayward downside action immediately, followed by a selling crescendo and panic. America is in crisis and there is nothing you can do to stop it.

Listen up Jack —

Aside from $GOOGL, $ADBE and a few large oil and gas stocks, I cannot, for the life of me, find a bull market.

SO WHERE THE FUCK IS IT?

I hope you realize that 2022 was DOWN 35% and if we blow 2023 and plunge into the final months of the year — hell will break loose across the landscape. I’m not sure what that means or why I said it — but I like the way it sounded.

All I want is for a 50% cut in home prices, unemployment ratcheted up to 12%, and municipal cash calls with a stock market back down to 2008 lows. Is that too much to ask?

Fortune smiled upon me this morning, so I took it. I cleaned out my account, both shorts and longs, and netted 78bps. I decided to walk away from the computer and the market shenanigans — but to come back for the late afternoon session in order to extend my returns and prepare for tomorrow.

Whilst you might be elated to see markets lower, there isn’t anything significant about October so far. Both the NASDAQ and $SPY are higher and the $IWM is off by 2%. However, we do have the US 10yr climbing to a terminal level of 5%, now at 4.88%. And we are seeing gold breakout, which is always a sign of looming doom. But I cannot be a serious person and at the same time tell you markets are heaving over to crash, while all dips are bought and shares of $GOOGL remain, obstinately, near highs.

Listen to me —

I will not mince words or waste time to elaborate exactly what my stated mission is to do during this lifetime. The semiconductors crushed me again — this time on the long side. I entered into the session long the semis for a trade and was forced out at an egregious loss — only to bear witness to it climb almost all the way back to breakeven before once against descending lower into the hot oils.

My crusade is a blood feud and although I have just 5% of my book short the semiconductors, I will never forget this day — when Joe Fucking Biden banned sales of AI chips to China to coincide with my long position — I knew then and there what my purpose was and it is to preside over the total annihilation and destruction of the semiconductors.

Just before the market close, the war in Israel escalated, as Two American aircraft carrier strike groups consisting of over 200 warships and 10,000 American servicemen loom in the Mediterranean. Whilst this is happening, Putin met with the President of China — further solidifying their alliance in opposition of American hegemony.

It’s all happening now and although the transgendered bulls prance about the market without a care in the world — a great doom beckons — a domino effect that will entangle all people making you rue the day when all you had to worry about was psychopathic people telling you to inject your babies with poisonous flu vaccines.

I ended the session down 80bps, forlorn and downcast — melancholy over the what could have beens and the dreams shattered before me. I used this energy and turned it into anger apply this animus as a motive to inflict harm upon the people I hate. Right now, I hate the people who work inside the foundries and the people who make my computer go faster. I hate the gamers and the Bitcoin miners and anyone else who relies upon the evil incarnate semiconductor cabal.

I seek vengeance and resolution and have grown weary of waiting for my fortunes to turn. I’ve been flat to down in this market for the better part of the last 3 months; but it feels like forever. Good people deserve good things and I am the best person that I know. So it would be a terrible sacrilege to deprive me of my rights, by natural law, and I shall work harder now to attain it.

The news of the Biden regime restricting sales of chips to China hit me directly in the nuts, as I happened to be long SOXL into the open. I ended up booking the loss to start of my day over a cup of coffee. I also took losses in other stocks, bought a few others, did a general reshuffling and added a hedge. In short, I am off 77bps at the open and it’s all Biden’s fault.

A few things to consider this morning:

Iran is threatening Israel

Ukraine hit a Russian airbase with American long range ATACMs

Hungary’s Orban met with Putin in China

Putin is meeting with Xi

Biden is heading to Israel

War looms

The NASDAQ is off by 175, but small caps are up because the losses are concentrated in large cap exporters, whereas the small caps are mostly domestic. Nonetheless, expect the selling to accentuate and exaggerate into the afternoon session.

My book, for the record, is mostly long with a 16% $FNGD hedge, allocated in defense, oils and several higher beta stocks just in case we rally.

I left the session in a fully long book, capitulated to the trans-gendered bulls. How else would you expect me to comport myself in a tape as ribald as this one — as markets dance atop an endless array of sharpened blades? It has, the market, all of the hallmarks, all of the tenets of disaster — yet remains afloat like a giant blimp atop a war zone with structures collapsing on all sides.

Pax Americana started its expeditious retreat after the JFK assassination. Some might argue we lost World War 2, after surveying the landscape of America today — a bloated and sinful land of caitiffs and swindlers who only care about profit — zero regard for the people who built this nation from the marshes and swamps it once was — inhabited a long time ago by nomadic morons.

A great fall is coming — but perhaps not tomorrow. My zealotry for resolution is only checked by my insatiable greed — for knowledge and for coin. I chanced upon the stock market as a venue to express my intellect — navigating the interminable waters in a life long journey to make a difference.

The whole point of this is to matter, after all. Some of us live 100 years without this desire and it befuddles me to know that there are people out there amongst me who simply do not care. I care about everything, even things that I sometimes get wrong. I feel a great wave of prosperity for me is not too far in the future and I’ve always felt this way before enjoying a modicum of success.

The world is both terrible and beautiful — graceful and filled with evil. We all have choices, whether to side with the light or the dark. Some of us do not know the difference, sometimes at no fault of our own. We are subjugated in a whirlwind of lies and misdirection — meandering truths hidden in the crevices of governmental offices who just want to get away with the things they want to get away with.

To be good is to be happy, but naturally, and to both protect and enhance our people as a species to new levels of wealth and health. Anything that works against these things aren’t in our best interest. Freedom is an inherent right of all men and those who wish to take that from you are usually checked by violence.

I’d like to complain about the market today — but no one likes a whining little bitch. I’ve been distracted by other things, worldly events, partaking in some reading on a scale you couldn’t even fathom.

It seems the Russians are on the move again in the Ukraine with a major offensive underway. At the same time Israel is pausing their offensive into Gaza. Perhaps the deliberate pause has something to do with munition shortages from the US to Israel — all thanks to Ukraine?

Today Zelensky’s request to visit Israel was REJECTED. Of course who the hell does he think he is placing his plight on par with Israel — a great power who is interested in material help now — not platitudes by some piece of shit in search of limelight? The idea Zelensky would even attempt to visit Israel must have Bibi in such a fury, he might attack Ukraine himself.

Just kidding, since Israel helped train Ukraine’s freshies and provide them with military equipment.

Speaking of which, artillery shortages in the west are at dire low levels. If Israel were to fight a large scale war with Hamas and Hezbollah, there is a 100% chance munitions will run low unless Biden and his team of fanatical idiots produced more — which they cannot — naturally.

It’s all coming to a nice head now and soon we might see the fruits of Biden’s idiocy laid bare. Meanwhile, stocks are up. I am positioned for it and look forward to the market providing me with some extra money.

Permanent bears are crying into their dresses this morning, as stocks extricate themselves from the confines of reason. We’re shooting higher in spite of looming world war —- and in spite of America being run by a dementia riddles cartoon character.

We have oil down and yields sharply higher. Bitcoin soaring and volatility collapsing. It is for all intents and purposes a risk on session.

How to play it if you’re a permanent bear.

Don’t be stupid and blend in. Parade alongside the bulls and waive their rainbow colored flags and when they least expect it — BAM — create a noose with it and hang them where they stand.

I closed out my hedge at the open, now only long with 44% cash — pretending to parade and be happy about all of the splendor and celebrations, easily smiling at my fellow bulls on the outside but with murderous schemes on the inside.

If you sold the $IWM in February and never looked back, that was the high water mark for 2023. Everyone has been TRANSFIXED by $NVDA and the mega capped weighted NASDAQ — but the real essence of stocks lies in the Russell 2000. If you would take out your monocles and peer at the graph below — you’d see we touched those Feb highs again in late July-early August and have since descended into hell once more.

Some might argue we are ebbing here and sky is the limit — similar to when the $IWM languished in May, marooned in mediocrity whilst $META surged ahead — as they viciously combatted fake news and other important matters for the state.

But we have no way of knowing if this is the bottom and must assume the current trend will prevail into November and beyond — perhaps forever. For all we know, this might be the top of tops — markets may never achieve these levels again and we’ll soon swing lower into an apocalyptic doom — featured with but not limited to LOOTERS cascading into Target clad in Palestinian flags removing inventory from the storage facilities, loading them into their tractor trailers for redistribution amongst the Amazon shopper class.

There is but one vestige of true American nationalism left and that’s amongst southern whites, who mostly manifest themselves to be the God fearing patriots intent on keeping America safe and free. In the coming years I suspect these dangerous ideas will be rooted out and freshly minted migrants dispatched to replace them, or at least marginalize the sons of NB Forrest and Robert E. Lee.