More Upside Ahead — Tired of Talking

I just got back from driving for two hours and talking and talking and talking and debating and debating and I feel like my fucking head is going to explode.

I bowed out from trading the last 2-3hrs of the day, closing up just 36bps — down from the session highs of +130bps. Make that two days in a row when I rather enjoyed good returns only to give them back in lackluster and abject stupid into the close.

HENCEFORTH: I will sell all of my stocks after achieving +1% gains, until this market improves. It should be noted, there is further upside ahead — into the terminal death of the entire economy. I am hedged, so my beta is low and my balls are small. I wanted to be brave — but I had to drive for 2 to 3 fucking hours to talk and babble about utter fucking nonsense.

I stand before you small people +80bps, leveraged long. I had to take out and shoot my hedges earlier, all for obscene losses — because the market only wants, for whatever reason, to go higher. We can hem and haw about it — think about ways and reasons for stocks to COLLAPSE and bring about the apocalypse. But, for now, she wants higher.

I have been particularly interested in the “white economy” due to so much shrinkage taking place inside urban centers and the stores that festoon them.

Take for example shares of $COST: very nice and cheap — as opposed to $TGT. Don’t get me wrong — I like Target and view the shares as historically cheap. But it’s not part of the ‘white economy’ anymore and as soon as they stock up on Xmas presents, BAM!, shrinkage of monumental scale will occur. The same goes for $BBY and $WMT.

But Costco is big and has a very ominous feel to it, especially if you’re a looter. You might get the sense that once inside taking chickens, the doors will shut down and kill teams will be dispatched to exterminate you with the lights out. Not a good feeling, I could imagine.

The other white stocks worth looking at are $ANF, barely any looters go there because it’s very gay and very white. Other names include $THO, $TSCO and $CHDN — all places that if attempting to steal from you will likely understand the 2nd amendment intimately.

Markets are climbing. All aboard.

You should’ve seen me out there — glistening in the sun — trading like the wind with strong strides and powerful motions. People would get in my way and I’d decapitate them with one single blow. I had been up in a FULLY LONG book 1.35% at session highs. Earlier in the day I felt the market would collapse; but then changed my mind and bought everything.

My plan worked in a dreamy state and I boasted and bragged about my good fortune at all of my enemies, who are also my subscribers, inside Stocklabs. They were besides themselves in rage, or at least that’s what I wanted to believe. My winning was hurtful to them and when markets started to cascade lower in the final hour, I noticed they felt better. My fortunes soured — gains decreasing to just +54bps by the close.

My response to this selling was more buying, in spite of really hating stocks and all of the pomp around them. And then I had a vision, a rather dark and dreary one, that had me buried in a shallow grave and all of my subscribers laughing at me as they urinated on my cardboard headstone.

So I bought a mammoth $FAZ position to hedge. I now feel better — but know I am 136% leveraged in an array of high risk stocks and one singular hedge that would require a banking collapse to offset any substantial drawdown in stocks tomorrow.

I place myself, hitherto, at the mercy of the Gods.

Hell of a market you have there. It’d be a shame if something happened to it. It’d be a damned shame.

Look on the bright side — the American stock exchange isn’t American anymore. It belongs to a weird cadre of globalist heathens who deserve infamy and persecution. Sure they’re in charge now and are enjoying their time in the sun — but everything fades and also renews. Their symbol of wealth and fame is held up by match stick legs. It dances around wonderfully and mocks those attempting to catch it. The friction it causes, from all of that dancing, will ignite those fucking match sticks and burn this entire son of a bitch down. They will pay for what they’ve done completely and entirely, or nothing will go back to the way it was.

A dark and brooding storm fast approaches — heading right for the dancing match stick fuckers.

The US 10yr is +7bps to 4.63%. WTI is +3.3%. The rally early enjoyed has been ransacked and now barbarian hordes are rampaging, LOOTING EVEN, all of the wonderful returns bulls had achieved for themselves since the beginning of 2023.

We opened up raged higher. A braver man than me would hold and wait for more — but I took my gains and left. I’m 100% cash in my trading account.

I’m bullish, but apprehensive about morning rips, so I guess that makes me pensive. Too many people were TRAPPED long. Those people usually flush out in mornings.

I’ll revisit the tape later.

Meanwhile, I’m still 100% invested long in other accounts, eagerly awaiting more gains.

There’s a lot of chicanery taking place and when you can secure gains relatively easy — take them.

Up 81bps early going.

I spent the whole day finding reason to hate the market. I discovered carnage amidst numerous sectors — dozens of stocks down 15%+ the past week. It all looked very bleak, as if the world were about to end. I’ve felt this way countless times during my trading career. Things always felt bad before they got real good. You never get a sneak peak into tomorrow’s tape and more often than not the ugliest closes leads to a ripper of an open.

Set aside the news for a moment. This is the way price action behaves via human behavior.

We trend follow and when it stops working we grow obstinate until we cannot hold out and then we sell. After enough selling, we panic and sell more and sell short. Two out of ten times these bouts of panic precede actual bad news. We saw this during the COVID breakout, 2008 financial crisis, and all the way back during the dot com collapse. But more often than not, short term squalls are met with flush outs and rippers to the upside.

So I did what I didn’t want to do most: I closed out my shorts, bulked up on longs, and will now wait for markets to punish me. I closed down 49bps mostly due to being impatient with a large $UVIX position that I closed out this morning. I do expect markets to open lower and might use my 22% cash to either hedge or buy more. I am, however, reticent to short into this hole — knowing full well that once the psychology of down stocks breaks up there will be a fierce buying frenzy to the upside.

Understand something, this doesn’t make me bullish — but merely a greedy man in search of bounty — attempting, if you will, one last gambit on the upside before it all comes crumbing down on Joe Biden’s fucking head.

I am keeping this 100% business because I have questions about what I am seeing here. We now find ourselves at the familiar crossroads of fate. Is this sell of a buying opp or a prelude of something much more severe to come.

I want to highlight a few things here.

1 Mo losses:

$AAPL -3%
$MSFT -3%
$GOOGL -1%
$AMZN -4%
$NVDA -0.6%

On the other hand…

$NKE -17%
$BA -17%
$RTX -18%
$SCHW -17%
$USB -16%

And more…

1 week losses

$MARA -30%
$CHWY -27%
$JBLU -25%
$ILMN -23%
$SQ -22%
$SHOP -21%

Shares of $ETSY typifies the type of action we’ve been seeing as of late.

Taking into consideration seasonal factors, this is somewhat expected in September, especially with Biden at the helm and just about everything else going wrong with Pax Americana. On the other hand, we have a stubborn, an almost surreal obstinance, in the tera cap stocks — whereby hedge funds keep piling into $AAPL and $AMZN in the hopes of preserving gains in a market clearly spiraling lower.

If you look at the data, this from Stocklabs, “all stocks” are down 8.1% over the past month and down 7% over the past 12 months. We’re down on every time frame expect 3 years — all thanks to the trillion dollar market capped rally of 2023. But everything else has been left behind — somewhat stereotypical of modern day America.

I’m actually waiting for a bounce. As you know, I’m a bit of a bull myself. I do fashion myself to be something of an opportunist and really just want to oversee the betterment of me.

Early going, stocks are fucking careening lower. We have the NASDAQ greater than 100, this time with rates dropping a little. It just goes to show you how they’re now fucking with you.

Small caps are strongest, alongside biotech — which is up.

We had a few early green candles, fooling people back in, and then thr Guillotine came down hard and now traders are reeling, unsure as to what to do.

I’ll tell you what to do.

Get small, buy a hedge, and wait for those sons a bitches to rally the market again. They always do it. They cannot help themselves. I’ve been watching it closely for decades and always notice they rally it most when you least expect it. The only way to play it, if you’re not day trading, is to just wait it out.

Naturally you don’t want to own piece of shit stocks otherwise you might be “waiting it out” with nothing left. No, you need to own good stocks.

Over in Stocklabs, we are very oversold and have been for a week. These sort of oversold conditions always lead to a grandiose rally — something to make bears rue the day they were conceived.

If by 12:30pm markets haven’t rallied, you might want to start to panic.

A few days ago the Fed announced a new treasury buy back program. All of the early 2023 bank failures had to do with holding low coupon treasuries in a fast moving higher yield environ. Losses were and still are astronomical.

Most estimates place bank losses at around $2t. But are they really losses? No. If they hold until duration the government will make them whole. But they’ll need to wait a long fucking time for that to happen. In the meantime, capital will be constrained because their balance sheets are shredded.

The solution, naturally, is for the Fed to buy back low coupon bonds and issue higher yielding ones. This way, the Fed gets to eat their losses, pay the banks a much higher rate of return, and enjoy their post Fed jobs at one of those illustrious institutions.

If you’re waiting for a bank collapse based off those treasury holdings, forget it. We might get some small bankruptcies and minor fracas, but on the whole the only way banks will face severe dislocation is via the customer. If unemployment spikes and delinquencies rise, then we might see a real banking collapse.

The game is rigged in favor of status quo. Those in a position to profit from this may do so. Others who are not afforded the luxury of liquidity watch in horror as scam after scam occur making the worst people richer.

I closed -14bps in a hedged book, heavy shorts on the banks and some long VIX exposure.

One chief complaints I’ve heard about my trading is the difficulty in which it is to follow. One hour I’m short and the next I’m long. Typically I’d toss these complaints into the trash where they belong. However, being the charitable person that I am, I considered this to be a novel challenge for me. So, effective immediately, I’ll taper down my activity to be less of a day trading morass and more of a coherent methodical direction when executing trades.

Today’s tape would be very bullish if not for the fact that rates have soared again. The drug addicts are already saying stuff like “rates don’t matter bro” and they’re happy as pigs in slop. But maybe there is a modicum of truth to this lazy way of thinking. After all, the housing market is dead from fall to winter and rates aren’t too important until next year. Ergo, markets don’t seem concerned about it now.

But is this retarded way of thinking dangerous? YES! You forget the balance sheets of banks own a ton of treasuries and those fucks are down to 50 cents on the dollar now. We are steaming towards a banking crisis.

Meanwhile, at least for now, markets look constructively bullish.