GOLDMAN PROJECTS WORST GDP DECLINE IN HISTORY; GOLDMAN BEING COURTED TO OVERSEE BAILOUT

Lots of shit to go through, headlines that leaked out sneakily last night.

MNUCHIN COURTS GOLDMAN TO OVERSEE $200B BAILOUT.

Mnuchin was a partner at Goldman, just like Dad. Now he’s tapping them for the bailout. While Goldman is more than capable, it doesn’t seem right.

WHITE HOUSE ECONOMIC ADVISER KUDLOW SAYS SENATE PACKAGE BEING NEGOTIATED WOULD BE WORTH MORE THAN $2 TRILLION

Everyone is getting bailed out, from airlines to restaurants, even Fintech firms want govt tit.

Before Fed Acted, Leverage Burned Hedge Funds in Treasury Market

Basis traders were borrowing as much as 50 times their wagers

ExodusPoint, LMR Partners among the losers in popular trade

The firms use borrowed money from the repurchase market for the popular basis trade, which exploits price differences between cash Treasuries and futures. Leveraged funds’ exposure to the basis strategy could be as much as $650 billion, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said.

ZH out with a big story, highlighting a highly 50x leveraged trade that was done in recent years that could be the cause of the Fed intervention. Hint: another bailout.

The Federal Reserve is already about halfway done in a single week with at least $700 billion of bond purchases to provide emergency liquidity to financial markets, delivering a clear sign that it could blow past that marker.

That was fast. More BRRRRRRRRRRRrrrr.

Goldman Sachs economists forecast a historically sharp and swift recession, with second-quarter GDP sinking a stunning 24% after a 6% decline in the first quarter.

-24% seems rather conservative. On the other side of this, Goldman is projecting +12% for Q3.

DJ SOLOMON FROM $GS GETS 20% RAISE IN SALARY TO $27.5m

DJ Sol earned the big bucks in 2019. Should we now take away his earnings in 2020?

Three things I am interested in the week to come.

1. What happens to high yield debt, now that WTI is below $20?
2. What happens to leveraged loans, now that the c0mplex is blown out? Most of these loans are bullshit CLOs that are ‘covenant light.’
3. Does the rate of change of infected people in America and Europe dissipate or hockey stick?

That’s all that matters now. I strongly advise you to ignore the advice from your fee based financial advisors and go to cash. You go to cash, not because you think stocks are expensive and go lower — but because you’re unsure what the future holds. You cannot invest on a model that shows -24% GDP with the entire globe on shut down. There is perma-bull and then delusional. You can always buy back later, EVEN AT HIGHER PRICES — god forbid.

I am sick of the commentary on CNBC. It’s hurting investors and keeping them long equities into what could be the worst financial crisis ever. We are looking down the barrel of -80% decline in business. Bridgewater, giant hedge fund run by intelligent people, project a loss of $4 trillion in business in America alone.

It’s over.

It’s over.

It’s over.

I did a lot of things today, but settled on a 2x FAZ position rolling into total lockdown. Lots of credit conditions are beyond scary. Oil got face fucked for -20% peak to trough today — setting the stage of a complete meltdown in HY bonds. The Fed is now printing money (BRRRRRRRR) to buy munis, in order to keep cities afloat. The whole scheme is treacherous and this is happening because the conditions to expose our weakness was there before the virus. China didn’t need to send soldiers. They sent tourists and sunk the country — because it was sinkable.

Don’t talk shit if you have a glass jaw.

My advice, buy more toilet paper, lots of food and meds, withdraw cash from the bank, and prepare for the worst times you have ever witnessed.

Today’s closed trades.

NBY +21%
TNA +2.5%
(FAZ -3.8%)
NOVN +37%
(SPCE -8.6%)
CROX +7.3%
(NCLH -12.2%)
(DIN -3.2%)
(CHDN -1.3%)
(MDB -4.5%)
HUBS +1.6%
TEAM +1.2%
(ROKU -3.7%)

Let me give you a sequence of events.

I step into the office (my parlour) and bear witness to NBY sharply lower and TNA higher. I book both and move on. Seeing the market rip, I get a SEVERE case of FOMO. Extreme FAGGOTS of the first order talk scandalous horseshit online, only increasing my FOMO. I bear witness to gains and want to partake.

I have money to burn and cash to spend, so I delve in.

I get into an array of shit — space companies to plague ships. Immediately after I step in, Gov. Cuomo SHUTS IT ALL DOWN. Everyone has to stay inside now. Stocks get BTFO and I begin to regret living.

Instead of HODLing like a millennial edge lord, I sell it all and thank the Gods I made a keen and wise decision to REVENGE TRADE in NOVN — a Nitric Oxide play of degenerate proportions.

I am now 95% cash again, getting FOMO to sell it short and down but decided to write this blog instead in order to distract me.

The net results for today.

NBY +21%
TNA +2.5%
(FAZ -3.8%)
NOVN +37%
(SPCE -8.6%)
CROX +7.3%
(NCLH -12.2%)
(DIN -3.2%)
(CHDN -1.3%)
(MDB -4.5%)
HUBS +1.6%
TEAM +1.2%
(ROKU -3.7%)

Important lesson here.

Yesterday I bough NBY at 0.92 because they announced news of having N95 masks for sale. The stock was already +150% and I felt it could go higher. After I bought it, it ran like the wind and I wad delighted. I had fanciful dreams of myself dining in a deserted French Riviera coastal resort, counting my coin. The stock jumped to $1.75 in the AHs and I warned Exodus members to LEAVE NOW else fall victim to a most heinous crime, should the shares reverse lower the next day.

But I had dreams and those dreams were DASHED AWAY at the fucking rocks of hard knocks. Earlier this morning, I sold my shares, SHARPLY LOWER, in the pre-market, taking just a 21% profit. While handsome, this is not going to get me off the coast of France popping champagne corks. Now I had wanted something different, but I got what I deserved. I sold in the PM because I knew the PLEBS would immediately spill out across the pavement when the market opened and I was right.

I booked the TNA trade for a 2.5% profit this morning and now mostly have cash, waiting for a clear direction from the stock Gods.

Stock futures look great, and I bet many of you believe Le Fly is caught with cock in hand. As usual, you’re wrong. See, yesterday whilst the market was jerking off to the sounds of a FRESH MONEY BEING PRINTED I took a position in TNA and I still hold said position into aforementiond melt up. But if I’m being honest with you, all jokes aside, the market, very soon, will crack asunder turning all of your smiles into frowns. You will once again be CLOWN RAPED amidst a ravaged countryside filled with plague. I do not say these things with a full chest, but you know they are true.

We live in a post technology world now and real life skills are once again important. Soon militias will be formed and then roaming bands of cannibals. You will need to be fit and should stop gouging yourselves with bacon, egg, and cheese bagel sandwiches now, for when the fires burn at their zenith, so will you.

Modus operandi should be to never drink booze, always lift weights, and adhere to a strict diet. STOP HAVING FUN. We don’t have any time for that shit. Life is serious and so is quarantine. Sure you can have fun, but then you’ll die of the plague. Your choice.

I see markets are offering mixed signals. We are long overdue for a string of rallies that lures plebs back into the manifold to once again CLOSE THE BOOK on them for good. But I’d be lying if I said I knew what’s going to happen. Situation is fluid pal; get to work.

OH, and yes, gold is going to catch a bid soon. Now that the ETF retards in JNUG and NUGT have been eliminated from the game of play and every American is going to receive FREE MONEY from the government, I suspect wanton and ruinous treachery and gold to be bid.

Lots of permanent bulls out there talking SHIT after just 1 day up. You know, you deserve to lose it all. You deserve to lose LARGE SUMS of money for your insolence. I am pleased I sold out of my long term accounts and do not have to worry about the tick tock. I have taken direct control and can very easily play the long and short side of the market, based upon real time assessments.

In my opinion, we’ve yet to see the financial ramifications of this scourge.

MAJOR DRAWDOWNS happening in IG and worse in junk. The LSTA leveraged loan index is down more than 17% for the year. That is absolutely ruinous to private equity.

You can trade on the long side and even swing trade; but don’t think for a second this is over.

I took several trades today. Here were my results.

IFMK +32%
FAZ +3.7%
GRIL +23%
GRIL +10%
OSTK +9.4%
(APT -4%)
(APT -14%)
FNGU +2.1%
PRTY +51%
PRTY +21.7%

That’s right, +51% in PRTY. Talk all of the shit you want — but Le Fly cuts your legs off every single time in a stock duel. To that end, I am mostly cash, but of course on the prowl for some end of day rippers.

Happy spring.

NOTE: WE UPGRADED THE Stocklabs NEWSWIRE TO INCLUDE KEYWORD FILTERS. ENJOY

Interesting times. Let me posit this fact now. You have no place else to shop other than your grocery store or pharmacy. This goes without saying, but I’d surmise that a healthy portion of the $500b spent at the mall and restaurants will now be used in other places. This means KR and AMZN is your new Macy’s and Nordstrom. This means HAIN, CPB, and SJM are your new designer labels. Get it?

Because of zero percent interest rates, stocks that pay dividends deserve higher multiples. This is classic multiple expansion phase because of yield. Add on top of that the MONUMENTAL shift in consumer behavior and FORCED monopolies and you have a time and place where RECORD HIGH multiples can be affixed to consumer staples.

Yes, names like CLX, PG, CL, K, SJM and even FIZZ deserve high growth multiples. You will soon learn how incredibly under prices these stocks are and you should, as I will be soon, take advantage of rally days to buy them. They will dip on rally days — because ERRRRR “V-SHAPED RECOVERY” idiots piling in and out. But rest assured, these stocks will appreciate over the next 6 months.

Other than that, I am playing this bounce via the most degenerate way I know how.

NOTE: Trump just said he supports govt ownership in equities. Ok then.

THE PARTY CONTINUES!

Hard tape, down another 650 — for you. For me, this is what I was born for — to preside over the fires burning bright and hot with orchestral music whirring in the background. While you sat there wondering when stocks would bottom and when you could stop being such a faggot, Le Fly, a man of action, is minting coin.

Now I do not tell you these things to make you jealous. I will give you these fish. All you have to do is reserve a table at House Exodus and they are yours. Someone has to thrive in all this, might as well be me.

TODAY’S BOUNTY

IFMK +32% (bought in AHs last night after seeing volume and price tick)
FAZ +3.7% (bought into close, had a ‘hunch’)
GRIL +23% (BRO, WANT SOME WHEY WITH THOSE HARD BOILED EGGS)
GRIL +10% (so good I bought it twice)

I have three positions left, one of which is a DOUBLE SIZED position. I am not sure if the market is bottoming and I really do not care. I cannot concern myself with macro events, which is why I sold out of my retirement and Quant accounts in total. I am Captain of this vessel and if it’s going down, I will preside over it — not some harebrained “buy and hold” stratagem that only works during good times.

TESTIMONIAL TIME:

Historic day and the crash is now.

They’re trying with all of their might to fix this. I cannot say for certain what will occur — but I know for sure that cash is preferred to trying to time a bottom. TVIX hit $1,000 today and this tidbit from inside Exodus humored me to no end.

He said that ERY position was worth $500 in January and sold it today for $5200.

Do I stand before you victorious? Yes of course. Do I feel good about that — considering the carnage around me? You bet your ass I do.

I’m playing food deliver stocks in Exodus. I was short bonds, but that ended poorly The point there, the govt seems to have lost control of the bond market. Look at the 10yr, up 26bps to 1.26% whilst the 3mo is -19bps to 0.02%. Everything is broken.

WTI is trading down 23% to $21, the third biggest decline on record. What else can I say? Do not be greedy and DO NOT LISTEN to the people being interviewed on CNBC — for they are motivated by their books. Now is a time to hold cash and wait. If you want to trade, feel free. Join us in Exodus. If you do not know how to trade — no problem, since I provide fish daily and never delusion anyone with the idea of learning to trade. You cannot learn to trade. You either can do it or you cannot.

That being said, time to batten down the hatches and prepare for the fires.

Today’s haul: SOXS +13.2%, PIXY +32%, WTRH +12.7%

Down 8%, following what can only be described as Montauk Bill’s best performance on CNBC.

Billionaire hedge fund manager was on CNBC crying, saying 50% of the world would get the Coronavirus and how Hilton would go to zero, alongside all of the other hotels. Boeing to zero also and basically the world as we know it THRUSTED into a great depression. Whilst I agree with everything he said, he also added he was BUYING HILTON and his other holdings all the way down.

We need a 30 day quarantine, using the military if needed, according to Ackman.

Look, I’m over here with a double long APT position +10% and I just booked a 15 min day trade in PIXY for +32%. That’s who I am pal. I told YOOO the other day to run to cash. Many of you mocked and said it was the bottom.

I now sit here atop you, looking down upon the world whilst drinking from the golden chalice of victory.

Still, I am 80% cash in trading, 95% in Quant and 100% in retirement. WE ARE HEADING LOWER.

How much?

ALL THE WAY.