iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,200 Blog Posts

SIT DOWN AND SHUT UP — MARKETS ON THE PRECIPICE OF COLLAPSE

I am sick of the commentary on CNBC. It’s hurting investors and keeping them long equities into what could be the worst financial crisis ever. We are looking down the barrel of -80% decline in business. Bridgewater, giant hedge fund run by intelligent people, project a loss of $4 trillion in business in America alone.

It’s over.

It’s over.

It’s over.

I did a lot of things today, but settled on a 2x FAZ position rolling into total lockdown. Lots of credit conditions are beyond scary. Oil got face fucked for -20% peak to trough today — setting the stage of a complete meltdown in HY bonds. The Fed is now printing money (BRRRRRRRR) to buy munis, in order to keep cities afloat. The whole scheme is treacherous and this is happening because the conditions to expose our weakness was there before the virus. China didn’t need to send soldiers. They sent tourists and sunk the country — because it was sinkable.

Don’t talk shit if you have a glass jaw.

My advice, buy more toilet paper, lots of food and meds, withdraw cash from the bank, and prepare for the worst times you have ever witnessed.

Today’s closed trades.

NBY +21%
TNA +2.5%
(FAZ -3.8%)
NOVN +37%
(SPCE -8.6%)
CROX +7.3%
(NCLH -12.2%)
(DIN -3.2%)
(CHDN -1.3%)
(MDB -4.5%)
HUBS +1.6%
TEAM +1.2%
(ROKU -3.7%)

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74 comments

  1. i_am_nemo

    WTF!!!! SABR just closed at .50. It was 22 a month ago to the day. The airlines, hotels, car rental companies etc… use Sabre software to make reservations. They have a 3.4 debt to equity ratio. Perhaps they declare bankruptcy after hours.

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  2. roguewave

    “prepare for the worst times you have ever witnessed”
    Say it ain’t so.

    Who has backup electric generators at home? Not many.

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    • chrisgianti

      I did after they shut the power off on us for days…it was just wind and not even that bad of winds. Clown world

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  3. i_am_nemo

    A glitch, showing 3.55 in after hours.

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  4. irma vep

    rolyholyover

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    • Po Pimp

      Who / what the fuck is Ronin Capital and why should I give a shit if they go tits up?

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  5. dragun

    CNBC full ass clowns including their guests except maybe a handful.

    Best was when one guy on halftime said Vegas will be back in the fall and I think Ritholtz said I’ll take the other side.

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  6. alty

    Meh. If it’s as bad as you say, USD isn’t any more valuable than the VNQ I bought today.

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  7. it is showtime

    I’ll take the second stab at this:

    (from May 2019)

    ha ha

    2900 s-and-p is in the -REAR- – – -VIEW- – – – -MIRROR-

    HA. HA!

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  8. og

    Does the whole country shut down this weekend?

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    • peaches

      West Virginia shuts down last. Poorer states vote for Trump. Poor Trump supporters literally think everything in Italy is staged. NY and California have more degrees per capita and less fat men bringing Mossbergs to Walmart per capita as well.

      NYC construction workers think they’ll be back to work on Monday… The CIO of citigroup doesn’t…

      The less you know about the treasury bond market, the sooner you think this will be over.

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  9. dragun

    Sorry. Talking to people about how manufacturing is stepping up ie auto to make respirators “retooling”. Maybe retool for a tank but medical equipment? Seriously folks how dirty are those plants? Cut the BS retooling is a long process esp when it’s not even the same industry? I read it as govt money handout.

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    • alty

      Not dirty at all in many cases. Modern auto plants are often spotless, the transmission plants I’ve seen are anyway. New tooling could be produced in days as well. It’s the red tape to worry about.

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    • soupbone

      Chinamerica retooled in steady progression over 20 years or so, only in the last 10 years did quality enter the picture. What happens when outsourcing rules the roost.

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  10. Black Swan

    Fly, this is your finest hour {extra cigar}

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  11. the4th

    @fly r u shorting this?

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  12. ericbakerbruce

    This weekend Trump makes a deal with Putin to ease, possibly remove sanctions, on Russia and oil stabilizes. That is the real problem right now, not this pesky cold virus. Market goes up 10% Monday….

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  13. edge

    I’m all cash except for a few QQQ puts. I would have loaded up on puts today but what if exchanges get shut down Monday.
    We should all have made billions off a drop like this but there was no semblance of a normal bear market plunge. It went straight down and never gave you a decent chance to get in.
    It couldn’t look any worse. The chances of collapse are so high you are nuts to ignore it.
    Yeah, I know, maybe we get lucky. LOL.
    And please don’t give me that “buy the dip it always comes back” shit.

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    • alty

      There’s people (not me) saying this was the easiest most telegraphed bear market in modern history. Maybe if you were a government official on the intelligence committee.

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      • edge

        Saw it coming! Cashed out and went short a few days before the crash. I had no idea how it would work out. Too much cash and then I made the mistake of getting rid of what little I had. Thinking I could trade back in. Since then it’s been quick trades. Making money but it’s insane, never saw such fast and viscous price action.

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      • it is showtime

        The endgame-like leg from Oct-Jan?
        Which I was saying endgame-like the whole way?

        The initial crack was January 24.
        What I was looking for [and eagerly euphorically hoping for]
        was standard rollover. And. I tracked it and got it.

        There was slight follow through but overt intervention.
        Feb 20, 21 rollover. Feb 24. Fucking. Crack

        So-anyone-watching-results-of-a-generally-cliche-blowoff.
        At-the-very-fucking-least-could-have-seen-the-break-pt

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        • edge

          I was unconvinced of this economy before the 2018 crash. I knew it would be slow mo and hard to know just when. When the indexes went straight up in January I said no fucking way. I honestly didn’t see this disaster tho. A tradeable rout and very possibly a bear. Just a couple days before it started I positioned. The virus news was starting to cook. Nailed it. Alas; the speed and ferocity was not expected and I was not aggressive enough. But making a little money is better than getting killed.

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    • it is showtime

      I will agree with you on the pace.
      Bears really wanted protracted legs down.

      [but What The Fuck ever]

      The consecutive or near consecutive recordhigh run, and or count, was an operation.

      An operation was being run. In congruence with past observations of the programmed indexes.
      …It was an op …The near vertical leg was an op

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      • edge

        The very wealthy quite possibly have the ability to do that. I think that is was every man for himself though. When the game was over, discipline of the PPT broke.

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  14. cancel19

    All on a hoax that kills less than the common cold! Let that sink in.

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    • edge

      Much more deadly (at least 10x) and 1 in 5 five who are infected have permanent lung damage. This bug is going to kick our asses.

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      • cancel19

        People that live in cities have permanent lung damage too.

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        • edge

          OK Trumper

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          • monkeybot

            What’s with the hysteria multiplier edge?
            Likely the statistics you suggest are way off due to incredible lack of available testing. Not that it’s not serious but suspect Mortality rates are way lower. It’s clearly not the Black Plague.

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          • narcist

            Italy as of March 20th, 2020:

            Reported cases: 47,021
            Deaths: 4,032

            While I enjoy trolling right-wing morons, I do what I can to limit the amount of precious time I waste on them. Perhaps you (“edge”) should do the same.

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        • roguewave

          Someone knows some real numbers, but they sure as hell won’t be telling us anytime soon. The unknown is needed for max fear.

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          • edge

            Hmmm… conspiracy? I think that enough isn’t known. Also the incompetence of one particular orange colored buffoon

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    • tjnyt

      That is absolutely correct. It just hit me and I am a physician; more people die from the flu every year, in spite of the fact fu has an effective and widely used and accepted vaccine. Imagine if there was no flu vaccine?
      Containment is impractical, does not work on respiratory viral infections. But politicians and doctor-politicians will claim credit for doing “something”.
      Many Americans are suspicious of vaccines but they do offer some protection. Over the years more people get their flu shot and flu seasons have been tamed but the elderly still die during flu season.
      A respiratory virus is like IRS, you can run, hide but it will find you. You can isolate yourself in your private cave for 3 months but the moment you come out it will be waiting at the door. Your only protection is acquired immunity, from a vaccine or prior infection and your general state of health

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      • tjnyt

        Was just talking to my brother, an internist at a Long Island NY hospital, they have close to 100 employees who are +ve for this virus, go figure, masks& gloves my a…

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        • numbersgame

          So obviously you are not up 15% for the day anymore. I’m not goign to speculate on how far down you are, beceause its not relevant, but here is what is: you can be smart and still lose money. Ask me about NFLX..

          Anyone that isn’t 50% cash is asking for a beating, and the market will oblige.

          I’m compeltely baffled by your viewpoint that the virus will basically strik eveybody, but you are still logn on stocks. Understand that wehn 10,000 Americans are dead, no one is goign to be doing cashflow calcs on stocks.. they are just goign to sell and assume that the US will revert to the stone age. Fear will triumph.

          If you are bullsih, then just sell and then place a limit buy order on 10% lower than you thinks your favorite stock will go. Worst case :0% gain, 0% loss.

          Trust me. Or don’t. However, I’ll bet that I’ve been investing longer than you’ve been a doctor.

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          • tjnyt

            You are prob better investor than I, I was down 5% end of the day.
            Regarding COVID19, only time will prove/disprove my unconventional views

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          • numbersgame

            If you were down only 5%, then you managed your investements well considering the day’s action.

            I’m with you on the probably progress of the disease, but I think you are underestiamting the panic that wil lset in and how that wil laffect the market. Good luck

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          • heckler

            There is evidence that the virus has been here in the states since December. I think I had it in January. I think what a lot of folks don’t understand is that LOTS of us probably already had the virus and we are fine. People who already have had it can go back to work today almost risk free. These views will evolve into the public leaders and we will get back on track sooner than you think.

            I just hope this crisis gives people an opportunity to see how fucked up our system is and we make some positive changes towards taking care of people and away from greed. But you know we won’t, and basically, that’s why you can go long

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  15. i_am_nemo

    What they are admitting is the majority of people live paycheck to paycheck. The median income family can’t afford to miss one paycheck, much less two, three or four. It doesn’t matter if the market recovers in a couple of years. The cost of living will be twice as much.

    If you are wealthy, no big deal, If you earn median income or below, good luck.

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    • edge

      I have a feeling that the current order is about to end. One way or the other.
      Politics makes for strange bedfellows. Young people on the left and right both know they are being stolen from, although the ones on the right think that the few billion given to the lower class minorities hurts them more than the trillions given to the rich. Of course it’s ridiculous. They know it to. But demeaning people makes one feel superior, and they are desperate. And truthfully, a little lazy of thought.
      Back to the point. Sooner or later it will be figured out. Both sides are starting (well, one is just now starting) to talk guns.
      I hope that the moneyed (monied? help me!) don’t push this too far.

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      • numbersgame

        I don’t think it will come to a gun fight. There’s too much money in the US, and too many other levers of power.

        Senate Republicans are scared for the first time since 2008. They passed a Tax bill in 2018 that catered to the rich, without even blinking. Now they are talkign about not bailing out Boeing and partailly privatizing companies. We’ll see what’s in the bill, but politicians on both sides know they are walkign a tightrope. If there’s any dirt under the rug, you can be sure it will be found by November.

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        • narcist

          McConnell already knew he would lose his majority (including the McCain seat currently occupied by some cunt named McSally).

          That’s why he told the judges to retire so he can replace them with some college Republicans.

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  16. wolfdaddy

    Don’t forget to add guns and ammo to your list. Too late anyway it’s all sold out.

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    • edge

      Amazing. Probably hoarded by the same ones who hoarded it last time. They’ll kill you before you could even use half of it you know.
      I am far smarter. I hoarded more than I could possibly use years ago.

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  17. bubba12631

    WE ARE FLAMING DRAGON

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  18. numbersgame

    “I am sick of the commentary on CNBC. It’s hurting investors and keeping them long equities into what could be the worst financial crisis ever.”

    That’s exactly how i felt in 2007. The best thing about this market collapse is that it happenned so fast that a lot of the top 10% couldn’t get out fast enough, so the pain is shared.

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    • i_am_nemo

      Yes. This a once in a lifetime time oppurtunity to invest. Some companies down 85% from the 52 week highs within a month. Very tempting. Do you you honestly believe all the missallocation of capital will be fixed in the next few months? A new paradigm (I hate this word) is emerging.

      If you don’t have to physically interact with people;

      You can study from home
      You can work from home
      You don’t have to go to the doctor’s office etc..

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    • numbersgame

      Many peopel think that COVID-19 isn’t that bad becauase the death rate is much lower sicne most people aren’t tested. However, that goes both ways: becuase most peoepl aren’t tested, the actual number of cases in every country on Earth is much higher than reported.

      Case 1:
      COVID-19 is much more rare than the Flu, but much deadlier. Expect 500,000 confirmed cases in the US, 20% requiring hospitalization, and a 2% death rate among the infected.

      Case 2:
      COVID-19 will strike a huge amount of people ,but most will recover without any medical aid. Expect 50M cases (most unconfirmed), 2% requiring hospitalization, and a 0.02% death rate.

      Unfortunately, I think both these scenarios are optimistic.

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      • i_am_nemo

        They are willing to destroy the economy over this. Or is this economy so fragile it can’t withstand a month of refrain?

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        • numbersgame

          A month is the best case scenario. Even as altae as March, the US has been too slow to react.

          1 lost week = 10 fold increase i nthe number of cases

          Hence, I’m more pessimsitic than i was when i wrote this:

          19 days ago:
          “Most importantly, investors are severely underestimating the problem in Washingotn State. Basically, conatainment has been lost, and it’s just a matter of time before the US case rate looks like SK, Iran, and Italy.”
          https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/03/02/rally-isnt-strong-think/#comment-566641

          38 days ago
          “I’m just looking at facts, and drawing conclusions. It just happens to be that the virus is turning out worse than most people (inclduiging myself) thought. Why don’t you just bookmark this and we’ll check back in a month to see where I was on the chicken little / nostradamus scale?”
          https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/02/12/buy-stocks-buy-cryptos-live-richly/#comment-566065

          And, no ,this economy can’t stand 2-3 mothns of shutdowns

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      • tjnyt

        Even If you are correct in your Numbers, 10,000. deaths, that is 110 deaths a day over 90 days. More people die from bike injuries across the nation, we are committing a collective suicide in the face of imaginary danger.

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        • numbersgame

          In the long run, i agree it isn’t a big deal and I’ve said that before. But the psycholigicla impact is magnitudes greater (perhaps because the money can’t save anyone from this, unliek the flu).

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  19. rishisunak

    26th March Fuckers. Get Ready and go all in.

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  20. i_am_nemo

    If you haven’t liquidated it is too late.

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  21. roguewave

    Topic: BTC
    Sorry I could not find a link for this letter:

    Abra CEO Crypto Update from Bill Barhydt

    Bitcoin has seen its wildest couple of weeks in years. After plummeting almost 50% in the past month it has now climbed over 25% in the past week. It’s safe to say volatility has returned to Bitcoin after months of relative calm.

    Why I’m more bullish on Bitcoin now than a week ago…

    1. Quantitative easing coming
    Expect to see $5-10 Trillion globally in new money being printed to deal with the deflationary pressures of the Coronavirus disaster. That means people will be seeking out appreciation and yield to address this new dynamic. This is the time that Bitcoin likely becomes more correlated to gold and less correlated to discretionary investment spending. This could lead to an explosion in Bitcoin’s price.

    2. Bitcoin halving is less than two months away
    The new supply of Bitcoin created every month is about to be cut in half. This is going to be a big shock to the mining community as well as the investment community and hasn’t been priced into Bitcoin at all in my opinion. Combined with quantitative easing there simply won’t be enough Bitcoin to go around. This could lead to an explosion in Bitcoin’s price.

    3. More awareness for Bitcoin as a hedge against currency inflation
    Currency inflation drives the value of your investments towards zero over the long term. I expect more fiat currencies to fail in the next 2-4 years. The Euro is clearly at risk. This could lead to negative bank rates and super high lending rates and create a huge strain on the banking system. People will be looking for a safe haven for their investment dollars. This could lead to an explosion in Bitcoin’s price.

    4. Exciting new opportunities for earning with Bitcoin
    People are waking up to the idea that you can earn money with your Bitcoin beyond just price appreciation. Look for more announcements from Abra in this area very soon! This could lead to an explosion in Bitcoin’s price.

    Bitcoin price fluctuations will be dramatic in the next few weeks. But the mid term outlook for Bitcoin is better than ever. There are no guarantees in life but I’m convinced that having at least 10% of my assets in Bitcoin is the right play for me.

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    • alty

      “Won’t be enough bitcoin to go around” hilarious

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      • numbersgame

        Plus, that’s a problem, not a feature.

        A true currency should have stable value, not apprecaite/depreciate. If there is very high probabaility that your currency will buy more tomorrow, then thier is disincentive to spending, whcih reduces the money multipliers and slows down the economy.

        If the maximum amoount of USD was fixed, the eceonomy would grind to a halt.

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  22. wolfdaddy

    Lol Andy Cohen has it and he was doing shotskis with Clinton two weeks ago

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  23. numbersgame

    On last post.

    “Maybe the US will handle the virus like China did”

    Hopefully not…
    https://mobile.twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1241025420562178050/photo/1

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    • heckler

      Oh jesus – everything that’s paid for lost rev / subs / sales during this time

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      • heckler

        If your implication is all these people died, don’t you think that it is more likely since all these motherfuckers weren’t out on the streets selling spicy bat soup they had to cut the cell phone bill?

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        • numbersgame

          I definitely don’t think they all died, but I do think a hell of a lot more than 4000 did.

          For perspective, curerntly Chin is claiming that ~0.007% of their population got the virus. Imagine if US **total cases** peaked at 25,000, and you’ll see how rediculous that assumption is.

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  24. ericbakerbruce

    This really is the Fed’s fault. Rates way too low for way too long. There are big ass hedge funds blowing up whose strategy was to buy UST and sell the swap and get the arb (which is pennies). Until you utilize leverage via repo market. Which they did. If nominal rates were higher, the profits from scraping the pennies off the floor from these arb trades would not cover the interest expense of the leverage they used. What you say? Leverage is bad? And trading exchanges, the entities that create products that allow 10x leverage will walk away. Big man pig man, haha charade you are.

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    • narcist

      Lots of words but you really mean “moral hazard” which is defined as a “lack of incentive to guard against risk where one is protected from its consequences, e.g. by insurance.”

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  25. narcist

    By now only shithole states like Nebraska aren’t getting slaughtered by COVID.

    But they will. Just a matter of time.

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    • edge

      Everyone will be exposed. But if we all get it at the same the death toll will skyrocket.

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  26. heckler

    THE SIZE OF THE COLLECTIVE US VAGINA HAS GROWN 10X IN A MONTH! You are all fucking pussies

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    • tjnyt

      Mass Hysteria, psychology in action, Listen to Elon if not me. Even if 10k die in 3 months (toll will be much less, our crematoriums are not running overtime) that is 110/day over 3-month length of the epidemic. More people die from bike accidents a day in the nation/ / /. We are committing national suicide in the face of imaginary danger.
      People are good at extrapolating, numbers, based upon faulty input, garbage in garbage…We have learned nothing from housing bubble, endless extrapolation

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      • heckler

        People are soft man. So soft. Like they’ve never had to face adversity.

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  27. tjnyt

    What angers me most is these fucking doctors will claim victory and credit for “saving ” us, economy be dammed. How about total deaths under 2k or even 1K!

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  28. tjnyt

    Our president is advising us how to sanitize and reuse a mask. Pathetic.

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