iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,200 Blog Posts

F E A R

Historic day and the crash is now.

They’re trying with all of their might to fix this. I cannot say for certain what will occur — but I know for sure that cash is preferred to trying to time a bottom. TVIX hit $1,000 today and this tidbit from inside Exodus humored me to no end.

He said that ERY position was worth $500 in January and sold it today for $5200.

Do I stand before you victorious? Yes of course. Do I feel good about that — considering the carnage around me? You bet your ass I do.

I’m playing food deliver stocks in Exodus. I was short bonds, but that ended poorly The point there, the govt seems to have lost control of the bond market. Look at the 10yr, up 26bps to 1.26% whilst the 3mo is -19bps to 0.02%. Everything is broken.

WTI is trading down 23% to $21, the third biggest decline on record. What else can I say? Do not be greedy and DO NOT LISTEN to the people being interviewed on CNBC — for they are motivated by their books. Now is a time to hold cash and wait. If you want to trade, feel free. Join us in Exodus. If you do not know how to trade — no problem, since I provide fish daily and never delusion anyone with the idea of learning to trade. You cannot learn to trade. You either can do it or you cannot.

That being said, time to batten down the hatches and prepare for the fires.

Today’s haul: SOXS +13.2%, PIXY +32%, WTRH +12.7%

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75 comments

  1. awanka

    Damn it. Trump rally has been erased. I have to go long here.

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  2. numbersgame

    Thanks for the tip on PIXY – I shorted it @ $9.60. A restaurant staffing stock? Sounds liek market with a lot of Offers and no Bids.

    @$4Million market cap, it’s no surprise that your pump-and-dump was so effective. Congrats.

    However, your cash call actualy deserves praise with no sarcasm. I’ve been shuffling like a madman today, with a small loss as a reward (as of 3:45) I’d actaully be up today if i wasn’t catching Long knives intraday like [email protected]$35. I think I’ll still come out ahead, but probably would have been better of cashing out yesterday and takign a nap until 3pm.. We’ll see tomorrow if I was wastign my time today.

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  3. narcist

    Had a brief chat with a doctor bubby who is about to cut short his spring break to deal with COVID. His non-political views are:

    – Governments of all levels have uttered failed the public, for starters, new hospitals should have been under development since the first cases appeared

    – Many front-line responders (i.e., not just the doctors and nurses) will become spreaders themselves due to a severe lack of proper protection gears

    – A second wave later in the year is a certainty

    – US death toll will surpass China’s way before this is over

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    • numbersgame

      Can’t say I disagree with any of that.

      I am optimisitc that the DoD already is preparing to convert sports stadiums to “new hosipitals”, but they haven’t made the determination on where to deploy yet. If the DoD can’t help in a major way, then hopefully it will finally be obviosu to Conservateives that we’ve been prepping for the wrong war.

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      • narcist

        It’s like a deja vu of a slow-moving 9/11 attack being handled by a moron who is far more incompetent than George W. Bush.

        Now the said moron is going to declare Mission Accomplished (again) and resume his own Iraq war (the trade wars that are easy to win).

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    • heaterman

      It won’t be over for at least 18 months or until a vaccine becomes globally available.

      It might be suppressed for a month or two but it will come right back.

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      • roguewave

        It’s all speculation, but some think it will diminish at the end of flu season.

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  4. awanka

    Gah. I hate being long in this market.

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  5. it is showtime

    Gold&silver

    are saying
    DEflation
    not….. safe haven!…..
    DEflation

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    • soupbone

      Farm land, preferably with a stream or fresh water. Cities will become hell holes.

      Gold may be a safe haven at some point in the future, still.

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    • numbersgame

      That’s for damn sure. If my Treasury Bonds continue to lose value, then you don’t want to know what will happen to your house.

      “If you thought ‘Too Big To Fail: Housing Crash’ was a rollercoaster ride, wait until you see ‘2 Bigger 2 Fail 2: COVID-19’.

      Jim is just your ordinary mutlimillionaire minding his own business. All of sudden, Jim’s Baby Boomer friends start coughing. Now stocks are falling. Then gold is falling. The FDIC won’t insure all your cash. You get a call: there’s a bomb in the economy. If you can’t keep the 30yr Bond below 1.5%, real estate prices will collapse along with the economy! “

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    • roundwego

      were back, you know that means 😉

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  6. the4th

    Anyone have any thoughts on Rite Aid?

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    • metalleg

      They suck. Understaffed. Long lines.

      I drive to the next town for CVS.

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    • bambam

      They’re like the only company that hasn’t spammed me about their response to COVID-19. But I can say, some of their employees are pretty unhealthy, coughing and crap and management doesn’t seem to send them home. I’m guessing if you want the virus, go there first before grocery shopping. Regarding the stock, I don’t think it will do bad in this crap market. It’s open. It’s an essential business. And they sell medical stuff, prescriptions, BOOZE and some minor food items and greeting cards for various occasions. Although everybody has forgotten that including Mom’s birthday.

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    • flea

      If I’m not mistaken in the past 6 months I think they made a brilliant play. They did their utmost to talk up their business but their debt began going south even faster. The market kept telling them them they were shit, pricing their putrid debt to $0.60 on the dollar.

      So they bought it them own damn selves!

      So, buy? maybe ….

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  7. mad marsupial

    I don’t have the slightest clue what the bottom looks like on this. Is it volume? Price (not likely). March 2009 was a little bit easier than this. It was because banks and government(s) loaded up debt that froze. Can a virus cause debt to freeze? Maybe. Corporate debt is horrendous. No question, this is a great buying opportunity coming at us.

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    • awanka

      Look to the news. We need a tangible path to the end of the pandemic. Until then a bottom cannot be defined by sentiment or price action.

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      • numbersgame

        Exactly right, and the path to the end is lead by knowing where we are, ie how many cases do we actually have?

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  8. swordfish00

    Thanks for all the fish fly. Especially the countless $SOXS trades.

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  9. dragun

    Ackman needs the 30days to raise capital given he just got his head handed to him

    CNBC talked a out how emotional he was when he self isolated for his father. The emotion is knowing hes done. L/S got fucked no direction movement and hes probably levered.

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    • i_am_nemo

      OMG! The horrors of going from a multi billionaire to merely hundreds of millions. Of course the pension funds and the millions of people involved with Pershing Square will see their investments cut off at the knees. Guess what? We will pay for it collectively.

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  10. soupbone

    what was the term ‘bail ins’ again?

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  11. edge

    I give less than 50% odds that this gets fixed.

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    • narcist

      Forexland is still crashing like October 2008 as of today.

      VIX still wants to hit 100.

      We’re months from any meaningful turnaround.

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      • discoordinated

        Your not kidding. I am in forex and have been managing well until today. Ugh. It is not just that it is crashing. It is that all logical thesis trading is on it’s head. People are pouring into the Euro. Or maybe they are not. Maybe it is shorts being forced.

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        • narcist

          These 6-plus-standard deviation plunges in the Pound Sterling and the AUD are absolutely historic–and yet they don’t even get mentioned in the financial press these days.

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          • numbersgame

            As far as the press and most of America is concerned, the only thing that matters are the ~30 stocks listed in the DJIA.

            Bonds? “I’m not into kinky stuff”
            WiIlshire 5000? “Never heard of it.”
            S&P 500? “Don’t they sell groceries?”
            Dow Jones? “Right, I know that one: they sell fruit”
            Stock market? “OMG, I know!! It went down x000 points today!”

            Currencies is WAY in the weeds

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  12. one-eighty

    I’m feeling much better about things today. In a week or so we will know if the lockdowns are working. My dividends are still flowing.

    I am starting to smell a firming up in attitude to this thing so I may even start to be a buyer. The preferreds are getting creamed and are looking very tempting.

    I wish your asshat in chief would get on the phone to Putin and MBS and threaten them mightily if they don’t sort out their oil mess. We don’t need a stupid sideshow.

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    • narcist

      What lockdowns?

      These horny millennials are still actively turning themselves into spreaders (at the beaches and the motels) in Florida.

      A good number of them will proceed to kill their grandparents with the bug.

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    • narcist

      Another piece of scary data about the “lockdowns” from Italy:

      For days the numbers of new cases and deaths were in the 3000+ and 300+.

      What we just got in the last 24 hours are 4207 and 475.

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    • Po Pimp

      Why would he threaten his two besties? He’s doing what the fuck they tell him to do.

      Fucking dotard puppet.

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  13. purdy

    For Chrissakes Fly!!!!!!!! Give Numbers his own page.

    He accuses you of being a low vol stock pumper and he posts his awesome buy of a stock at $26 when the stock had already ramped up to $30!!! He’s a loudmouth moron ..Let him pollute elsewhere.

    IMHO

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    • heckler

      R u still short / cash?

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    • wolfdaddy

      He should go blog with denninger. Both experts at everything, except making money in the markets

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    • numbersgame

      Call it like I see it, good or bad. Did you miss the part about
      “However, (Fly’s) cash call actualy deserves praise with no sarcasm. ”

      Also, as I mentioned before, there is no upside for me posting trades as I make them, so I’m doing less of that thanks to @ssholes liek you.

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  14. tjnyt

    WTI is making a V-shaped recovery. The bottom is at hand.
    They say strike it when it’s hot, GS is hitting us after every positive FED action. Probably the last near term.
    Today an employee at our back office of housecall service tested positive, the office is closed. I heard there are plans to convert the space to a temp hospital. While the virus hysteria reaches its crescendo; I told all my patients I visited today, rest assured epidemic is on a downward trajectory after causing mild flu-like symptoms, in the vast majority of people here in the US.
    DJT may get lucky, declaring WIN over “chinese virus” and his sycophant medicos taking victory lap, medals galore.

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    • oohrah

      Any scientific evidence rather than anecdotal evidence that Americans are genetically superior than the Italians when it comes to the survival rate?

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    • narcist

      The bottom *will be* at hand when some prominent politicians die from this shit–may that be the bug itself or assassinations.

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    • heckler

      I wish I would have stuck to my original thesis of wild OTM YOLOs on places of gathering like fucking casinos and swimming pools conglomerates. But pls don’t be too concerned about my BTC losses. It was a bit of a panic play, but I wanted to learn crypto anyway. I’m not a professional traded. I’M A MOTHERFUCKING SCIENTIST.

      And I have to agree with the good doctor here. I’m pretty sure I already got the virus. I bet many people have. Cases in Italy are starting to bend the curve. Spicy Meatball and America will follow the same path, more or less. It won’t go exponential forever. The Spanish Flu killed tens of millions, we are GIGANTIC FAGS these days. Also everything in are culture is “all or nothing,” yolo meme bullshit pump it crash it.

      Trump is trying to get republicans in the Senate to go full socialist and offering to nationalize companies, buying stock. Are you kidding me?

      I previously called for 3800 SPX this week (Numbers can look it up with his time machine). I think when folks settle down a little we will see some buyers into month’s end. From there we will find out if this ‘pussy virus’ takes us to generational lows and I get to retire early and peace the fuck out

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    • numbersgame

      You guys have a lot of company in your views. For example, Jeffery Gundlach just siad he closed all his shorts for the first time in years.

      OTM calls will kill you because of time decay. OTH, a few well placed stock buys may work out in the long term, although I personally see more downside ahead, once we eclipse Italy in Deaths and China in cases. <- forward prediction alert!

      Did you know we're at 7000+ cases? Oh sorry, that was from 7pm. Make that 9000+ cases.

      "U! S! A! We're #1"

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    • numbersgame

      WTI
      …started the year at $61
      …started the month at $47
      …started the week at $33
      …started the day at $27
      …hit a technical bounce at $20
      …is now at $22 (V-shaped recovery)

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  15. indexjoe

    Thanks for the fish

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  16. one-eighty

    ZM is looking OK. Lots of organizations are meeting inline.
    My wife just had her pilates class online for the first time through Zoom. It worked great.

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    • wolfdaddy

      Zoom is killing it on the WFH world. Schools, healthcare and all of corporate America

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  17. sftradeallday23

    Futures down hard again, ouch.. We might see 1800 on the S&P before this is done. I made a cool million on vix calls… now time to find the bottom. I’ll start nibbling at 2000. I’ve been averaging down on GRUB since 43 with a 37 average now… This is going to be a long ride with restaurant dine in closed.. delivery will win and will be viewed as a savoir for the restaurant business to keep restaurant employees working.. Pissed there were some dumb ass delivery plays like WTRH up over 100% today while GRUB just muddled in red.. soon there will be some reckoning and i will win again.. hopefully

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    • narcist

      Briefly limited down again. For the umpteenth time since the all-time highs a month ago.

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    • wolfdaddy

      I don’t get why grub is the red headed stepchild either. Congrats on the vix calls.

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  18. heaterman

    Shutdown is coming. Not just the market but in fact, everything.
    Total pause button on all but emergency and essential services.
    Tomorrow, maybe Friday.

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  19. 1russianguy

    The media manipulation on this is nuts, and something just doesn’t feel right. Politically motivated or the gov’t is hiding something? Do you remember how little coverage the H1N1 virus got in the news?

    President Trump:
    COVID-19 Coronavirus
    US cases: 9,345
    US deaths: 150
    Panic level: Mass hysteria!

    President Obama:
    H1N1 Virus (2009 – 2010)
    US cases: 60.8 MILLION
    US deaths: 12,469
    Panic level: Totally chill

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    • narcist

      EXACTLY! So unfair to Fuhrer Trump! Upvote x1000000!!!

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    • tjnyt

      150 deaths of folks who were already on the edge of life.

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    • X-RAY

      Your numbers tell the story.

      Let’s say we use the LOW estimate of infection; 40% of US population.

      330,000,000 x .40 = 132,000,000 infected.

      Now use a LOWER death rate; like 1.2%.

      132,000,000 x .012 = 1,584,000 dead (in US alone).

      That is the difference. Do I believe it? I hope not, but it may be possible.

      That is before we count the complete overrun of the healthcare system, and many more problems.

      Plus, you get a lot of problems outside of just death. Many will be ill for a long time, and have permanent issues. Good luck.

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      • narcist

        Please understand the majority of this blog’s readership reside in an alternate universe where alternative facts are fed to them by the Fuhrer’s media apparatus. They cannot comprehend your facts.

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    • peaches

      There were 18,000 deaths globally from H1N1.

      12,000 in the US?

      Infowars?

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    • Po Pimp

      The new tech idiot box Twatter wasn’t as prevalent back then.

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  20. tjnyt

    I have wondered about missing the chance of early mass testing for virus and thus accurately mapping the course of the disease in the US. My question to all: it would have helped or hurt?
    From what is happening here in NYC today regarding public and official response my own opinion has reversed. Early detection>early panic>lengthy lockdown> unfathomable damage to the economy.

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    • metalleg

      You te asking all the questions they want you to ask. The answer is…

      This whole thing is BS.

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      • peaches

        These guys are why we go lower. Think of how many “it’s not real” money is still sitting in the market. Lining up to buy Tesla every morning as if anyone in their right mind is doing anything but rounding up green paper under the mattress.

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        • metalleg

          Nope. It’s real as far as perception goes and I am well aware this is an orchestrated takedown so I am prepared for the worst. I wouldn’t recommend anyone buy anything. Cash, Gold, Silver is where to be now.

          I’m calling it BS because the whole thing is a ruse in order to justify the collapse of the market.

          COVID-19 has been around for months and it’s been tepid here in the US.

          Everyone says it’s coming…

          Anyone saying that can never be proven wrong.

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  21. one-eighty

    How has this administration done in combating the spread of COVID-19?

    US has tested 70,000 people.
    Canada has tested 50,000 people.

    The US has 10 times the population of Canada.

    So proven: This administration has completely messed up.

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    • narcist

      Yeah but 70k > 50k you libtards hate Trump so much you can’t even do the math right LOL

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      • flea

        Dude – you can’t think of anything but Trump. Think that over.

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    ..check further details by open the link and click on (HOME TECH OR MEDIA.)  HERE……..www.media900.co?

    • 0
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  24. vesob991

    If you have some free time on your hands, why not make some extra cash every week? Follow this link for more information 

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  25. vesob991

    nice

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  26. narcist

    As of the wee hours of March 19th, the tape is looking a bit better thanks to the trillions of dollars that the Illuminati considered urgent enough to release immediately. (Lagarde took over the helicopter for now.)

    But still hard to tell how long the bandage will stick given the grim COVID numbers.

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  27. peaches

    Does anyone else find it hard to believe that China suddenly stopped finding sick people? And Italians are getting sick faster?

    China’s charts don’t even look natural. The virus didn’t taper off, it supposedly disappeared, which means it should disappear in Italy within 2 weeks.

    Or China is lying and we are all beyond fucked. Italy isn’t behind a giant firewall, they can’t fudge their numbers… And it’ll get harder and harder for China to keep fudging data. Like they did with PMI data all of spring summer and fall 2015.

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  28. heckler

    Anyone starting to think this is the best thing to happen to America in like forever?? All we have to do to beat this thing is chill out and stay the fuck home and relax. What’s more – there gonna send us money! So take a load off, read a book, open that good bottle of wine you’ve been saving and smoke a cigar in your hot tub.

    Trump could have gone full totalitarian on us but he’s way too stupid so instead, he’s gonna do more for social democracy in America – in two weeks – than Bernie could have done in 4 years. Nothing like this has happened since FDR. Turns out we can take care of everybody – who knew!?!

    People are being nice to each other! Neighbors are sharing. There are giving the homeless here somewhere to live and more cash than they’ve probably ever had. Ah bummer boomer, no more buying brand new TVs and bullshit from China every weekend 🙁 You’re free market is fallacy and it’s been laid bare. Might have to sell that second vacation home. You’re system on inequality is collapsing around you.

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  29. awanka

    Got stopped out of my long position again. Probably for the best.

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  30. Po Pimp

    Is fly dead?

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