Wall Street Is Pricing in More Pricing In

I used to concern myself with the machinations of Wall Street.

“How the fuck did that happen? Wasn’t anyone paying attention?”

But after the financial crisis and definitely after the Greek crisis of 2012, I concluded that Wall Street no longer existed in the traditional sense and instead was domiciled by speed jerking lunatics who didn’t care about anything but upward momentum. You might look at the CoronaVirus business and wonder why investors aren’t freaking out. How is it possible for Trump’s trade war vs China to not only not have an affect on stocks — but if anything a bullish one? After Trump got done with China and their beautiful economy, the Chinese must’ve fucked themselves with this Bat-Soup virus and now their entire country is being treated like the plague. Business must be horrendous. In NYC and San Fran, Chinese eatery sales are down 50-70%.

Aside from crude and copper markets, one would never know there was a plague going around. By God, futures are sharply higher again and AMD just caught an upgrade! I know what you’re thinking — “what about the semi supply chain? Isn’t everything made there?”

Shut up. We’ll have none of that nonsense. Go wash your mouths out with soap. We’re pricing in the pricing in of all of that and now we’re pricing in a normalization of business and then after that — we’re pricing in a post plague boom. This is why stocks are higher.

This is not getting any better and it’s important to remind you fuckers of several points.

• Chinese tourism adds $260 billion to the global economy per annum.
• Chinatown eateries in NYC and San Fran are reporting 50-70% declines in business.
• Since the plague, food prices have soared, with pork up 114%. Hello inflation.
• Over 1,000 deaths have been reported and 43,090 infected.
• One man infected about 10, meaning there are super-spreaders out there. Case in point, that fucking Japanese cruise ship with ~150 infected.
• In HK, they evacuated an apartment building because they suspect it spread via the pipes.
• The virus can last up to 9 days on surface.
• A woman diagnosed is believed to have contracted the disease 42 days ago.
• People can spread it without showing symptoms.
• Conspiracy theorists claims the amount of sulfur dioxide being emitted over Wuhan suggests organic material being incinerated, enough equaling 14,000 bodies.
• A 13th person has been diagnosed and is in San Diego.

Markets don’t give a fuck.

Theory: No one in China will ever get to leave their apartments again. A foil in the plan:

A Hong Kong apartment building was partially evacuated due to possibility virus was transmitted through pipes

Fuck. But let’s just say the pipes cannot kill all of the people in China, schools are 100% closed. As you already know about the Chinese, they love their schooling. Ergo, and this goes without saying, while the quarantine is in effect the children must still be educated. This is why stocks like DAO, TAL, COE, DL — just to name a few — blasted the fuck off. Period end of story.

I am long DAO for the glory.

Another interesting play is data servers — people bogged out trading Bitcoin all day waiting for the pipes to kill them, has resulted in sharply higher Bitcoins.

GDS is your play.

A great cocaine rally day for stocks. There is nothing out there able to stop it, not even the plague.

I can’t say this has never happened to me before — because losing streaks are awful. You get loaded up with a bunch of stocks at the same time and you start paring them down one by one and it seems like you just keep booking Ls, when in fact you were wrong on the timing of one group of trades and not the fucking trades themselves.

After my magnificent virus trade victories, I edged into a number of stocks, mostly runners who reported solid earnings in an effort to see some continuation. Most of the time this is a high probability trade — eek out another 3-5% on a stock up big with momentum. Not a big deal. Not happening now, fucked face. All of those stocks are getting lit. Ergo, I sold out of IRBT, just about capping off my recent sojourn into stupidity, for an 8.7% loss, making it my 8th consecutive losing trade.

Very fucking nice.

My Quant is doing fine, up more than 70bps today — invested without emotion and growing without fear.

In my trading account today, 10 of 14 of my stocks are higher, so it’s not all losses. As a matter of fact, I’m up today — but I keep getting forced out of stocks due to breakdowns in price action. Many of those stocks will probably bottom and go higher now — but because I bought them at the wrong price — I lost the right to own it.

There are some names I will double, even triple down on. These stocks are low conviction plays and I’d hate to turn what seemed like a quick profit momo trade into an oversized investment just because I was too stubborn to take the L. Been there and done that.

The moral of the story is to fuck off. I know what you’re thinking: “The Fly has lost it. Had a little juju and now it’s gone with the city of Wuhan.” Well, you’d be wrong to ever think that about me. I have a mind like a fucking computer, constantly learning new shit — able to adapt and crush my enemies in head to head trading combat at any given time. I will overcome this losing streak and once again walk these halls in magnanimous fashion, accompanied by two slaves fanning incense in my wake.

Bitcoin has thrusted above $10,000 again, streaming a whole new cadre of millennial retards into the fray. Whilst stocks shatter new highs on a regularly basis, these absolute fools are still trying to achieve a 50% drawdown from 2016.

Nothing would please me more than seeing this western finance business shattered to bits and pieces, in spite of being a handsome beneficiary of it; but it’s never going to happen. People like John McAfee personify the SHITCOIN space — absolute clowns who aren’t formidable.

So have fun trading and be sure to fuck yourselves when preparing to offer me a rebuttal.

As for stocks, I am concerned about the linear growth of the coronavirus. It suggests the Chinese haven’t been able to test at scale and it’s much worse than presently understood. And then there’s shit like this to process.

Current SO? levels are extremely elevated, at 1700ug/m^3, where 80ug/m^3 is considered dangerously high. pic.twitter.com/rb3IDwzxmW

— ?????????? (@inteldotwav) February 8, 2020

This is from 4chins so take this with a grain of salt, but one poster extrapolated from the SO2 release data and estimated 14,000 bodies would have to be burnt to reach this level of emissions. #coronavirus pic.twitter.com/mM5kbcxWEM

— ?????????? (@inteldotwav) February 8, 2020

At any rate, I’m watching the oscars with my daughter now, laughing at the charade. I’ll see you fuckers tomorrow.

I started blogging in the early 2000s, first political and then after realizing I hated politics — I did finance. For those of you who were there, 2004-2009 was the peak of the blogging period, especially for finance. You could find wonderful new blogs almost everyday, until Twitter came along and dumbed down the narrative to 180 characters. At first I hated Twitter for destroying an otherwise great medium. It’s important to read and to write and, as humans, to express ourselves. God knows no one likes a complainer in real life — best to relegate it to the blog.

Since the 2016 elections, politics swept thru Twitter and the people in charge of it have expressed their bias. Because so many people are on Twitter now, banning someone is on par with excommunication — a banishing from the public square. It’s a way for them to say “your type isn’t welcomed here.”

A lot of people have shown support for Tyler at Zerohedge since Twitter decided to ban him last week. While his opinions on the markets might not be what mine are, I valued his Twitter account immensely because he shared information that made me a smarter person. It’s nice to laugh and to read inane tweets about people shitting themselves, but every so often I like to be intellectually stimulated. Lucky for the world, Tyler has a blog and on that blog I suspect he will launch a product to replace the headline news medium he generated on Twitter. I will gladly pay for such a service.

Which brings me to my next point. If blogging were a stock, I’d be long in size. All of the social platforms have exercised their demands upon its users and have undergone a process to demonetize and deplatform whoever they do not like. Eventually the people banned, and people who dislike the policies of these companies, will realize the only true way to express themselves freely is by the written word.

Unlike a Twitter account, or an Instagram, or a fucking Youtube account, when you have a website — it is yours. You own it — digital property. No one can kick you off of it and no one can fucking stop you. I think this is the reason why podcasts have become so popular again, a sense of ownership and control over content.

As a matter of fact, I don’t eat bread anymore. I don’t drink any form of alcohol, and I don’t eat sugary snacks. “The Fly” is now an austere man, circumventing life as a minimalist and lifting heavy objects at the gym daily — no longer partaking in unhealthy habits that are the root of ruin. I don’t spend money on things I don’t need and I rarely take outsized risks with my investments. My business, now being just the site and software, is run as a center of profit and not designed to burn cash in order to fuel growth in order to someday sell it to someone else. That sort of model is for someone else.

Everything I just mentioned about my person is the exact opposite of Fly from ten years ago, a person who spent ruinous amounts of dollars on luxury items, made outsized investments designed for clowns, and drank booze and indulged in sweets whenever the fuck he wanted to.

The longer you live the more you realize things. For many of you young punks, you probably have a father figure to teach you these things. I didn’t have any of that and had to learn thru the fires of error. If I could impart anything onto the next generation of investors, it is this.

Avoid the things that are common amongst failed people. While it might not happen to you on the scale that leads to ruin, it is unproductive and will not bring you happiness.

As for markets, nothing to see or do. I sold off some losers and have some cash to invest for next week.

As for the virus, I don’t what to think, other than wow.

People screaming in a lockdown city in China. Shanghai next.. pic.twitter.com/9g5PXLFlzX

— Russian Market (@russian_market) February 7, 2020

HAGW.

In early 2016 they got down this low and then roared higher and once again we are here with the 10yr at 1.59%, down 5 bps wondering what it all means. The economy is supposed to be robust and big titted and strong. If it was, would rates be this low? I think not. Then again, profits are real and we’re raking in trillions. Businesses are firing on all cylinders. Monopolies go unchecked and we’re winning trade wars left and right, as our enemies deal with the plague.

Over in Europe, they still have negative rates, quite deep actually. If you have any decent sized account there, you’re paying a negative interest rate to your bank for the pleasure. This all gives me a sickened feeling in my gut, but alas — markets are at record highs and nothing seems able to disrupt it. Plus, and let’s not forget this, the central bankers have finally figured out how to eliminate the business cycle. No more boom-bust, just boom all the time because of excess liquidity.

Nevertheless, I have a mixed bag today, down on the day. Following my sojourn into virus stocks — I haven’t traded too well, aside from nailing the top in TSLA with puts.

I usually got to the gym in the morning, after taking my daughter to school. But today I slept in because her school was canceled and I feel great. I rarely get more than 4 hours sleep these days. About a decade ago, when I was a salamander like financial advisor, sitting poolside taking in the sun, I’d regularly get 7-8hrs per day and I never aged. Word of advice for the young punks reading this now, try to max out your sleep — it really does make a difference.

At any rate, back to work. Since I’m not making any money today I either need to cull some losers or find some winners.

Not finished, obviously. I am curious as to what metric you value and would appreciate some feedback so that I can place said metrics on the summary page. What I have now will stream dynamically, adjusting to price movement, so anything static — like revenues or earnings would be an idiots choice.

Still finalizing new stock summary page. Added YTD return. Let me know if you want any metric added. All data stream and adjust to price in RT. pic.twitter.com/8kzWjCVdpa

— Stocklabs (@stocklabs_io) February 6, 2020

Sign up for free access to beta trials here.

Off to the gym.

Looks like gold is the outperformer again, which is way under-owned by people…by the way. The commodity has held firm this entire run in stocks and is at recent highs. If it could ever get over $1600, it might be something to act upon.

To be honest, today is a big disappointment. Although I’m up and making some money, I expected a lot more — a cocaine rally for the ages. Instead, I get this… milquetoast.

A few IPOs today, including Casper the online mattress co. Call me olde fashioned, but I like to feel the mattress first before buying. And, how do they manage the expenses for shipping a fucking mattress? Seems like a scam.

Coronavirus blah blah blah. Lots of rain here in Cary. The weather is very mild, nearly 70, not missing the snow shoveling days of the northeast.