iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,200 Blog Posts

GOLDMAN PROJECTS WORST GDP DECLINE IN HISTORY; GOLDMAN BEING COURTED TO OVERSEE BAILOUT

Lots of shit to go through, headlines that leaked out sneakily last night.

MNUCHIN COURTS GOLDMAN TO OVERSEE $200B BAILOUT.

Mnuchin was a partner at Goldman, just like Dad. Now he’s tapping them for the bailout. While Goldman is more than capable, it doesn’t seem right.

WHITE HOUSE ECONOMIC ADVISER KUDLOW SAYS SENATE PACKAGE BEING NEGOTIATED WOULD BE WORTH MORE THAN $2 TRILLION

Everyone is getting bailed out, from airlines to restaurants, even Fintech firms want govt tit.

Before Fed Acted, Leverage Burned Hedge Funds in Treasury Market

Basis traders were borrowing as much as 50 times their wagers

ExodusPoint, LMR Partners among the losers in popular trade

The firms use borrowed money from the repurchase market for the popular basis trade, which exploits price differences between cash Treasuries and futures. Leveraged funds’ exposure to the basis strategy could be as much as $650 billion, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said.

ZH out with a big story, highlighting a highly 50x leveraged trade that was done in recent years that could be the cause of the Fed intervention. Hint: another bailout.

The Federal Reserve is already about halfway done in a single week with at least $700 billion of bond purchases to provide emergency liquidity to financial markets, delivering a clear sign that it could blow past that marker.

That was fast. More BRRRRRRRRRRRrrrr.

Goldman Sachs economists forecast a historically sharp and swift recession, with second-quarter GDP sinking a stunning 24% after a 6% decline in the first quarter.

-24% seems rather conservative. On the other side of this, Goldman is projecting +12% for Q3.

DJ SOLOMON FROM $GS GETS 20% RAISE IN SALARY TO $27.5m

DJ Sol earned the big bucks in 2019. Should we now take away his earnings in 2020?

Three things I am interested in the week to come.

  1. What happens to high yield debt, now that WTI is below $20?
  2. What happens to leveraged loans, now that the c0mplex is blown out? Most of these loans are bullshit CLOs that are ‘covenant light.’
  3. Does the rate of change of infected people in America and Europe dissipate or hockey stick?

That’s all that matters now. I strongly advise you to ignore the advice from your fee based financial advisors and go to cash. You go to cash, not because you think stocks are expensive and go lower — but because you’re unsure what the future holds. You cannot invest on a model that shows -24% GDP with the entire globe on shut down. There is perma-bull and then delusional. You can always buy back later, EVEN AT HIGHER PRICES — god forbid.

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89 comments

  1. Orson

    Isn’t this firm too busy doing God’s work?

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  2. itsgold

    I concur.

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  3. tha pirate

    Sick of the leftist media afraid to call this a Chinese/Wuhan Virus and following the Communist Party of China’s propaganda points.

    How about we have the CHINESE government pay for the bailout? Didn’t the virus begin there? Didn’t they try to cover it up and not cooperate with US scientists to help research the problem? Didn’t they complain when other nations shut their borders to Chinese citizens and say it was “unfair”? -and while were on that, why is the leftist media in the USA doing their bidding and using Chinese government talking points? West Nile flu, Rocky Mountain fever.. it is not “racist” to call a disease by the place it originated.

    No matter how you look at it this will be an economic burden to the entire world and the Chinese government (not Chinese people of course) ARE responsible to a large degree for not ameliorating the damages earlier. I say let the Chinese government pay, and if they refuse, let the USA default on payments to China and let them pay for the mess they made

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    • tha pirate

      By the way, the Chinese government has treated it’s citizens horrendously by any measure (not to mention citizens of Hong Kong and Tibet). The world has let the Chinese Communist party get away with too much for too long and I wonder why the media is not more outraged – seems they hate to criticize Socialist/Communist governments

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      • heckler

        FUCK CHINA. Those motherfuckers haven’t even started messing with us yet

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    • traderconfessions
      traderconfessions

      They will surely pay.. right after Mexico pays for The Wall..

      Not sure it makes sense to continually bash China when most of our medical supplies come from there and they have incident knowledge that can help us manage the shit show your Oranged God created. Stay healthy.

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    • edge

      Trump really does mean China virus in a racist manner. That virus was going to get here and, no, I don’t buy the conspiracy theory that it was engineered.
      Our biggest problem with this disease is a doofus president who knew in plenty of time. He didn’t recognize the danger because he’s incompetent.
      IMO we have given away too much to the Chiese but imaginary slights and economy destroying trade wars are a really bad idea. The big problem was in allowing the industrialists to destroy our job base.

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      • Mr. Cain Thaler

        How exactly does one reclaim one’s industrial base from a nation using product dumping without a trade war?

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        • edge

          Somehow production has to make it’s way back here. That will start when people here realize the necessity.
          Obviously, there has to be sea change of attitudes and assumptions about the economic necessity of having more and better jobs.

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        • jbandy

          I have simple, elegant solution to solve all our problems. Nuke China. No more global viruses from there and no more industrial base (i.e. it has to move back here). That is what you call a win-win.

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        • numbersgame

          I think a trade war is completely necessary. It’s completely naive to think that Americans will suddenly start to buy more American after 40 years of the opposite trend. The trend starte because Americans wanted to increase their satndard of living withotu thinking about the long-term consequences (buying cheaper foreign goods). Now, many of them don’t have the financial resources to make that decision.

          The reason that China has advanced so far in the last 20 years is because of their protectionist policies. This allowed them to increase improts while simulataneously protecting (then feldgling) industries from more advanced multi-nationals.

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  4. ericbakerbruce

    There is blood in the streets. Hysterical pussies everywhere. I am 100% long starting Monday.

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    • Dr. Fly

      GOOD LUCK FUCKED FACE.

      IHS Markit PREDICTS $11 BRENT

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      • ericbakerbruce

        Fuck you too. I told you yesterday. Trump will make a deal with Putin this weekend. Sanctions lifted, Putin and Saudis kiss and make up. It’s gonna happen.

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        • roguewave

          Some have said Trump is Putin’s pawn. Johnny nonsense of course. There will be no Putin deal.

          The Saudi’s won’t pee without asking us first. Where did they get all those arms?
          They are pumping like hell only with our explicit approval and encouragement. This is the plan.

          As your host stated a few days ago, this is a hard reset.

          Oil crash + the Corona debacle will bankrupt much of the world.
          After a few weeks of this, hungry people will riot. Then the troops come in.
          What the plan is after martial law is anyone’s guess.

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      • tjnyt

        Hi Doc:A friend of fr, works at GS told on Feb 6, crash is coming, last week GS tells a conference of 1500 investors COVID is just a cold, now they are gonna manage recovery. Nice work if you have advance knowledge and connections and capital.

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    • traderconfessions
      traderconfessions

      Britney Spears is giving 100 bucks to those falling on hard times. Maybe you should sign up after you go all in.

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  5. Po Pimp

    Didn’t these fuckers just last week say everything was going to be cool? They predicted a 20% drop in GDP but the market wasn’t going to be bothered by that.

    BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA…

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  6. x59121

    Just to be clear on what a cov-lite loan actually is, the vast majority of them have no covenants so long as there is not a significant portion of the revolving credit facility drawn. But, when a certain threshold on the revolver is hit (usually around 40%), they have a springing covenant that comes into play, most likely on total leverage. Given just about every company I know of has drawn at least a portion of their revolver to ensure they have adequate liquidity to make it through the unknown, it’s probably safe to say a good portion of cov-lite loans now have a covenant. And if they don’t now, they will soon. That being said, covenants aren’t going to be the biggest concern and what kills the leveraged loan market, liquidity is. If this continues for a few months, I would expect companies to pull back on interest payments as liquidity gets tight, which in their minds (and probably the lender’s mind too) is probably better than missing payroll which would be almost instant death for a company.

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  7. Dr. Fly

    REMINDER:

    Your feelings do not change the facts on the ground. You might be “tough” but GDP is still going to zero.

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    • fluxcapacitor

      GDP is going to zero? Because of a common cold that has killed a grand total of 250 people? Who are you, and where’s the real Fly?

      The doctors who are in hysterics over this are the same numbskulls who are the target of every bullshit penny stock / real estate / bogus tax shelter / private equity scam ever.

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      • bambam

        Forget cash. In a true downturn, I don’t want your stupid useless paper money. I’d want guns, ammo, water, food, shelter, and safety. Not some lame ass stack of bills.

        I’ll continue to dollar cost average and own a lot more shares lower when then eventually return to normalcy.

        And if we don’t, see point above.

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        • edge

          Hold cash. If the USD fails you’re fucked anyway. There will be no place to hide.

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          • bambam

            See my point above and add in an RV so you can go somewhere else.

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        • taxmonster

          Love this comment. How true is it.

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        • numbersgame

          I understand the knee-jerk “guns and ammo” arguement, but what kind is the actual sequnece of events that would lead to this dystopia?

          For starters, don’t forget that the DoD has more guns and ammo that the rest of the world -incuding private US citizens – combined. You can bet that the those in power will use the DoD guns against yours and win. Also, with nuclear war, we would hit a point in whcih it coudl be very difficult to recover. However, economic downturns – evena Depression – are a different animal altogether. We’ll see China-like martial law in the US before we see every-man-for-yourself chaos.

          On the other hand, food hoarding is 100% advised, just becausae of supply disruptions, though. Store will be well stocked next year, so don’t go overboard.

          Water will be as safe and available in 6 motnhs foreward as it was 6 months ago.

          (njnyt – this is what I mean when say the public will panic irrationally)

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      • traderconfessions
        traderconfessions

        Hope you catch a cold and die of stupidity.

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      • alty

        Still waiting for someone with a response like this to stop by a local ER and report back.

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      • numbersgame

        Not surprised at all that this kind of deep thinking comes for soemeone that excludes foreigners as “people”.

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    • heckler

      It’s not really about being tough man. It’s about being able to hit the changeup

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    • edge

      I don’t know what is going to happen but I see the liquidity threat before us. We really are in a great deal of danger. I don’t know how it could be more obvious.
      The number 1 goal here needs to be survival.
      There will always be opportunities to make money IF you have capital.

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      • heckler

        Like right now for example I could close yet another winning crypto trade in XTZ from this morning

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    • tjnyt

      The economy has been brought to a standstill, why not the market.

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  8. heckler

    Remember back in the ’90s when the government told you that if you fucked a girl without a condom you’d get AIDS?? Well if that was true I’d have a lot of AIDS, I mean a lot 😉

    As Bob Marley predicted, this is a crisis that can be solved by laying on your couch and smoking weed. With money you get in the mail! Easiest crisis ever.

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  9. alty

    Everybody who has ever invested during our darkest days has ultimately been rewarded. There’s no reason to think this time is different.

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    • numbersgame

      There’s ALWAYS a reason to think that this time *might* be different. Also, “ultimately” is pretty vague. Are you talkign 10 months or 10 years?

      Fly is right: when your risk/return probability curve looks like a barbell, cash is king.

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    • edge

      Just my opinion but this the worst we’ve seen.

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    • narcist

      We’re nowhere near the darkest days.

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  10. numbersgame

    The Senate mulled several days over a bill that was just going to pay for covid-19 tests, and expense directly to blu-collar workers affected.

    Now they want tyo fast-track a $2,000,000,000,000.00 bill that would provide $1200 to individuals and $10,000,000 to bsuiness. These are “loans” in the loosests sense. because they are forgivaebale if used to pay employees. So Taxapyers will be footing the full tab not just for waitresses that lost their job, but for $250/hr consultants and lawyers workign from hoem again.

    As a Taxpayer, I object to paying $100,000+ to a lawyer and $15k to a waitresss. Who needs the money more? It shoudl be a flat $10/hour offset paymetn – just enough to get peoepl by, not another gift to the 1%. Taht is why the price tgag has risen: the Republican saw their chance o use this cirsis to enrich their clients again. Will the Democrats let them? As a reminder. Looks like Millenials and Gen Z will be paying the Boomers, just as I had predicted.

    Also, simple math says that the average citizen will be receiving $1200, but the bill costs $3000 per person. Hmmm, I wonder why the wealth gap is so hard to reduce…? More trickle-up sconmic polices aren’t goign to work.

    Then beside the bailout today, corpoatrtions will have losse that they can carry forward to the future, so the true prce tag is even higher htan $2T

    Also, Republincas are quick to say “No corparate buybakcs”, but that only applies to the money *directly* from this bill. Make a profit next year, and buy back all the stocks you want.

    This bill is the biggests “Fuck you” to the bottom 80% since the 2018 Tax Bill

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    • numbersgame

      S.3548 – CARES Act <- even the name is a ironic fuck you, knowing that most people (even legilators) won't read the actaul bill

      https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/3548/text#toc-idCCF73EAEF8454D2A8B29B9DF4626458E

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    • edge

      Moral hazard. The wealthy buy the politicians who can be counted on to deliver. So why not piss away cash that could used to keep away threats to your business when you can just tap the public? The risk is socialized. Not the profits.
      Companies need to be stress tested. No dividends or buyback without adequate capital reserves.
      If we give up money they give up shares.
      Executives need to be held liable both financially and legally. Sued for every penny and jailtime.

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      • x59121

        I agree some of the buybacks have been egregious and those companies ought to be held accountable. That being said, keep in mind there are many businesses that that didn’t do buybacks that are now being forced to close by the government to save a population of senior citizens who aren’t their client base anyway. Believe me, these businesses would much rather be open, and if they were, they would be making money and would have no need for potential assistance from the government. This is the government’s choice, they’ve chosen to hit pause on the economy to “save” a certain demographic of the population. Businesses did not choose this. You also say if ‘we give up money’, as if individuals are the only ones who pay taxes. I can assure you businesses pay plenty of taxes, and the government will get their pound of flesh from business profits on the backend of this.

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        • edge

          There are no simple solutions and the current conditions are unique.
          But the cycle of irresponsibility and bailout has to stop. These are a few ways to do it.

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        • numbersgame

          x59121,

          It’s not black or white: I’m in favor of giving aid to workers and businesses that have been impacted by this pandemic. However, the aid should be just enoguh to survive on until this passes.

          And we should NOT be giving MORE money to those that need it LESS. This is why their shoudl be a low cap on per employee reimbursments. Let’s say that a law firm has to shut t doors (even thoguh many can wrok from home…). Should the taxpayers be paying them $100-200/hour to do so (ignoring that many white-collar worker/firms will probably end up defrauding the govenerment and “double-dip”, continue t owork while colelcting form the governement).

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      • Orson

        Legislation is the key.
        Reinstate Glass – Steagall.
        Abolish the FED, lobbyism, special interest groups, and donations to political candidates.
        10 + years ago the decisions made to remedy the “crisis” were wrong. Illegitimate use of federal authority. Too much credit then, and now. Collateral needs to be mandated.
        Ridiculous business model for Bear, Lehman, etc… Use short term paper to fund long term investments.

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      • flea

        This fiscal response has been made so large (“going big”) to take your eye off the real crime: *monetary policy*. The $1200 is to buy off the sucker population and keep them from seeing the absolute monetary fleecing.

        For example the Primary Dealer Credit Facility is back up monetizing the ugliest crap out there for the 1% but nobody in Washington gives a shit because they’ve taken their eye off the ball.

        And now Rand Paul has the corona – not that he wasn’t overwhelmed already by the sheer audacity of this last gasp of fiat wealth preservation.

        I actually look forward to Bernie and Faux-cahontas being back because even if they have the absolute wrong solution they do have the moxie to go after the snake at it’s real source.

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  11. heckler

    I guess my risk tolerance has always been high RIP https://youtu.be/7hx4gdlfamo

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  12. wolfdaddy

    103.5 fever. Massive fuckjng headache and chills that keep your breath away. And I work in healthcare in a very social role. This is bad and and he panic hasn’t event started yet.

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    • i_am_nemo

      wolfdaddy,

      Watch your temp. If it goes over 104, call 911. Take some Tylenol, not Ibuprofen. Get well soon and let us know you are OK.

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  13. moosh

    Maybe one day, banks will create a scheme where people choose to pay said banks to hold/use and basically own their hard earned money

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  14. edge

    Where we are now. I think.
    The debate about the wisdom of lockdowns is over at the highest levels.
    Yes, the damage done to the economy will be immense. The people responsible all seem to agree that allowing unlimited human carnage is a bad decision and one they’re not willing to make. Admit it. You would do the same thing.
    Massive government intervention has to be a big part of the solution. Either that or unimaginable destruction.
    It is not known how global bond markets will react to the trillions of treasuries that need to be sold. Events of the last week or so leads me to believe interest rates must rise at least within a year in order to sell these bonds which greatly complicates the effort.
    Likely, the central bank will have to purchase some the bonds and the bond market isn’t going to like that one bit. More complication.
    If this is money is spent in a half assed or sloppy fashion it will fail to grow the economy long enough or fast enough to promote a healthy amount of inflation. Important since inflation is the only way to reduce government debt relative to GDP.
    If a good long run of adequate inflation is not achieved then we are fucked. No way will there be enough money to pick the economy up again.
    This is long enough I think. Although I would like to add that any attempt to restructure the economy (and it needs that badly) which doesn’t establish a reasonable level of middle class wealth and income is unworkable and immoral. Not that the oligarchs and kleptocratic care. They will have to be made to care.

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    • numbersgame

      Best case scenario is that nobody dies. But if people are goign to die, then nature/God-enforced term limits on Senators and Representatives would be good for our country in the long term.

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  15. sftradeallday23

    The stimulus package is actually starting to sound like a fairly solid patch to the real pain this is causing. Unemployment on steroids Schumer says with it rising to around 2 trillion package… I think we’ll get a big push Monday due to this news. I got into gold for a number of reasons Friday.. dollar swaps being pushed by fed to reduce dollar strength, panic cash raising mostly past us which pressured gold, unheard of money being printed, real risk of massive inflation due to insane stimulus worldwide in 6-8 months if this doesn’t destroy us.. guess we’ll see, but that’s where my money’s at.

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    • discoordinated

      Yeah I am kind of amazed gold didn’t go down farther considering the speed of the GDP drop that is happening. I would have thought it would deflate farther and faster. If it stabilizes here and can start to break out, then the money printing may already be putting gold on roids.

      I haven’t bought gold in a long time but I did get long Aussie dollar vs the euro as a proxy.

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    • edge

      It’s a start but already poorly thought out. Unless the virus “magically disappears” (LOL what a doosh) we’ll need at least another 3, maybe 4 trillion. I’m skeptical about the first two, that is a lot of money to extract from an economically depressed and dollar-starved world economy.
      The cash for everyone giveaway is ridiculous. Most don’t need help and the ones who do will need much more.
      If we don’t do this right there will be nothing for next time and that time could be very soon.

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    • monkeybot

      The trillions should be first set on producing the “greatest testing ramp-up the world has ever seen” – to give the orangeman a tweet.
      It’s the great “unknown” that’s constricting the economy. Throw trillions at testing to start – anybody that tests negative can volunteer to be paid at a sterilized factory to produce more tests and drive the trucks and produce goods etc. – you create a quarantined “covid-negative“ bubble – not sure exactly how – but you and expand again from there.
      Start separating infected and non-infected (without stigma).
      If you test positive you opt in to a 14-28 day quarantine zone (or maybe option of a monitored house arrest) But outside the “bubble”.
      Everyone inside the “Bubble“ can start living normally again and growing the economy as long as they don’t leave the bubble. Obviously multiple precautions will be necessary – disinfection tunnels for truck drivers etc. it is a “war” – but the the enemy is a virus and not each other. Let’s try to be smart and not throw trillions at a broken economy until we Start methodically fixing the underlying issue of testing and jeans of production rather than this waitandsee social distancing BS…

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  16. roguewave

    pelican roomers, how are the discussions? or is it just a rockfight like many boards?

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  17. narcist

    Well, at least 2 Republican state senators from Georgia are COVID positive.

    That’s good news. Better if they die very soon.

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  18. tjnyt

    I hope some in the WH watches the most important number, US deaths, and declares end of the siege.
    Call your reps, end the mass suicide of our nation.

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  19. tjnyt

    Even Cuomo in NY admitted yesterday, 40-80% will catch it, exactly what I have been saying for 10 days.

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  20. tjnyt

    I predict less than 2K total lost due to COVID in the US.

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    • narcist

      What are your credentials? Are you a licensed actuary? A biostatistics/epistemology Ph.D.?

      If not, I politely say please SHUT THE FUCK UP.

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      • covidftw

        *Ph.D. from an accredited academic institution, not Trump U/Podunk U

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      • tjnyt

        Said here repeatedly a practicing physician at the center of the epidemic, NYC.
        Do you disbelieve what gov Cuomo said and I have posted?
        Do you not believe the number of total deaths so far in the US?
        2k figure is my wild guess based upon my pulse on the center of this epidemic here in NYC.
        I can believe your ignorance and capriciousness fanning hysteria.

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      • tjnyt

        Did you learn medicine from your spouse?
        While signing a death certificate last weak I asked the undertaker if there was a backlog, he just laughed we agreed about the hysteria.

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    • numbersgame

      I’ll take the over.

      I was checking my time machine, and here’s another one of your predictions:

      “While the hysteria reaches a crescendo, the virus has already moved through a susceptible population and pandemic is on a decline.”
      https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/03/12/europe-suffers-worst-drop-history-us-markets-getting-destroyed/#comment-567421

      Now by yesterday, you had changed your opinion 180° to “Containment is impractical, does not work on respiratory viral infections,” however, that is pretty late to the game, especailly for someone with a medical background.

      Considering that Italy had 2000+ deaths in the last 3 days alone and its still rising, woudl you like to reconsider your predcition today or next week? (I undersatnd there are differnces between the USA and Italy, but the fact that the US has 6x as many peopel make up for those. Germany is counter example on the low side, but we already have double the infection rate and a much higher death rate).

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      • tjnyt

        No change in my estimation, Pandemic refers to the entire world, is on the decline, if you understand the average length of seasonal disease is 3-4 months. Ended in China, we are one month behind as for NYC is concerned. Again my thoughts, I said NYC will be the epicenter of infection in the US and it is.
        Containment does not work against highly communicable diseases simply because we are humans, can’t do what is needed. Now it has reached the halls of power.
        I am just a humble physician, and I am looking for answers from the experts and all I am getting is some boilerplate answers from Fauci, Gupta, and OZ of the word.
        The situation in Italy is sad and baffles me, is it the genetics or virulence of the strain? Fouci does not have answers. The good news is Italy says today, they over counted deaths and the number of deaths are in a decline.
        For the sane in the lay public, one number to watch is the number of dead in the US.

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  21. discoordinated

    Anyone else catch that cannon just said that he recommends merging the balance sheet of the fed with the treasury………………..ramifications of that are off the charts. (Audit the fed, end of private money control, if you merge those do we still owe interest on our own money?…) I don’t know what to say.

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  22. edge

    The virus is out of control. Expect scenes of Italy.
    No one is going to take responsibility for thousands of unnecessary deaths. So the lockdowns continue.
    This is simple. This week fear turns to terror and panic. Let’s see how cavalier you are when your mom dies.
    The bailout appears to be poorly planned. Too bad.
    This is the last chance. You might not be smart enough to figure out what this means but the bond market is.

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  23. narcist

    Sen. Rand Paul tests positive for coronavirus

    Now he must spread that shit in the Senate. Lots of prime targets over there, especially the senior senator from his state the Confederate leader Moscow Mitch.

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    • edge

      Don’t get my hopes up, I can’t take it. Too much suspense as it is.
      What am I thinkin’? It’s a hoax.

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    • Po Pimp

      If both those cunts died, all this lockdown stuff would be worth it.

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    • tjnyt

      You did not teach them the correct way to quarantine, clever.

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  24. tradercaddy

    With no live sports anywhere ESPN has officially hit bottom.
    On ESPN2 I am watching the 2019 Stupid Robot Fighting League.
    Two large robot like puppets are fighting each other.
    Help us all.

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  25. numbersgame

    Also, keep in mind that the medical experts have said that *preventing* the virus from hittign large segments of the global popualtion (ie, 20-80% of the population, 1 Billion cases, etc.) is not a realistic scenario any longer.

    “Social distanceing” is the universal recommendation. However, this is not meant to ***significantly reduce the overall cases.*** It is just meant to slow down the infection rate to avoid overwhelming the Healthcare System (which is what is ahppenign in Italy). Howevr, this just means that the ***virus stays with us longer*** – and so do the econmic decsiosn such as quarantines and curfews.

    From a purely econmic basis, letting the virus run its course and kill off baby boomers in mass numbers would have been the best decision in the short term (no shuttering of businesses) and the long term (less impact on Social Security, Medicare, and the Health Care system overall due to earlier deaths, lower natioanl debt from bailouts). Pleas note: I am not advocating that this is waht should or shouldn’t have been done, I’m just stating the economic facts.

    So now that our baby- boomer leaders have made the self-interested humanitarian decision to maximize savign lives (excuse me, lives of the wealthy as we still don’t care about the poverty-realted outcomes that have been around for years) at all costs, the decsion goign foraward has to be: “how long do we keep these quarantines and curfews?”, with the understanding that it is an on going compromise between savings lives (of the wealthy) and further econmic deterioration.

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    • numbersgame

      South Korea – a model for the way this should have been handled – has only 16 documented case of infection from China (over several weeks), 19 from the rest of Asia (over several weeks), 74 from Europe (including 54 this week), and 12 cases from America (all this week).

      20-29: 2396 infections, 0 deaths
      30-39: 909 infections, 1 death
      40-49: 1221 infections, 1 death
      50-59: 1691 infections: 7 deaths
      -> this is 0.4%, which is much higher than flu, but still not drasticly high

      60-69: 1132 infections, 17 deaths
      70-79: 595 infections, 37 deaths
      80+: 392 infections, 41 deaths

      https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030&act=view&list_no=366621&tag=&nPage=1

      When this is over, it will be interesting to see how many lives of the poor are lost becuase of this recession ((lose job -> malnourishment up, homelessness up, drug use up, alcoholism up, suicides up, etc.) vs how many lives of the elderly are extended by a few years.

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    • tjnyt

      How long have been shouting that message, and I am 72.

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      • numbersgame

        Answer: how long have Boomers been in control of the economy and tryign to slow problems by running up the debt?
        Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump.. although to be honest, Reagan was the start and he was no Boomer…

        Social Security, Medicare, pneison funds (publci and private) are all insolvent, while every finacail problem is solved with more debt.

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