WTI is -15%
Major hotels -25%
Gold lower
10yr yields +9bps. They’ve lost control of yields.
TDG -30%
AIG -20%
PENN -37%, RIP PREZ
AL -32%
MAR -30%
BA -17%
All consumer staples and grocery stores have a bid. Think about all of the money people spend at eateries. According to Exodus, publicly trades revenues for restaurants is $100b. That money is now moving to your grocer. Stop n Shop is the new Nordstroms. There will be MASSIVE multiple expansion there.
Forget about MCO and TRU — credit scores mean nothing now. We are barreling towards another -7% trading halt.
Why?
Because this is going to be the worst depression in the history of America.
We’re thru the fucking floor boards again. You thought you’d make it, instead you’re now BOGGED the fuck out and broke.
In a meeting with GOP Senators, Mnuchin warned of a very obvious 20% unemployment rate, and soon, if they didn’t acquiesce and empty the fucking coffers.
SCOOP: Mnuchin warned the U.S. could see 20% unemployment in a meeting with Republican senators on Tuesday, sources tell @josh_wingrove , me and @JenniferJJacobs
In other news, Boeing is requesting a bail out of TENS OF BILLIONS. Let’s have a look at their fucking share buy backs since 2008. Literally wasted capital.
Dow futs are -900, Nasdaq -300, WTI a 26 handle -1.8%.
Markets +1000, oil -6%, UNPRECEDENTED moves in bond market with 10yr shooting higher 30bps to over 1.02%. Gold up 3%, yet silver down. CLX and GIS higher double digits, homebuilders and big REITs like SPG down double digits. What in the fuck is going on here?
Might I make a suggestion? Lower the volume for we have entered into a NEW FAG-BOX on the SMH, which incidentally is an olden FAG-BOX.
Here is what is notable. Stop looking at the knee-jerks reactions. You want to fix yourself on the areas of the market most affected by the shutdown.
That’s a lot of red for such a BOOLISH day. This is one of those rare opportunities where government has no control over the narrative. The quarantine is in effect. You cannot go anywhere, visit people in large numbers, and carry on with your lives. You are all prisoners and you ought to get used to it — because it might last a long long time. This is quite literally the worst environ to invest in markets in the history of markets. Nothing compares, not even 1929.
Happy St. Paddy’s day for all those celebrating. We all know St. Paddy’s day isn’t really an Irish holiday, but an American excuse to get drunk and eat meat and potatoes. Might I add, the people who seem to enjoy the holiday most aren’t Irish, in my experience. So cheers to you and I hope you can enjoy today’s festivities whilst in QUARANTINE.
As for me, booze free, been that way since November. I didn’t have a life shattering event and someone didn’t pull me over to the side and say “seek help.” I just looked at myself and wanted to get fit again — so I’ve been a lunatic at the gym and even crazier in the kitchen, adhering to a very low carb, high protein regimen. I’ve always been skinny, but I was skinny-fat. Presently I’m about 16-17% body fat, and I feel great. I’ve been very fit numerous times during my illustrious career as a stock blogger, but I intend to really go the extra yard this time around.
Also, and I must admit, booze is something I sometimes used as a crutch. I was a MARTINIFAG, always drinking sophisticated COCKEDtails, but boozing it up nonetheless. Since I’ve stopped, my mind is clearer and my body feels perfect. No more hangovers, no more dehydration, no more blurred out social gatherings.
I’m not preaching or judging — just sharing.
I couldn’t get a corned beef today and barely got a cabbage. I had to kill some for one. So I’m cooking a chuck roast with pickling seasonings and beer. Since I am a MASTER CHEF, it will come out better than average.
As for markets — big run. I have one play to share — ODP, based off the migration of the entire workforce of America into their homes. There is a MASSIVE swell of new equipment sales now, as people get situated.
Govt will provide $1t to buy commercial paper.
Mnuchin said govt will send checks out to all Americans.
Mnuchin said markets will remain open, but hours might shorten.
These measure provided the tinder for a furious short covering rally. Big moves across the board. Before this lift, we were seeing tremendous moves in consumer staples like CLX +14% and all grocery stores and food suppliers, even wholesalers. I mean, both TR and HSY higher by 13%.
Today’s leading industries.
I know you’re eager to hear about what I plan to do now, since I sold out of my accounts yesterday. Let me remind you, small pleb, I booked a 71% overnight gain in APRN this morning — meaning even at a 5% holding my ENTIRE portfolio is higher by 3.5% today. My Quant and retirement accounts can wait it out. The night is long and filled with terrors.
All day on CNBC there were clowns in suits discussing the specter of V shaped recoveries. While soothing and nice to hear, these people do not deserve it. They’re monsters! People eventually get what they deserve and all of this MALFEASANCE and RIGGING comes at an expense. You can only jimmy-rig markets for so long and I hope I’m wrong about this. Naturally I enjoy bull markets and like making money without having to worry. But let’s start to see people being allowed to walk outside first, before we go ahead and pop those champagne corks.
The Fed is going in full compliments and will be funding companies directly, via this facility. As a result, markets have bounced a little and European trade has firmed. However, I am VERY concerned about how several sectors are trading — very spooky.
I have a Corona Fears index and it’s getting lit up today, off by 6%. My tell is BA — down another 16%.
I’m still all cash, only holding bonds and 1 virus stock. Fed policy helps, but it doesn’t lift the quarantine.
We were supposed to be ‘limit up’ but something went wrong from last night until now. That something is the X factor — when the fuck will business get back to normal? Who is going to backstop all of those payrolls?
NYC is talking about backstopping 40% of payroll and lending money to small businesses for zero percent rates up to $75k. The issue with that, they’ll need to issue munis for it and the climate for such an offering isn’t good. I do think something like that, but on a national level, is needed now. God help us if this lasts thru August.
The Guardian in the UK reported on a ‘secret note’ they read, which stated this could last until NEXT SPRING. Fuck me.
Watch European markets for a tell. We might still get a furious rally today, but we might also COLLAPSE under the weight of our own hubris.
I sold APRN which I bought yesterday for an overnight win of +71%, which places me in an excellent vantage point to exert some more risk here — feeling good about my prospects and luck now.
The algos are fucked. Trading desks do not know what to do. Be careful.
In the morning, as told on Saturday, I blew out of my entire Quant and retirement accounts — leaving only TLT. As much as it pains me to sell, I felt it was a decision I needed to take — as I STEEL MYSELF from the horrors of this decline.
This afternoon in a press conference, Trump and his Coronavirus task force spoke in gloomy terms and suggested this crisis could in fact last thru August.
At my local Harris Teeter, the produce guy sat there doing nothing — produce shut down for at least a week. The suppliers are out of stock.
In the market, we saw stocks like CLX, GIS, and KMB do well — as consumer staples becomes the go to denizen for cash looking for a home.
I was SHOCKED by the decline in the Russell 2000 — down more than 15%. More than that, giant financial institutions like PUK, JPM, and C were lower by 15%-25%. These aren’t ordinary declines and if you were to ask me if any company in the Dow could make it under lockdown until August, I’d be hard pressed to give you a confident answer.
CAPEX is going to zero.
Share buy backs ZERO.
Unemployment will rise to over 10% within a week.
This is a financial shock that will ruin the US economy. I’m afraid of the ramifications of all the bailouts might mean for the dollar, to be honest. I do not believe banks can remain solvent with every company under the sun drawing from their LOCs.
Major disruptions in the leverage loan markets and of course MBS and corporates. Junk bonds ripped to shreds. Expect another significant Fed action tonight or tomorrow, targeting commercial paper, followed up with something on the fiscal side. I want to be wrong — but am afraid I will be proven unbelievably right — yet again.
I took the small pause in selling after the trading halt this morning to LIQUIDATE all of my holdings. I then attempted a few trades on the long side, only to get BOGGED the fuck out.
Net net, maybe a loss of 100bps, on top of the losses I endured in the drawdown in my tankers. I was 75% cash heading into today, so not that big a dent. I am now replete with cash and only long treasuries. I do not like the action at all and do not like the idea of holding 3x inverses overnight either, since a short sale ban might be coming.
Supply chains are seizing up and toilet paper is a luxury now. We are staring down the barrel of a loaded pistol that is more apt to blow our faces off than offer us a free blow job.
DO YOURSELVES A FAVOR and heed my warnings: WE CANNOT STOP THE SELLING.
I might attempt some more day trades — because I like to trade. All in all, credit markets are being supported by the Fed on the treasury level — so TLT, TMF and ZROZ are SAFU.
