18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,662 Blog Posts

A Spike in Natty Will Kill People

Literally. See, people can go without gasoline. Lots of indigenous folk do not drive cars and rely on welfare for their food and shit. However, you start fucking with the price of natty, then you will see outright revolt amongst the poor kind.

Natty is used to heat homes. It is used to generate electricity. If it keeps going up, it will rape this country of all discretionary income.

I know a few independent natural gas drillers. “The Fly” has quite a few “Nat Vegas” players on his client roster. They (the drillers) know the spike in price is bullshit. Some of the bigger dogs were capping their wells, a few years ago, due to lack of demand. Now, all of a sudden, natty is printing $11.50?

What the fuck?

I will not fight this trend. It is beyond control. The spike in commodities is pervasive. It is infecting everything and it is too powerful to bet against.

With oil and natty up at these levels, you’d have to be fucking nuts not own energy stocks.

Currently, I own [[ARD]], [[NGAS]], [[RIG]], [[OMNI]], [[IOC]] and [[NOV]].

My watch list includes:

[[GLBL]], [[WFT]], [[TRGL]], [[FPP]], [[FTK]], [[FTI]], [[EGY]], [[MIND]], [[CLHB]], [[HP]], [[RRC]] and ETF’s [[GAZ]] and [[UGA]].

NOTE: The yen is trouncing the dollar. Watch [[FXY]].

Comments »

Fly Buys: BAP, NOV

I bought 1,000 [[BAP]] @ $81 and 1,000 [[NOV]] @ $76.25.

Disclaimer: If you buy the above stocks because of this post, a wild bear will bite your arms  off. And, you may lose money.

Comments »

An iBC Call To Arms

Thus far, you fucktards have let “The Fly” down.

Listen to me. I am going to lunch now. When I get back, I better see “The Fly” in first place. I don’t ask for much, aside from total victory in meaningless internet elections.

Voting ends on Monday.

Click here to vote for “The Fly.”

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ra70O9nps6E 450 300]


Comments »

Fuck the Banks, part IV

What, you thought I’d back away from my “fuck the banks” approach to investing, due to a little morning strength?


The [[SKF]] just put itself in a new trading range, with todays move. Barring more Fed “magic,” I think SKF trades up to $120.

My top brokerage shorts, [[LEH]] and [[MER]], have a lot further to go—lower that is.

On the long side, [[RACK]] is working. And, [[NOV]] appears to be eating RIG‘s lunch.

Ag stocks appear to be asleep or some shit, since [[POT]] is not up another $5. I will cease calling a top in ag, since it is utter useless banter.

Keep an eye on [[WBD]]. That fucker looks like it can roll a lot further downhill. And, finally, Chinese fuckery is back in play. The sector looks like shit. Hence, [[FXP]] looks golden.

Comments »

Learn to Control Your Stupidty

Most pikers dream of buying the next [[MSFT]] or [[POT]], before anyone else, hit it big— then retire rich on an island, spending most of their days drinking queer pina coladas.

The reality is: most small investors, who gamble in the market, will be eliminated from the game. Wiped out. These are the people who “trade” from one momentum stock to the next, without rhyme or reason, often using leverage or options to “juice the returns.”

They’re just looking to make it fucking big.

Once again, this practice is asinine. If I were President, I’d arrest these people and force them to work in coal mines, or wash the windows of skyscrapers.

Everyone has their own asset allocation strategy. Some people believe having 200% of their dollars in POT, [[MON]], [[COP]] and [[AUY]] is diversification. Tragically, those people will fall victim to the “black lung” disease, under a Fly administration.

Just know, there are 10 principal sectors in the S&P 500, the benchmark for all investor performance.

Here are the sectors, broken down by weighting:

1. Financials: 17%

2. Technology: 16%

3. Energy: 14%

4. Industrials: 13%

5. Healthcare: 12%

6. Consumer Staples: 9%

7. Consumer Discretionary: 7%

8. Materials: 5%

9. Utilities: 4%

10. Telco: 3%

Now, if you only want to abide by the weighting of the S&P, go ahead. It’s not a bad weighting and will ensure proper diversification. However, when selecting the stocks, make sure to avoid overweighting speculative crap.

For example: Let’s say you have 100k to invest. Using recent S&P data, 14k will go into energy stocks. But, use your fucking head. Do not put the whole 14k in some bullshit ethanol play. Go mainstream with the bulk of it, think [[XOM]], [[COP]] or [[SLB]]. Then, with a smaller piece, buy speculation. Typically, I buy 3 stocks per group.

So, within energy, I might have 5k in [[COP]], 5k in [[CVX]] and 4k in [[NGS]], or some other spec play. In the event my NGS position blows the fuck up, losing 50% in one day, my losses will be minimized to a mere 2% of the entire portfolio. Hence, the reason why diversification is so important.

Also, when putting together the portfolio, be sure to properly identify companies and the sectors they belong in.

For example: [[FCX]] is a material stock and [[FWLT]] is an industrial. This is basic shit.

Personally, under normal market conditions, I’d deviate away from the standard S&P 500 weighting. Right now, my model weighting is the following:

1. Financials: 5%

2. Technology: 15%

3. Energy: 15%

4. Industrials: 15%

5. Healthcare: 10%

6. Consumer Staples: 10%

7. Consumer Discretionary: 7%

8. Materials: 10%

9. Utilities: 5%

10. Telco: 3%

11. Cash: 5%

However, because of what I deem to be “unusual market conditions,” I have suspended this allocation and have hedged with a multitude of inverse ETF’s and short positions—as you already know.

With experience, you can move away from a strict allocation and try to “scalp” gains, especially in a fast market. Nonetheless, for most novice investors, keeping a strict allocation is the way to go.

With regards to knowing when to sell:

I comb through my positions, once per quarter and make adjustments.

For example: With 100k invested, I have 15k wrapped up in tech. Of the 15k, 5k is in [[RIMM]]. Let’s say, over the past quarter, RIMM‘s stock price doubled, while my other tech positions were flat, bringing my tech weighting up to roughly 20%.

Under most circumstances, I will sell some RIMM, in order to bring my tech weighting back down to 15%. Or, I may elect to sell some of my other tech stocks. Either way, the weighting is coming down to 15%.

Conversely, if RIMM got cut in half, I may double my position, in order to bring my tech weighting up to 15%.

Essentially, the system is designed to help you lighten up on runaway sectors, in a measured way. And, it will prompt you to buy some of the weak ones (sectors), when warranted.

Comments »



UPDATE: Remember to defeat the “Dealmakers.” Vote Fly.

Don’t ask me why I want to win this thing. I just fucking do. You’d think, with all the fucking work I put in here, helping you fucktards, I could get a measly 10,000 votes.

Comments »

I am Busy. Therefore, I am Leaving

Do not ask any questions or query the mind of a “market scientist.”

“The Fly” has many things to do—with very little time.

I wrapped up my day with another [[MER]] short sale. I am taking a risk, adding to my financial shorts here. The conservative play is to take my six figure win and go play “punch the old guy down the elevator shaft.” However, I’m not into small wins or minor triumphs.

I bank coin, at profuse rates, even when I try to lose money.

In short, I am handsomely short equities, via [[FXP]], [[SRS]], [[SKF]], [[MER]], [[POT]] and [[LEH]].

My top long bets are [[RACK]], [[AAPL]], [[NOV]], [[LAZ]], [[GD]], [[CTRP]] and [[NILE]] for the fuck of it.

Later on tonight, I will teach the internet how to properly diversify a portfolio.

Until then, fuck off and be well.

Comments »

UPDATE: Party Over

Bulls taking control here.

They are piling into the banks, trying to paint the pig with gold. As of now, the [[SKF]] has NOT broken out, so be careful with your positions here.

For a trade, I like [[RACK]], [[CTRP]] and [[JOE]].

UPDATE: That was fun. I still own the above names. However, in the interim, my gut says we’re done going up.

Top pick: Short [[LEH]]

Comments »

Bulls Going Back to the Well

The same old names are running, with a marked exception to the dastardly bastards from [[POT]].

Going over my daily screens, I see the old infrastructure/energy complex is booking higher, while financials lag. There are sizable gains in [[PCR]], [[CNH]], [[FLR]], [[FWLT]], [[URS]], [[ACM]], [[MDR]], [[GLBL]], [[NOV]], [[EAC]], [[CCJ]], [[ENER]], [[CSIQ]], [[FTI]], while weakness persists in [[DSL]], [[FIG]], [[RDN]], [[CCRT]], [[FED]], [[MS]] and [[UBS]].

Also, it’s worth noting the calamitous decline in refiners, namely [[VLO]], [[TSO]], [[HOC]], [[DK]], [[WNR]], [[SUN]] and [[ALJ]]. Being long the intergrators, like [[XOM]], [[SLB]] and [[COP]], and short the refiners, has been a great trade and will probably continue to work.

Select Chinese fuckery stocks are bouncing, namely [[CTDC]], [[MR]], [[CHU]], [[CHA]], [[CN]] and [[SOHU]]. Keep an eye on [[JADE]] for a possible lotto winner.

Latin American cell phone player, [[NIHD]], is poppin, while [[CTSH]], [[OSTK]], [[NTES]], [[CLWR]] and [[TKC]] eat dirt.

Within the food and beverage space, the big beverage giants look good, namely [[KO]] and [[PEP]]. In addition, with [[HANS]] getting its balls boxed off, I sort of like the valuation. However, I would not go all in. Just a nibble.

New issue [[DPS]] will probably kick ass. And, fake butter (Symbol) and health nut company, [[SMBL]], looks like it wants to trade higher. I’d wait for a pullback.

Some stupid bagel maker, [[BAGL]], is surging on good earnings. But, it will not last. And, [[BRL]] is having its guts ripped out and roasted.

Let’s not forget the daily metal surge in [[CLF]], [[X], [[ROCK]], [[BHP]] and [[PKX]]. Regrettably, [[SWC]] looks decent, down at these levels.

That pretty much sums up todays trade.

Comments »