For 2009, I will make a sincere effort to cast away all inverse/upside etf’s. They are a disease on Wall Street. They represent everything that is stupid in finance, from the leverage to the asinine ways they are calculated.
While it’s true, being long 10,000 SRS on a 9 point day can be fun; it also can twist your stomach into knots when the opposite occurs, going up. For the love of large intestines and sanity, in 2009, “The Fly” will “go old school” and start short selling individual names directly, rather than through proxies.
Today is options expiration, so expect to get jerked around all day. The auto bailout is a fucking joke and the Treasury is about to steal another $350 billion from the U.S. tax payers.
What else is new?
As you know, I was supportive of the original TARP program. Many of you were against it and you were right. I thought the money would be used to provide liquidity and help the economy get going again. However, thus far, it appears the banks are hording the cash and/or using it for bonuses (GS) or to make acquisitions. And, to boot, there is no oversight. No one really knows where the money is going.
To put it plainly: Paulson and Co. are fucking ransacking the treasury and no one give two fucks and a gay fiddle about it, sans some dick head bloggers.
Into this strength, I want to short a little more XOM and KIM. In addition, into a significant oil charge, I will short more RIG.
The reason why I chose to short XOM, instead of a lesser name, is due to volatility. Shorting XOM, north of $81, represented little upside risk, whereas, shorting a stock like GMXR or NOV could easily rip my face off in a matter of hours.
The play on KIM is pretty straight forward: their tenants are liquidating. It’s just a matter of time until some of the lesser quality REITS run into some cash flow issues.
For now, I’ll just sit here and wait.
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Sounds like a good plan Senior.
so DUG is not a good choice now either? Seems that if XOM goes down, DUG should go up?
Great post: ideas and explanation.
So, you’re saying only dick head bloggers give a rats ass about how TARP is being mismanaged?
I’m the only one?
What are you saying?
Sorry Fly, but I highly doubt that you will stay away from leveraged ETF’s. Their lure is just too strong for your little greed gremlin. You are already fiending for FAZ at the close and thats a 3x. I am sure you are sincere in your attempt at rehabilitation but you know you are just too damn greedy for that.
He is saying that most people have their head up their ass and don’t even see how we are being robbed by Paulson and company. the media is too busy with sensational stories like Madoff the huckster and the GM failout than to see the bigger heist of the Treasury.
No more vix … seriously.. thats a joke.. volatility is inherent in this market… no way around it.. a bunch of headline traders compounded with tax loss selling and constant gov intervention.. common
how about TBT
Don’t go to rehab. Rehab -> bad.
GM said nothing to lead us to believe they will be able to pay back this money by March. They will fail the money will be wasted and the public will get fucked. Just like the TURD TARP program.
So “The Fly” is going Old School in 2009 !
———————
No more leveraged ETF’s ?
Huh? I’ll believe it when I see it !
What’s next ?
“The Fly” changes his quote screen BACK TO FRACTIONS ?
Say it ain’t so…Champ…say it ain’t so !!!
.
I wanted the Auto guys to go bankrupt. I drive a BMW anyway. I REALLY hate the fact Bush is from Texas…he gives a bad name to all the nail-biting, shit-kicking cowboys down here. The ‘good ol boys’ would not have done TARP and would have let the auto gang fail and rust into dust.
I hope paulson gets a painful rash.
asshat of the year, Buffet?
I can’t get any shares of KIM for shorting.
Does The Fly have them all?
GM said nothing to lead us to believe they will be able to pay back this money by March. They will fail the money will be wasted and the public will get fucked. Just like the TURD TARP program.
Here’s my problem with your overall thesis Team-O…
Everyone already KNOWS all that. At least almost everyone in the markets do (Steve the Neighbor maybe not).
So the question is– why have we not already plunged to Devil Dogian Delight Land?
__________
LG-
Which do you enjoy the most?
1) Driving BMW at 150 mph
2) Making Egregious sums of coin
3) Getting Laid
I am showing 10,000+ shares to short on KIM
Donny….
there’s nothing better than making money.
with money I can drive that BMW and I can be a ‘ Cougar” and have a lot of boy toys. Last two dates I had the guys were 10 and 12 years younger.
Asshat of the Year — Bush or maybe Obama*?
______________
* To balance out his Time Magazine “Person of the Year” hagiographic cover story.
_______
Hmmmmm … Asshat of the Year
So many deserving candidates.
Hank Paulson ?
Richard Fuld ?
Bernie Madoff ?
Of course, you could go outside the business and financial world and find deserving recipients as well…
Plaxico Burress ?
In fact, Plaxico gets my vote !
I mean…the idiot shot his own damn self !
.
My understanding is the shares available for shorting depend on the shares your brokerage house has on hand, so the market at large very well may have many shares available for shorting at a time when your broker does not.
Asshat has to be Jerry Yang
What time is the X-Mas rally scheduled to start?
SLG……. SHORT THAT POS!!
Shortly, NBC will be expanding their station with a new show named Law and Order: SEC.
Alf —
If the Giants lose their third straight this weekend, I may throw my support behind your suggestion.
And let it be known, there’s no question he IS an asshat… it’s just that competition this year is so stiff.
__________
Goldie,
Nice suggestion, but wait for SLG to break 24 to be safe.
____
Somebody please wrap a scotch tape around Melissa Francis’ fucking mouth.
Asshat of the Year – Got to be Fred Wilpon – he covers so many bases:
Loser – Mets Franchise
Loser – Madoff investor
Whats not to hate?
No volatility = no-one gives a crap anymore.
Posted: 12/17/08 05:41 PM [ET]
A crumbling economy, more than 2 million constituents who have lost their jobs this year, and congressional demands of CEOs to work for free did not convince lawmakers to freeze their own pay.
Instead, they will get a $4,700 pay increase, amounting to an additional $2.5 million that taxpayers will spend on congressional salaries,
All the volatility is on CNBC for the last hour
I REALLY dont like Steve Liesman
Where is Rick Santelli when you need him?
Asshat Of The Year has to be Cramer, Kudlow or Gasparino….or maybe DevilDog…
Fly, any updates on the PPT?
No volatility = buy puts!! Anybody think IYR will be below 25 by march?
Donny,
It has to be number 2. Once that’s accomplished, the other two come naturally.
Sorry for the long post…
JPMorgan CEO Dimon to decline a bonus – source
(Recasts, changes attribution, adds background and details)
NEW YORK, Dec 19 (Reuters) – Jamie Dimon, chief executive
of JPMorgan Chase & Co , will not seek a bonus for 2008,
a person close to the matter said on Friday.
Dimon joins a raft of other chief executives who are not
receiving bonuses for a year when the credit crunch walloped
the banking sector and forced government rescues.
Banks face mounting criticism that bonus systems are
rewarding executives for taking on irresponsible risks.
Taxpayer sentiment has turned against Wall Street and its
highly paid bankers as financial companies have received
billions of dollars in government money.
Goldman Sachs Group CEO Lloyd Blankfein and Merrill
Lynch & Co Inc CEO John Thain will not receive bonuses,
according to their banks. Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack
said he will not receive a bonus for the second straight year.
Citigroup Inc board member and adviser Robert Rubin will
also not receive a bonus, according to media reports.
Anonymous….and the point is???
I tweeted: thx @sparkycollier MUST READ post on Bernanke’s Bubbles. Ponzi Schemes always end the same way
http://bit.ly/bernankeponzi
$TBT
Lady G – The point is that they didn’t deserve it anyways.
Anonymous….Da…..ya think?
Lady G there are men in Hazmats suits waiting outside your door right now.
PS: STFU!
http://timesonline.typepad.com/technology/2008/12/is-the-internet.html
Didn’t this happen before a big leg down a few months ago?
Just connecting random dots on the path of life…
I remember that Internet article, just not when it came out..
I am green right now – I bet many of you are not. The Fly has had to flee NY due to the snow – Vincenzo will handle any questions – the iBC network will remain on line due to back up equipment.
I nominate Sir Alan Greenspan for Asshat of the year.
Though his appointment is long passed, he is indeed more responsible for this Fuckery than any other.
Lady G – STFU
I just thought it was interesting. You didn’t have to read it, seriously. Did you ever recieve a comment from me about your useless comments?
“I’m an author with a book out right now”
“I have a boy who is artistic”
“I was stalked once and the FBI saved me”
“I make 6 figures”
“I don’t need to cook or clean. I have a nanny for that”
You sound like the biggest douche bag. Lose the ego…
And now for another quote from the Paulson family… this one at Wells Fargo.
“The ongoing impact of $2 trillion in government stimulus, with other factors such as pent-up consumer demand and returning consumer confidence, will finally lead to a turnaround, and the third quarter of next year will be “better than expected” by many, said Dr. Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist of Wells Capital Management. “It’s like you’re at a cookout and you’re trying and trying to get your charcoal going and you keep squirting on lighter fluid and all of a sudden it goes ‘poof!'” Paulsen said.”
Omfg —
Lol — that sounds like a quote from Merlin.
_________
Here is another spin on that article regarding the underseas cables being cut. I think the first one was wrong.
http://tech.yahoo.com/news/ap/20081219/ap_on_hi_te/ml_egypt_internet_outage
Donny
Sir Alan Greenspan deserves a “Lifetime Achievement” award for his asshattery.
We need Bond, James Bond on the job.
FWIW…
NO … 2008 Asshat of the Year list would be complete without the addition of…
Elliot Spitzer !
——————————
Let’s see…the Governor of New York resigns in disgrace …after getting caught seeking the companionship of a $4000 a night prostitute !
You can’t make this shit up people !
.
asshat of the year – Sarah Palin – make that douche bag of the year too!
Let’s see…the Governor of New York resigns in disgrace …after getting caught seeking the companionship of a $4000 a night prostitute !
That’s nothing… he also got taken for a couple of mill by Madoff!
_______
What does she got that the other girls don’t?
That’s nothing… he also got taken for a couple of mill by Madoff
—————————-
WOW !
I hadn’t heard that !
Was there a Jewish person on Earth…that Madoff didn’t fleece ?
.
One of the very Final acts of a Vaporizing/Crumbling Empire, “Loot/Raid” the Treasury. Here weez arz!! Isn’t Fascism at its finest gr8t [sic]?
That first $350 Billion that you thought Paulson gave to the banks – it went to Bernie Madoff.
“Everyone already KNOWS all that. At least almost everyone in the markets do (Steve the Neighbor maybe not).
So the question is– why have we not already plunged to Devil Dogian Delight Land?”
Jake, I think it’s the difference between knowing something and doing something.
People know smoking is bad. Eating too much makes you fat.
What do they do about it? Nothing, until the Doc says, this will kill you – soon. Even then, most continue doing the same things.
There are so many well deserving asshats, we may have to resort to a non-asshat award this year.
Who deserves the Steel-tipped-Boot Kickass Award this year? Sorry Fly iBC associates cannot get the award.
My God … look at the current Crude Contract
Oil = $33.00
8)
1. Rehab’s for quitters
2. Lady G’s book comes with crayons
3.Her son’s autistic, not artistic
4. The six figures are in pesos
5. The “cougar” is what she drives
6.The stalker turned out to be her imaginary friend, Vincenzo, amd the “FBI” were from the State Hospital.
7. The “Nanny” is the nickname she uses for her 90 year old mother.
Merry Christmas!
Jake, I think it’s the difference between knowing something and doing something.
People know smoking is bad. Eating too much makes you fat.
What do they do about it? Nothing, until the Doc says, this will kill you – soon. Even then, most continue doing the same things.
Sorry, I’m not buying. This posits that everyone in the market is wrong, which doesn’t make sense.
________
My asshat of the year:
Kanye West for his performance on Saturday Night Live last week.
After all the bragging, bashing, and noise…the dude can’t sing.
Nashville mocks you, Kanye.
Great, another darling of the labor unions
Speak English bitch this is America not fucking Mexico
Fraud drives Polariod to bankruptcy:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/dec/19/chapter-11-corporate-bankruptcies-corporatefraud
We rally to Christmas, we’ll worry about the economy when everyone returns from vacation.
Donny Says:
“My God … look at the current Crude Contract
Oil = $33.00”
DIPSHITZ- that is the expiring month which is being manipulated DOWNWARD to crush those who bought those contracts above 50. It is a MEANINGLESS NUMBER.
The next month (which will be the front month Monday) is trading at 42 – which is the REAL oil price.
Donny and Generational:
Keep an eye on USO here, $32.75 is the downslope line, and we just had a blaze of unusual volume at 2:25 pm.
________
Asshat of the year:
toss-up Hugo Chavez vs the scrawny little Iranian fucker
Hey, since it’s slow I just remembered something that was funny…
Remember that time the prostitute chick came on this blog and told “the Fly” that she was available and that they could “do it anyway he liked?”
I love the holidays.
-DT
I’ve been complaining for months about the innards of ETFs. (while trading them) and asking questions that nobody will answer.
Its not a question of math, its a question of software. I’m a programmer, so I want to know what the inputs are, what the other half of the program is (that’s working the other markets in warrants, options, futures) and how its programmed as a market maker. what is the relationship between the ETF and the market makers ? that’s seriously not explicit. it would seem that they are intertwined. a mm usually is supposed to “balance the prices between supply and demand” and to make money off the bid/ask (but they are still cowboys, even if these days they are robot cowboys)
what drives that crazy bid/ask spastic shit ? that’s why I keep away; I would rather use QQQQ and use my own leverage than QLD. you get better fills, tighter spread and its not so fucking random.
they make money in lots of ways and not just bid/ask spread. they are running many games in many markets and then offering something slightly more sophisticated than spread betting in order to give people the illusion that they are trading in the stock market.
but you don’t own the stocks, the ETF doesn’t even own the underlying. maybe some (they pay dividends). but its a very time-dispersed ownership.
the information sense of the market is nearly gone: the purpose of an individual buy/sell isn’t some trader expressing an opinion on the fair price for the equity (how quaint).
most of it is program trading, and much of that is as a part of the backdoor for another piece of software that’s running an ETF, pairs/exotic strategy, or something cross market. the entire market is essentially one large machine that is ignorant of what and how the other programs are written. the humans then personify these effects and write headlines to explain them.
please post links or correct me, I want to know wtf is going on here.
Asshat of the year- Eddie Haskell
GOB-
Really? I didn’t know that. Thanks for the info you fuckin’ idiot!
Good times, DT.
… and then Fly said let’s crawl in this giant can of corn.
Cramer just reversed again, don’t buy steels after this run up … incredible, how many bought x higher????
jake, i think you may be on to something with that action in the USO.
Just got a contract from a builder for a 260k home for 209k,all closing cost paid,FHA 5%…wheres devildog to spew meltdown…I got more sh*t to buy!!
Bought UNG at $22.24.A pick from ZStock.
jake, i think you may be on to something with that action in the USO.
Fwiw, USO is through that downtrend line as we speak.
What ho, Horatio?
________
Remember the DCR etf (that ran down to nothing)? I wonder what it would at a today?
Asshat of the year- Profunds for coming up with BS etfs.
USO above $33!
_______
Probably a wise decision. The problem is the varience is so high it becomes much different in your bankroll management.
Lets say there were super duper high powered devices that either increase your bankroll by 8000% or you lose 95% of it, ever time you must sell and rebuy if you want to re enter as well. And by “opting in” to the right to this device you are required to at least trade these 10 times.
And they required a minimum of maybe $1000. Risk reward that’s awesome, because you would only have to succeed a very very low percentage of the time. If you could only risk a few dollars here and there, it’d be great. But if you lost 95% of your bankroll, several times in a row, no gain would be large enough to offset it.
If you had 100,000, it might go, lose 95% to 5,000, lose 5,000 to 250, then gain 8000% to 20,000, then you might lose a few times in a row again to 50 and you’re below the minimum. Even if there were no fees or minimum, then maybe you win a couple times in a row, to 320,000… then you lose 4 times in a row, and you’re at $2. Now you don’t even have the ability to come up with enough money to sell it, and the brokerage fee costs more than what’s left. Sure, if you could put $2 on it, 3 wins would put you at a million…
But these ETFs have a greater downside than upside, because they’re measured in percentage, plus they have the negative aspect of huge varience.
Hey, lets up the ante to triple while everyone is losing money… don’t stop there, how about 100 times!
At least with those you could own both long and short and expect to make money if they actually worked somewhat effeciently, and traded long enough to survive.
The problem is, it doesn’t. But note that some of the new pro share etfs track the monthly return rather than daily… makes much more sense.
DCR = Ponzi scheme
Fwiw, USO is through that downtrend line as we speak.
looks like it’s coming back a bit.
Jake –
I concur with your guess as to Fly’s AHOTY award…
“None of you will ever guess who he is.”
Gotz to be Bush and the reason we wouldn’t guess is becasue we know The Fly ‘dresses to the right’
(though of course, Barack the Builder would be much more deserving… “Only 17% of 8th Graders in Schools Overseen by Obama Education Secretary-Designee Can Read at Grade Level”)
http://www.cnsnews.com/public/content/article.aspx?RsrcID=40911
_________________
Did you see Mark Bavarro has a new book out?
“Rough & Tumble” or something… just picked it up but haven’t cracked it yet
that fucking guest on kudlow from trend macro/micro/whatever the fuck it is.
don luskin
holy shit, that guy deserves ‘asshat of the forever lifetime achievement’
Luskin = Ponzi scheme
look out below: XOM
Fly wins again.
Donny Says:
GOB-
Really? I didn’t know that. Thanks for the info you fuckin’ idiot!
Than why are you having a spazz over a meaningless number, you microdicked asshat??
Bought RIG $46.41 today.
I am not running for the office of Asshat of the Year. If nominated, I will not serve.
I expect my calander will be filled for the rest of my life in the near future.
ooohh “Microdick”
That’s harsh.
_______
Asshat of the year- Individual Stock investor
Isn’t it funny how some people just hang themselves out there asking for it?
Lady G, if you are this subtle in your trading, you must get picked off left and right…
Hat tip to “Upside Trader” —
“The REAL Madoffs!”
_________
Anyone check Campbell Soup’s ($CPB) late day trading? WTF?
_______
didn’t see it as it happened, jake, but i wouldn’t even know how to guess at an explanation there. weird.
just op ex manipulation, maybe?
Where’s Boomer?
You know Nash Vegas had to have its own Madoff too!
________
I name myself Asshat of the Year.
How was that flaming fucking homo SRS down 10% today. This shit has problems. Hell we could get an up 1000 day or a down 50 day on that fucking name. Must be run by homos.
In other news its time to load up on DXO here. Bearish oil all you want but you will lose in 18 months, write it down. Just like you (not Fly) lost being long oil at 147. I can tell you that there are many many more people on the roads now than when it cost 100 to fill up. I mean just the other day I heard so fucking idiot rapper sayin “When it cost a hunerd to fill up what Im posed to do.” — Birdman aka Baby aka Please say the Baby aka I kiss younger boys.
Now I see fucking Six Foah Chevy’s rollin on blades sucking down gallon after gallon like its Compton in the 70’s.
Bottom line, we will soon have a fucking shitfit thrown by Russia and Iran because of the price which will give a lift to their economy via higher prices. Also don’t you fucking think for a minute there won’t be a warhead launched at that fucking reactor in Iran, Israel will do it like a sideways drive by in college park. Take it or leave it DXO is the play.
KIM = LEH, next fortune cookie. Nice.
Yes – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXPT8sw_FjU
The Fly – thanks for XOM, when is the PPT unleashed to the internet masses?
Jakegint: yeah CPB showing volatility of overnight at present, vix or no vix 🙂
Cramer just called the bottom in OIL
cramer called an oil bottom?
fuck. that’s means i’ve got to sell my oil position on monday.
goddammit.
New wave of folks eager to buy oil. Hold your horses for better prices next year imho.
hit it
Hey, if oil prices would drop further perhaps this year would be buy — I’m hedging my note since holding off several days for holiday.