The clowns are scurrying about, offering all sorts of rumors, from capital injections at BAC to outright nationalization for C. Then we have the asshole, Geithner, telling people there will be more details of his “plan” revealed for us plebs, early next week.
Look, I can’t stop you from grabbing hold of that one arm bandit. All I know is, this market is not safe, on the long or short side. We are too oversold, yet on the precipice of economic collapse.
“The Fly” always has an opinion on where to place money. However, for once, I am going to sit this fucker out, grab some popcorn, and watch the rats run around on the sinking ship.
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I read Soros’ book, “The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means” a while back, and I must say, although I hope he isn’t, he may very well be right this time.
He postulates that Thatcher and Reagan began a super bubble, fueled by access to credit, which is now coming to an end…that makes profits from American companies since that time basically a mirage.
And if you look at a long term dow chart, it really does look like a giant bubble…
PPT time!!
Glad I covered some earlier
Sold 2/3 FAS for 0.68 . Will ride the rest or stop out at $4.5 . One heck of a ride. I’ve never had so much fun. Thanks PPT. Thanks Danny. Thanks TC for wishing me luck.
He we go this will be fun to watch!
Options unwinding coming
Like I said earlier market would retrace due to covering
The Fly is God.
The PPT blowing a load on bears faces just in time for Options Expiration.
rally..over..? Geithner shate his pants….little geek faggot.
Just wondering what you guys think about USO as a long term investment. Do you think it’ll make another run towards previous highs over the next 5-10-15 years? The average inflation adjusted price for oil has been around $20/barrel and we’re a little less than double that right now so the down side is a loss of 50% for who knows how long. And yes, that would be dead money, but if you’re playing it as an investment, would it eventually make a reasonable return?
Who wants to take a shot?
Tim Geithner should be lynched just for being so unprepaird and stupid. Obama should be deported because he’s a really a radical Muslim. And that fucking asshole, Christopher Dodd, should be fisted by a 100 gay men, just for contributing to the chaos.
WTF is going on here people? Are they really that stupid?
some details….thats it shit-tard Gaggner..means its a mess and not figured out yet…fucking jerkoff academics asshats..
Donny…sorry…but Dodd probably would not interpret that as punishment.
Santelli was invited for White House Tea time by the big O.
Obama does hear the gripes & adjusts .. unlike my way or the highway Bush.
That said … we’re still on the Titanic, heading for the berg.
Frank and Dodd. Sitting in a tree. K-I-S-S-I-N-G. First comes love and then comes marriage (in Mass.) and then comes Bruce in a baby carriage.
DUDE STFU IM PUSHING THROUGH 75% ON MY ACCOUNT VALE THIS YEAR ALONE FAS AND FAZ RESPONSBLE FO MOST OF IT YOU SO FUCKIN LOST ITS NOT EVEN FUNNY THE MARKET WAS TURNING TODAY REGARDLESS HIGHER FO A FEW DAYS THEN BACK TO NORMAL GET A GRIP ON THIS COMMON SENSE MARKET FUCK THE MARKET ITS ALL ABOUT ALL THE SECTORS DOING THERE OWN THING
hey fly- while on the sidelines, channel your creativity and give us some thoughts on how to take back the gvmt from these bastards.
The parade of stupidity on CNBC, continues, unabated.
TC – fuck off … that said, you live in SF?
This “recession” is not bothering Obama and his left wing liberal/socialist government – everything is going according to their plan – redistribution of wealth is underway.
Santelli has potential to go “Rush Limbaugh”…get his own radio show,spouting radical ideas…They gotta nip that in the bud
Dollar getting ready for elevator down again, heah.
Got gold?
Devil Dough?
________
Fly. Please tell Fly,Jr. to go home. He insists on practicing his drums in our garage.
Obama does hear the gripes & adjusts .. unlike my way or the highway Bush.
On the other hand, Bush had some classes in economics and wasn’t brought to manhood by semi-“reformed” communists and terror bombers.
So he had that going for him. That Obama is wishy washy is not giving me the warm & fuzzies.
__________
“Radical” idea? Obama is a radical taught by the communist, Saul Alinsky in Chicago. Google Saul Alinsky.
Yes. I live in Height Ashbury section of SF and run a head shop for burned out hippies. On weekends I volunteer at the Free Clinic.
Jake – thanks for pointing out what a well rounded education Obama had 😮
Obama is learning as he goes … on the job training 😛
look, they’ve sucked but the dude does hear the complaints, makes adjustments, and in internet time .. theres something to be said for that
http://vimeo.com/3261363?pg=embed&sec=&hd=1
Creative presentation of the credit crisis
TC , for you … passing it along
http://www.theyfly.com/San_Francisco_Earthquake.html
I’m with you, Fly. Just dumped puts on GE, BAC and CBI today. 900%, 920% and 1267% returns, respectively, low six-figure total take. They’ll probably keep dropping, but I’ll take the cash right now.
Moob:
Good job on the JC Flowers rumor, very creative, here I thought you were going to go with the old standby of reversing mark to market
I agree now is the time to sit on the sidelines and let the option guys kill each other and retail investors….
Glad I took off my shorts before the PPT spike…
Will enjoy the craziness of the next half hour… watch for some ridiculous moves going both ways spiking 10 ES points at a time.
Wash out pending.
Call me dumb (DevilBear did) but what direction does a wash out go?
downward young man
Bush, though stupid, is indeed the first and only president with an MBA. In fact, he got it from the “exclusive” Harvard Business School.
But aren’t these the same Ivy League motherfuckers who created this mess with their leverage, pooling, transferring and hedging? Yes, they are. A perfect business model to destroy America … straight from our “best and brightest”.
Fucking Idiots!
Donny’s right about MBAs. B-school is a two-year vacation/recruiting opportunity. You do zero work, have interviews fall into your lap and come out with a raise well above your previous salary. Educational value beyond what you could have learned on your own with a little evening reading: zero. But after a two-year analyst program at an i-bank, the break is totally worth the tuition.
At least, that’s how it used to be.
I’m worried enough about the w/e news cycle that I pulled the plug on my buys from Tuesday, took a small loss, and will miss the weekend action.
Holding only the gold, silver, and miners through the weekend.
Juice,
everything this administration has done has been symbolic. Who exactly has he been listening to and how can we silence that person?
for your amusement 😀
—————-
Bank of America Is Going Back to $20
By Jason Schwarz
RealMoney Contributor
2/20/2009 3:22 PM EST
We are experiencing an overreaction of historic proportions when it comes to the financial sector and specifically Bank of America (BAC) .
In case you haven’t noticed, these extreme overreactions are becoming the norm, and a thorough understanding of the reasons for the overreaction is paramount to generating great investment returns in this day and age. The market has gotten Bank of America terribly wrong in the short run as the “cloud of uncertainty” has met with the sea of negativity. Governmental uncertainty and market negativity are the contributing factors for Bank of America plunging below $4 a share.
After riding Apple (AAPL) calls to triple-digit gains in 2007, and then riding oil puts to triple-digit gains in 2008, I am making Bank of America my No. 1 holding for 2009. By next year, this stock will be back to $20 a share. Consider the following:
* The market is running wild on some hyped-up article written in the Financial Times that claims Obama is considering nationalizing the banks. If you actually read the article, you’ll notice the anti-American sentiment at the very beginning when it says that “nationalization has long been regarded in the U.S. as a folly of Europeans…” Obama’s true feelings on nationalization came out in his ABC interview after Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s banking speech, when he laughed out loud and said, “Sweden had like five banks. We’ve got thousands of banks … managing and overseeing anything of that scale … wouldn’t make sense. And we also have different traditions in this country.”
* Obama understands that the markets will determine his success. He has been very up front in his stance that the success of this financial plan will depend on how the markets respond over the next few months. The idea of killing off current shareholders and taking Bank of America off the market during a nationalization phase is unthinkable.
* Tim Geithner does not believe in nationalizing the banks either. Mr. Geithner last week said, “Governments are terrible managers of bad assets.” He went on to outline a plan that would seek help from the private sector, maintain a market for these toxic assets and increase transparency. Nationalization accomplishes none of these three goals.
* Any talk of banks would be incomplete without the opinion of the woman who has been right all along, Meredith Whitney. Obviously she is not high on the banks, but in her interview on CNBC yesterday she was very careful not to include Bank of America in her criticisms. She told investors to sell Citigroup (C) but would not mention Bank of America. She is also against nationalization and advocates the use of non-punitive capital to strengthen the system. Maria Bartiromo wanted to get her to say “Sell all the big banks,” but she never said it. In fact, she mentioned that JPMorgan Chase (JPM) would be a survivor, as it is well capitalized. I believe Bank of America is in a similar position.
* Earlier this week, Bank of America actually paid back $402 million in a TARP dividend payment to the U.S. government. If this doesn’t show its commitment to repaying taxpayers, I don’t know what would. CEO Ken Lewis has mentioned that his company will not need to borrow any more funds, that it is well capitalized and that his company had a good January. The results were led by Countrywide, which he described as being “on fire” because of the boom in refinancings.
* The Fed will be purchasing $500 billion of mortgage-backed securities over the next six months. Bank of America took one for the team by going through with its purchase of Merrill Lynch. Even when BofA had second thoughts about the deal, it did it at the request of the Fed and the Treasury, which worried about a systematic risk if the deal were to fail. The Fed will be as friendly as possible to Bank of America in this repurchase program.
* Bank of America will be the undisputed leader of the new economy. I’m excited about being invested in the largest retail brokerage (Merrill Lynch) the largest mortgage lender (Countrywide) and a bank that has been profitable for 17 years in a row, including 2008 (Bank of America).
* There has also been huge insider buying.
See you at $20.
I am not feeling satisfied today:)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6OU_8zkvw4
Closed out my SPY puts here. Still have XOM APR Puts open. Too much craziness with the general market, but still think oil and oil companies will get hit….
Geithner cram down for mkt- Goodfella’s style perhaps…
Dr I – if you have been following events …. Obamas team is clueless … so they come up with a plan (that sucks), then they get all sorts of public feedback, and readjust their plans to one slightly better but still sucks… eventually they hope to fine tune it/hone it … this seems to be their M.O./style
I don’t think their adjustments are symbolic/empty, if thats what you mean
Geitner has a booger hanging out of his nose, and, sadly, Paulsen was better at bullshitting the markets.
Who wants to buy some GE here at $8.99?
C $1.92 P.O.S. (looks like the Fly’s fortune cookie was right!)
MOS $42.26 (strong in a down market AGAIN!)
Fly, I’m thinking of buying physical gold, and the only thing bugging me about this is you. You don’t like the outlook, and I would love to hear a little more on why, and what timeframes you are talking about before I do something foolish like bet against you.
Mars.
Henry…..CAB, Cabela’s up 34% today……due to sell of guns……should have kept the SWHC
Rick Santelli’s rant is taking on a life of its own:
http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/02/rick_santelli_campaign_meme.php
So why did Judd Gregg withdraw his name for commerce secretary if he is listening? Was the nomination not an empty symbol to create a positive image of the administration? I think it was.
He didn’t even structure the stimulus bill. If he is listening and the voice of the people, maybe he should use his position. Instead he has become the voice of the government trying to sell snake oil.
Juice – I don’t think that writers $20 target on BAC is far fetched. If the housing market stabilizes and I believe it can within the next 6 months, BAC should be able to survive. Shorting BAC here does not make any sense. I have covered most of my bank shorts. I wouldn’t mind buying a few $15 Jan 2010 call options on BAC just for fun. You never know. The market is pricing in out right nationalization of BAC and C or at least they were until the last few hours.
Right now everything looks so bad. People think the world is ending. I hear talk about buying guns and ammo amongst regular folk. Its like the world is ending in a few weeks. Fear and panic are so widespread. You just have to close your eyes and buy. Put it this way, if shit blows up, we all lose. You can be short the market but you will never collect your profits cause the money was fake anyways and your broker won’t have money to send to you. On the other hand, if the world is not ending, going long will be a very profitable trade.
CAP, if you think housing can stabilize in 6 months, you might as well start smoking yourself now. You are out of your mind.
You do zero work, have interviews fall into your lap and come out with a raise well above your previous salary.
Not at a decent school. I did more work in the first trimester of business school (five classes PLUS a real-time consulting project) than I did in four years of college, and that was no Shitbird U. either.
Interviews were kind of sparse, as I was getting out during a down cycle, but everyone got employed, and yes, the salaries are always higher (again, if its a good school).
But no work? Fuck that. And Harvard is one of the toughest.
__________
Holding only the gold, silver, and miners through the weekend.
Besides those 12.50 TSO calls, I also got some more PAAS today, because I was feeling all “Eastery.”
Came very close to getting some more TBT, but I figured I’d wait until Monday.
TBT will be an add, soon, however.
___________
Jake,
No offense meant, but if you did an i-banking job prior to b-school, most of the heavy course load in the first semester is review. All that isn’t review is the touchy-feely ethics and organizational behavior crappola. The other 3 semesters are intended to have gradually declining work load.
And quantity of work aside, it’s all standard valuation and business case malarky. There was more of a challenge in cooperating with a small group of alpha-jerks to get a project done than there was academic rigor. The value in the degree is all in the pedigree it gives you and the contacts you make. I’m not saying it’s worthless, but I am saying that it doesn’t really sharpen your bidness skills.
And I went to a top 3 undergrad and top 10 b-school.