We all know the danger spots: C, BAC, WFC, USB, STI, FITB, ZION, GE, HIG and KEY, just to name a few. But, who will be left holding the bag? Lots of managers are long these names, U.S. financial bellwethers, and will now begin to suffer the ramifications of poor risk management practices. The whole system is intertwined. A failure of the banks above will cause a domino effect that will take down money management firms, other banks large and small, insurers, annuity players and legendary investors.
Below is rough sketch look at the firms with the most exposure to the companies listed above:
C: STT, BCS, Capital World Investors, Fidelity, Vanguard
WFC: Berkshire Hathaway, STT, BCS, Fidelity, Canguard
BAC: STT, BCS, Vanguard, Temasek Holdings, Fidelity
USB: STT, BCS, Berkshire Hathaway, Capital World Investors, Marisco
STI: Capital World Investors, STT, BCS, Vanguard, UBS
FITB: AXA, Lord Abbett, UBS, STT, BCS
ZION: BCS, STT, WFC, Argyll Research, Vanguard
KEY: Fidelity, STT, BCS, Hotchkis, TROW
HIG: STT, AXA, Capital Growth, NWQ, BCS
GE: BCS, STT, Vanguard, Capital World Investors, BK
It appears the ungodly folks at STT have a lot of worrying to do over the weekend.
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Vix is going vertical…hold on
I’m calling bullshit. PPT to the rescue. We are at 2002-2003 lows on the Dow. What better place to start a rally ?
One could now play vix via VXX, fyi.
Cap:
Get ready to….
Oh, you know the drill by now.
The more this hack talks, the lower the market.
This guy on CNBC needs to answer the fucking question already… this housing crisis defense guy has spent 10 minutes dancing around the question… why do homeowners deserve the 1000$ payment? Why should they be able to refinance?
no rescue today. Longs get the Indiana Bullwhip:
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=indiana%20bullwhip
Guess I’ll spend the weekend building a covered wagon and hit the auction to buy 2 good horses……… Is the fur trade still active? Is the West still “wild”?
Might better re-watch some Grizzly Adams episodes and get a refresh on wilderness survival techniques.
Either the government is planning to nationalize BAC and C this weekend or we are going up.
Didn’t you guys know that you can’t use the word ‘president’ anymore?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UlUEAR9eiI
DMG
Hey CAP,
Make that 1997 lows now.
And the crazy part is we’re only in year 1 of this Depression. Can you imagine when we’re 10 years into this. They will be saying, “DOW breaking 1980 lows…”
This whole age of prosperity was a huge lie. America has been one big credit bubble. The house of cards is now crumbling.
If any of you clowns think I’m joking about guns and riots, think again. Tax revolts and revolution are a real threat. Right now, most folks are down 50% in their 401k’s. Wait til their down 75% and unemployed. They will have nothing to lose. Crime will surge, there will be marches on Washington. Shit is going to get really bad.
CAP:
How could the gov’t ignore the carnage?
Bottom line CAP:
If you are going to get long, do it small.
Phil…get a hold of yourself. Things will get worse than they are…but this is the US…not some third world country like Brazil. You might want to dust off your blow gun…fool.
The Fly Says:
CAP:
How could the gov’t ignore the carnage?
What carnage are you talking about ? You mean the market today ? Thats why I expect the PPT to show up and perhaps an announcement of sorts. BAC and C are trading like nationalization is imminent.
Has anyone heard of bank runs occuring on BAC or C today ?
Remember the good old days when The Fed could announce a 50 bps cut here and we’d rally 8%!!
Totally agree with you about Obama Lady G.
Mars.
Tightening my stops on short JPM BAC WFC and the rest. This is madness. You can smell the fear looking at the tape. Blood on the streets.
Market ends up 2hundo today!
If there ever was a reason for PPT to step in, TODAY is IT
Embraced my asshole dip buyer side and closed a bunch of shorts.
So I just got back from bank of america, and this is what I saw
http://s5.tinypic.com/1263at0.jpg
Anon,
Go blow yourself.
If you think that tax revolts, riots, and revolution are not going to happen in America, you’re living in Lalaland. This has nothing to do with being a 3rd world country or not. It’s about having nothing to lose. When 401k’s and IRA’s get nearly all wiped out and unemployment clears 20%, there will be a substantial chunk of the population with a sense of “nothing to lose”.
Think about that.
Even if the Govt. nationalizes BAC and C , they will probably still trade around $1-2 a share. So there is really not much downside.
Wow, BAC just hit the fuck you switch.
CAP- regarding bank runs..no need for 1930 style lines..just withdraw electronically from your laptop..and yes i believe it is occuring…imo. Still long 1000 new AR-15’s..value will skyrocket.
Phil from Brazil:
Seems Obama was correct in saying he was going to “bring change”.
One thing is certain. 2009 will be remembered as a year of Significant Global Change.
mars.
Phil,
wow…why do’t you say 50% unemployment…it sounds soooo much scarier. Nice grandstanding…douchebag.
where is Devildog during the carnage of this day?
Anon,
Who’s grandstanding? I’m reporting reality. Sorry that makes you upset, fuckface. Now go buy some BAC and be real patriotic, ANusON, or ANUSon, you moronic gay fucker.
CAP
Cash n Guns is right. Bank runs are done electronically, asshole.
I am not getting in the way of your bounce call here. But come on, the banks are done, even if they bounce from here.
DEVILDOG is driving his Viper up and down his block in celebration.
buying PFF (preferred etf)…PGF could work too…
Short gold? HAH! Devildog be damned! Which sort of makes sense, when you think about it (but not too hard).
If you look through all the fuzzy statistical crap the states is essentially at 20% unemployment. The 7.9% is only people who lost their jobs recently, and are currently actively seeking work. That doesn’t include the elderly (of which there are a fuck-load), or people under 16.
If you include everyone there are less than 200 million working Americans. Next time you’re out look around. Only 2/3 of the people you see are working. Unless you’re in California. Then it’s more like half.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment
Mars.
The FLY wins even when he loses
DEVILDOG loses even when he wins(for shorting gold and selling SRS and his shorts because he expected the market to bounce)
Nice call Phil…BAC moved up about 7% since you said to buy it. Thanks fuckface.
go2mars – I know about a dozen friends and acquaintances who are unemployed. Most are actually collecting unemployment. The funny thing is most have at least 3-4 yrs of living expenses saved up in the bank and are in no hurry to find a job. They were all in financial and real estate professions and made a hefty sum during the 2003-2007 boom years. So unemployment statistics can be misleading in other ways to. There are many collecting unemployment and counted in the unemployed who are in no hurry to find another job because they have no financial constraints.
go2mars,
I voted for Obama, but the poor guy is lost. Quite frankly, I dont think there’s a quick government solution to the problem. Jeff Macke sums it up best. Only time, lots of time, will correct the situation.
The government cannot shamwow away a Depression by bailing out banks and homeowners. If Obama thinks he can solve this in 3 years, he’s way out of his league. He’s putting himself in a corner here. It’s also safe to say that this will be a one-term presidency.
Government cheese makers at work
Hey ANUSon,
Now hold that BAC for 1 year. Let’s see how that works out.
One more thing: why don’t you get a man’s name?
Phil,
“When 401k’s and IRA’s get nearly all wiped out and unemployment clears 20%, there will be a substantial chunk of the population with a sense of “nothing to lose”
A bong hit would do you good!
US can hang onto REALISTIC expectation that things will gt better when this is over. This expectation is not realistic and has been lost in brazil a LONG long time ago.
Our new Pres. still thinks he is campaigning..odd huh….Th new press secretary is a bumbling pantload..awe inspiring my confidence…fucking twits.
GE @ 9.00?
They still make light bulbs, right?
Holy ‘Bank of America’ Shit. 30%+ move from the lows yet still down 25% for the day
Oh, like “Phil” is any better than “Anon”…huh! You are either stupid or …never mind…you are just stupid.
Fear mongering brazillian chimp fucker….thats all you are.
Anon
Bong hit?
Oh yeah, right, cuz my projections are so outlandish. Guys at my firm were also doubtfull when I told them JP Morgan, Merril and Citi would go under in the next 3 years (I made this call in 2006) and that the DOW would go to 3,000. Now I’ve got dudes and their friends calling me wanting me to manage their money.
As for Brazil, don’t worry about me. My job at the Central Bank will be immune from firing by the Constitution. So sorry.
Uh, yeah. Phil’s a normal name.
ANUSon sounds pretty gay.
Would someone smash Ken(i bought more stock at $5)Lewis in the head with a tranche of his CDO’s..! Michele Cabruso has the face of transvestite…she should be selling guacamole in Ecuador.
Question for the attorneys in the forum. I have an arbitration pending against Banc of America Investment Services. What happens if they become Federal Bank Of America? My case is now against the Gov?
btw, Lehman was also part of my list.
Citi is a zombi bank and JP Morgan, with its mountains of derivatives ($70 trillion), is next to be clownfucked.
Joe,
You shouldn’t be worried about BAC getting nationalized. Didnt you see the Ken Lewis statement? Are you doubting the integrity of bank as American as Bank of America? I thought you were patriotic.
Things will get better — you said so yourself.
hahahahahaha
“Fear mongering brazillian chimp fucker”
Anon = j ???
Phil…this is funny…I made the same calls you did in 2006. In fact, I made soooo much money…that’s why i’m still working too…just like you. Amazing isn’t it?
Now go fuck off somehwere…asshole.
Trading in and out of SRS is like playing a slot machine.
Cramer’s actually calm and composed. He must be scared even more shitless than Dick fucking Bove. Everybody panic!
Anonymous,
This ANUSon clown is a pathetic racist. No use giving him much consideration.
Hell if the DOW’s gonna be at 1997 levels, might as well have 1997 music…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sd0C_Us31kk&feature=related
syPHILis,
I can see logic doesn’t come naturally to you. USA can and will do well without BAC!
Hey ANUSon, you racist clown, I’ve got plenty of cash. And, unlike you, I like to work. It’s that simple (regardless of how much my portfolio is growing.
Got some more DXO @1.81. Should see a short cover rally by 15:30 no one wants to hold shorts over the weekend. Berkshire Hathaway is highly levered. Next Ponzi Scheme? Just joking but I would not go near this fucker.
Joe-
The United States would step into the shoes of BAC and there would be a substitution of parties and the US would be subject to the claims and the defenses of BAC.
Joe,
I never said it wouldnt. I’m poking fun at idiots like you and ANUSon, who get all insulted, when someone says the obvious: that the country is fucked and will have social and economic upheaval.
What the hell does Ken Lewis know? This is the same dumbass that rushed into the Merrill and countrywide deal.
speaking of 90’s music to go with the market,…..I’m actually going to see Tesla tonight….. there’s your 90’s music…….
PPT Time.
BEHOLD
SRS GETTING BITCH SLAPPED
Here comes a little short covering to take some profits before the fuckery that comes in the last hour with options expiration and the unwinding of some positions
Phil…you are as full of shit as a Christmas goose.
BTW…BAC is now up 25% from where you said to buy it. For a chimp fucker…you sure now how to pick’em…thanks.
No nationalization as per Press Sec.
Buy Time!!!!!
Just kidding.
What a joke.
Time to bring out the Golden Bull?
You just know Charlie (the meatball) G. will have a 3:20-30 Friday afternoon report to screw everybody.
ANUSon,
Again, hold your BAC for a year. Promise me that. And we’ll chat again early next year to see how your American investment is going.
And by the way, just so you know… I’ll be having an awesome life in Brazil — visiting pristine beaches, tapping caramel chicks asses.. having a great time — while you’re here getting your house forclosed. hahahahah
Phil is correct all. The end to this free fall is mass chaos. When it is all said and done, this country will be a third world country. It will only take a few years until we have 25%+ unemployment, and there will never be a return in the US to the prosperity of the past.
People who believe the US is somehow different will be stuck here watching this country fall into the abyss.
How old are you anyway, ANUSon and where do you live in America?
PPT EARLY TODAY
ODD, NO?
XOM rally
PPT coming in
BREAKING NEWS
AP (Feb. 20, 2009 2:26 PM EST) – Noone gives two farts about Brazil.
There we go!! PPT to the rescue.
While I did short some STT I am green for the day now.
Phil,
Wrong again.
You still think you are living in brazil!
“that the country is fucked and will have social and economic upheaval”
I get upset when IDIOTS such as yourself make grand stupid statements (with no resemblance to reality) fed by the euphoria of having made $67 in the market.
There is no doubt that the US is going to experience some pain for the next year or two but I GUARANTEE you, we will be much better off then we were when this cleansing is over.
I know, coming from “city of god” is hard to think this way but let the fear subside for a second and look at the US history. Every challenge has made the US stronger while the opposite is the case with the 7th world country like yours.
Ibankcoin has a serious handicap in that it doesn’t have an IGNORE ASSHOLES hyperlink
Holy shit, Phyllis…look what you did to BAC. For your friends sake, I hope you declined managing their money. If you are managing it…No beaches and caramel chicks for them. Back to hunting monkeys in the jungle.
Wow … Good advice to avoid shorting here Fly … PPT has evoked a mammoth reversal
Suntrust going “Mickey Rourke” on short sellers
Historically this market is in rarely charted territory.
This means that anyone making any case can find evidence one way or the other.
This is why Quant Programs, trading styles, and the PPT are very risky in this market. There is no history, only immediate past and one word from Obama can change the scenario with no indication.
Basically, when there is little data for theories built on different data, the theories break down.
.
I am thankful I covered some of my shorts earlier.
If there is another hammer dropped late in the day I will cover a little more. I am nervous about being too short over the weekend.
Still holding
KIM short
GS short
SPY short
NOV short
REW
TWM
SRS
SKF
TraderCaddy,
Thank you for your help
Suntrust (STI) is doing well now that may wife had her paycheck direct deposited in the account. Improved the balance sheet.
Bloomberg had Chris Dodd on tv earlier and he said the N thing couldn’t be ruled out but they would do everything they could to avoid it.
don’t think anything about the reversal but people covering their shorts now to be all cash for the weekend…..this could be the very bottom of a start of a bear rally for next week but I will stay all cash until market open on monday and see what government fuckery will happen sunday night….their favorite day for pulling some shit….
5k Met at 21.19… stop below 20
Alas, this is probably nothing more than a short covering rally. With so many shoes left to drop, I’d be uncomfortable getting long anything with size here. Better to wait for the safer play and reload on some shorts.
AP (Feb. 20, 2009 2:26 PM EST) – Noone gives two farts about Brazil.
———————
so true. Phil, stop with Brazil nonsense. US is one of the very few countries with rule of law and sound political system. I do not put Brazil in that same category.
10k hig @ 6.79, stop below 6
Does anyone NOT think this is short covering?
Canguard ?
dumping PFF…
“Does anyone NOT think this is short covering?”
That would explain the PPT effect being a bit early,no?
The amount of fuckery going on in the market as we speak is staggering.
moving stop up .50 on hig…
half off on Hig…
proceeds International Medical Corps.. off for a walk.
Cramer reports J C Flowers responsible for all the buying in BAC preferreds ….
this is the start of a new bull. the bear mkt is over. obama has obviously saved us. i am 200% long fas
EB…no doubt…J C Flowers got their BAC buy signal from phyllis_from_brazil.
I just made $6k from this rally – thnx whoever.
LoL Anon … After all, he is now an insider at Brazil’s CB
Phil, on one of my Brazilian trips, I collected some poison tipped arrows. Should I have those fuckers detoxed?
I’m 351% long now, that was clearly the bottom, This is the buying opportunity of a lifetime!
Listen to TheArtist at 2:35pm
There maybe piles of Potash the size of Belguim kicking around but you’d be mad to ignore the way POT and MOS take off when the fear subsides.
Fucking Geithner can’t even get the PPT to do their job efficiently
short covering my ass,
that was shady as hell.
banking collapse to positive in 30 mins,
come on.