Original Version
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bSTKx6Vp5g&feature=channel_page 450 300]iBankCoin Remix Version
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElFHR4qbaa0&feature=channel_page 450 300] Comments »
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,429 Blog Posts
Get in the Vice
Although you clowns want nothing more than to see “The Fly” lose his coin, amidst an egregious short squeeze. However, I have news for you, assholes, it’s not happening.
Sure, I am losing some dough on SRS, DUG, EEV and ERY; howsoever, it’s also worth noting my gains, good Sir, in CHL, FXI, TS, amongst others— is it not?
Look you, I don’t have to prove or justify shit from buckshots to any of you. Just feel solice in knowing, a 45% short, 20% long and 35% cash position (my model coming into today’s trade), no matter how onerous it may be, is not an asset allocation model that can lead to ruin. Do the math yourselves.
Going forward, my focus is to sell short oil stocks, via DUG and ERY. Also, I will hold onto SRS, in the event of a “fuck you, you’re dead” trading day, following BXP‘s earnings.
Finally, I am very comfortable being long the rabid pandas from China, via CHL and FXI. In addition, dumb ass infrastructure plays may see more upside. There, I like TS, MT and BUCY.
In short, it is nearly impossible to navigate this tape. If you got caught short or “malpositioned,” do not feel bad. Try to focus on what’s in front of you, instead of past mistakes.
Comments »Asshole Tape
CNBC is reporting the Fed will announce a record reduction in their balance sheet today, anywhere between 200-400 billion dollars. In my opinion, this firms up the deflation story and should punch oil, if I may be so bold, in the scrotum.
However, seeing how many banks pole vaulted above resistance levels, I have very little interest in adding to any shorts. As a matter of fact, I have greatly reduced my shorts, specifically in EEV and REW.
As of right now, my largest bear bets are in DUG, ERY and, unfortunately, SRS.
Despite hating the SRS action, I will ride it out.
On the long side, I added to my FXI position and initiated a position in MT. The text book says these gains should hold.
But who knows?
Go ahead, act like you knew this would happen and say “Gee Fly, I am hoping for you to get your mojo back.”
You fucking idiots. Being successful in the market is not about nailing every trade, every day. For me, it is a game of attrition, where I steadily plot my next move, much to the chagrin of others. There will be lost battles and many hits along the way.
However, when it’s all said and done, “The Fly” aka HORATIO CLAWHAMMER wins the war, every fucking time. You can bank on that.
UPDATE: I bought 5,000 BUCY @ $17.13
Comments »Fly Buy: FXI, MT
I bought 5,000 FXI @ $25.80.
UPDATE: I bought 5,000 MT @ $26.28.
UPDATE II: I sold out of 75% of my EEV position, just under $53.50. I sold out of REW, just under $71.15.
UPDATE III: I bought 10,000 FXI @ $25.85
Disclaimer: If you buy FXI or MT because of this post, you will not benefit from Obama’s 300+ million dollar outlay to fight std’s. And, you may lose money.
Comments »Game Plan For Today
Luckily, I find myself with a large cash position (35%) and newly added longs (CHL, FXI and TS). However, much to my chagrin, I am going into a fucking short squeeze, like a piece of cheese through a grater, with 45% of my capital short the market.
I expect limited losses in my oil shorts, due to a timely XOM downgrade (UBS) this morning. But, my thoughts on oil may change dramatically following the announcement of inventory data, scheduled to be released later on this morning.
My other positions in SRS, EEV and REW will be clown raped.
My choices are simple: sell them and switch to longs and risk timing everything wrong. Or, hang tough on the shorts and utilize existing cash to add more longs.
Depending on the tone of the market, I may just take my lumps on SRS, EEV and REW and move on. Or, the more likely scenario, I will take the cash I have left and position it to make some coin going into today’s close and for the next few days.
One thing is clear: if the market holds today’s gains, we will likely rally for several days, on the back of yet another insane stimulus plan.
It is quite common to see bear market rallies occur in late January. Often times they can last until March. It will be tempting to sell off longs quickly and buy into an FAZ or SKF on the “cheap.” However, remember, C, BAC, WFC, USB and JPM can literally double from yesterday’s closing prices and still not be viewed as “overvalued” by the asset management crowd.
The possible downside for FAZ is in the high 20’s and high 90’s for SKF.
Bottom line: today is not a day to be stubborn. I will try my best to limit the damage and not wallow in the “woulda, coulda, shouldas.” I got caught short, like a midget in the deep end of a pool. Now I must rectify or try to avoid future damage and work to rebuild.
Comments »The Mother of All Bailouts is Upon Us
Obama administration will create a “bad bank” aka “money hole,” in an effort to cleanse the banks of all of their mistakes. In addition, they will acquire such said toxic assets at a fucking premium.
This is a fucking crime. However, what’s another trill between idiots? Oh, and instead of taking preferred stock, the Gov’t chose the Bill Miller route. They will eat lowly common stock.
UPDATE: Britain was 3 hours to financial ruin.
h/t GW
Crystal Castles – Vanished
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56E8yYgLNHE 450 300]
Comments »Enter the Wheel to Nowhere
I’m out of here; this shit is for the birds. Apparently, the market is stuck on stupid, frozen, unable to ball up and make a move. However, that shouldn’t stop the stock Gods from punching my teeth in with a little “reverse SRS love action.”
The late day SRS fuckery is so classic, they should rename the etf ‘Frank Sinatra,’ ticker FRANK.
Here is a recap of today’s events:
X told us they blow and will begin the long process of bleeding out losses, for the foreseeable future. In addition, they have a $2 billion pension shortfall.
On that news, the stock ripped higher.
The Obama stimulus package has, in fact, no stimulus, touting less than 5% in real infrastructure spending. Instead, we will waste some fake money on condoms and abortion clinics.
Good times.
And, the big news being swept under the rug is: Congress wants to restrict steel contracts to U.S. firms only—with regards to the stimulus spending. Do these fuckers ever pick up history books; and more importantly, are they familiar with Smoot Hawley?
It’s almost as if they (Congress) try to be extra stupid on purpose.
This is not the time to take a protectionist stance with our trading partners. You can’t build an economy, based upon global growth and all if its trimmings, then all of a sudden, when the shit hits the fan, rescind or radically change how we conduct business with other nations.
Asshats.
In short, I like t-bills here, via TLT. And, I like short oil and short commercial Re. However, I cannot short the banks down here, no matter how much I hate them. Look, BAC, USB, WFC and C could double from here and no one would complain about valuations. It’s all a black box. No one knows what the banks are worth. Therefore, absent any really bad news, men in green leotards may choose to jack those fuckers up, in order to be all stupid and shit.
At the close of trading, my top longs were CHL, FXI and TS. And, my top shorts are DUG, SRS, EEV and ERY.
Comments »Get in Line
I just got back from lunch and I must admit; it was quite decadent. Amongst the finger food snacks of Gruyere cheese, fresh basil and herb infused turkey, I was also privy to some high end balsamic vinegar—not the bullshit that you buy from Stop and Shop. Losers.
Truth be told, lunch was rather light, since I was rushed so that I may endeavor to get back to the desk, in order to do the Lord’s work, of course.
Speaking of which, I think it’s fairly obvious, as well as shockingly accurate, that Senor Tropicana is well on his way to greatness. Little ol’ XOM may not be down yet; but, believe you me, it shall drown in a muddy pool of pig vomit, before this week ends.
Earlier on today, I bought some Chinese shit, namely FXI and CHL, based upon an urge to get long real communism, as opposed to the ambiguous U.S. version. In addition, I needed some upside hedges.
The way I see it: the Chinese are stark raving mad. There is a possibility, although not likely, that I can make obscene amounts of coin long DUG, ERY, REW, SRS, while also making money long Chinese fuckery, based upon post Chinese New Years brainwashing.
Nevertheless, if you are trading against me, good luck, you’re certainly going to need it. I’ve been at this shit for too long, to lose out to some random loser who searches the internet for stock picks.
Top picks: Short XOM
Comments »Fly Buys: CHL, FXI, TS
I bought 7,500 CHL @ $45.77 and 5,000 FXI @ $25.05.
UPDATE: I bought 15,000 TS @ $20.85
Disclaimer: If you buy the stocks above because of this post, a rabid panda will bite you. And, you may lose money.
Comments »
