iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,692 Blog Posts

If I Was a Bear…

I would be laughing at all of you assclowns, while smoking my crack pipe (bears smoke crack pipes).

My game plan would be precise and execution would be flawless, as opposed to the retarded shit I’m doing now.

Anyway, a bears life expectancy is very short, as bull markets tend to interrupt their devious plans with swift kicks to the neck and groin areas. So, I would have to make my money in a hurry.

If I were putting together a short portfolio, this is what I would do:

Long: FXY (Yen)- My cash reserves would be held in non-dollars, believing the dollar would continue to depreciate.

Long: GLD, SLV– More cash equivalent diversification.

Short: SHLD, ANF, JCG, NKE, UA, DECK, VLCM and JCP. If the U.S. is heading toward recession, all of the above retailers would get hit, badly. However, I would avoid selling luxury retailers, due to their ability to endure slow downs.

Short: C, BSC, LAZ, BBX, ABK, RDN,COWN and RBS– With the eye of the storm in credit related names, selling the above stocks would be mandatory.

Short: FDX, CSX, UPS and CHRW– Transports blow chunks when there is nothing to transport. Plus, high energy prices kill them.

Short: NOC– Even though it is widely believed that military stocks will thrive under a democratic or republican administration, it is not a given. Should the dems decide to trim spending, bet on Navy contracts to get the ax. NOC derives most of their revenue via Naval contracts.

Short PCU, X, HAYN– With worldwide economies slowing, demand for basic resources will drop significantly.

Short: GLBC, NT, CIEN, ADCT and AKAM– Again, recession will force big tech companies to trim. The above companies will get trimmed, continuously.

Long inverse ETF- DUG– I do not believe oil and other commodities will keep going up, with the exception of gold/silver, when armageddon hits. Sell black gold short.

Long inverse ETF: FXP– China has run up the most; therefore it will fall the hardest.

Long MCK, MHS, TEVA: Cost containment for the healthcare industry is a winner, especially with a democratic white house.

Long TLT– With the Fed cutting rates, treasuries should continue to be a safe haven.

Long utlities- Falling interest rates will force old fuckers to find yield and safety, pushing them into the utility sector. My favorites are VE, EN, SO, FE and GXP.

The philosophy of my fucktarded bear position would be to undermine the U.S. dollar, while focusing in on a weakening consumer, cut backs in Gov’t spending, deterioration of earnings in the financial sector and a bet that a cold in the U.S. still gives cancer to our trading partners.

I would avoid selling anything that caters to the wealthy. And, I would not sell short the homies, for fear of a sharp squeeze.

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That Was Grate [sic]

At the close of trading, I fuckng [sic] threw my bowl of soup at the televsison [sic].

I love how some of my bullshit stocks went up, 1 or 2%, into the close—after getting lit aflame all day.

In other words, they (conspiracy market guys) are trying to keep me in these shitbag stocks, in order to fleese [sic] me a little bit more.

Plain and simple, this is distrbution [sic]. Big institutons [sic] are blowing out of positions, at any price, in order to raise cash.

While there are many reasons for the sell off, who cares?

It is what it is: shit on a spindal [sic].

In closing, “The Fly” hates dropping shoes and people who talk about them. I hate stocks too and will go home, take my fucking turkie [sic] out of the fridge, and beat it senseles [sic] (I realize frozen turkies [sic] are dead).

NOTE: Anyone still beleive [sic] we are in a bull market?

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Strength in a Shitstorm

On days like this, it’s important to run some screens, in order to identify what is working (going up).

The reasoning: stocks that outperform in bad tapes, usually rip the heads off of bears in strong tapes.

Often times there is a news item that can create anomalies; so do some research prior to buying one, fuckface.

Here is my raw list:

ADBE, ICE, NDAQ, CME, ISE, NLY, IAAC, HRL, PEP, MCD, SLE, HANS, CPO, BAGL, TDG, DSL, FED, TYC, PMFG, MIDD, CHD, LMT, DRS, UN, ALE, WCG, ISRG, CN, BRNC, NOV, CAM, SM, BTJ, FTI, SPIR, OSIP, ZGEN, BLUD, LH, WLP, UNH, HSP, MHS, IIG, AMZN, MMM, MO, SFLY, FSLR, QCOM, DIVX, STAR, COH, ZRAN, HIT, ATVI, ELX, DISH, BRCM, NOK, XMSR, PAY, LXK, BTUI, FTE, DT, PHI, SVR, LUNA, COMV, CVI, RIMM and all of the utilities.

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Yen Carry Trade Unravels; Market Dives

If you are scratching your head, wondering why the market is weak, take a look at the yen versus dollar, via FXY.

With the yen carry trade unraveling before our eyes, liquidity is getting tighter. This all comes at a time when U.S. banks are crippled, thanks to sub-prime issues and the Fed, foolishly, worrying about inflation, instead of blood in the streets.

I know some of you dumb fuckers believe they (Fed) should stop cutting rates, in order to defend the dollar. However, I’m telling you now, if they fail to “rescue” the banking system, there will be dozens of publicly traded banks filing for bankruptcy.

Basically, the Fed needs to figure out a way to save the economy. Let the Treasury figure the dollar out. How about a dollar buyback?

So, in the meantime, financials, retail, and homebuilders are in recession, while everything else teeters.

Regarding the market:

We will retest the August lows. I’m not buying anything until 12,800.

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We’re Gonna Bounce Today, Aren’t We?

We can’t go down on turkey weak, come on.

Plus anyway, I just spoke with a friend of mine and he said: “we’re gonna bounce today.”

However, it’s worth noting, he says: “we’re gonna bounce today,” pretty much everyday.

Also, when the market is ripping higher, he says: “we’re going lower today.”

Costanza trading at its highest level.

So, forget all of your idiotic charts or fundamental analysis. We’re gonna bounce today, because some dude from NYC said so.

How’s that for meaningless market commentary?

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If AAPL & RIMM Go Down…

…pack your bags and go home.

Everything is getting the “homo-hammer” of death, except RIMM and AAPL—bull market favorites.

Here’s my take:

Watch those two stocks closely, because if they start breaking down, the Naz is going to “shit the shower,” in a very bad way.

Furthermore, if you’re bearish, it makes sense to sell them short here, for a trade.

If you’re long, like me, go eat a sandwich—then take a nap or sell everything

Either scenario is perfectly acceptable.

NOTE: Should the market go up from here, I suspect both AAPL and RIMM will offer leadership.

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Groundhog Day

Why bother buying the dips, if all we get is the same miserable tape, every-single-day?

Look at FNM. That stock has been obliterated, alongside almost every other financial related stock.

Running through my list, SOV, BBX, C, RBS, MER, MS, LEH, BSC, BCS, just to name a few, look terrible, while GS presses higher.

Providing the market stays in the tank, there is no way GS can sustain its current valuation. I don’t care how “smart” those fuckers are; the stock will trade lower—eventually.

As for today’s trading:

UN, LMT, PCP, MCD and other defensive stocks continue to press higher, while everything else languishes—preparing for the death blade.

Barring a miraculous reversal, the market is on its way to shed another 1-2%, led down by financials, basic resources and retail—all recessionary signals.

This market is pretty much gay.

Enjoy.

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