Investors are throwing in the proverbial towels, ahead of the beginning of Q2 earnings. The mood is somber and the traders are glum. All of a sudden, oil deserves to go much, much lower, because it was a scam in the first place. They say “prices were manipulated higher,” yet offer no evidence to back up such assertions.
In short, stocks are selling off because people think the recovery is bullshit. My sense: Who the fuck knows if the economy is snapping back or just plain snapping? My long bias is based upon the idea that, despite the tumultuous economy, the S&P is still cheap and things are not nearly as bad as some people are forecasting, such as S&P 150 or Dow 34.
However, none of my beliefs will save me from losing money, should the tidal wave of pessimism reemerge. With that in mind, I will raise more cash today, in order to slow things down a bit.
As for hedges:
The traditional inverse etf’s suck balls. [[FAZ]] is a waste of good alphabet letters. Forget about the levered etf’s and go with individual short sales.
As for me, I will give the market some more time to catch its balls, holding onto good names like OmniVision Technologies, Inc. [[OVTI]] , Corning Incorporated [[GLW]] and TEKELEC [[TKLC]], before I start hedging. However, just know, the only reason why I am so patient is due to my big cushion of gains. If I wasn’t up so much, I’d probably be shitting the shower now, wondering when the “homo-hammer of certain death” was going to rain down on my skull.
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“However, just know, the only reason why I am so patient is due to my big cushion of gains. If I wasn’t up so much, I’d probably be shitting the shower now, wondering when the “homo-hammer of certain death” was going to rain down on my skull.”
That comment above reminds me what I tell myself when I’m up a lot at poker before I blow up – “I can afford to play a little loose because I’m up a lot”. Usually it’s the sign of impending death trap ahead.
ESLR down 7% today. Adami nailed that one yesterday… it wasn’t down with the rest yesterday so it’s good to go!
Master Fly, a nice hedge would be just to sell your 3X ERX long 😛
DIG shows a real nice head and shoulders that broke the neck last week, retested it and failed hard.
Fly you don’t need no advice at what to do and as you say it is your belief and your personal trading bias/situation due to egregious gains that affords you this kind of strategy. That said I just can’t hang in Tech or smartphone/4G play until we sort out this correction shit. As for your hedging with FAZ why bother it just doesn’t work …. check out BGZ or even better TZA which responded much better as hedge proxies to NDX tech then your other inverse.
this isn’t poker, dipshit
>>However, just know, the only reason why I am so patient is due to my big cushion of gains. If I wasn’t up so much, <<
Fly, WTF is wrong with you! Gains is not an excuse for crappy trading. Get your head in the game, you dont trade to lose money now do you? If every year is a new beginning, then every quarter/month/day should be treated the same! Trade on whether you think you will lose or win tomorrow and not on “ohh I got a cushion to get fucked on, let me spread open wide enough for you!”
the S&P is still cheap and things are not nearly as bad as some people are forecasting, such as S&P 150 or Dow 34.
How do you know the S&P 500 is presently cheap? Answer, YOU FUCKING DON’T!
Welcome back to reality you PermaIdiots … Prepare for new lows, possibly this month! Death to Green Shoots!
actually, there is references to suggest it is cheap.
Oil & natty down sux for me/us.
agree with u Fly…..
We just heard the news that a Negro singer passed away. We hope it wasn’t Little Richard. He is a nice young man although his pants are a little tight.
Wouldn’t it be funny if the S&P stayed range bound, even sold off a bit and just rallied into the fall and fucked all the doomsters? It is not as bad out there as people think. Unless, you live in Detroit, but who would wanna live in that shit hole anyway?
testing
I’m so badass I vacation in detroit…
seen on some t-shirt somewhere..
308…dont they pay people to lunch in Detroit now…shit hole.
I’m up a lot, therefore I can be extra reckless with my money.
hey fly where is your efin “PPT bounce”?
yesterday was the bounce
RIMM falling off a steep cliff.. bounce tomorrow I guess…
1% down is falling off a cliff?
Not as bad as people think? Wake up.
Average hours worked is down to 33 hours. If that were normalized for a 40 hours week, a million people would have been fired last month.
Green turds are everywhere except select tech.
I guess the ERX at the end was not a good idea. Despite the gaps. Oil (Cl Q9) is on a double top pattern and Natty is just dead so why going ERX ?. specially when tomorrow and Thursday might be another big build in inventories.
Fly. You never showed your charts. I hope you got out.
cheers
308:
Didn’t Tim Seymour say to load up the boat on RIMM below 70?
Fly, you think S&P 500 is cheap?! Are you out of your fu**ing mind?
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-stocks-cheap-dont-be-a-fool-2009-6
and I’m sure if you read http://market-ticker.denninger.net/ often, we are no where near “cheap”… wake the fu** up…
Also this is a sad event for all American… American will just keep on getting ripped off as usually…
http://zentrader.ca/blog/?p=2017
These dumfuks don’t know that in a recession, the S&P P-E ratio can easily go above SIXTY.
A few years ago it went to INFINITY as the S&P earnings were negative.
June, how is your cute little Beaver doing?
You fair-weather friends of fly make me sick. If you don’t understand the concept of being more aggressive with gains than losses, then you shouldn’t be trading.
Fly is a momentum guy, and unlike your dumbass that sells 1/15th of the way into a move to “lock in profit”, he lets profits ride until momentum is proven to be reversed (not just stalled). This leads to monster gains and bleed out exits….but then again most of you hop on the bandwagon after he’s made 15/16ths of the run and then get all pissy when he’s patient and you’re red.
get a clue.
You’re still hanging on to FTK, huh…
Slowing rate of economic decline = green shoots? LOL. And don’t get me started on the “stimulus”…I’m already hearing rumblings about the need for a second stimulus, what does that say about how the first stimulus is going??
Could be time for the small and medium sized regional banks to do something.
KRE (regional bank etf) is unchanged now and was up ahead of the market turnaround yesterday.
STI,ZION,FITB,PNC, etc.
Rumors of mergers?
any one like Obama here???…i think he is screwing more ….
I think Fly must like him because he still has bumper stickers on his new car that says Hope and Change.
lol
This is starting to feel like last autumn to me..I offed 3positions and hold 5 others with trepidation. There is no news bad or good and down it goes. This is after the market roared up on bad everything..except green shoots..Hope Fly is correct but I ve had a bad feeling for 2 weeks and like an ass ignored it..GOOD LUCK ALL
I’ll be happy with Obama as long as he kills private scam health insurance. So far it seems to me democrats are doing everything possible to lose the next two elections.
Goldman buying stocks == time to sell
So Steak n’ Terranova steals my ideas on oil, Gartman looks like he’s about to fall asleep on camera, and everyone is worried about an unemployment rate that everyone also knew was going this high and higher still.
Ok, so?
The market is dull, and even idiots like me know the addage about shorting dull markets.
I mean i hate america as much as any good patriot, but if things are not getting markedly “worse” than you need to assume that they’ll get “better”. If there’s no iminent nuke to drop on this market, other than average earnings, where’s the short trade?
going long Yellowtail sashimi and seaweed salad for lunch…this mkt is putting me too sleep
mmmmmmm. hamachi. nice.
Okay people. No more trading talk.
Time to stop out of respect for Michael Jackson Memorial Service. 😉
You all have gorilla brains.
Fly –
Are you picking up more GLW here, waiting for a better price or have you already bought all the GLW you want?
Can you fuckers see me now?
Well played.
Got some DMM (the 3x inverse Case Shiller Housing ETF) this morning. It has been running on increasing volume the last few days which is half of its existence. I put up a KOPG post about it
http://ibankcoin.com/king_of_the_pg/
Otherwise, quite happy with my BGZ, DTO (short 2x crude), and still waiting on UNG although I think it might finally be done falling.
from money.cnn:
Stocks tumbled Tuesday morning, as jittery investors dumped shares ahead of the start of the G8 summit and the second-quarter corporate reporting period…
Yah, I admit I was jittery because I locked in my profits like a dumbass. Unlike Fly I don’t have to be invested 100% of the time.
The coroner has released new facts that suggest MJ died of slow food poisoning.
It seems for years he’d been ingesting 12 year old nuts.
Too soon?
no but old already. I heard that joke on this very message board a week or so ago. But a great one nonetheless!
Sorry. Haven’t checked in very often lately. It was such a junior high kind of joke I thought it would play well here.
Breaking News . . . .
Michael Jackson’s body will be wheeled in at the end of today’s memorial ceremony.
He always liked to come in a little behind.
Bury him already – stop this macabre scene! When will Goldman move the market? Are they short GS?
Nice. “Macabre” is very underused these days.
That’s a treasury word.
__
Banks are showing a bit of life with Bac in positive territory. Stocks could close higher today.
I’m doing it again after taking profit on those positions I dealt last evening. I’m buying Dollar yen and Euro yen. Same close stops and getting in at almost the same levels.
And Tim Knight is bearish and acting like a Mr. Know-all-Nice-Guy so I’d love to see this shit boomerang back in his self satisfied, fat complacent face.
btw. MJ is getting buried without his brain. cf. The Wiz
I also heard that he wants to be buried at sea.
Strapped between a couple of buoys.
AA just spiked on comments from the CEO, dunno what the news was, but its just what the doc ordered 🙂
Knight’s a freaking moron. He put up a diagram that one of his sycophants sent him of what he calls a deflationary spiral. What a chucklehead
It’s nothing of the fucking sort. The diagram basically characterizes a fucking recession. Every single recession looks like that and Knight thinks it’s a diagram that deserve the Nobel prize for economics because it somehow explains a “deflationary” spiral.
You just wanna get him in headlock and rub his head with your knuckles until he’s red raw.
Fuck he irritates me. Fuck!!!!
Whattaya want? He’s a Silcon Valley geek playing trader.
I really wish he’d spend more time fixing those Prophet Charts. I love ’em… when they work, I mean.
_________
UNG halted.
Nutso.
one more quick hard rally to trrap shorts..would be nice…just saying.
Here is the chart of the day — scroll to the bottom — Go Fly:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/the-best-of-the-money-blogs/article1196635/
UNG was a scam – hopefully it will go to ZERO.
I believe it was halted at the request of Goldman as they were short the UNG etf and since it was actually going up the boyz decided to readjust the price so GS can then cover with a profit.
Yea I think that is the secret behind GS trading strategy – you know the one that was supposedly stolen.
the S&P is still cheap …
Huh?
20%+ of those companies won’t even be around in five years.
Stupidity and Fuckery abounds…..the Scared Money will miss the next leg up…….you know, during the next leg of lies and fuckery to pump it up, as we all know WILL happen.