iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,317 Blog Posts

Bulls in Charge, For Now

Sometimes it’s helpful to take a step back and be objective, regarding the market. Unfortunately, I’ve been on the wrong side of a trade or market, numerous times, throughout my career. What’s important to understand, when positions are going against you, is the reason why you hold them (positions) in the first place.

And, when initiating or building those positions, make sure you have ample cash reserves to buy cheaper—just in case you’re wrong.

Personally, the last thing I want to do is admit defeat, sell my losers and succumb to “what’s working.” However, many times, that’s exactly what should be done.

For example: I should have sold all of my [[AAPL]] a long time ago. The stock has been a bowser in 2008 and has been a significant drag on my portfolios. Instead, I should have put the money to work in oil/natty or something else worth the fucking paper it’s written on.

With regards to my current short positions:

Rational people would suggest to run for cover, since the bull is back and the sellers have no balls. For now, sitting on top of good year to date gains, I will give myself a little more rope to hang myself with, while eagerly awaiting this run to fizz out. Keep in mind, I believe the market will be down between 10-15% this year. Being down a mere 5% (YTD) on the DOW doesn’t scream “fucking value” to me. Considering the 450 point run, in three days, I feverishly suggest selling twice over.

With that being said, doing my screens, I’ve come across a good list of stocks that are working (today)— and a few that are not.

Financials:

Good: [[BX]], [[FCSX]], [[FIG]], [[MBI]], [[JNS]], [[TROW]], [[COF]], [[C]], [[LEH]], [[ABK]], [[FMD]]

Bad: [[ABK]], [[RMG]], [[SDA]], [[ICE]], [[RJF]], [[GS]]

Retail:

Good: [[RSH]], [[M]], [[MSO]], [[BID]], [[AZO]], [[SHLD]], [[KCP]], [[BEBE]], [[BGP]], [[GES]], [[COH]], [[ZUMZ]]

Bad: [[KSWS]], [[LULU]]

Food and Beverage:

Good: [[LNY]], [[JBX]], [[BWLD]], [[TXRH]], [[ABV]], [[DRI]], [[HANS]], [[DPZ]], [[PZZA]]

Bad: [[COT]], [[GAP]], [[BAGL]]

Energy:

Good: [[NTG]], [[TSO]], [[DWSN]], [[STP]], [[CHNR]], [[PQ]], [[DPTR]], [[CLNE]], [[ARD]], [[FTO]], [[PDC]], [[CSIQ]], [[WNR]], [[ALJ]].

Bad: [[USU]], [[PKD]], [[NGAS]], [[YGE]], [[GASS]], [[LNG]], [[LDK]], [[TSL]], [[HOKU]], [[NWN]], [[BTU]]

Semi’s:

Good: [[TER]], [[CREE]], [[EMKR]], [[ATE]], [[SMTC]], [[SWKS]], [[FORM]], [[INTC]], [[KLAC]]

Bad: [[TSRA]], [[SNDK]], [[SIGM]]

Internet:

Good: [[NFLX]], [[CTRP]], [[PCLN]]

Bad: [[TSCM]], [[GOOG]], [[BIDU]], [[WBMD]], [[MELI]], [[EBAY]]

Trannies:

Good: [[GWR]], [[ACLI]], [[GBX]], [[OSG]], [[BNI]]

Bad: [[DRYS]], [[EXM]], [[NM]]

Metals:

Good: [[ERS]]. [[IIIN]], [[PAAS]], [[ROCK]]

Bad: [[ZEUS]], [[ZOLT]]

Industrials:

Good: [[DCO]], [[GRO]], [[CLX]], [[LAYN]], [[DW]], [[MHK]], [[KAMN]], [[VMI]], [[LNN]], [[LECO]], [[EXH]], [[WHR]], [[TEX]]

Bad: [[CRDN]], [[PCP]], [[IRBT]], [[TITN]], [[CSL]]

Hardware:

Good: [[DELL]], [[HTCH]], [[EMC]], [[AUO]], [[TRMB]]

Bad: [[AAPL]], [[RIMM]], [[DISH]], [[NNDS]], [[GRMN]]

Wireless:

Good: [[CNTF]], [[TKC]], [[VM]], [[IDCC]], [[SWIR]], [[MBT]], [[USM]], [[NIHD]], [[VIP]], [[MICC]]

Bad: [[SKM]]

Currencies:

Good: [[FXY]], [[FXE]], [[FXC]], [[UDN]]

Bad: Dollars

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Who Cares?

I bet you thought the market was gonna get its false teeth knocked out today, huh? After all, we are “enjoying” hyper inflation in food, at a time when the economy is contracting. However, the conundrum the bears’ find themselves in is rooted in the “forecasting” camp.

Everyone is “forecasting” a robust second half of the year. Therefore, any news that comes out now is ignored and spit at, by the buyers. These are very intelligent people, after all. Nothing matters, with the marked exception of price.

This whole rally has been wonderfully orchestrated, with fine precision. Shortly, we will hear of a deal to support the AAAA rated [[ABK]]. Then, out of the blue, there will be another deal for AAAAA rated [[MBI]]. After that, Bernanke will shave rates another 50bps and send the bears packing.

Get ready.

Developing…

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I Just Destroyed Mars

Any pictures of “The Red Nuisance,” from this day on, are nothing more than Hollywood photoshops.

Developing…

UPDATE:

  C Citi’s hits: 15 times $100 mln – WSJ (24.74 )
  The Wall Street Journal reports Citigroup (C) disclosed that traders in its investment bank piled up daily losses of more than $100 mln on 15 separate occasions last year. Those 15 days, which Citigroup disclosed in its annual report filed late Friday but declined yesterday to describe in detail, added to worries the bank’s problems are deeper than those that led to about $20 bln in mortgage-related write-downs last year, the ouster of its chief executive and a sinking stock price. In a statement last night, a Citigroup spokeswoman said the trading disclosure “highlights the volatility that existed in the markets in 2007. There were many days when we saw significant gains, including more than 55 where revenue gains exceeded $100 mln.” In its report, Citigroup gave significantly more detail about its exposure to and involvement with off-balance-sheet vehicles. The figures suggested investors still need to worry about what they can’t quite see on the bank’s books. Citigroup said off-balance-sheet entities connected to it had total assets of $356 bln, compared to $388 bln at the end of 2006. The 2007 figure, however, didn’t include $58 bln in SIVs, assets Citigroup now carries on its own books, which were included in the prior year’s tally. Of those assets, Citigroup has a maximum possible exposure to loss of about $152 bln, compared to $148 bln the previous year. About $14 bln of this potential loss comes from the bank’s continuing exposure to CDOs which analysts fear could be in for further downgrades.

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Maybe “The Fly” Needs a Bailout

It’s a lunatic market. What else is there to say?

Stocks go up, when they’re supposed to go down and vice versa.

One thing is abundantly clear: The bears are a bunch of old pussies, unable to ride a bicycle without training wheels, let alone drive this market lower.

Bottom line: [[POT]] is booking for $200. Retail stocks climb, despite a dead consumer. Bank stocks gain, on the backs of deceased lines of credit. In total, with the exception of a handful of tech names, the market is barely down, year to date.

This is supposed to be a “bear market” with a recessionary economy. However, investors are treating it like 1999 on vitamin B-12 injections—during boom time.

With the small amount of money I have left, I will throw money at homeless men in Manhattan.

UPDATE: The near Godly folks at iNo.com have agreed to give a free subscription, to the winner of the “Final Four” contest, offering two of their paid services for one year—with a total value is $548. Click on the myriad of of iNo ads for details (no, I do not get paid per click). More on this later.

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“The Fly” Does Not Need a Bailout

I’m fully prepared to short more [[DECK]], above $140. While it’s true, lots of dumb bitches wear them. It’s also true, mall traffic is down significantly, in recent months. For a big growth play, like DECK, all you need is a slight blip, then BAM, down 50 bucks.

With my money, I’ve been shorting more [[LEH]] and buying [[FXP]] and [[SKF]]. Thus far, I’m content with my [[SRS]] position and will accumulate more, at lower prices—God willing.

Over the weekend, I did extensive research on ETF’s. It’s amazing to see how many bases the banking fuckers have covered. There is an ETF for just about anything.

A few spiked my interest.

I like [[DBV]] here. DBV gets long G-10 currencies with the highest yields, while short the lowest yielding ones. And, [[UDN]] shorts the dollar, against foreign currencies. In my opinion, both are good plays.

And, for a direct play on grain, minus the dilution of other commodities, take a look at [[GRU]], which gets you long wheat and corn. Or, do a little work on [[FUE]], which gets you long soy, corn and sugar.

Aside from that, there is a myriad of China and commodity etf’s worth mentioning. More on this later.

For now, just know, “The Fly” is not fucking around when it comes to the market. He is always 1,000 steps ahead of you and all of your stupid geeky friends.

Top pick: “The Fly”

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Our Future Currency

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4jIpJSGL3c 450 300]

“Go buy yourself something nice.”

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A Few Annoying Things

I’ll have you know, “The Fly” gets annoyed quickly. It doesn’t take much to set me off, even when sleeping. Sometimes, I get so mad by my egregious dreams/nightmares, I kill everyone in them (usually via Tommy Gun mow down)—then wake up happy. Analyze that.

Currently, here are some of the things that are irritating me:

– “Ag stocks” going higher, Ad nauseam.

– Natural Gas approaching $10, without a “hurricane of death.”

– Charlie Gasparino always looking tired and shit.

– Not knowing how many cups of coffee Dylan Ratigan drinks, per hour.

Wall Street Fighter picking [[ASIA]] in the Final Four Contest.

– Wall Street Fighter thinking he can beat “The Fly” via ASIA.

– Monoline bailouts.

– Busted time machines.

– Steel stocks going up, Ad nauseam.

– Former “bearish” fund mangers turn bullish.

– Third tier bloggers.

– Cold coffee.

– Cramer.

Developing…

UPDATE: This man annoys me too.

Greenspan says expect further write-downs, bankruptcies – DJ
  DJ reports there will be a burst of further write-downs and even bankruptcies among banks as they clear debris left by subprime, former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Monday. “It’s gonna be a while before prices of homes stabilize and we get significant clarity on the size of losses. Until then, we’ll see further write-offs and bankruptcies,” Greenspan told delegates in Abu Dhabi. “Stabilizing prices will stabilize the price of asset-backed securities. But that’s the point at which the system starts to recover,” he added.

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This Time it’s Different

Back in 2002, I wanted the Fed to lower rates. The economy was shit on a stick and joblessness was abundant. Fast forward to today, I fucking hate the fuckers who ruined the economy, namely the housing assholes. Because of this, I’m against rates going to 0% (inflation adjusted). Plus anyway, aside from the fag state of California, unemployment rates are benign.

I’m not sure if it’s just me, but I want those banking fuckers to pay a price, without severance, for what they did. Look around, you can see the economy is slowing. Low-end stores are closing. Mall traffic is pathetic. Starbucks is less flamboyantly gay.

However, we all know, the only reason why Bernanke is slashing rates is to “help out” the banks. On top of that, we have Moody’s and S &P publicly committing fraud, with the friendly help of Gov’t officials, keeping the monoline’s AAA rated. The whole situation is surreal and wreaks of misconduct.

It’s not a surprise to me, when at dinner parties or other “high-end” occasions, to hear people bitch about Wall Street, unwilling to invest in the long term viability of America.

Now, the great rage is commodities. Wall Street is spitting out commodity ETF’s faster than Gasparino wolf’s down meatballs (no offense to chop meat lovers). As sure as I’m sitting here, 10 bucks says commodity prices top out within 6 months.

I say this with certainty because Wall Street bankers are ALWAYS wrong. They feed people what they want. Most of the time, the masses or unwashed are 100% wrong.

With regards to bad tips:

Throughout the years doing business, I’ve been the recipient of terrific tips and horrendous ones. It’s the nature of the tip business. The “tipper” has an agenda. Always keep that in mind when taking a tip for face value. Upon receiving bad tips, “The Fly,” without warning, will send a few bored guys from Brooklyn to the “tippers” house to spray paint “I’m a fucking jerkoff” on the side of his house.

In general, trading off of tips is a bad idea.

Top pick: [[SRS]]

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