CRUNCH TIME

So the dinosaurs and soon to be deposed lemon suckers over at OPEC raised output. As a result, crude is lower, creating a conundrum for your truly. My large position in APC is on the threshold of being down 10%, now down 7.7%. This is especially disheartening (it makes me cry) since APC, usually, does very well in March. Either I double down at 10% or I sell it out: it’s that simple.

The easy trade is to admit defeat and sell it, then take the proceeds and time my next buy with honor and integrity. However, there is a distinct possibility that crude will trade higher next week, as the unwashed feed their leaders to the Kraken!

Other positions trading lower, such as BORN, FORM and BZ will not be sold, mainly because their respective earnings reports were better than expected. However, I will be selling out of ARO today. They just blew it.

As for new buys: I don’t see any reason to rush trades here. At the moment, my time is better served napping and/or fixating on destroying the great many enemies that plague me.

Just when you thought things couldn’t get worse for Japan, an earthquake of biblical proportions, 8.9 magnitude, has hit its northern coast and has resulted in a 7 meter long tsunami. This is the biggest earthquake to hit Japan in more than 300 years.

Unrelated, futures are in the tank and the Heng Seng is down more than 450 points.

Update: multiple countries (over50) in Asia, even South America, are issuing tsunami warnings.

MSNBC has live coverage

Although unchanged from February, Chinese inflation exceeded analysts expectations—coming in at 4.9%. The tea lovers were expecting something less dramatic, like 4.7%. If you didn’t know, China has a real inflation issue, which may lead to the unwashed rioting in the streets, tossing around petrol bombs and eating the livers of their local magistrates.

According to the laws dictated by The PPT, inverse silver ETF ZSL is approaching (within 3%) OVERBOUGHT levels, which is a significant occurrence. Over the previous 10 PPT OVERBOUGHT signals, ZSL traded lower in 9 of them for an average loss of 10.65.%

For those of you who failed to get in the last go around, this may be your chance to ride the “silver suckers” to the roads of Elysium.

Twelve Spanish lenders fall short of Spain’s minimum capital requirement, including giant Bankia, with a reported shortfall of 5.8 billion euros. As always, the olive squeezers will find a way to resolve this issue, amicably, in order to preserve the natural order of things.

Full story.

God bless bailouts and skirting personal responsibility. The debt burden on U.S. consumers is now at its lowest point in 6 years, shrinking to an astonishingly high $13.4 Trillion or 116% of disposable income. Average household net worth increased to $505,000 in 2010, up 5.1% from 2009.

The absurd reality is that consumers, despite what men in burlap overcoats say, are flush with cash and/or credit— and may start to spend like wild Indians, drunk at Foxwoods, lending to the ongoing recovery.

SHFL: Shuffle Master beats by $0.01, misses on revs

CLNE: Clean Energy Fuels beats by $0.01, beats on revs

AIRM: Air Methods beats by $0.23, beats on revs

ARO: Aeropostale beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS below consensus; guides FY12 EPS below consensus

NSM: National Semi reports EPS in-line, misses on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line

ULTA: Ulta Salon beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

ZQK: Quiksilver reports EPS in-line, beats on revs

ZUMZ: Zumiez beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS below consensus

JSDA: Jones Soda reports reports Q4 EPS of ($0.06) vs ($0.17) last year

STLD: Steel Dynamics sees Q1 EPS of $0.37-0.42 vs $0.40 Thomson Reuters consensus; increases Q1 dividend 33% QoQ to $0.10

LIME: Lime Energy beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q1 and FY11 revs to the upside

ALOG: Analogic misses by $0.03, beats on revs

POWR: PowerSecure misses by $0.03, misses on revs

LOV: Spark Networks reports Q4EPS of $0.03 vs. ($0.47) in 4Q09

THO: Thor Industries misses by $0.11, reports revs in-line

Rolling into today’s trade, the entirety of my personal account was long just one stock, leveraged at 150%. Additionally, for managed accounts, one stock made up 20% of my holdings.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

I win even when losing. Like the inexplicable nonsense taking place at Puma Punku, “The Fly” finds himself practically unscathed by today’s carnage, long boatloads of OPEN, much to your chagrin. Naturally, your initial reaction will be one of denial, classic third class behavior. However, I insist that you respect the banner by which I am represented. You do not need to like me, just respect the hammer, for it is stained with the brains of my mortal enemies.

For managed accounts, I was down less than 1.25%, thanks to the fucking homos at APC.

My sense, we trade up soon. On the eyes of Jupiter, the bulls shall have their revenge soon and it will be served in a very vengeful manner.

Indeud.

Commodity related stocks are leading to the downside here, as investors trample over each other for the exits. The dollar (UUP) and treasuries (TLT) are both up 0.9% and 1.4%, respectively. People are interested in deflationary trades, yet again. Hence, the old “Hugh Hendry trade” is back on.

The biggest laggards amongst large cap stocks are ARMH (-9%), CLF (-6.5%), NTAP (-6.5%), NVDA (-6%), SLW (-6%), NOV (-6%), ASML (-5.7%) and BTU (-5.5%)

Elevator down.

I added to my OPEN position, as if this market was up.