Fly SWAP: TZA for TNA

I sold out of my TZA and bought TNA. common and calls.

Here I am, sitting here in my gold throne, adorned with high grade diamonds and buckets of rare/priceless painite, grandidierite and jeremejevite, unable to find places to park my cash. Truth be told, as is always the case, I am very much interested in going long here. However, at the end of the day, I mustn’t betray my disciplines, buying into names that are in danger of an EPS cut.

Most of the tech sector is in grave danger of having dramatic (no homo) cuts, as well as retail. I love the balance sheet and numbers coming out of DECK, but wouldn’t be surprised to see a 15% slash in expectations, based around the idea the world as we know it is down the shitter.

Commodity related stocks are risky, due to the pervasive deflation plaguing the world. Should we have a credit event, oil will be back to $30, swallowing whole companies amidst debilitating and crippling debt restructuring efforts.

My conundrum is serious, one that will need to be hashed out by my calculator brain, assisted by my fucking space capsule. At a minimum, TNA is an option, as well as a variety of diversified ETF’s.

As the market gets lit up like a roman candle, my largest position, WNR, is up and my TZA is running without shoes. My TZA calls are ridiculous, now +150% inside of a short week, so pardon me if I seem somewhat lackadaisical in my blogging efforts. While it’s true, my TBT position isn’t fairing too well. It’s also true, it was never a big one to begin with. I was sort of moonlighting with it, a dart in the dark, the proverbial walk through the sand littered with bouncing Betty landmines.

With regards to the refiners, this is all you need to know. Crack spreads are higher today, now above $35, and the WTI-Brent crude spread is at all time highs ($28.) Okay? So as the world burns, the underlying fundies for WNR have never been better.

My question to you is this: once trading gets back to normal and asset (asshat) managers look for places to park cash, where do you think they will put it, with regards to the energy sector?

Exactly.

I never besmirch my fellow investor for trading the tape in front of him. However, you can’t go around acting like you have a dogs brain either. For once, why don’t you get ahead of the curve and quit picking up the scraps?

Having said that, I will be closing out my TZA position today. I made a great deal of money in it for my personal/aggressive account and will start to scour the market for longs. With the Swiss Franc getting obliterated, thanks to the peg, I’d avoid gold as if it were the Black Death itself. It is entirely plausible to see the seemingly “risk off” assets targeted by the power elite, in order to funnel people back into stocks. Do not be fooled by price action. There is a bubble in non-risk assets, enveloping treasuries, gilts, bunds, francs, utility stocks and gold.

At the present, I still hold over 60% cash.

Is your seat death proof?

“I’m afraid you’re gonna have  to start getting scared, immediately.”

The lawsuit by the FHFA against our biggest banks is infectious and will likely destroy the very banks we bailed out in 2008. More importantly, the banks are now un-investable , until  there is a tobacco like settlement to ring fence the claims. This disgusting country will destroy itself, one fucking lawsuit at a time.

Since moral hazard was tossed out the window, everyone wants a piece of the action. Homeowners are suing BAC for LENDING THEM MONEY, at the peak of the housing market. Every institution that got burned on CDO’s will go after the banks, hoping to get a piece of the “settlement action,” all encouraged by the idiots in this administration, vis a vis the FHFA suit.

My guess, these suits will take years to settle, but will effectively hamstring the banks from lending money to you. The net result will be hilariously sad deflation and a broken banking system. I suspect the FHFA will win and several banks will fold or consolidate with other troubled banks. This is all happening at a time when the european banking system is in disarray and our economy is dying slowly. Frankly, I am besides myself at how incompetent the Obama administration is for letting this happen. I don’t care about QE3 anymore, since the fucking banking system is about to be led to its demise.

As an aside, I am tired of guidos mispronouncing the names of certain foods, like mozzarella, calamari and capicola. It’s not MUTZAREL or GALAMAR or GABBAGAUL you fucking idiots. You are not from the south of Italy, but the south of New Jersey, you peasant flee-bags.

Full disclosure, The PPT flagged OVERBOUGHT for the market on 8/29-8/31, when the SPY traded $121-$122.22. Out of respect for current PPT members, I will not reveal some of the things it is spitting out today. However, let’s just say, the robots have gone mad.

Swiss 3 and 6 month yields are NEGATIVE. Money is pouring in US treasuries, as well as German and UK bonds.Why? Because big money needs safety. They can’t leave it in the bank; the FDIC doesn’t secure big money, just the plebs. If you are a manager of a large amount of assets, you have no choice but to buy government bonds. They need the full faith and credit of a secure sovereign nation. Frankly, these sort of developments should scare you. There is an unknown here and the fucktards at CNBC do not know what it is.

Buying here means everything resolves itself over the long weekend and we’re back to snorting cocaine out of $10,000 bills again. The cynic in me keeps me from buying into that fairytale.

There is a major bubble being built in “non-risky” assets, ironically. Swiss Francs, government bonds, high grade corporate bonds, gold, silver, utilities, are being overrun with old money. I’ve been thinking about this for a long time now and have not figured it out. The push is coming from sovereign governments, insurance firms and monstrous asset management firms. Apparently, their economists believe we are heading into deep recession. That’s what the market is suggesting, in my opinion.

The bottom line: I am interested in buying several names down here, but will wait until Tuesday. I own WNR, GSVC and TBT for “risk on” trades and TZA for HORATIO.

This shit is giving me a headache. I need a drink.

I don’t buy into spiraling markets, ahead of a long weekend. I don’t fucking buy ahead of stark raving mad recessions and I don’t eat fatty foods. While the majority of you are obese, due to your high saturated fat intake, “The Fly” lives lean and is able to do exponentially more push ups than you. It’s not important that I bulk up, like some of you muscle brained perverts. I can run faster than you and have the ability to travel through time, vis a vis my fucking time machine (duh).

Having said all of that, I am not buying into this dip, not yet. The time for dip buying is near, but not today.

The game-plan is this: use this weakness to book egregious profits on my TZA common and call positions (calls are now up 70%). Upon a flush out and cat calls of a greater new recession, I intend to buy the blood and profit from an extreme oversold condition. Being that I will be researching short ideas this weekend, immediately following a dead cat (that’s two cats in one paragraph) bounce, I intend to throw a few fucking shorts on the barby. Please note, I will only initiate short positions into strength. I am NOT fucking chasing these stocks down a rabbit hole, only to have a fucking grande piano thrown on my torso by Bernanke.

My TBT experiment went retardo wrong, now down 5% for the day. I will cut losses on this fucker, should it trade down on Tuesday.

In the big scheme of things, I am unscathed from today’s decline, now off by just 0.2% for the day.

I know this post is going to stir up plenty of controversy, especially amongst the oatmeal connoisseur type. I must admit, having tasted every oatmeal known to mankind and space invaders, Quaker Oatmeal reigns supreme. Fuck your Irish oats and that Whole Foods shit.

I know many of you suggest the evil industrialists at Quaker make their oatmeal from 100% plastic or chicken. I don’t care. The texture of the oats are simply better. I find no need to add sugar or milk with Quaker. I can eat it like a horse, as God intended.

While your opinions on this important matter may be noted, they are most certainly NOT appreciated.

It’s all over folks. We can bounce off oversold levels; but it’s all over. Recession is all but a foregone conclusion. You should expect to hear a lot from “The Great Roubini” in the coming and weeks and months, warning you about “no more policy rabbits”—whatever the fuck that means.

The numbers all add up and you need to be honest with yourself. Obama is a zero, just like today’s jobs report. We are in the midst of a severe tailspin and our only hope is President Romney. However, before we can price that in, we need to price this in. Earnings estimates need to come down, a lot. Naturally, THE BEARDED CLAM will interfere in this fair fight and throw cocaine laden nuclear bombs at the bears. I don’t even know how to respond to that, other than contemplate taking up the hobby of puzzles. What I do know is the market will most likely be much lower than it is today, 6 months from now.

Over the weekend, I will be building a short sale list, to be posted inside The PPT first. I am not an overzealous person and understand the rubberband effect. Meaning: we can bounce from these levels. I just need to get my ducks in order, prepare for the inevitable whoosh lower.

If you got caught long today, do not be stubborn about your position. You may very well get a rally soon, based upon the notion that Helicopter Ben will toss bricks of cocaine out of his, ummm, helicopter. But remember, we rallied in 2009-2010 when the economy was growing. I am not so sure how QE3 will mesh with negative GDP numbers.

The math is simple: reduce 2012 eps projections of $94 to $70, slap a 13X multiple on it and voila: you have your real market bottom right there.

A quick way to blow yourself up is to believe there is no way your thesis can go wrong. For example: I believe the market will trade lower. Yes I do. However, I am not selling my WNR or GSVC. Reason being, I am not in the stocks for 1-2 points. I am in them for monster, gorilla, cocaine rallies, the sort of shit books are based on. I am perfectly comfortable absorbing loses in my longs, especially since my exposure is so limited. Plus, the market might just go higher, despite my sentiments.

Understand something, if I lose 15% on 40% of my assets, I am only losing around 5%. I piss on 5%. If timed correctly, I can reallocate my 60% cash horde (Ducktails) and bank 20% on keenly placed trades. That’s a 12% kicker, not including what I will make back on current longs into an uptick. In other words, I intend to make 20% on the next move higher, pushing my year to date gains past 30%.

Over the past few days, I’ve been bleeding out a little, 1% here, 1% there. At the present, I am +15% for the year; but my BETA is very low.

Ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report, I am sitting on my tank, smoking a cuban, watching amateurs shoot each other in the face with kalashnikovs. I have my TZA calls hedge (+30%+ today) and will sell it whenever the shadows near my favorite urinal tell me to.