Winning While Losing

As you know by now, earlier this morning “The Fly” was in flux, having a crisis of sorts, doubting his own logic pertaining to his grandiose investment decisions. Fast forward a few hours and his confidence is restored. Ten thousand apologies to any of you who were startled/worried about “The Fly’s” mental state, as he is back to urinating on homeless men and crafting new gravity hammers for the heads of his staff of amateur cold callers.

The WNR shall rise again.

On a separate note, silver is getting absolutely poleaxed here. Typically, I do not like to catch knives; but this shit is silly. It’s wax on/wax off in this motherfucker and people are being obliterated via high margin levels. Where silver stops bleeding is anyone’s guess. I took a shot, buying both AG and PSLV, just in case it bounces hard off these oversold levels. I realize Carlos Slim and anyone with a series 7 is short silver now. However, aside from the margin requirements at the CME, nothing has changed. The dollar will still go down and QE3 will happen.

Additionally, I added to my VCLK and ALJ positions because my cock, for lack of a better term, has been reattached.

A great man once said “The Fly wins all the time, even when he appears to have all but wiped himself off the globe.” Indeud.

It is ongoing.

They took 30+ mill in hedging losses and 45-55 mill in EBITDA losses due to an outage in February. They are now 20% hedged going forward, but will not add new hedges this quarter, as they believe spreads will remain wide.

Their goal is to hedge a max of 25% at historic cracks and pay down debt.

My take: WNR was being conservative in Q1, but will take on more risk in Q2. The potential for a blowout quarter in Q2, due to their refineries operating at full capacity, no signs of demand destruction and potential sale of their Yorktown refinery, coupled with historically high spreads, seems likely. Although this company has disappointed in Q1, their reasons are rational and the stock is extraordinarily oversold and undervalued at current levels.

I will be adding to this position.

I added to my ALJ position.

UPDATE: I started a new position in PSLV.

UPDATE II: I started a new position, buying AG.

UPDATE III: I added to my VCLK position.

I sold out of TZA

I am not being melodramatic or overly emotional about the contents of this post. I am offering you a general diagnosis of my performance and how I am in great need of “adjustment” in order to correct the treacherous path I find myself on.

I will reserve full judgement on WNR’s earnings miss until after the conference call. However, I think it’s fair to say, I did not expect them to miss during an environment of unbridled gift horses. It’s as if they are spastic retards, wheel chairing their way through life, getting knocked into oncoming traffic by other retards with whiffle ball bats. To think that I have aligned myself with people who get escorted into oncoming traffic by way of whiffle ball bat is reprehensible and it makes me sick.

As I drove around in my garbage truck this morning, I concluded that my recent string of set backs had nothing to do with the lack of proper ritual, sacrificing the house pets of my neighbors in exchange for unlimited stock market powers. You see, it’s all a lie, one giant fib, so why put credence into said fib? In other words, this will be the last stock that I buy based upon a thesis. For me, it’s an end of an era. In essence, my “thesis penis” has been cut off.

Other refiners like TSO and HOC have normal management teams, who do not get involved with fucktards wielding whiffle ball bats for sport. The consequences of my actions have been matched with loss of pride, dignity and monetary reserves.

“The Fly” will need to kill a great many people before his thirst for anger and bloodshed is quenched. He will need to be smart about his next moves and rely upon his time machine aka The PPT more than ever.

As an aside, there are no redeeming qualities about this tape. I will look into increasing the size of my downside plays a great deal, especially long TZA, as this market looks tired, old and woefully gay.

In closing, if you followed me into battle and lost a few arms or legs, I am sorry for your loss. It’s important to remember “they are only arms and legs” and as long as you have a penis left, life is worth pursuing.

According to the proprietary algorithms of The PPT, ZSL is OVERBOUGHT. Therefore, as a result, silver is indubitably OVERSOLD. Today’s technical score of 3.76 is the highest score ever recorded in PPT history. The track record is virtually flawless. In the 10 previous OVERBOUGHT condition of ZSL, is fell 10 times for an average loss of 16.66% over a 10 trading day time frame. Over a 5 day time frame, the algo was correct 9 of 10 times, as ZSL retraced, on average, by 10.65%.

My favorite silver stock, due to beta, is AG. However, EXK is worth a gander. To play the metal directly, AGQ and PSLV should get the job done.

On a separate note, TSO reported great numbers and should buoy the refiner space tomorrow. Again, out of all of the refiners, I am expecting WNR to post the best numbers, due to the locality of their refineries. Understand the entire complex has been taken down, alongside a number of high profile commodity names. The sell off has not been specific to the refiners. When the bounce comes, people will buy up cheap names. In my opinion, the refiners offer excellent risk/reward profile, providing demand destruction doesn’t emerge, as gasoline sustains $4.00.

The stock market is secondary to my concerns right now, as I am dealing with a series of comedic tragedies at Casa del Fly. Truthfully, I don’t want to talk about it, so let’s leave it at that.

I didn’t sell any VCLK this morning when it was nearing $20, mainly because I am a fucking idiot imbecile. Seeing a 20% intra-day move was mere child’s play for me. I suppose, deep in the back of my very tall brain, I wanted 21%. My WNR got chopped again, and I am now down on the position. Well done Fly. Well done!

Finally, I made some coin on my TZA hedge; but nothing to pop bottles over. In short, “The Fly” is going through a very dark and sinister period of his life right now.

Stop talking about my penis.

Cordially,

Fly

After punching holes in the sheet rock yesterday for the SHLD disaster, immediately, I dispatched my Voodoo physician to commit heinous crimes against innocent animals to further my stock market career. As you know, I sold lots of shit, but added to one position: VCLK.

In my personal account, I own WNR, TZA and VCLK. That’s it.

As a result of his crimes, I am benefitting in a great way today, as VCLK sprints, mind you, to “fantastical” prices. The 18% surge in VCLK wipes out my SHLD losses by a factor of 2. To get my shit in order, all I need is for CVI/WNR/ALJ to do their part and smash earnings.

I am most pleased to report, I’ve dispatched my Voodoo physician, yet again, to gather up local animals, herding them into death traps for monetary gain.

As an aside, I feel the market is for shit now and is likely to shit itself on little to no news.

This may not be working. I might be looking for something that isn’t there and never will be.

Time to start looking for shorts.