So the dinosaurs and soon to be deposed lemon suckers over at OPEC raised output. As a result, crude is lower, creating a conundrum for your truly. My large position in APC is on the threshold of being down 10%, now down 7.7%. This is especially disheartening (it makes me cry) since APC, usually, does very well in March. Either I double down at 10% or I sell it out: it’s that simple.
The easy trade is to admit defeat and sell it, then take the proceeds and time my next buy with honor and integrity. However, there is a distinct possibility that crude will trade higher next week, as the unwashed feed their leaders to the Kraken!
Other positions trading lower, such as BORN, FORM and BZ will not be sold, mainly because their respective earnings reports were better than expected. However, I will be selling out of ARO today. They just blew it.
As for new buys: I don’t see any reason to rush trades here. At the moment, my time is better served napping and/or fixating on destroying the great many enemies that plague me.
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Fly
I don’t quite get how oil is down and that it’s somehow related to the Japanese disaster. How so? That’s a stupid connection.
They had to shut down their refineries…they are the world’s 3rd largest importer of commodities.
Not all their refineries and then it would be hard to believe the rest of the world’s refineries can’t make up the difference.
Perhaps it fell for other reasons.
Because it had no business being up there in the first place????
heh, was looking to sell FXP $29 yesterday, never happened… so today I’m sitting on a goodly amount of it, and expect to take egregious profits.
Long sponges, mops and pails, and sump pumps.
Fly – check your first sentence … what does OPEN have to do with output?
LOL. Sleep deprivation. Pardon my sudden outburst of retardation.
OPEN = OPEC hence his price target on OPEN
i say double down. Crude will trade higher today before you even have time to eat a sam-ich.
Agreud.
Would you mind please dear Sir, travel in your time capsule and tell me if I will be screwed on Tuesday with PSUN?
since Aro blew it
Much appreciated
problem solved: APC is up.
I sold ARO: fucking pig.
This market reminds one of the ancient phrase from Cina, “death by a thousand cuts”. Happy lingchi portfoilo managers.
How about “Glory by a a thousand silver coins”? or “Prosperous like big fat man”?
PSUN??? Yes you are screwed. ARO – blew it and blew my MAR26 calls.
Your PPT seasonality feature could benefit from an intra-month draw down analysis. APC was down 9.2% from month open in March 2008 and 9.1% in March 2009 but recovered strongly by the end of the month in both years…
I have a deviation tool that tells me where a stock is compared to its projected monthly returm.
Done for the day.
Thanks SMH.
At least your OPEN play is back above 90. options are illiquid so homey don’t play OPEN.
apc has problems in Algeria; read the Financial Times article. Add possible bp gulf of mexico problems….the big two pure drilling plays ie production no refining, chemicals, gas stations are apa and apc…apa has the upper hand now because its problems in Egypt are small in comparison to apc problems/risks