Stocks that are Grossly Underperforming their Seasonal Average Returns for May

Using The PPT screener, I scanned for stocks that have 75% win rates in May, coupled with deviation from the mean of at least 10%. In layman’s terms, the following stocks usually outperform in May, but are woefully sucking cock now.

No. Ticker Seasonality – # Months TOTAL Seasonality – % Months UP Seasonality – Average Monthly Return Seasonality – Month Seasonality – % pts deviation from avg. return (current mont
1 MELA 6.00 83.33 21.19 May -32.51
2 AG 5.00 80.00 14.79 May -31.90
3 DCTH 9.00 77.78 10.26 May -27.66
4 GLDD 5.00 80.00 8.60 May -22.96
5 XEC 9.00 77.78 4.59 May -22.11
6 LQDT 6.00 83.33 20.21 May -20.11
7 MFW 16.00 81.25 6.25 May -18.05
8 UFI 21.00 76.19 8.47 May -16.74
9 OXY 29.00 75.86 4.16 May -16.33
10 SGU 14.00 78.57 8.58 May -14.53
11 RBA 14.00 78.57 2.69 May -14.18
12 EGBN 12.00 83.33 4.44 May -13.30
13 TACT 15.00 86.67 14.73 May -12.74
14 UEIC 19.00 78.95 6.29 May -11.52
15 VRNT 9.00 88.89 11.23 May -10.49
16 HNT 20.00 80.00 6.02 May -10.17
17 UHS 21.00 76.19 8.15 May -10.02

Aside from the asinine moves in silver, volatility has screeched to a halt. I find myself looking at my screen, wishing I was somewhere else. For the first time in a long time, I am speechless, with nothing of substance to offer. I am not selling or buying. I can’t stand arabic revolutions and I believe President Obama is Rosemary’s baby. There isn’t much more to say, other than “don’t short a dull market.”

Fuck you if you believe I am ripping off cliches and calling them my own. I invented it, prove otherwise else feel the force of a pinless hand grenade under your bullshit pleather chair from staples.

I haven’t shaved in about a week and I am carrying rambo knives again. I dare anyone of you little fast food eating bitches to fuck with me. I will cut your arms and legs off and toss your torso into the heart of Chinatown.

Speaking of which, Chinese lottery stocks are behaving bezerko. Did I spell that right? Is bezerko even a word?

The daily swings of the Chinese listed shares make me sick. I just want to drive to Long Island, find the CEO’s of these companies, and vomit on their faces—exorcist style. That’s all, moving on.

Despite the pullback in crack spreads, I hope you homos understand 321 spreads @ $23+ is still insanely lucrative. The refiners, without a doubt, are buys.

Unless you had insider information on GPS, this market is almost impossible to short. There is too much cash on corporate balance sheets to sleep well at night holdings shorts. Look at BKS. That company was having all sorts of problems, yet here we are now with a $17 buyout offer.

Barring calamity, I expect the mergers and acquisitions to continue, which in turn keeps me honest with regards to short positions: I don’t have any.

Instead of shorting, I’ve opted for the easy lifestyle of buying dips. My super aggressive posture in treasuries is not all that dangerous, considering the low beta of TLT. Essentially, holdings treasuries is just like holdings cash, with an outside chance of making 5%.

As the clock ticks, futures are improving. We will likely run higher today, led by oil and gas stocks. Nevertheless, I am still not buying.

Scores change all the time. These were the top 10 names, out of 4,000+, based on technical and fundamental factors.

1. TNAV
2. IPGP
3. WTW
4. TMK
5. MDCO
6. SDRL
7. TSU
8. FFG
9. CSH
10. EZPW

The dollar dumped out today, lending to strength in stocks. Despite downgrades in the tech sector, the market managed to hang in there, as the clown fuckers from LinkedIn “oohed and ahhh’d” everyone with their fantasm of an IPO. Personally, as opposed to some other guy writing here in the first person, I think LinkedIn is a retarded website, dedicated to socially inept nerds.

Moving along, precious metal stocks have sucked balls for weeks now. I am getting tired of holding AG/EXK. I should have sold them higher. Hindsight is 20/20.

All in all, today was a very, very boring day. Sometimes boring is good. It gives you time to think, as opposed to being flipped around in hot oil all day long.

Top picks: refiners

Not only am I not buying anything, I am not looking for ideas either. As my 35th birthday approaches, my risk appetite is not what it used to be. Back in the old days, I’d throw 8 balls at people while buying shares of LNKD with reckless abandon, at the fucking opening tick. Fast forward, I am here talking to you midgets with half of my assets in cash.

Crack spreads are lifting today, which means refiners should trade inverse to their profit margins. That makes lots of sense. It’s like a company announcing they sold the company for $35 per share and the stock trades to $20 on the news. I am not mad at the stock, for it did nothing to me. It’s just interesting to see how people respond to rational news. We are living through very irrational times.

By the way, QPSA is gapping higher off the LNKD fuck fest.

Valuations mean nothing when it comes to the science of “the $100 roll.” For those of you who do not know, this is in reference to the infallible art of buying a stock after it breaks the $100 plane for quick, cold, hard cash.

As you know, LNKD hit $120 within minutes of breaking $100.

Frothy.

I don’t know how or why it happened, but it did. It reminds me of the horrific job Goldman did with Thestreet.com back in the dot bomb days, gunning the shares to levels that could not be sustained. I am talking about the IPO debut of LinkedIn, ticker LNKD, up 95% from pricing that was already 30% above last week’s price. This is, without a doubt, unsustainable. And, to top that off, it will burn a lot of people buying in the after market. I do not know when LNKD will crash or how, only that it is inevitable.

At 525 times earnings, LNKD is trading with a market cap equal to Smuckers, Chipotle and Level 3 (the defense contractor).

Fuck it, I am buying more ZSL.

NOTE: Morgan was lead underwriter for LNKD.

Well it looks like the rally will continue this morning. I invite you to understand how this all works, using nothing more than a ruler, protractor and charts. Without a doubt, your charts are as good as Mexican citizenship. Computers tell robots what to buy and sell. People, for the most part, have ceded control of the stock market to titanium overlords.

Apparently the world is going to end on 5/21, which is interesting in the sense that I am busy that day. I must insist the apocalypse wait until after my event. On a side note, there was some fucked up floods in my area yesterday, due to excessive rain. At one point my car was in water up to the top of the wheels. I made it out just fine, but now my horn sounds like something I once heard at a circus. Are you familiar with the clown cars at the circus? Yeah, my Lexus now sounds like that—meep, meep. Very nice.

The bathroom was completed yesterday, but the contractor left a few leaky pipes under my vanity. He is, without a doubt, a classless act.

With regards to this market: let me drink my coffee first before figuring out my daily plan, fuck face. I have many things to do and a variety of tasks to complete this morning, which entails cutting a check to my son’s private school for 30k—a monstrosity of grandiosity.

It’s official. The PPT aka my time machine is nailing overbought/oversold ranges like Lenny Dykstra nails stupid. Since QE2, things have been a little abnormal in the market. However, as of late, traditional correlations are working again, effectively strengthening the wizardry of The PPT. Nevertheless, I am content being half in, due to my desire to wait things out. It’s important to remember there isn’t a reason  to rush trades. I have a very concentrated position in the refiners and silver now, it’s as if I was 120% long, thanks to their asinine volatility.

Believe me, I am not complaining. But since when has SILVER of all sectors been leadership? The daily percentage moves of these stocks are astounding. I fear the volatility of the precious will assassinate the good Senator one day. He must drink a lot of Pappy to soothe his nerves.

If I was buying today, without a doubt, I’d add to refiners, mainly WNR, CVI, ALJ and HOC.

UPDATE: PPT sub has some insight into SHOMP