The Hardest Market Ever

There are no easy trades. As a short seller, you must worry about unprecedented policy response from central banks. As a long, you must be wary of the insurmountable amount of debt, coupled with the lack of growth, plaguing this market. This market is especially hard because of record cash on corporate balance sheets.  This cash will be put to work, eventually, as is the case today with NETL and GLBL. If you shorted NETL on Friday, based around a market melt down thesis, you are bankrupted today.

The European trading session is dreadful. There are rumors that Socgen is going to bust and Moody’s will downgrade several big French banks. The CAC is down 4.6%. That is not a garden variety sell off.  Last night, the Heng Seng dropped by more than 800 points and our futures are looking pretty good, down just 16, with all things considered.

The reason why I went to 70% cash on Friday is because I am unwilling to risk client accounts on the premise that the Fed will save the day, at a time when German officials seem to be preparing for a Greek default. This is NOT priced into the market. Moreover, we’ve yet to see analyst revisions for S&P earnings. Right now they are estimating earnings of $95 for 2012. That’s fucking gorilla gay. At a minimum, earnings are coming down 10% to $80. At 13x, the S&P fair value is 1040. However, considering the massive headwinds ahead, a 10% earnings reduction is conservative. Judging by past recessions, earnings need to come down by 30%, putting fair value at 875. Or, this is all one big clusterfuck and the Fed starts QE3, pushing the market to 15,000.

I’ve never experienced such a hard tape and I’ve traded in all of the cool market meltdowns, sans 1987.

Nothing can be trusted when everyone is lying. As an investor or trader, it is your job to survive and preserve capital. There will be easier tapes. Until then, I will remain in a cash heavy position, trading quickly between overbought and oversold ranges.

UPDATE: I swapped out of my TZA for TNA

iBC blogger, Scott Bleier was one of the first to call it, back in June. At that time, most were still “Rick Ross’n”, long the market, banking coin on the dumbest stocks since 2000. I think it’s fair to say, the part is over and the sledding will be getting progressively harder, as the screws tighten around Europe’s gayest countries.

Going through my screens, so many insurance and economically sensitive names are in grave danger of becoming headline news. Remember, the insurance firms invest their premiums in equities. Speaking of equities, do not forget about the pension liabilities of large corporations who made overzealous projections. The deficits will choke off these stocks and suffocate investors, amidst chards of metal and copious amounts of black smoke.

Although it’s hard to initiate shorts here. I am fairly convinced the primary trend is lower. Therefore, if I do begin to short here, I will do so in increments. If the S&P is going to 850, there is a fuckload of money to be made on the short side, even from current levels. Do not feel like you missed out because you weren’t short GS at $150. This is “other side of the mountain” pin action, supported by a rapidly eroding economy, tends to spiral out of control lower, before normalcy. Things will always ebb and flow, as policy makers try to salvage the recovery via aggressive stimuli and/or quantitative easing. However, this has a distinct feeling that the horse has left the fucking barn and is now shitting all over the farmers house, kicking in windows and shit with his stupid horse shoes (I don’t like horses).

Inside The PPT, I put up a watchlist of names on my “to short list.” I will be updating it often and will alert members of my game plan as it progresses.

My thoughts about 9/11 are best represented by a post I did in 2008. I don’t mean to be insensitive to the people who lost loved ones on 9/11, but I cannot even turn on the television and attempt to watch another memorial for more than a second. This country is full of sensitive pussies, always wanting recognition for injured feelings. Our enemies laugh at us, as we allow the TSA to assault old ladies and young children at our airports. Since 9/11, this country has become one big fucking clusterfuck.

The wars we pursued were done half ass and we’ve bankrupted the world, through a myriad of retarded policies all aimed at making us “feel better.”

I was in front of the towers when the airplane struck and can vividly recall the panic, anger, and sadness that affected everyone on that day. For weeks after the attack, I could smell the stench of 9/11 from from my neighborhood in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn. It was horrible; but it’s time to move on.

After a decade of national paranoia and misguided wars that bankrupted the treasury, I believe the best way we can honor the memories of those who perished is to get our heads out of our collective asses and fix America.

We stabilized after plunging early. But the close was anything but good. Over the weekend, you should expect to hear more rumors and fear mongering, regarding all of the things that makes us scared. More so, I expect the market will dive lower, immediately, on Monday morning.

I have zero short exposure for managed accounts, so I am not exactly rooting for disaster. I sold out of most of my positions today, leaving WNR and GSVC in place. I am about 70% cash, mixed in with some treasuries, via TLT. I bought TLT due to my belief that money will seek safe harbor. Like it or not, treasuries are the most liquid and safest place to put money in the world.

The whole German-Greek drama is playing out exactly how my nightmares predicted. It is a worst case scenario with a little side order of depression wrapped in one.

It is possible the market goes up Monday and I end up making a grande old clusterfuck over nothing, even squandering coin via my current TZA calls. But that would make the market even more nonsensical and I can forgive myself for missing out on the bazaar.

On the eyes of Jupiter himself, we are this close (–*–) to a market rout of monumental proportions. If you are relying on President Dicksuckers plan, think again. The republicans would rather see the country burn down than help Obama by staving off a market panic. They will induce one. Bank on it.

I am sensing a major flush out into the bell. No one will want to stay long into a potential Greek default, early next week. I misjudged the timing on these events, thinking we had more time to boil the dog. Sadly, time has run out and the dog is readying to be served, apple in mouth. Of  course this is a mortifying visualization for you dog lovers, which is why I wrote it. The world is forced to eat dog sandwiches and no one wants them.

Are you going to have yours with olive oil or kraut?

Into the blood, I sold out of FL, TBT, TNA calls, TBT +calls, half of CLF, half of VMW. My current cash position is 60%. Also, going against my better judgement, I took the proceeds from my options trades gone bad and tossed them into TZA calls, short duration, at the money.

Even though I had these visions in my head, promoting Gorilla rallies and Rick Ross songs amidst celebratory executions, things didn’t go my way. I wish they would have; but the market sucks dick. So, instead of dying inside these coffins, I opted to raise cash and hedge my personal account.

Naturally, I will keep WNR and GSVC; but everything else is subject to sale. However, I will not be initiating short positions down at these levels. The risk-reward simply isn’t there, especially due to the lunatic style volatility. It is better, in my opinion, to wait this out and buy a crash, should we be so lucky enough to get one.

UPDATE: I bought 20,000 TLT
UPDATE II: I sold out of CLF and VMW, raising cash to 70%.

Germany said they are preparing to shield their banks from a Greek default. They are priming the markets for this eventuality, in my opinion. There is no way this news gets out without those “original buttfuckers” defaulting, sometime soon. I am rethinking my bounce scenario, as the fucking market dives lower. I hate making hard decisions on Friday’s, whilst the market drops like a stone. You know, it’s fucking tiring having to deal with +300 then -300 every other day. I fucking hate everyone in charge and would love to sell all stocks shorts with impunity. However, the next thing you know, the same fuckers will unveil some psychopath plan that will buoy the markets 500 in a day.

Nevertheless, I am likely to raise some cash today.

Fucking Europe is messing with my mojo again. The Chief economist of the ECB resigns and world markets plunge? Pardon me, but that guy was a fucktard and a hawk. Stark is out and someone with gorilla cocaine in his pocket will be in. This is not a reason to sell stocks. But then again, you fuckers sell stocks when someone sneezes sideways.

My options are getting battle axed to the head. However, my WNR is standing tall, despite deviants trying to chop it down. At the present, WNR represents 30% of my holdings and I intend to bash the fucking brains in of those who are betting against me. Believe me, it’s not paranoia when people are really out to get you.

The bottom line: today’s sell off is fraudulent. It is based around lies, purported by people wearing burlap hoodies and florescent green pants made from velcro.

Shares of OPEN plunged today on news that GOOG bought Zagat. Okay, let’s think about this for a second. Zagat makes their money through selling high brow reviews of restaurants. Often times, they annihilate eateries with scathing reviews. Now they want to get into the reservation business!? Pardon me, but they have a serious conflict of interest and cannot be taken as a serious competitor to OPEN, with GOOG or not.  How the fuck are they going to offer reservations to shitholes they pan? They would take payment from restaurants, and in return, their “analysts” would give rave reviews for client accounts just like S&P did during the housing bubble. There is no way Zagat moves in on Opentable’s territory. They are embedded as an industry leader and no one gives a fuck about Urbanspoon either.

Back to Zagat. As far as I am concerned, they’ve been irrelevant for three years now, ever since Yelp entered the market. Why would I want to read the review of just one asshole from Zagat, when I could read 100’s from regular people, without agendas, on Yelp for free?

Google is the new Microsoft, making all sorts of fucked up decisions. They are Johnny come lately to nearly every new business initiative and should stick to what they do best, search. Android is their X-Box and they should get ahead of the curve by issuing a large divided. Within two years, growth at GOOG will stagger and the share price will lag.

Whether OPEN is a buy here is anyone’s guess. It is certainly intriguing at these levels. However, I’d like to see some share price stability first.

Here is the train disaster better known as Obama’s jobs speech.

I have never heard Obama sound so fucking canned, ever. This speech was right off the teleprompter. Not one word came from his heart, which is why no one respects him. He isn’t leading because he does not have it in him to inspire people to act. After seeing this piece of offal mail in tonight’s speech, I am taking back my previous promise that I’d vote for him again if  I didn’t like the GOP candidate. PFFFFFFFFFFFFFuck that. I’d rather vote for Mr. Potato Head than give this guy the keys to the White House, so his Mother in-law walk around the historic mansion in her fucking pajamas, for another 4 years.

The speech was a bust. The world is stupid. Our only hope is Rick Ross’s beard right now. Nothing more. Nothing less.

UPDATE: Here is the speech.

We gave back about half of yesterday’s gains, coinciding with my daily performance. I have some exposure here, with 70% of my book long, 30% cash. The reversal was sharp, following my “GET ON THE FUCKING MAGIC CARPET” post. Obviously, investors, worldwide, saw that as the tipping point that caused a domino, a cascade of sorts, type of selling.

Bob Pisani is downplaying today’s sell off as “nothing more than a jog in the sewer.” However, I think today sucked dick.

Should 0bama propose a large ($400billy) stimulus plan, the bulls will rip the faces off the bears tomorrow, in hilarious clown-like fashion. On the other hand, should he go all teleprompter on us, we’re gonna fucking crash through the floor boards, wiping out my COCAINE, RICK ROSS, GORILLA account inside of 15 minutes.

Nevertheless, my big chips are riding WNR (no homo). Today’s 1.6% decline is nothing more than a pebble amongst crashing boulders. Let’s not get too dramatic over this situation. Instead, let’s  focus on how we can dispatch Alf to hades.

NOTE: For PPT members only, tomorrow will be the last day to get a free trial for 12631. If you’ve been on the fence, this is your last chance to get a free look. We do not give trials often and will not be doing another one for at least 6 months.