Fly Buy: VIT, HOGS

Taking a shot with a Chinese Burrito, in light of SEC action against Muddy Waters.

I bought 2,000 VIT, personal.

UPDATE: I bought 10,000 HOGS

Disclaimer: If you buy VIT because of this post, it will be revealed almost instantly that VIT is nothing more than a few guys sitting around playing Chinese checkers. And, you may lose money.

What the fuck is the world coming to when I have to wait for some Greek vote to determine my economic fate? If the vote goes bad, we plunge. Should the vote go well, we melt up. Please do not confuse trading catalysts with a long term thesis. My intention was never to own stocks indefinitely. As a matter of fact, I was somewhat sour on the markets, until this Greek shit presented an opportunity.

Yes, this is taking much longer than I had expected. By now, I intended to be cash rich, planning out my summer vacations. Instead, I am playing catch up, down 8% for the year.

I will have my inflation trade one way or another. Do not believe for a second global policy makers will all of a sudden find religion and let institutions fail. If you believe that, you are a fucking hairy gorilla driving a clown car. They are committed to this course of action. Therefore, as an investor, it is my duty to take the high probability play, not the logical one.

More later.

Former downloaders of the old app have been suffering for quite some time. You will suffer no more.

The Godly folks over at iBC, with the generous stewardship of the gentlemen from Cypress North, are pleased to present you with the greatest finance app in all of the world. At once, I insist that you download it and rank it five stars. Go to Grandma’s house and tell her to download to too, as an early Christmas present or something to do for leisure, as she goes out to pasture.

THE OFFICIAL iBANKCOIN APPLE APP

Back when Enron folded, I bought a shitload of bonds from other utilities and made a fortune. People assumed they were all frauds because of one bad customer. The situation with the ChinaScams is a little different because it’s in the Chinese culture to commit outright fraud, apparently. Perhaps it’s a page out of the Sun Tzu “Art of War” manuals when he tells his fellow Chinamen to “annoy and evade, then commit accounting fraud against white devils” when faced with an opportunity to “get rich as fuck.”

It’s also in human nature to overdo things, as is the case with many legitimate Chinese burritos right now. The problem lies in the jack in the box style fraud allegations published by websites like Citron and Muddy Waters. Over the long term, we will look back on this period of uncertainty as an opportunity to buy these companies at bargain basement values.

I’ve grouped names by BIG 4 auditor, in an effort to weed out the companies with fifth tier auditing representation. Here are the groupings and stocks that look interesting at face value.

PWC:

NTES, SNDA, PWRD, HMIN, LTON, SINA, NCTY, SOHU, CMED, CTRP, CYOU, CGA, HNP, ACH, PTR, MR, GSH, LFC, TOMO, CEA

DELOITTE:

SPRD, FMCN, WH, JRJC, KONG, CNTF, VIT, WX, NINE, EDU, EJ, SV, AMCN, NED, ASIA, ACTS, VISN, NTE, CISG, YZC

ERNST AND YOUNG:

GA, GRO, XIN, BIDU, CYD, SVA

KPMG:

CHA, SNP, CHL, NPD, GRRF, ZNH, YONG, FFHL, ATAI, SHI, GU, LONG, SCR, SSRX

Names of interest:

PWRD, SPRD, COGO, EJ, CMED, LFC, CEA, SHI, HMIN, SNDA, VIT, CISG, SCR

I am glad my personal is mostly in TNA at this point because picking individual names is like throwing darts. The PPT says just 62% of stocks are higher today. That’s hardly anything to rave about. We need a 90% day, with bears running in the streets, holding their brains in from spilling on the sidewalk below.

Until the euro-trash get their bailouts in order, the market will trade without conviction.

Over the past 3 days, the market has made gains, yet I am hardly making any money. I imagine many of you have the same issues. In the past, tech and commodities would run hard on bounces. Now it’s hit or miss with commodities and tech is dead.

If anything, gold and silver offer neutrality in this whole mess. Both bearshitter and bullshitters like the defacto reserve currency status of precious metals. One thing is for certain: this is not a market that I want to short, knowing the history of our policy makers. They are bailouts makers. Don’t bet against that, else you will be in the streets soon trying to hold your frontal lobe from falling on the dirty sidewalk below.

Exclusive.

I love the doom and gloomers out there, calling for default in Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, even here in the U.S. They mask their mental illness with claims that by “taking the medicine now” we are saving our grandchildren later. Are you people fucking nuts? What you are asking for is  voluntary acceptance of a great depression. By chance, have any of you dicksuckers lived through a great depression and failure of your domestic currency?

I did’t think so.

Say what you want about moral hazard, but I’d rather give myself a fighting chance to fix things later, than guarantee my death now. Who knows, perhaps in 10 years some sort of renewable energy will be main streamed that will help spur another boom, allowing us to grow out of our problems. By asking Greece to default is equal to letting Lehman fail. Now, we all know after Lehman failed, we had to bail out AIG. If Greece is Lehman, Spain is AIG. We are going to have to deal with these problems right now, else all of the QE money, TARP funds and stimulus that has been injected into the system will be null and void, as we will descend back to the lows of 2008.

Now if you were a policy maker, does that sound like a reasonable course of action?

The problem with Greece is that it’s full of Greeks. Even if they approve austerity, their government may get voted out and then we will have to start the ham and egging process all over again.

Early going, futures are improving, which is a good sign. Like the Analyst Bomber said, ” if the stocks stop going down in the face of bad news, they are probably done going down.” I agree 100%. Should the market stop trading down in the face of bad news, we will have a tradable bottom. The situation is very fluid, as news flow dictates the money flow.

I will go into more detail tomorrow, regarding the ineptitude of the IMF and ECB. In summary, the Europeans are displaying unparalleled ignorance with regards to systemic risk. Truly, they are ostriches with their heads in the sand, oblivious to the bond markets and how willing and able risk adverse managers are going to punish them for inaction.

Not doing something this weekend was a huge mistake. This is Lehman part 2, but worse. Whole countries will fail and all of the work central banks have done over the past three years will be for nothing.

There is no fix, only fail or kick the can down the road. I am caught long because I didn’t think they were so stupid, as to ignore the harsh lessons of recent history.

As a Father, I empathize with my fellow dedicated Dad’s out there, who work hard to provide a safe, clean, and enriched environment for our children. To me, living life with the sole purpose of having fun or indulging in hedonistic adventures is pointless. When you are young, you should be planning for the future, instead of “living in the now”, as many idiots like to profess.

My children are everything for me. I don’t vacation without them and the wife and I rarely go out without their energy filled presence. They will not be kids forever and my wife and I will have plenty of time later to enjoy self-absorbed vacations without them, when they are adults.

My personal report card on how my life is progressing does not have a category for wealth, stock market success or personal possessions, even though I endeavor to succeed at all times. Get back to me in 20 years, after seeing how my children turned out, and that will be the only thing I will hang my hat on, determining personal success or failure.

Happy, Intelligent and Productive.

That’s it. I am wrapping it up. I sold out of two thorns in my side, OPEN and ALJ. With some of the proceeds, I bought AG. I’ve traded AG 4 times, each with great success. Personally, I took profits in TNAV and bought EXK.

Essentially, if the Greeks get bailed out, gold/silver goes up. If they don’t get bailed out and everyone panics, gold/silver goes up. Barring some sort of crash event, it seems like a win-win, especially at these levels.

Right now I have one stock down more than 10%, ATPG. I am down 11.5% on the name and have it on a tight leash. Second to ATPG is CLF, down 7.5%. I sold OPEN because it was down 10%. Basically, that’s my proverbial line in the sand, in order to keep things from spiraling out of control. So you know, I am down 5.5% in my WNR position and I am up 1% in my OXY.

Over in my personal, I am down 4% in TNA.

Year to date, my losses are about 8%. I am going to lend myself some room to maneuver here, trying to stay above -10%. Should I dip below -10%, I will most likely make wholesale changes.