That’s it. I am wrapping it up. I sold out of two thorns in my side, OPEN and ALJ. With some of the proceeds, I bought AG. I’ve traded AG 4 times, each with great success. Personally, I took profits in TNAV and bought EXK.
Essentially, if the Greeks get bailed out, gold/silver goes up. If they don’t get bailed out and everyone panics, gold/silver goes up. Barring some sort of crash event, it seems like a win-win, especially at these levels.
Right now I have one stock down more than 10%, ATPG. I am down 11.5% on the name and have it on a tight leash. Second to ATPG is CLF, down 7.5%. I sold OPEN because it was down 10%. Basically, that’s my proverbial line in the sand, in order to keep things from spiraling out of control. So you know, I am down 5.5% in my WNR position and I am up 1% in my OXY.
Over in my personal, I am down 4% in TNA.
Year to date, my losses are about 8%. I am going to lend myself some room to maneuver here, trying to stay above -10%. Should I dip below -10%, I will most likely make wholesale changes.
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I, for one, appreciate the total honesty of your posts.
Completely agree, I’ve learned so much just from you sharing your thought process. Mad respect.
Your a good soul Fly…. D
Added a bit of GOOG and CSCO.
GOOG looks yummy at $450. ORCL may put a billion $ dent and will create buying opp.
Short crude oil
Greeks get bailed out, weak euro strong dollar, if they don’t get bailed out global recession crude goes down.
The Clam can’t QE until they break the back of crude.
Euro is up today, based on a Greek bailout. You cant have it both ways.
Greek bailout = ECB printing = weaker euro. correct?
No, they might allocate fund from reserves, which would keep the euro neutral.
Yes, and the funds will come from the US
Balance that against the threat of unrest in a major oil producer nation (take your pick which one). Countries can’t get bailed out forever, but if they try expanding bailouts by printing more funny-money, sooner or later, starvlings will start blowing shit up and bringing down governments. Not only does inflation boost oil price, but unrest in producer nations does too. Strong dollar from bailouts? Maybe in the short term, but check and see who insures the banks who do the bailouts. I’ll give you a hint. They like killing Gaddafi’s kids.
ALL IN with EXK.
Gold and silver are about to puke. EXK will be in the 6’s next week, I’ll be a buyer in the 5 buck or so range.
This is a pretty weak Greek bailout bounce.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greece-pass-austerity-plan-changes
OPEX.
I don’t expect much at the close today.
Wrapping it up myself. Good analysis Fly. I pretty much see it the same way.
Happy Fathers Day to all the pops out there.
First!
It’s been a Michigan J. Frog week for the bulls no doubt..
Unfamiliar with the term….Michigan J. Frog…………?
Great Post on Marketwatch missed this:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-bulls-are-set-up-for-a-fall-in-june-2011-06-01
This market is all fizzle.
Grizzle …
Fo shizzle.
My nizzle
finished up 1.5% today
It’s not the end of the year…
Many gains still to be had.
this market is absolutely nuts.
The market is like me…
I once walked in the office wearing ziplock bags for shorts… The doctor said “Clearly, I can see your nuts”
Businesses should be prohibited from being bought out for the first 5 years since their inception. They then should enter a draft where other businesses can sign a temporary contract where the new businesses resources will be used for a set amount of years.
It would be just like the NFL draft only with businesses.
By only signing temporary contracts with businesses, it would prevent the destruction of the company and the company would still be able to demand a trade and such. During the contract the business will be taught how to effectively use it’s resources to compete on behalf of the company. Then after the contract there can be “free agency” just like the NFL too. Some companies might take less to be able to receive the guidance from a winning team manager that gets the best out of the companies. Overall it would be better for society and entertaining! Then the superbowl can be end of the year earnings of each business along with an “american idol” style voting system, and you can announce a winner and have confetti and all that with post game interviews,etc.
or is that too idealistic and insane?
Capital is mobile. Unless you do it worldwide, which is impossible, it won’t work.
Let me explain the free market system. Business is encouraged to risk it all for private gain with the understanding that the government will cover any losses. If providing free insurance requires federal deficit spending, so be it. I like this system and we should keep it, with a few minor tweaks, like complete elimination of taxation and free money for everyone no matter how much we need to run up the government’s tab.
You do have some good ideas about american idol and confetti though. In the words of Marissa Mayer, I’d like to see a more robust brainstorming next time!
Great tune.
“Essentially, if the Greeks get bailed out, gold/silver goes up. If they don’t get bailed out and everyone panics, gold/silver goes up.”
I couldn’t have said it better myself.
or the greeks get bailed out, the euro goes down the dollar goes up, gold bought w/ dollars goes down gold bought w/ euros goes up, just sayin
Or The Clam is Wishy Washy at his press conf again and I get to drink more Clam Juice next week.
“euro goes down the dollar goes up”
The dollar goes up relative to what? If to the euro, you’re getting circular.
The dollar index is measured against a basket of currencies, 58.6% of which is the Euro.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index
Exactly.
Problem solved.
Wowie
earnings will tighten this market up. for how long i do not know. still waiting to buy. in the mean time, i lift heavy weights in the yard and sweat it out in the sun. water hose off the body in between reps. Allman bros blues over the loudspeakers. Turkish figs. argue with these guys whenever possible with side bets.
What’s this, no rap to celebrate Father’s Day???
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DN_eZHxa8Q
Prepare for another hit. The age of bull is over. The Time of Hugh Hendry has come.
What’s your suggestion Hugh? By the way, please more videos, those were great.
7% on a Greek 2 year – they were getting a deal!
I only ever have one suggestion: leveraged long US treasuries. Oh baby, getsome deflation.
This market is tough.. It’s killing the retail investor and the pros. And stressing me the F… out. Have a good weekend!
I can remember the old man (tan as shit Italian letter carrier) playing “Tea for the Tillerman” all the time as I was growing up. Good stuff.
Still not shooked out.
Fuckers.
Fly talk shits to everybody when he is making money and you guys talk shit about him, Fly lose money and talks nice to you guys and you guys talk nice back lol. Gotta love the power of the Fly!!
Agree. Sort of. In another venue FLY could properly change his name to Shepherd given the way his sheep follow and his lambs are sacrificed.
The powers that be want lower commodity prices, and typically the powers that be get what they want.
they want lower prices so they can rent more warehouses to store the shit , and manipulate the price of pop cans, and car fenders.
The powers that be want inflation.
save america http://www.ngvamerica.org/index.html
U’re in the minority on this blog.. .
Fly – what do you think about RIM at these levels?
Without cash, paying about 11B for the business.
I think you should buy it – $11B is cheap and you could put the whole thing on your BofA Visa.
I disagree, Silver is more of a risk indcator right now, risk on, silver goes up…
More Chinese fraud, is every damn company there a bloody shim sham scam.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/game-over-sino-forest-after-globe-and-mail-investigation-confirms-company-sham
The month of June is historically a bad one but July and to a lesser extent August are positive months. Feel better? I hold some TNA and TVIX but I am still mostly long but building cash.
Any guesses on how this will affect the price of silver?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/trading-over-counter-gold-and-silver-be-illegal-beginning-july-15
Massive sell off followed by massive buying of physical?
It says “on margin”. You should still be able to buy/sell coins and bars for a while.
“for a while” !!!!
Why wait for the triangles to resolve. I see your future and it looks like RIMM. FU
BTW my ex was from Romania. Beautiful country but every big city there is a industrial 3rd world looking shit-hole. Of course my ex was (and still is) mf smoking hot. Papa
Wednesday…Will my little dollar get bitched slapped when the Clam wants to reinvest, or is that news already priced in?
It de(e)pends on your position, how long you will hold your c(u)nten(s)ion. Work that shi’ silk biatch.
thanks, apropos…
some things change…others do not…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cpX1ZjuaiA&feature=related
You repeatedly use “basically” and “essentially” in your posts without necessity. I am losing faith in your legitimacy as a blogger. Please fire your writers.
Bold, and appropriate, for you to point out blatant cases of writers’ indolence.
INGRATES
Remember to think of all the men who’ve had a positive influence on your life today.
…Happy Father’s Day…
The Greeks are getting bailed out. How does a Monkey play this on Monday?
Not too fast about that bail out…They are making them wait.