Trading with The Fly

Indeud

Now or Never

Thu Dec 22, 2011 8:56am EST 19

Let’s face some untenable facts here. The economic data isn’t that bad. Granted, warnings out of ORCL, SCHN and JOY do not make me feel warm and fuzzy. But it’s not the graveyard shit that so many doom and gloomers have been prophesying. Enjoy the respite from now until New Years eve, for it will not last.

Merkel is coming back from here Hitleresque vacation on January 5th and the world will brace itself for a very big Italian bond auction in late January. Similar to late 2007, I expect the market will rally into year end, then get stomped out in early 2012. The storm is brewing and it’s all going to be coming to a head in 2012. Get ready for it.

Having said that, I am interested in squeezing out some upside at the great expense of the bears, right now. I own a wide array of stocks, right or wrong, that are very depressed and should be trading higher soon. I don’t know if you have noticed or not, but I have not bought anything new lately. I’ve decided to stick with the few names that I own, average down in them, then cut and run.

If I were to add new names to the mix, I’d strongly consider SUSS and TEA. Both stocks are on sale and offer great growth prospects. Also, I really like GSVC down in the $13’s. Remember, both ZNGA and GRPN represented hardly anything in their VC fund. GSV is all about Facebook and Twitter, with more than 30% of their assets tied up in the two companies. Ask yourself, do you think FBOOK and TWTR will garner much excitement upon IPO’ing? These two companies will be coveted by every investment bank in the world. They will receive the red carpet treatment and, by extension, GSVC will benefit.

As for warm winters and DECK boots: 2009 and 2010 were two of the warmest winters on record here in the US. Check the fucking sales growth for DECK during those dreadfully warm winters and ask yourself “do women give a shit about weather?”

Honey badger.

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To Hell with Norway’s Dwindling Butter Supply!

Wed Dec 21, 2011 8:56pm EST 50

This is one of the funniest videos ever created on Youtube.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ub0GzU56YMA&list=FLEIciWvVLqrS9jdkxpjKL9A&index=1&feature=plpp_video 603 500]

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Boldly Not Giving a Shit

Wed Dec 21, 2011 3:14pm EST 41

My largest positions are MDR, DECK and LULU. It’s been that way for a few weeks now and I do not reckon to change that. As a matter of fact, I reckon my luck is about to turn for the better, by a factor of 1 million.

I do not wish ill upon your explorations, only that you do worse than me.

My TZA position will be formed in tranches. Having just 33% of my money invested in this separate account (this is the last time I will speak of this out of respect for The PPT members), I want TZA to trade lower so that I may buy more.

The difference between you, and a person such as myself, is that you crave and clamour for the annihilation of the market, only because of your station in life. It’s the poisons in your brain that make you so miserable. Dark smoke and clouds of metal fill your dreams. You awake to dramatic Jeff Beal and Hans Zimmer soundtracks. You are quite the eager one to praise the mental illnesses of Chris Whalen, Jim Chanos and Rick Santelli, as you declare them to be “truthers”–when in fact they are nothing more than comic book villains, fucktards, easily dismissed while splashing the contents of a singular glass of brandy into the fire place for sport.

I am attempting to fine tune my art of investing like a Swiss time piece. You, on the other hand, are throwing shit against the wall because that’s how you are hard wired. This is my life’s work. There is much to be done and my skills are bound to increase, exponentially, as my experiments continue. I would not partake in such work if I didn’t know there was a secret, a holy grail of sorts, to successfully automating trades. Please do not dare compare the shit you call algorithms or screeners (think Trade-ideas) to what we are doing here at iBC.

In summary, today was not such a bad day after all. My stocks rallied back, as asshole dip buyers reasserted themselves into the fold. I am looking forward to a “fuck you, you’re dead” rally tomorrow. However, at the same token, I would not be surprised if dove onto beach rocks either.

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Fly Buy: GSVC

Wed Dec 21, 2011 12:41pm EST 11

Honey badger.

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Dear Santa

Wed Dec 21, 2011 10:30am EST 37

Despite the fucking ORCL and other tech names are receiving today, I am not scared. Even though my DECK is being manslaughtered by some metrosexual analyst with an ax to grind, I am not selling.

I sold out of EXK because my urinal shadows do not like silver here. I sold out of TNA because of SHOMP. My TZA position is very small when compared to my holdings. It is more of a statement than a position. In other words, I am still long, albeit not happy, into a bit of weakness here.

Truth be told, I have no business being so long–going into X-Mas. I had my annual highs just two weeks ago, with ample cash and not a care in the world. I fucking bought stocks again, like the crack-pipe smoking asshole that I am, and ruined everything. Now I am relying on Hanukkah Harry, Santa Claus and fucking Kwanza Kwame to bail me the fuck out, like some sort of destitute vagrant panhandling for beer money on 42nd street.

There is no difference between the beggar and myself, at this juncture in time. The scale is much different, where I am looking for millions, the beggar only wants $3. But the philosophy is the same. This really pisses me the fuck off.

Hold on a sec, let me offer a prayer, since I am sooo fucking religious.

Dear Santa,

Please kill everyone who gets in my way. I am a spoiled brat bastard who spends money like a hooker and would like to make a few million in stocks, before the end of the year. If at all possible, can you make the Federal Reserve do something or force Germany, through water boarding or other benign forms of torture, to step the fuck up and create more money, in order to fuck the poor and help me out? After all, I really want to buy a few more cars, new house and I’ve been eyeballing this $90,000 Patek watch.

Thanks in advance,

Spoiled fucking brat, Le Fly

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Fly Buy: TZA

Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:59am EST 3

I bought a small amount of TZA.

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Fly Sell: TNA, EXK

Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:58am EST 0

I sold both TNA and EXK.

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All Hands on DECK

Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:13am EST 15

Yesterday a gentleman analyst at Credit Suisse, Christian Buss, alluded to “accelerating stock-outs” at Nordstrom and Uggsaustralia websites. Moreover, he said this is likely to deter from discounting, which inevitably will help DECK margins. Very nice. Very clean.

My friends and I drank aged brandy and were delighted over this report, whilst throwing fresh logs on the fire.

IN WALKS FUCK FACE.

This Morning, once SUPER-BULL, now MEGA-BEAR-SHITTER on DECK, Sam Poser from Stern Agee, visited my fireplace and pissed all over it, saying:

There still appear to be plenty of UGGs around as Hanukkah and Christmas are upon us

n Women’s Classic inventory is in good shape and slippers get a mixed review: After reviewing the uggaustralia.com and the norsdtrom.com websites yesterday afternoon, we conclude that an ample supply of UGGs is available. We counted all regular price boots and slippers on each site. Given the warm weather, we expect that there may be some 1Q12 cancelations, and fall 2012 orders will likely reflect 2010 rather than 2011, due to strong but not strong enough sales and concerns for the future due to warm weather, modestly increased domestic distribution, and pending price increases that may take some UGG styles from affordable luxury to luxury.

n Nordstrom still in position to sell boots: On the Nordstrom (JWN-$48.87-Buy) site, slippers are 52% in stock, Classic and classic derivatives are 71% in stock, basic fashion boots are 68% in stock, cold weather boots are 63% in stock, and better fashion boots are 75% in stock. Only 8 of the 29 slippers are 100% in stock and 16 are less than 50% in stock. 8 of the 30 classic styles are 100% in stock, and 23 of the 30 are over 50% in stock, with most of the stock-outs in sizes 10 and 11. Of the 37 fashion boots, 9 are 100% in stock and 24 are over 50% in stock, and once again most of the stock-outs are in fringe sizes. The cold weather boots have 10 of 12 styles with over 50% in stock. The remaining styles only have small sizes left. All of the better fashion boots have over 67% in stock, and sizes missing are only small and large sizes; the core sizes are in stock.

n UGG’s website has oodles of boots and slippers: On the Ugg Australia website, slippers are 75% in stock, Classics are 63% in stock, fashion boots are 85% in stock, cold weather boots are 88% in stock, and better fashion boots are 96% in stock. Of the 61 slippers on line, 36 are fully in stock, and 47 styles are over 50% in stock. Of the 59 Classic boots, 33 have no stock-outs, and 42 are greater than 50% in stock. Of the 72 fashion boots 47 are completely in stock, and only 10 are under 50% in stock. 12 of the 29 cold weather boots are totally in stock and none are below 50%. Most missing sizes are fringe sizes. Sizes 7 through 9 in cold weather boots are 89% to 100% in stock.

n No lack of product: While we have no hard data as to the in-stock position at this time last year, we contend, based on our channel checks, that there was much less available than there is today. We have been concerned that if UGG supply meets demand, an inflection point would be at hand. We appear to be there, and again expect retailers to be cautious as they plan 2H12. The UGG business will still be large, but orders will likely be flat to down year over year in the back half of ’12.

To be clear, this man had a $130 price target on DECK up until last week. Then, because of the warm weather, he said “nah, I don’t like DECK anymore” and cut his target by $58 to $72. One of three things are happening here, in my opinion.

Here are the possibilities.

1. Sam has some inside information.

2. Sam is trying to hit a grand slam, currying media attention via outrageous calls.

3. Sam is a fucktard and is wrong about DECK, just like he was wrong on SKX @ $40 and CROX @ $30.

Well, we will find out soon enough, when DECK reports earnings in February. My money is on the gentleman from Credit Suisse.

In other news, European markets are trending lower, after big overnight gains. The reason for the profit taking is simple. The fucking ECB just lent a record $645 billion to 523 European banks (3 year), well above expectations. In other words, the ECB just saved the European banking system. Of the 523 banks, 12 of them were drunken Irish.

People need to digest this shit before throwing bowling balls at bearshitters again. Bond yields are little changed and all in all, despite lower S&P futures, things aren’t so bad. Following yesterday’s melt-up, today will be a win if the S&P can trade flat to down 0.5%. Should we start to trade up, well then, the bears’ dicks are going to be cut off in extremely short and egregious order.

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The Oracle Will Not Save You

Tue Dec 20, 2011 9:53pm EST 32

I don’t care about the European crisis or a US slowdown. All I want to know is where the fuck are stocks going tomorrow?

I am going to hammer a fucking rail spike through your fucking craniums tomorrow, stealing presents from under Zerohedge’s tree. I’m long the same level for about two weeks now, 75% equities/25% cash. I haven’t spent the cash because, frankly, I was a pussy. But now the worm is turning and it’s for no good reason.

Rallies on faux news gets me nervous. However, monstrous melt ups for no reason other than to ignorantly paint tapes and manipulate prices higher is dangerous, for the shorts that is. You do not stand a chance against the tidal wave of pension and hedge fund dollars about to flood the market for one last hoorah!

In exactly one year from today, based upon the prophecies of the Mayans, the world will end. If we are in the 9th inning of civilization, who gives a fuck about Italian bond yields and Greek protestors?

PFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF.

Get your RICK ROSS on and feed that fucking gorilla a kilo of uncut cocaine. One for the road.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X99NHkybwbQ

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SANTA STRIKES BACK!

Tue Dec 20, 2011 3:26pm EST 37

Almost broken, Santa Claus regained the initiative today, hammering out the shorts, like pizza dough, into submission on no news. You can make believe there was news; but in reality, this was Santa Claus in action. May the brains pasted on the bottom of the blades of his sleigh stain the pavement in memory of those who needed to be sacrificed today.

My largest positions shot higher today; but I need more. While it’s true, The PPT‘s “3 tier system” ended up a winner again, long TNA from $42-43 with 1/3rd of my capital invested. I need more.

Here are some levels for you to become familiar with, as it pertains to the belligerency of my insults.

LULU @ $50

DECK @ $104

WNR @ $17

RBCN $10

EXK @$10.25

DVR @$2.45

GMXR @ $1.65

MDR @ $11

GSVC @$20

Those are not my costs for the aforementioned stocks, but price targets. We all have numbers running through our minds, some more than others. While I calculate digits in my head at a highly proficient rate, you eat “cheeze” doodles like a fucking dog.

At any rate, the rally was plentiful and today’s gains helped. Nevertheless, I remain strapped into my car made from dynamite sticks, pedal to the metal, heading straight for the fucking sun.