It’s reasonable and rational to conclude the market has bottomed for 2022, based upon seasonal factors. Below are the annual returns for QQQ during November, courtesy of Stocklabs.
One might easily surmise the cranned berried sauce platters of gravy’d turkey and yams might place ze bears in a state of quietude, satiated with the blood and flesh he has ingested throughout 2022. But you’d be unwise you let your guard down this Thanksgiving.
I readily admit markets look constructive here and the idea of a classic November rally is alluring. But then I remind myself how over it really is and how we now have troops teeming at the Ukrainian border, salivating for blood sacrifice.
US COMBAT DEPLOYMENT ON UKRAINIAN BORDERpic.twitter.com/lcWouPW3Ui
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 22, 2022
I remind myself that Japan is paying 40% more for imports this year and their currency is absolute trash, 37 yr lows. The UK is working on their 3rd PM in the past month and the United Steaks ls led by a cadaver.
Natural Gas prices have collapsed since Russia anointed Turkey ambassador of gas to Europe and oil prices have been suppressed thanks to Bidless Biden’s efforts to save the empire from dissolution.
There are many trials and tribulations ahead and dare I suggest we have yet to see capitulation. What does it look like?
Well, for starters the permanent bull class of investor would be extinct, only leaving behind their bones for us to construct in museums for the world to gaze at in wonder. “Here are the skeletal remains of a once foolish species, the PERMANENT BULL — got wiped the fuck out CLEAN during the great fires of 2022.”
Secondly, we require a magnificent display of panic, VIX to $100 and CNBC’s transmission interrupted by the Emergency Broadcast system to announce missiles are inbound to DC.
Lastly, a total collapse of stocks like AAPL and AMZN — the last vestiges of Pax Americana.
After all of that happens, then we might be intrigued by some bargains out there.
Have a pleasant weekend.
NOTE: If curious about what capitulation looks like in literary terms, I wrote two books about my experience during the dot com blow up. Enjoy.If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter