Mon May 20, 2013 7:32am ESTComments Off on Three Days of Overlapping Value
Coming into the week, we have three days of overlapping value to use as bias for direction into the week. Last week featured a very similar overlap of value and seeing acceptance of price above the big value gave us conviction to the long side all week.
The same weight should be given to the three days of overlapping value this week.
The overnight session has been flat thus far. The only notable development was the rejection of Friday’s HVN on the upper volume node at 1664.50 which I consider the only line in the sand stopping more upside.
Here’s a markup of the other important S&P levels:
Sometimes you have to let a trade effervesce, gently bubbling higher. Such is the case with LOCK, apparently.
Other times you give the trade room, and only offer it your left hand. This is how I’m getting back into my good friend RGLD, our favorite Senator’s mining situation.
Then there’s downright degeneracy, demanding nothing but instant gratification because well, you’re a degenerate and want it NOW! If you bought SCTY this afternoon and didn’t have this mentality, I tip my hat to you and your courage.
Let me be frank for a moment. This has been a fantastic, albeit slightly frantic, day for the bulls and America in general. These markets are enfuego, IN MAY. I really hope portfolio managers took their stupid axiom to heart and missed all this capital appreciation. For I hate them, mostly.
Raul worked in the financial services industry once. Let’s just say there wasn’t enough trading, if you know what I mean.
My happy place is buying and selling things, all the time, like one of those Pawn Star folk.
Into the weekend, my cash is down to 30 percent.
I’ve put a shit ton of longs on, more than I can properly manage. This weekend, I’ll be ranking these and consolidating them down. But as it stands, here’s the look, by size:
No future trades to report this morning as my attention has been on equities. They S&P is trading inside yesterday’s value and has shown directional conviction to the upside. Keep in mind however, that there’s still a gap trade open—which would see price back down to 1649.50.
I had to get a scale off on JRCC this morning after their debt restructuring announcement sent shares soaring over 20 percent higher in early trade. Since then, I’ve been monitoring a few names, looking for upside action.
Top pick going into lunch: $LOCK
I have The PPT feeding me lots of good looking charts, I’m working to boil it down to one or two.
Fri May 17, 2013 7:28am ESTComments Off on The Excess Low and What It Means Today
The overnight session has seen the S&P index as much as seven handles higher from yesterday’s close, putting in two rather methodic rotations higher. The resulting volume profile is wide however, which paints a more neutral picture of the session. We may need to see more profile development before we’re able to build any context from it.
The key feature of yesterday’s profile is when price “fell out of bed”. A liquidation took place at 2pm and price tumbled 9 handles lower before recovering off the lows by about 33 percent. The resulting action left behind an excess low at 1647.50. Someone, aka they, found the price such a bargain, they snatched them up with aggressive reactive action. Should we trade back down to this level and the market doesn’t receive the same aggressive reaction from the buyers, we can take it as a sign that something has changed, and position for lower trade.
I’ve highlighted this excess low and other key levels in the volume profile look, enjoy:
The market is digesting the gains bulls achieved earlier in the week with a consolidation today. There isn’t a doubt in my mind that we’re overbought here. But we simply haven’t seen any high volume distribution. It’s just one rotation after another from extended stocks to the ones setup below.
I’m putting money in several names, looking to catch the next rotation. I’ll be honest. I don’t know where it will be. My two primary rotational plays are LOCK and JRCC. Lock is up over 10 percent this month but hasn’t pumped alongside the overall market this week. JRCC is coal, so who the hell knows if it will catch a solid bid?
HAIN keeps marching ahead and I’m giving it space, but may take another scale soon. I can’t resist booking gains. The downside is I wind up with little fragments of runners in my books. Current runner fragments include FB ANGI GS and RGR. I’m considering adding to FB and RGR, but not ANGI up here.
My long term plays are AAPL AWK CREE and SAM.
My dog today is JOEZ jeans. It needs to shape up soon or I’m cutting.
Thu May 16, 2013 11:28am ESTComments Off on Morning Future’s Report
The morning session is balanced, and somewhat choppy. The rotations don’t seem to make much progress and I got caught up in the noise with several trades.
I went 5/14 giving me a win rate of 36 percent. My best trade was long into the 11 am hour catching a drift higher that earned 2.5 handles. My two worse trade were chop along the VPOC each carving out 1.75 handles on two units. Net-net I was down on the session.
My best position was shorting into the 10am Philadelphia fed number. The market was bid up into the number, ran some stops and then reversed lower. I covered far too soon, taking only 1 handle out of the 7 handle move.
Biggest area for improvement is waiting for a bit more conviction before trading from the middle of the value area to the outside.
Thu May 16, 2013 7:32am ESTComments Off on Quiet Overnight and the Interesting Price Level Left Behind
Another quiet overnight session, forming the familiar bell-curve within yesterday’s fat value area. This tells me there haven’t been any significant developments overnight.
The ten handles swing lower seen during the ES afternoon suggests emotions are building up in this tape, but hardly suggests complacency. When price knifed lower to the scene of the early breakout, it was met as a huge buying opportunity. The low volume node left behind at 1648.75-1648.50 is an interesting byproduct of that swift rejection. Should the bulls not defend this level in the same manner on a retest, I’ll take it as a cue that sentiment has shifted.
Early on, perhaps even premarket, I’ll be looking for a test of the 1648.50 level mentioned above.
Wed May 15, 2013 11:35am ESTComments Off on Let Us See The Afternoon
I had a solid session in the $ES_F. I was working a long trade inside the VPOC. On my first trade, I earned 1.5 handles on one piece and then scratched the net +2 ticks. Then I re-entered and earned 1.5 points on my first piece and 5 handles on the second. Nice little victories to have, all according to plan.
I jostled my portfolio up a bit, selling another 1/3 of my ANGI after the housing stats. The housing numbers came out in-line/better than expected and ANGI had a nice morning move. When it didn’t pump alongside the overall market, I took the cue to scale some profits.
I also started buying JRCC. There’s a lot of good guys in this trade, for various reasons. I’m in it for the little 5-10 percent, you know that. That being said, I want to see this trade get moving soon as it hasn’t quite turned the momo corner. Developing…
Look at Ford, wow, good American breakout. I’m taking a step back this afternoon and smelling the roses. I want to see some afternoon action before deciding to buy more stocks or sell down what I have.
Wed May 15, 2013 7:36am ESTComments Off on Watching how the Market Digests the Big Move
One of the key elements to yesterday’s trend that should have kept me from fading early on was the opening type. Yesterday we saw a classic opening drive: the market opened above the value area highs spanning four days and didn’t look back.
Today we’re seeing a more balanced session overnight, with the action taking place within yesterday’s upper volume distribution. I’ll be keying off the price action inside the upper boundaries of the P-shaped profile. The single prints below can get slippery, should price trade back down into them, I’m playing for a swift move through them; a crushing blow to the bulls.
But mostly, I’m looking for digestion of yesterday’s move. Should price consolidate within this upper distribution, we could see individual stocks fare very well.
Tue May 14, 2013 4:35pm ESTComments Off on The Trade Today Was To Buy the Open and Hold Onto Your Pants
Today was really interesting as a student of the markets. Believe me when I tell you, there’s gold in trading the S&P futures at the open. I just can’t seem to harness it yet. I have streams of data over all types of markets supporting such a thesis.
I grabbed onto the $ES_F not long after the open. I got an ace entry just above 1630. As is par the course, I got my first scale at 1.25 points profit. I scale at 1.25 because my setup achieves this goal with a 70 percent win rate. Then I let the other units run. In theory. Currently I’m trading a two lot. I’ll keep trading this tiny position until I get the type of profitability my statistics suggest, and then my goal is to work up to trading 50 lots like the best.
Anyhow, I get the 1.25 and there’s no sign of sellers. But these positions require my full attention. More attention than I can give when I get the phone call for an impromptu morning meeting. WTF? I booked the other piece a 1.75 points profit and scuttled to a meeting. Returning to my abode, I watched patiently as the move progressed, and when I got a short entry I took it—then got steamrolled. That’ll teach me to fade all-time highs. Had I kept my runner, it would have earned 10 handles without even looking back. I know—I’m really good at hindsight trading.
While my future’s game is of the little league variety, my stock swinging game is clipping away with major league win rates and profitability BUILT IN. Mostly everything won today, but ANGI and GS were both solid con #timestamp for the good people of iBC.
I did quite a bit of transacting today, let’s run through it quickly yes?
I added to my GS long early on, and then later sold it when we neared the 155 target my plan called for.
The remaining long in BBRY was closed at break even, after squeezing some profits out of this turnip yesterday. Blackberry is a big, stupid, Canadian turnip.
I grabbed OptionAddict’s coattails via JOEZ. It’s not nearly as homo as putting ones hand in another man’s jean pocket.
I scaled a little bit of ANGI off. Why not take 5 percent before your catalyst? I still like it into tomorrow’s housing stats.
HAIN was bought into the bell, as it flagged along into the final hour of trade. My order was followed by a little squeeze which gave the daily chart a lovely look.
All this shuffling took my cash down to 40 percent. I’m standing atop the mountain on a small piece of rock, being propelled higher by liquid hot magma. This mountain is in fact, a volcano.