iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,010 Blog Posts

QE Less Likely

The Central Bank intervention crowd, touting their “Don’t fight the Fed” mantra, has kept a bid in the market most of the year.  At least, that’s one reason to be long.  Other investors stay long due to the strong January and the election year statistics.  There are other reasons to be long, yes, but the cliff divers have the whole European turmoil debt calamity making a strong case for calamity and stock market devastation.  Then there’s our bloody strong dollar.  STRONG DOLLAR MEANS STRONG ‘MERICA.

So we have a strong dollar, we could devalue that puppy and get some asset inflation.  But with corn fields north of the bible belt turning into hot concrete better used for figure eight demolition derby racing, a farmer’s favorite pastime, and the strong jobless print this morning, is it time take the QE bid out of the market?  Yesterday’s Fed minutes also communicated a lack of consensus regarding monetary policy.  By my understanding the corn situation causes real supply based inflation, not the light and fluffy stuff Ben likes to toss on fans over at NYSE.  Am I jiving these recent developments properly?

Now we have earnings.  Are strong earnings bearish on stocks, because they lessen the ability of the Fed to act?  I want to see stocks trade based on individual merit, but we’re in a correlation based market right now.  Seeing how surprise earnings announcements are treated may give guidance to our line of thought.

One thing I do know: US dollars are in beast mode.  Euro trip anyone?

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Backdoor Man (Video Bizzaro)

Sometimes I place all my attention on the front door only to have villains slip in the back slider and rape and pillage my purse.  Such was the case with this most recent pullback.  In the markets, there is never a sure thing.  However by my homework we are in a high probability environment for a thrust higher.  However, I’ve been overeager.  My AM purchase of YELP seemed ill timed as the stock diddled lower most of the day.  It now rests right on support.  A support I would prefer to see hold prior to positioning.  I did not sell, but now consider YELP one of my top two “hit the bricks, dicks” stocks.

I sold Pandora.  I don’t like it sub-$10 no matter how much Morgan Stanley reiterates their overweightness.  I KNOW YOU’RE OVERWEIGHT, ALLS YOUS.  You sit at your trading desks wearing a monocle and gnawing on lamb shanks with grease dripping down your chin.  Puke.  I puked out the shares below the $10.00 Mason-Dixon.

I sold TPX only to repurchase the position.  I have been all over the place today, but I’m not sure I want it any other way.  Still a solid pick IMO.  IMO people.

The utility allocation holds AWK & DTE.  I’m considering dollar-cost-averaging into CMS too.  Eventually I may build 30% of my risk capital into these names, fuck it.   Collect a coupon and fling pickles at the window from my rocking chair like an old dolt.

I retain ZNGA and will trade it exactly as outlined on July the fifth.  And sticking with the “Z” theme I’m still in Zillow and considering adding.

Sometimes when you’re caught a bit off guard, you have to resort to hitting the deck:

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Locked Up: Long – Stuck Wanting a Conjugal Visit

Nothing like an old fashioned 1.5% dick whack to wake you up!  Pandora grew YoY but not MoM and traders used the data as an opportunity to get the price moving.  I’m comfortable with my position sizing in the name and tomorrow’s price action will tell me whether or not to stay with the name.  However, being a 15% position, it took a good lick at my PnL.

Today’s market could not catch a bid, period.  At no point today could you look at the tape and see buyer initiative or reaction.  Sometimes there are more sellers than buyers.  That was the case today.

Additional cock blows were delivered by traders in YELP.  You fucks, you short-sighted human paraquats.  You make me sick.  “Daaa, Fly say sell, me sell stock.  Me thinks its okay to write ‘me thinks’ like a fatass baby in a candy shop 🙂 🙂 daaa.”  Anyhow, I expected YELP to pullback.  I even expected we may see an 8% pullback.  I just didn’t expect to get it served to me like a cheap beer at a frat party, funneled into my ass.  As I said earlier, if I see buyers reemerge, I’m a buyer of this dip down to $21.50.

Homosexual fraternal drinking rituals aside, I like the action in Zillow and Temur-Pedic.  They took todays selling in stride as if gentlemen were trading said names.  I highlighted my risk on TPX in an earlier post.  Zillow I could have trimmed from today as it looks like it could roll.  But what’s the point if I’m willing to buy any dip above $36.00?  Instead I will greet the down days with a visit to my favorite deli.

I added DTE to my utility repertoire although I don’t consider it as “sure a thing” as AWK.  I don’t like where price is right now, so I’ve started small.  I’m a buyer down to $50.00.  Those fuckers are seeing unexpected demand from degenerates growing plants in their basements.  Not to mention the ungodly heat.  Who needs an assembly line economy?  Not DTE, if I may be so bold.

I bought XLB yesterday and sold it today.  That, my friends, was a losing trade for which I had zero patience.

Tough day.  Having only 50% of my skin in the game has me eyeballing this dip.  Will it be bought?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXx06CCG_w0&feature=youtube_gdata_player

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This Afternoon in Tech

If you’re a follower/trader of the indices, you know where we stand pricewise: momo pullback mecca.  The key now is dissecting the market action occurring to determine if big players are stepping in to buy the dip.  What makes the dip in QQQ interesting is its current placement near the top of the brackets we traded mid-May through June.  The moving averages I follow are aligned properly and slightly turned up.  However I’m not buying aggressive yet, as a knife lower could nullify the entire setup and send the averages back to their stagnant state.

There are two mobile tech plays capturing most by interest.  I’m long both.  Pandora and Yelp are two entirely different situations, let me explain my sentiment:

Pandora spent a long time balancing out with price ping-ponging between $10 and $11.50.  Much coin has been banked playing the bracket.  The range tightened up over the last six sessions, and I got big anticipating a significant move away from the consolidation.  I knew sub $10 would trigger stops and cascade price lower.  We saw just that this morning as the bid was smashed lower (No Rhino).  However price has rebounded throughout the day.  Unless price gets downright ugly again into the close, I’m giving the position until tomorrow to regain its footing.  Much like the initial reaction to a Fed announcement is the fake-out, a tight consolidation can do the same to shake out weak hands and balance the inventory.

Yelp was sold today by Le Doctoure.  He was the biggest online pundit in the name.  It was a bold trade, and we all tip our hat to his steady market hand.  I’m not going to sugar coat being long the name, yet.  Today’s order flow in YELP is all sell.  But it certainly seems sellers are getting ahead of themselves.  As a momo trade, I like YELP as long as it is north of $21.50 on a closing basis.  If we see buy flow stepping into the QQQs this afternoon, I may add.  Otherwise, I’m looking to add on the next green day.  Price is balancing out a bit here at $22.50, but I want to see some rotations higher before I get aggressive.

We’re in long side momo mecca friends.  Worldly problems or not, if I see the offer being lifted, heavy bids, and healthy rotations higher, I’m grabbing on for the rip.

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Bulls Calmly Assert Dominance into Close

The bears spent most of today unraveling what was an otherwise patriotic kickass week for good stocks.  Bad stocks, like Ford, not so much.  Nevertheless, bears really put a damper on this week’s trade as it’s human nature to give more weight to the most recent past.  They tried ending the week with notes of black smoke paired with a bold nutty finish.

It was not to be had.

Late morning dip buyers were made whole by the close of the bell.  It was quite splendid to be a spectator today.  I was waiting for the late afternoon rally to ensue, hoping they wouldn’t start too soon and blow it before close.  Beautiful timing, beautiful execution, brilliant!

Just enough pump occurred this afternoon to keep everyone curious going into next week.  Charts could set up well to the long side should we see a higher low met with strong demand.  TBD, folks.

Enjoy your weekend.  Especially anyone in this maddening heat!

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Liking This Bed Trade

Beds are big business.  Just like the peddlers of dirt nap accoutrements, bed salesmen don’t bother selling you a bed, they sell you the fear of living without one.  Big business bedding is, with nice padded margins.  Consumer sensitive yes…so could the same store sale data from Costco missing estimates be extrapolated out to Tempur-Pedic sales volume and further to the share price?  The fuck if I know.

I know two things about TPX:

I like the picture of the chart

Lots, like glue trucks full of ampersands are chasing TPX trying to slop glue all over the share price like some fucked up adhesivephiliac PETA member

The chart I like, the lawyers I turn a half smile to.  Class action mother fucksters, with their mailers, late night teevee ads, and phone jockeys.  These guys I really do like as they’re industrious risk takers and that’s what drives our country to continued greatness.  Squirrels chasing nuts.  They definitely help define sentiment, which at this point is shit.

When I look at the charts however, I see risk I can manage, and juicy mean revision potential.  Take a look:

 

 

And I really like trading mean reversion trades in summer trading range markets. Hit the corners players.

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Mobile/Social Stock Strategy Talk

With the action seen in Yelp and Zillow over the past swing, my attention continues to be on social and mobile plays.  The sector is certainly attracting risk capital again.  I’m already positioned in P, YELP, and Z.  YELP and Z will continue to perform well, and I’ll look to ratchet up my YELP position to 10% on the next pullback.  I’d love to get some low twenty one dollar pricing, but will assess the buyer appetite on the next pullback and trade accordingly.  Zillow is still a messy chart in my view and will continue to be a 4-5% position until I get a clearer picture of the flow.

Pandora I am big in ~15%, with my cost basis right here at 10.54, and I’m playing for the break.  The potential energy in price is big after a long consolidation and the break either direction could see significant price discovery.  So don’t get cute and add to a losing long.  Cut it sub $10 on a closing basis.

Mostly I want to turn your attention to Zynga.  I don’t like this company.  It’s run by derelict Silicon Valley coconuts.  They make little games that distract and numb the populous.  The stock trades so very shittaly.  So utterly lame is ZNGA in fact, I’m considering buying it.  Why you may ask?  Mean reversion.

With the social-mobile hot pocket coming back on line, and gambler money jonezing for picks, Zynga fits the speculative bill.  It’s beaten, deserted, and five bucks and change.  That means noobs can play.  That means it can get wiry.

I’m willing to risk down to $4.36, so right now the drawdown is ~20%.  Therefore a 5% position would risk 1% of my portfolio.  I don’t like the trade that much.  So price needs to come down a tad more.  I may or may not get my position, but I’d like to get a 5% position, and risk 75 basis points, so I’m looking for a $5.00-$5.10 entry.  I’ll double down and lean on $4.50 should it trade, and bail south of $4.36.  All the aforementioned is hypothetical of course until I get my initial entry.

Don’t forget to mind the resistance, scale some profits. Don’t be a pig.

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The Heat is On (Yes, Song Included)

Well summer is full swing, market volume is low low low, and it’s hotter than @QueenXenia’s sunburnt thighs outside. That could only mean one thing: it’s time to grill…SHORTS. And meats and veggies of course, sure sure. But shorts require a special grilling vessel known as the brazen bull. Weber makes one and you can find it at your local HD.

Joking aside cool headed iBC resident chessNwine has laid out the strategy for the week. We’re looking for low-float stocks with significant short interest. Fly is squeezing fuckers too. Just as my TPX position could not catch a bid this morning and resulted in rapid price discovery to the downside, short squeezes levitate the offer resulting in a pump higher. The moves may be temporary however, and by no means should it be your only strategy.

Current positions by weight are as follows: P, ADS, Z, YELP, and EXK. Pandora I’m huge in, now 17% of my port.

50% cash and 5% AWK .

Pandora is getting wiry into the close. That is all

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Bracket Committed

 

 

 

When you define market conditions to be range bound, it’s good to establish price levels, often called goalposts, which define the range you’re envisioning.  The idea here isn’t to predict the future but to hone in your observation and interpretation of market behavior at these reference points to gauge sentiment and conviction (or lack thereof).

I opined what I thought were my range posts back on June 8th  and I still am using the same vision while positioning myself.  We’re now reaching the upper bracket of the range in the SPY, but my favorite high spec mobile company, Pandora, is bouncing off bracket low.  Although we may see another downside rotation through our range on the indices, I used today’s big push as support to size into Pandora.

The daily chart of Pandora has chugged through a range since blasting off the $8.50 base during pre-FB-IPO days.  Since then it has churned $10-$12.  And in my view, market participants are accepting a higher value in the price of Pandora stock, and the next move will be price discovery to the upside.  Thus, when I saw price sitting on the bracket low yesterday, I put my tester piece back on.  If you’re going to play the bracket, you must commit.  This morning, it looked strong so boom, I ratchet up to a 12% position.

Unless it charges $12 like an angry bull, the plan is to take a 1/3 scale if we approach $12 from below.  Otherwise I will press, but look to scale a piece during that trading session.  The remaining position will be under close scrutiny for another round robin down. Below $10.00 we could see a cascade of bone crushing sell stops. I want to avoid that mess.

Trading brackets, SIMPLE, but never easy.  Commit baby.

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Picking Up Nickels on Land Mines

This week most of the twitter stream is focused on the same names.  It’s apparently causing a crowded situation.  Everyone’s hitting on the same girl at the bar simulatneously, all getting in eacother’s way and rejected violently.  I was tempted by LNKD as it setup after lunchtime only to be on the receiving end of a nasty downdraft.  I like the look of the dailies and was considering letting the stock run its course, but I swapped it out late in the afternoon for Zillow instead.

Zillow I like both as a company and a chart of price activity.  LNKD not so much, I think it’s where tight slacked homos stroke eachothers ego. Now Zillow, It hasn’t done much since IPO, but for the time being $33.00 has been solid support.  My stop hovers slightly below there and I will lean against the number and add should we trade into the support zone.

Beyond that I scaled off some exposure today as detailed in my earlier post.  Scaling works for me.  Everyone’s strategy is different but I find the key to my long-term success is taking hard fought profits.  Especially in a directionless, no momo tape like the current.  I also find it key to let runners run.  I thought I would have a piece of Pandora running along freely like a wolf.  Instead I have no position left.  This climate is not conducive to swinging multi-month trades.

My EUO hedge was scaled back a bit this morning because tomorrow is likely to whip the currencies around.  I still like the price behavior however and retain 2/3 of the hedge.  This ETF slugs around mostly.  I currently have 10% of assets here.

Cash & AWK: 48%

Longs (by weight):  TRIP ADS YELP Z TPX VHC

TPX is being attacked by suits and ampersands, tread carefully on this sleepy name.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1H7vZYBeHc&feature=youtube_gdata_player

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