iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,255 Blog Posts

Computer Blue Go

My home computer aka JET FUEL ONLY was so aghast by yesterday’s session that it could only stomach charting half the session.  And even though I calm it with restarts and data massages it refuses to provide me a full readout of the auction from yesterday.

The session yesterday was the widest range since 10/18/2011 and it was all selling after gapping higher on the open.  Headline risk drove the markets, which used the Italian elections as an excuse to selloff.  The stability of the Italian state came into question.  I can tell you as someone who has spent extensive time in Italy, they LOVE politics.  They love food, fast cars, and beautiful people.  And that’s it.  All of this gives them a dramatic flair.  They’re taking the election confusion in stride, it gives them something to live for.  The market has wanted to gut momentum traders for weeks.  This was as good a reason as any.

As for the rest of the week and how we should trade it, the key is taking it one day at a time.  There is a major low volume void at 1481.50.  If we begin rotating lower today, we could see this level behaving like a magnate.  Sometimes the market sharply rejects these low volume voids.  This is also where we put in the globex lows (which were yesterday late-afternoon). Below I show support at 1471.50.

Upside, let’s see how the market behaves from 1500-1504.  That can give us an excellent feel of sentiment. 

Here’s my chart output from yesterday:

 ESMP_02262013

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Slammed About

We have certainly seen an uptick in volatility, yes?  I can say with the certainty of someone who “enjoyed” a 3% gyration in speculative funds that volatility has indeed picked up.  All of this movement occurred in my portfolio even though I started the day with around a 30% cash position.  It makes sense however.  I own some of the hottest potatoes out there.  Here’s an ode to my hot potatoes, may they be passed to another participant before exploding molten hot potato goo on my person.

First Solar, you were a good chart, perked up and dipped down, ready for a pump.  It’s a shame I top ticked you today, making my position full sized.  Thirty three seems as good a place as any to stage a rally from.  I’ll revisit you, I’m sure.

Cree, you are awesome.  Your lights are so bright!  And with such low energy consumption!  I don’t care what the others say about your death march higher.  They’re just jealous.  Go on with your bad self.  I wait with bated breath to see you trade around forty.  I bet I’ll buy more there.  I’m holding this one through the storm.

Zynga, you’re that person I never trusted, and you come through in a pinch.  I look forward to the days when my children hack into my bank accounts and use said pirated funds to gamble on your platforms.

Angie’s List, we all know your milkshake brings all the boys to the yard.  Do what you have to, as long as it’s not filling your entire earnings gap.

Chipolte, I’ll never trust you.  Not in a world with Cool Ranch tacos.  I’m watching you.

Temper Pedic, you have had the same product your entire life.  Your new product has a new name, same feel.  Market it well.

I’ve held other names, and continue to hold a few more.  They’re not crack rock like the above though.  I’m not going to downplay what we’re seeing here.  I don’t mean to be overly cheeky at this juncture.  I got slammed so hard this time last year I cringe when I see March.  I’ve raised my cash up to 50% by blowing out my GS, FSLR, TSLA, and scaling some ZNGA profits.  Let’s see what tomorrow brings us.

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No More Bullish Morning Posts

mullThe newest trend sweeping across my blog is the bullish morning post followed by a swift and smooth distribution in stocks.  I step up and buy something in size, like FSLR, wholeheartedly embracing where we are in this rally, and I get wet noodle slapped by the determined sellers.

There is never a reason to fight the market.  There is NEVER, a reason, to fight the market.  Just go with the flow, Joe.

Well you would think my portfolio was getting shredded to bits, given this 20+ handle move lower, but I seem to exist in some kind of microcosm.  I have a few winners buoying me into a nice green day.  Zynga of course helped immensely, I rang the bell and cashed in on some of that.  But I also have TPX aka the memory foam bed.  SIDE NOTE: these are nice beds.  RETURNING TO BANKING COIN: TPX is putting in a solid day, it needed to today or I was cutting the full size position out of my portfolio.  But here it is, going “onward Christian soldier” while the rest of the market dies a pagan death.  That’s quite curious because you get to wondering what this stock could do if a turnaround Tuesday develops.  I may make this a plus-sized model position by feeding it my DNKN cash from last week’s sale.

 I’m not being stopped out of anything yet, the day is still young.  But my least favorite position is Goldman slacks.  I already banked sic [sic] coin in this name.  I should just move along and plow it all into BX.

Sellers have done well.  They haven’t done great until the close us on the lows.  Otherwise, buy the dip mentality steps in.

UPDATE: Sold GS a few ticks > $150 – still feel like a boss.

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All About Location

good_location

If we are going to stage a low volume lift to new highs this week, you want to be in the names that stand to benefit from such a move.  You want to be in the charts with the best risk profiles and potential upside. 

With that in mind I sold TSLA when it was met by sellers this morning.  I didn’t want to over stay my welcome at casa de Musk.  I booked the gain and refocused the funds into a higher probability setup.  Today, that setup is FSLR.  Solar has been hot this year, but last week offered us discount pricing on the premium we’ve been dealing with in solar.  I bought First Solar in size.

ANGI and CREE are getting sold today and I couldn’t be more excited about this.  I need more of both.  I have a legacy ANGI position from before earnings, and I dipped my beak back into CREE Friday after selling my initial beak dip for a 12% gain.  I’m ready to buy these names on the cheap, stay tuned.

I locked in some of this massive ZNGA win again too. Still holding about a 3/5 sized position.

Find your location and position for the pump.  If we dive instead, you should have your risk defined.  Take your loss like a pro and move on.

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We Have Been Here Before

http://youtu.be/qZCSGwKOntY?t=30s

Good Morning traders, we’re coming into the week hot again.  The Europeans put at bid in the S&P overnight and have seen the contract seven handles higher.  Price has lost momentum near 1524 which is the major confluence noted on my chart today.  It marks the edges of two significant value areas from last week (Tuesday & Wednesday).  How the market behaves at this level early this week will give you a significant feel for the sentiment surrounding last week’s distribution day lower.

Trade was rather gappy [sic] last week, but considering the first distribution day occurred, followed by a gap lower, the fact that the bulls horned their way higher into the weekend gives you a sense of the demand existent in equities.  However, Friday’s profile was poorly formed.  It has a toothy shape, and shows evidence of the low volume.  That is why I’m marking the value area high as an ideally sustained level.  The weak auction is susceptible to re-auction.

And of course I’ve highlighted the pump line, and my out of the way “trip exposure” line should we be greeted by aggressive selling.  Stay open minded.

ESMP_02252013

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FACE NUMBER INTO THE WEEKEND

There you have it folks, this entire week was simply a warm up exercise to get everyone ready for a big pump.  I personally never stretch before a pump.  I don’t think you’re supposed to, but you may want to check with Rhino or Marc David as they actually know how to lift heavy metal.  I don’t stretch before lifting weights because it turns women off.  They don’t want to see your ugly man body stretching.  Stop it, gross.  Grunting and spitting mid lift, of course, is a robust mating call and will cause a flock of zombie-like women to ascend on your person.

We were buyers all day in the house of Raul3.  We bought a little over here (CREE), we bought a little over there (BX and GS), and we bought a little bit everywhere (CMG).  Being long MCD’s Chipotle in a world with Cool Ranch YUM tacos is HIGH RISK.  I don’t advise you do as you see here.  Before you know it our world will become overrun by packs of ravenous zombie people, raiding Taco Bells at 3am for five or six Cool Ranch taco treats.

Yes, I sold a little ZNGA today at 9:50am.  But how was I to know how the day would progress and complete?  That’s the essence of getting it while it’s here.  It is what gave me confidence all day.  Many people need alcohol or cocaine for confidence.  I need to trade well ONLY.  That doesn’t even mean make money, you dig?  Plus I still have a decent sized position for next week’s pump.  Now I go crush all weekend.

It’s been a fun week.  I hope yours was too.  Now we go into the weekend like good consumers.

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Betting on the Betters

I started my position back up in Goldman Sachs, aka your favorite senator’s bank, and Blackstone Group this afternoon.  I can’t help it.  When I see S&P marching onward and upward I have to get longer.

You must look at this blog and think, damn this guy has ADD, a flip flopping democrat.  I sashay in and out of names making my broker very happy.  Then I think, look at this crazy market, up up up! Check check check! It has me trigger happy is all.  It works for me.  What works for your average millionaire is to give their money to Blackstone, and let them do all the sashaying.  You catch my drift?

Everyone wants to sashay into stocks, whist lounging on their silk sheets from RH.  Know that Raul3 never sleeps on silk sheets, as they are disgustingly slippery.  I like cotton, 10,000 thread count or more.  And I really don’t like sleeping.  Five hours max when globex is running.  Irregardless [sic] brokerage houses and i-banks are hot like housing and social.  Thus I’ll pay along, until I don’t.

The S&P is putting in a balanced session, much like my morning plan called for.  This does not mean we are done going down.  Nor does it mean we go higher, lower, or sideways.  It just means the market is behaving, comporting itself like a performance enhanced cyclist.  Closing north of 1510 is like a fresh spray of deer antler.  Let’s see if the bull robots have it in them.

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Crushing Again

The dip in solar stocks is looking smooth and buyable so far.  I’m not kicking over shopping carts and earning the scoffs of housewives like when I go after the last rotisserie chicken at KRO at 8pm (near market close) but I am reading the labels and deciding if I want to add another solar to my cart.

As you know, I’m still long shares of FSLR.  I think this stock has big upside potential, but it may need a bit more time before setting up for another leg higher.  In the meantime, shares of SOL and STP are trading well.

I bought back my CREE position this morning.  Why sell a winner?  Stupidity that’s why.  I need to get better at sitting on 10%+ gains like the noble Senior Tropicana.  Other morning actions: I sold some of that ZNGA I added yesterday and paid for a weekend of booze, bars, whores, and debauchery in the process.  As Fly will tell you, market gains are to be used for the superfluous only.  Don’t be a bish about getting it while it’s here, boy.

Also, it turns out the earnings reaction in TSLA was, in fact, an over reaction. Developing…

Have some charts you freaks:

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Early Expectations and Clues

I’ve awoke to a lovely snow of the arctic variety.  I trade best in these situations.

A strong overnight session has pushed the S&P futures nearly ten handles higher and is currently making new highs as we enter Friday’s cash session.  We’re slated to open around 1510.  Yesterday I highlighted what I see to be a poorly auctioned area spanning from 1512-1504.  Early on I’m looking for reactive selling to drive price lower, targeting Wednesday’s low at 1506.25.  Then I’m looking for buyers to reenter and balance trade, giving us an auction in this zone for the remainder of the day.

If we should see buying at the open, a breach of 1511.50 could give us a quick ramp back to 1517.75.  The thin profile above suggests aggressive behavior by the sellers.  Should we not see a sharp rejection of these prices, but instead acceptance with volume, price can quickly revert to the value above.

Simple and sweet, let’s close this week out well.

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Proceed With Pomp and Vigor

It was a pretty interesting day to be a trader.  The sellers made themselves known early by pressing their bets as my plan leaned toward.  I can’t see the market as clearly at 4:15pm as I can at 4:15am.  I don’t know, perhaps the fatigue of juggling corporate job, playing hand grenade hot potato with stocks, keeping tabs on my enterprise, and staring out the window at the salty landscape below fade my edge by afternoon.  But when I wake up and turn on the markets, they’re so clear, OLED HD clear.  You should read those AM posts, they even surprise me.

I was an early seller, cutting more losers out of my book.  I cut Citi, Facebook, and Cree.  Cree was a ten bagger.  It was a fourteen bagger last week, doesn’t matter.  Then I sashayed into SRS (ultra-short real estate ETF) on the first dip of the day and swung it trough-to-peak and sold like a boss.  It felt nice.  It felt nice booking two winners today.  You know what else felt nice?  Seeing Restoration Hardware continue to get the homo hammer to the head.  Winning while losing.  Facebook turned into tank book after I sold it too.  Hell, I’ll take it.

After all the above was said and done, I was around 60% cash.  It felt too heavy, having that much cash, so I went hunting.  One of the advantages I have being an independent trader is position sizing.  I can get in and out no problem.  One of the disadvantages, in my opinion, is I can end up having too many names in my book.  Too much to keep track of.  I was cognizant of this early this year.  My goal then was to gamble a bit, but eventually build into 5-9 core holdings.  Before yesterday I had fifteen.  So when hunting, I looked first at my existing positions, where they have gone since origination, and whether I could add.  I’ve booked two solid gains in Zynga and was sitting on a legacy position up over 30%.  Sure it could go back to its horrible 10% slasher-horror antics, but it shrugged these last two days off.  Thus I bought more.  This is however, slightly uncharacteristic of my style.  I usually wait for buyers to step in and confirm support.  That’s something I now have left unknown.  Thus the position is not full sized, but instead ¾.

Then I bought TSLA because the earnings reaction felt overdone, it’s near a risk I’m willing to wager, and there was heavy volume lifting the offer into the closing bell.

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