I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,310 Blog Posts

Morning S&P Market Profile Notes

I have very little to say today, as the influenza has me feeling rather faint this morning.  Have a look at the chart markup below.  Note the short squeeze last Thursday followed by the long liqudation yesterday.  Neither party is pushing their initiative yet.



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Cliché April Foolery

Perhaps it’s the crystal crack meth I’m holding in my portfolio, and the fact that each of them is a loser, but what looks like minor damage on the S&P has my portfolio down 1.5 percent today.  If I was heavy long, sure, that makes sense, but with cash over 50 percent it comes as a bit of a surprise.  It’s like oh hello April, I see you’re coming in like a lion.

So I’ve been forced to take two losses today; first I cut Yelp, and this afternoon Ford.  Here’s the gist, at this juncture, I’m not loosening risk and letting setups work.  Ford very well could turn around this week, but the daily chart is sloppy, and not something I’m lending patience to right now.

Yelp plum fell on its face, as did most of the social media space. To hold even a trace would be a disgrace. I want only the ace. I want the ace.

My holdings now are (by size) CMG, ANGI, AIG, ZNGA, CREE, and old pokey aka AWK.

We could talk about each and what they’re doing, but you have charts yes?  You see much of what I do, no?

Here’s my bottom line: there’s lots of POMO on tap this month.  It’s a strange environment.  As we wind down into the close, we’re getting a b-shaped profile, suggesting long liquation and not much more.  The sellers made progress on many individual charts, but they haven’t taken the big board yet.  Moreover they haven’t controlled the big board all year.  However, this is a new quarter, a page turn if you will.  Therefore we all need to stay vigilant.  Like, why the hell is the Yen so strong today?  Just be cognizant of the environment.  I’m a bit unsure, hence my huge cash.

Be well.

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Swept Up in a Wave

Being a heathen of the highest order, it’s only fitting that the Lord would strike me and my family down with the influenza over the weekend.  A wave swept through our households violently, like the air from a vengeful sarcophagus.  Much like The Ben targets short sellers.

It’s death by vomit then dehydration for the short sellers.  Their only Gatorade is a margin call then rehab.

Let’s take to the profiles, shall we?

Click the chart to enlarge it to “chocolate bunny” size and read the key notes:



Early on I’m looking for sellers.  I don’t expect much from them, and I’ll look for buyers to balance out the trade above 1559.  Once the data comes out at 10am EST, I’ll look for either party to begin pushing their initiative.  Depending on who is asserting control of the tape, either the above profile notes for downside come into play, or we take out the highs and pump.  I’m ready for either.

Don’t let anyone fool you, it’s April first, fool.


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Price Pylons Guiding Launch



Before we attempt liftoff today buyers will want to defend the following levels.  If they don’t, I have my line in the sand for reducing exposure:



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So Many Missed Ideas

I get a certain type of perturbed when I miss a good opportunity.  It’s 2013, shit’s cray.  I’m calling a generational transformation right here, right now.  There are things we don’t even know we want yet, that will be indispensable in three years’ time.  In such a phase, if you don’t keep tight and on point, ideas simply drift by, like fat salmon drifting up stream.  With such a flow of fish it’s only natural that a few slip by.  Just know someone else is eating those delicious missed fish, living in the lap of luxury.

Things are going well, don’t get me wrong, but I missed two jumbos this month.  I’d say it’s a good problem to have, too many ideas flowing.  Being the opposite, following a template lifestyle of sorts, is certainly a drag.  So I’m venting two big trades I missed.

BBY all month and TPX this week

BBY was a certain type of fail, where I just continued to fail.  It was my Super Bowl pick.  I do things, like my Super Bowl pick, or March Madness pick, mostly by looking at the charts.  However, when I can incorporate an external, although often subject to extreme subjectivity, it makes the trade all the better.  I overheard (read) that BBY had a funny commercial game day.  I like funny; it’s the safe play for big time commercials.  I bought January 31st, a decent entry, of the higher octane variety.  I stopped out, and looking back that made sense.  However, I let it linger on my watch list, and it gave two more entries, and I missed them.  It’s been ripping.

TPX I have gotten so much of.  I’ve been on that trade all.year.long.  That is until missing today’s pump.  I sold it a few days back citing a very flimsy formation of a notorious double hammer position.  Truth is, I didn’t have much reason to sell, I found one, as Chess likes to say.

That’s all, just getting that off my chest.  Onward and upward.

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$YELP Enters the Hon3y Hole

Take this setup with a grain of salt, and keep your risk tight in consideration of how extended the indices are.  However, Facebook is seeing some relief today, and there may be some revision to the mean in store for the name.  If yes, that could bode well for the socials in general.

Full Disclosure: I’m already long. 



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Europe at it Again

Futures are 10 handles lower since the European market opened. Here are some important levels of interest today:


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Lateral Moves

While Le Doctour has taken the market’s indecision as a cue to back off from his positioning, I have been aggressively churning my portfolio like a tap dancer in a minefield.  Stocks are blowing up, and blowing down.  Stock pickers are totally en vogue as money sloshes around in the market.

Today I sold my remaining shares of LEDS around 1.35 and a brief look back suggests I sold too early.  That’s the problem with knowing a company is complete shit, you’re trigger happy on the gains.  However, a 25 percent gain in two days is sufficient to keep bread on my table.

I bought ANGI back and it started ripping so I bought more.  It’s a full position now, threatening to make all-time highs alongside our historic market.

I closed out RGLD in a passive manner.  I placed a protective stop on the name ensuring I would earn 5 percent.  It triggered and I went on my merry way.  Plus the gold chart looks peak’ish.

Into the bell, @ragincajun dropped some breadcrumbs in the back ally, via the hybrid movers, and I curb-stomped two other bums to get my hands on the best pick, AIG.  I’m long AIG now.

Finally it took every bit of discipline I have to not sell ZNGA.  It’s been flirting with my stop all day.  It’s been trading like a loser all week, but it hasn’t crossed my risk parameter yet.  It’s simple ruffling my feathers in a most egregious manner.  Let’s hope she doesn’t gap down on me.  Come’own everyone, do some hoping for Raul.


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Bias Levels

How we trade relative to the following sign posts will give me information regarding who is in control of the tape. Continuing to trade within this range signals consolidation/indecision, which is still a postive environment for individual setups.


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There’s Always Tuesday

Price clawed its way back to value before closing out the cash session.  There’s certainly indecision present.  Here’s more shorthand on what happened:

Major new highs overnight

Large opening swing

Sellers assert tape dominance

Price craters through the entire Friday range

Intraday shorts start working

Shorts get faded

Price pushes back up to value

Value settles lower than Friday

Big outside bar is formed

There was no clear winner, but I don’t like this Yen strength.  If it continues, we’re operating in a different environment than we’ve seen thus far this year.  Lots of charts are extended, like today’s winner AWAY.

Don’t chase risk.  Our job as traders, especially at this juncture, is to take as little risk as possible.  Tighten up that risk.  Get it tight, get it right.

Warm Regards,

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