There’s some follow through so far on this move lower and the bears seem to be having a little fun. Perhaps we’re setting up for the Sell in June, Pop the Cocaine Balloon trade. Perhaps this is just another buying opportunity. You know my style, I wait for the big hands to stabilize things then I hop on.
I brought those $ES_F single prints to your attention earlier. They were in fact slippery and we ripped right down them.
If the Paul Bunyan hands don’t show up soon, I may cut a couple of my laggards.
I tried catching the falling knife that was NFLX this morning. I went long at 222.50 and stopped out around 218.75. I’m not sure what has the stock so weak this morning, but I was playing for a snapback.
I had an early picture to go long $ES_F right around the opening bell but never got my fill. The next look came to the short side just after 11am and I took two contracts for 1.5 handles each.
The spooz are still threatening more downside action, I noted the single prints from 1663.50 – 1659.75 in my morning look. If we trade through 63.50, I would be prepared for a swift move to retest the 1660 level. However, the big move last week is looking corrective in nature with the trend upward still very much intact.
Tue May 28, 2013 7:24am ESTComments Off on Taking Us Back to The Old School for More Clarity
We’ve had several instances of overlapping profile development recently, and it made me miss my old school market profiles. So I’m bringing them back, yes yes, very exciting.
Thursday featured a large gap lower that was steady accumulated all session only to be followed by Friday’s holiday tape which also gapped lower and was accumulated all day. Friday’s profile was contained entirely inside Thursday’s which is aka an inside reversal pattern.
I wanted to merge the two profiles into one after seeing their volume characteristics. Once I’ve done so, I get a clear picture of the auction that took place at these prices, and the relevant levels to monitor.
I also split the big selloff into the early distribution and the change.
I’ll be monitoring the following levels as we open up this morning:
Whoever made the decision to schedule Memorial Day here was on to something. The placement of this much needed rest is divine. I spent the weekend decorating the graves of my losing trades. Most trades receive a solemn salute for their service. For others, I stopped and observed for what seemed like hours, with deep introspective of the events that led to the loss.
I reviewed every trade taken in the S&P this month. If only ironically but perhaps like a little galactic wink, there have been 99 trades. A blanket of inpatients was strewn over the field. And from the review a glaring bit of clarity emerged. I must stick to my plan. I have two data sets, one with trades taken according to my plan and the rest.
Check check it out:
Pretty good numbers on the planned trades. Something to build on, no doubt. But the thing is, I really like my unplanned trades, even though the numbers suggest I should NEVER trade anything outside my plan. So I hardcoded a nuance into The Plan which lets me have my cake and eat it too. The rule is inspired by the feedback I received from you guys and I appreciate your thoughts. Kudos gentleman, behold! Literary logic to protect my ass:
I will only trade other pictures (like profile support/resistance) if I’ve earned risk capital and with a ‘one round elimination’ format meaning trades can only continue to be taken if the prior trade was correct.
To break it down, I have to only trade my plan until I’ve earned profits. If at that point I really need to take an unplanned look, I have one shot to do so. Not two, or three like Friday. I always build risk into my trades and must be willing to forfeit 1/2 my daily gains if the unplanned trade is wrong. If it’s a winner, and I want to take another, the same rule applies.
Planned trades can be taken any time. Even after a failed unplanned trade. Make sense? If you hate it let me know.
I’ve gone over 100s of charts and screens and bloggers’ picks and have a few hot looks going into the week should the market bounce or even flatline. I’m a stalker long on MSPD, LSI, SNDK, NANO, and UTEK.
Try as you might, you can’t buy RGLD sub 50. Even when the opportunity presents itself, you’ll take to twitter and declare the next plunge in GDX.
Sometimes you don’t understand the force behind a play, but you go along with it anyway. Broadcasting stocks are strong, I bought NXST.
Heptics, get with it. IMMR
Your eyes are important. Take care to keep them healthy even if it means getting away from your monitor to see the doctor. No eyesight = no trader.
Utilities might actually die for bit. Frowny face AWK.
CREE might take some heat next week. I’m ready for that. I’m ready for lots of that. CREE is offering the EASIEST way for our country to reduce its energy consumption. They’re perfectly aligned with our administrations agenda, and they make lots of money. Hard to value but I continue to see all analyst coverage as short sighted.
FB is bracketed. If it comes unhinged and decimates investors again I will me very surprised.
INVN is another great story stock, I’ll tell you over a bonfire soon.
HAIN is quiet, HAIN is good.
DECK made a nice comeback today. I like comeback stories. I smell seller exhaustion.
ANGI has been my second most profitable stock of the year to trade. Who is to say I’m wrong at this juncture?
OMEX needs to find some sunken ship booty, stat.
Enjoy your holiday weekend. Electronic music invades Detroit in a big way every Memorial Weekend. I may partake mostly for the people watching. I’ll be in-and-out, preparing for to crush our shortened trading week come Tuesday.
I had a very strong trading session early on, first selling the pop in the market when the durable goods order came in better than expected and earning four handles. Then I scalped a little bounce four 1.5 handles, then another short earning 1.5 handles.
Then there was a small loss trying long again.
Then another win on the short side, 1.5 handles.
Then three failed attempts at another short when I noted yesterday’s low holding. The market lost its structure, buyers were holding their levels, yet I was pressing shorts. I need to avoid this type of trading. I gave back ¾ of my daily gains going from big ass titties to all that work for peanuts.
Any advice from the experts on how to break such trading habits is appreciated. Otherwise I have to dig out these trading psychology books and do some introspective over the weekend.
I’m going for a short walk and then addressing these stocks. It’s bounce mode there could be some long opportunities.
Fri May 24, 2013 7:24am ESTComments Off on Weak Pre Holiday Morning
Tip top of the morning, memorial weekend procrastinators!
The pre market has turned from moot to rather weak over the last hour, with sell flow pushing into the tape. We’re currently trading at the value area low of our 24 hour profile which is also a high volume node at 1639.50. We could see a bounce here, especially given the one direction nature of this most recent move.
Oddly enough, our profile yesterday took on the shape of a letter P which, in many cases, suggests we spent the session squeezing shorts. That’s relatively uncharacteristic of a large gap down, but I know many long traders who were green come market close yesterday, so it makes sense.
The question now becomes, was yesterday a temporary phenomenon to the upside? The attempt at filling the gap was impressive, so I give the buyers a pat on the back, but we are dealing with a heavy amount of sell flow in the globex hours. It will be interesting to see how RTH handles this weakness today.
I’m keeping with the zoomed back profile to give us reference points to trade.
Thu May 23, 2013 4:04pm ESTComments Off on Feeling Trigger Happy
I have lots of charts setting up how I like. After seeing about 10 of them, I settled upon NXTS, which is a random broadcasting company with a stock flying in the stratosphere. It doesn’t have much of a short float to speak of, but man the chart looks ace.
Anyhow, it’s getting faded into the bell.
I’ll be honest, for there’s no value for me in being deceitful on a web log, it felt like an obligatory purchase. I haven’t felt propelled to buy much all day. Perhaps it’s the Memorial Day, perhaps it’s the price zone we’re in. I’m not entirely sure. Maybe today would have been best spent foraging through the woods for mushrooms?
I like ANGI and I’m glad to have more in on that name.
I also bought INVN, same look chart wise, but actually a company I’m into. It’s the combination of interest in a company and an enticing chart that gets me excited.
It’s a modest green day, surprisingly enough, which makes me feel like we’re still in a market of stocks, and not just a perfectly correlated mess. For now I’ll take it.
I had three signals fire premarket that were victims of a choppy market, and were all stopped. Then when things got moving, the setups were of a nature which I still trade in simulation, and no additional live trades triggered.
Ironic as it may seem, all this early movement was not captured by the Raul.
Aside from the futures, I’ve added to my ANGI long. No other trades yet to report.
Thu May 23, 2013 8:02am ESTComments Off on Zommed Out and Measuring These Balance Zones
We have two major price zones to use as guideposts if this market continues to put in large ranges. The balance zone above (which coincides with a possible gap fill) from 1657.25 – 1653 is our barrier to the upside, and the lower zone, our major support, spans from 1628 – 1623. It’s best to view these areas on the volume profile charts to see their significance.
In between, we have a low volume slip zone that the overnight session had some fun sliding down and up through. I’m not going to inject much bias into this piece, I’m simply defining interesting reference points, and seeing how we behave today.
I want to see if they can form any semblance of a gap fill. How well that goes (or doesn’t) will be telling.