iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,380 Blog Posts

Patriot Rally

Today’s follow through atop yesterday’s move atop last week’s move HIGHER is fueled by pure patriotism.  As I type, the index futures are “giving it up” but I don’t care.  You may in fact be hard up to find a bull who cares, because “the good stocks” are higher; stocks like Fords (sic), Cree, and Apple.

The long wick on XLF and all the jitters it produced have to this point been swept aside, and the financials are behaving rather constructive.

REITS are defying bearish setups, TLT is up, and so is our dollar.  Keep in mind, our jungle informant, deep in the Forex bush, is expecting an ambush on the dollar soon.  Always keep an open ear to Kong.

Pincus over at ZNGA decided he wants his net worth to appreciate, so he replaced himself.  In perhaps the best decision of his life, he hijacked Microsoft’s head of Xbox, brilliant.  I’m constructive on ZNGA henceforth, and will patiently tan my body and plan my entry.  I will likely pepper myself in in 1/2s, 1/3s, or ¼’s due to the nature of ZNGA shares.

My only actions thus far have been tossing fish in the futures, making lunch monies, and scaling off some AAPL shares as we rocketed into the 33ema @ Jerry Garcia aka $420.

I still want SHLD, and I thought your bastards may have beat me to it, but here it comes, right to mama.

ANGI needs to go soon or it’s out, I want to keep my holdings to 12 and this one is, how do you say?  Stalling.

As we enter afternoon trading, the question is, do the bears really want to be short into the kickass fourth of July?  Cover your shares, or face a barrage of whirly birds, mortars, and wolf packs.

Bonus: What’s your favorite firework?  Let me know in the comments below.  I’m going shopping.

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Choppy Overnight but Balanced

As much as I love software updates, I’m still having trouble getting my NinjaTrader platform to display profile charts.  On top of that, most of my historical data was wiped out.  I’m hoping I can recover the data.

Thus I will present the bar chart again today, and reference the key levels from the last two days of trade.

I had a profile running yesterday during the RTH, and the key take away from the action was the P-shape profile as we worked up into the long liquidation that occurred on 06/19.  Buyers were able to squeeze the sellers early on with gap-and-go action, only to see the sellers overwhelm the tape after the morning’s dynamic move.  The initiating sell orders (orders executed at the bid) began flowing in around 12pm, and pressed against a price “shelf” at 1616.  For a moment it appeared they may not break the level and a second squeeze would ensue.  However, they broke the level and were able to rotate us back down to the opening print.

I’ve noted where the shelf exists in orange on the following bar chart.  I’ve noted other levels I’ll be keying off of as well.  Note the light blue line at 1623.75, that is the origination of the big 06/29 long liquidation.  I expect a test of this level soon, if not this week.

ES_BARCHART_0702013

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BOOM! July

eagle

 

Just like that we’re thrown into the month of July, like a Christian catapulted into the Colosseum to feed the lions.  The S&P futures via the E-minis have been all over the place, allowing traders to swing both ways intra-day with relative ease.

The main takeaway from the last 22 hours of S&P moves is we made new swing highs, taking us about half way up the big liquidation snap that started on 06/19.  Even if today marks the high for the week, it’s a damn good one.

The important matter is how the market chooses to digest today’s action as we approach the kickass 4th of July.  Ideally, volume tapers off and everything becomes rather boring.  I would like boring as I sit 80 percent long, because really I only want to buy gigantic fyreworks (sic) and “blow shit up” to impress my relatives.

Imagine a scenario where we slowly print a higher low in-or-around 1600…wouldn’t that spook the bears?

Moving on to book talk, I sold ½ my YGE long for a 10 percent gain.  My track record in trading the name is still negative, but it was nice to land a win.  I still like the name even though it printed a nasty candle today.  I’m keeping my little ¼ on a tight leash.

I added to my Z and GS longs, in that order.  They’re about the same size now, which is about ¾ size.  I see a similar pattern between the two daily charts which is yet to materialize, which means I’m early, which means the high probability hasn’t set in yet, which means I may lose money.  I continue to jump the gun on my setups.

That’s all I did today, essentially pooling my wins from YGE into Z and GS.

I want to join the iBC crew on SHLD down here as I believe the price presents an opportunity to buy the name at a discount.  However, I’m backing off in hopes of slightly lower prices.  I may not see them.

Finally, remember when I bought RGLD sub $50 and then went on a dog and pony show, decreeing my greatness?  Anyhow I only scaled a small bit off and a nasty gap lower made the trade a net loss, but that’s not what I want to turn your attention to.  Instead, I want to discuss how I was offered sub $40 shares by the stock gods and not only did my spider senses fire off a buy signal, “The Fly” spoon fed us high probability statistics.  And what did I do?  NOT JUMP THE GUN!  I stuck my head in the sand.  It’s been a distraction to watch it rip 10 percent since then.  Now that I’ve penned my frustration, I no longer care.

Have a good one

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July Kicks off With a Pump

When the clock struck midnight and it officially became July, the market went on a pure, unadulterated 16 handle run off the lows of the globex session.  The move tested the RTH highs from Friday at 1610 before retracing just above 1600.  A second test of the 1610 level occurred, giving us five touches of this level.

Should it be tested again in RTH, I’ll be playing for a move though it and up to 1614.

I’ve noted other key levels for today’s trade on the following bar chart.  I upgraded NinjaTrader over the weekend and haven’t managed to work all the bugs out.  Therefore I will be trading without my profiles today, aka V.F.R.

Click to enlarge:

ES_BARCHART_07012013

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1 for 6

June, Q2, and all of its awesomeness are in the books.  Now we must press into everyone’s favorite quarter, the third, infamous for blowing up accounts.

We had a little scare there for a minute, with bonds going tits up, but so far these fears have been swept under the rug with all the other market villains.  Will the V-shaped bounce stick in PCK?  It seems unlikely.  Volume has tapered off on the bounce up, making the move appear to be of the dead cat varietal.

So I don’t think we’re out of the woods, whistling and skipping across the prairie…blue skies and Teletubbies, yet.  If you are carrying yourself in such manner, have a plan.  Otherwise a surprise cyclone could drop a garbage truck on your person, like the finger of God removing your sperm from the gene pool, benefitting humanity as a whole.

I say all this to you while I stand atop 80 percent long equities, most of which are consumer discretionary.  Why would I carry such funk stocks in this uncertain climate?  It’s simple really, like always.  The wealthy, like always, they’re confident.  They’re always confident, but lately their confidence is at all-time highs, as measured by the Consumer Sentiment Index.  One of the best ways to improve the overall quality of your life is to upgrade your bed.  Don’t sleep on some piker mattress from a garage sale, covered in sweat stains and bed bugs—filth, I spit on your bed.  Most people (not most iBC loyalists) spend close to 40% of their lives in bed, why be ghetto about it?  The answer is they aren’t, they’re buying TPX mattresses by the factory load.  Good lord these babies have a sweet margin, too.

iBC Loyalists:

pilot

Also, there’s a big consumer push into adjustable beds.  They promise ergonomics, improved circulation, and an ace reading position.  Traditionally only the elderly and hospitalized enjoyed such decadence. Now they come with 52-inch retractable plasma screens at your feet.  UUUuughghgu!  Guess whose mattresses work best in such conditions?  Yep, TPX.

Now I won’t chop my dick off if TPX isn’t trading to $50 in July, but I have a ton of conviction in the name.  I crushed this trade late last year based on the same conviction.  Are you going to tell me I’m wrong?

I have 11 other longs aka peak position count.  I present them to you, largest-to-smallest, headed into July:

AAPL (lol), TPX, F, FB, ANGI, YGE, IMMR, Z, CREE, GS, AIXG, ENPH

May Julius Caesar and his month bring gifts to my person and yours.

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PRESS

The Devil called today’s reversal, but now it’s time to press into the shorts.  They leaned on the bid all afternoon yesterday right at these levels.  Bulls are turning up the heat on their positions.  When we take out yesterday’s value area high at 1610.50 it’s a go.

I’m about 80 percent long in anticipation after today’s adds to TPX and new buys in ANGI and GS.

PS, iBC was all over the reversal:

image

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After a Strong Week These Levels Are Key

The overnight market made upside progress throughout most of the session only to give up five handles over the last hour.  The swoosh lower brings us to an interesting price level, 1606, which coincides with the single prints on yesterday’s profile.

After two days of the market printing neutral sessions, probing the large gap above and finding sellers, and the overall corrective nature of the market, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see some chop/lower prices.  The clear question is whether sellers are again able to dictate lower prices in the effective manner we’ve seen since earlier this month.

I’ve highlighted a few levels of support I’ll be monitoring to gauge any progress made by the sellers and other key levels in the following profile chart:

ES_MarketProfile_06282013

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The Market Feels Heavy

Yet the sellers can’t gain traction.  Every attempt at sending price lower to fill the gap below stalls out.  The sell orders are pressuring the bid this afternoon in the S&P minis but not achieving any progress.  All of this pressure building up has to go somewhere.

Meanwhile, with the help of The PPT I found some shorts in ENPH and squeezed’em pretty well today.  I scaled some profits, but left ½ the position on in case the pain trade continues.  The weekly chart suggests it could.

I hopped on board Zillow today after the impressive Pending Home Sales Index, which crushed expectations.  I hate when a house goes pending, BTW.  When I was about 9 months into my hunt and houses would go pending in less than 3 days listed, I would chastise my real estate agent and damn the illiquidity of homes.  This chart looks mint and I want it to keep looking mint so I can size it up.  For now, I’m ½ size.

These F shares are working out, up around 4 percent since my entry.  So far, we’re looking at a v-shape bounce in a big consumer discretionary.  The same goes for TPX.  This is like the housing trifecta: Z, F, TPX.  You find the house, you buy the car, you buy the bed.

We’ve been trend up all week, which SHOMP-wise makes sense, but for all other intents and purposes seems odd.  Now the questions becomes, do we run into the 4th of July?  If we do, I want to be in patriotic names, like F.

I’m still in FB, did you know that?  I’ve ridden through the trough, and now things are looking really good.  This also fits the suburban lifestyle, shack up and talk politics with your delusional relatives.  Note: I don’t do FB.

Anyhow, I’m 35 percent cash and long the following names.  I’ve bolded my favorites and they’re listed by size, largest to smallest:

AAPL (fml), F, FB, SODA, YGE, Z, IMMR, CREE, TPX, ENPH, and ZION

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Futures Turn from Neutral-to-Bullish Ahead of The Bell

The first profile characteristic of note is yesterday’s neutral session, where we saw range extension on both sides of the initial balance (first hour of trade) and how this type of profile often shows up near inflection points.

The overnight market was balanced out up until 7:45am when a burst of buy orders pressed the market over yesterday’s high of 1601.25.  On the upside, the only profile I’m displaying is from 06/20, above which a large gap exists.

This week continues to bring a series of higher highs and lows giving us upside momentum, this is occurring amidst a corrective market so we want to keep in mind where the buy side action may fizzle out.  The initial probe into the above gap starting at 1609, the high from 06/20, should be monitored closely for signs of an aggressive sell reaction.

I’ve noted this level and other important levels on the following profile chart:

ES_MarketProfile_06272013

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The Gains Are Hard Fought

The tape we’re navigating continues to be tough on me, hesitating to grant me generous sums of money.  I came into the day a little over 60 percent long, as where I was more like 80 percent long on the way down, so I’m not recapturing my losses.

Plus I own some overpriced AAPL.  I’m afraid this stock lost its momentum a few weeks ago and is now destined to drift lower until a catalyst presents itself.  And here I am, -6% on the name.  I suspect we’re seeing profit taking by the huge funds who have called AAPL home for many years.  After a lousy quarter, who wants this name on their books?

My only action today in the portfolio was taking a ½ scale on my ZION shares.  Regional banks continued their strength today and we reached my initial destination.

I’m sick of solar stocks and I own YGE and ENPH.  I thought about selling both no less than three times today but I wanted to give them a chance to regain their mojo.  Perhaps they would think about how cool it used to be when they would run hard.  I don’t know.  Put yourself in a business owners shoes for a moment.  Would you rather build gigantic solar panels on your roof to generate a fraction of the energy you need, or cut your lighting expense by 75 percent?  Lighting which in most business settings accounts for 25 percent of the electric usage.  If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a thousand times, “The easiest was for a business owner to place themselves in the graces of Premier Obama is to upgrade their lighting to CREE bulbs.”  CREE should have been accumulated on the dip…that’s your hindsight trading tip of the week.

I wanted to add to SODA all day and then I didn’t.  It just never convinced me.

Today was one of those sessions in the futures where I grind out all day long to compensate for two mistakes I made.  Then, sitting on a beige-green day, fairly confident the HOD was in, I got cocky and went long again and gave back my daily gains.  I made 1500 in profitable trades and 1650 in losing trades.  The lessons keep coming.

I’m off to tend to other business then swim no less than a mile.

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