ALL CASHED UP

I booked a jumbo win in SUNE into the bell, a position mapped out before Christmas, first by Option Addict and again by muah via my very first Weekly Strategy Session. It was all a dream back then, reading tea leaves and making goat sacrifices to Santo Claus.

Pair that with the fundraising I did before heading out of town last week, and my cash levels are the highest they’ve been all year. I feel dirty.

Tomorrow I will ensure said lazy funds are put back to work, isolated into select tickers, firmly committed to the stock market.

I expect to wake up to a rather horrendous gap, something to frighten the children, a bit of lolly popping, then a rip roaring rally into the bell. There—I give you one hypo.

Any deviation from this path with tingle my senses with an acute burn that all hell hath broken loose and we are destined for insurmountable calamity.

The dogs will bark at the burglar eventually.

You may know by now that I am really into Exodus. PPT was great, but the second I laid eyes on Exodus and saw how intuitive it was, I knew it would help more people become more objective about their investing and trading decisions.

What I like best about the market intelligence suite is how it empowers members to make objective decisions using data. With all the tools available inside Exodus, my goal is to listen to members and understand which features are most useful for their approach. This is an important part of the 1-on-1 tours I do each day.

We are opening the software up tomorrow-thru-Sunday for free trials. Email me [email protected] if you are interested. More important, set up a tour with me before Friday so you know what features are most valuable to you.

Added bonus—each Sunday the Exodus Strategy Session is published. It recaps the prior week’s action, builds context, provides actionable long and short ideas, and more. You’ll be able to read this week’s report and peruse the archive of prior reports.

I know it’s officially summer and you’d rather be drinking a Zima by the pool, but listen to me—your purse could be swelling while others are sweating. Use this weekend to improve your market acumen.

Nasdaq futures are a touch lower as we round the bend into cash open. The session featured normal range and volume while trading inside of yesterday’s range. This suggests we are in balance and nothing overnight changed that. The overnight profile features a weak low and the predominant feature of the session was a 16 point rotation lower around 5:30am, otherwise the session yields little clues on the day.

At 8:30am a buffet of economic numbers was delivered—most coming in-line or slightly better than expectations. At 10:30am we have crude oil inventories and at 2pm it appears a Greek Summit meeting is taking place over in the Eurozone.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down but saw little initiative selling after going range extension down. Instead we grinded back up into the balance formed by Monday’s neutral day. Starting the week with a big gap up, after starting the prior week with a big gap down, may make participants hesitant to chase price higher. However, the longer we can hold balance up here, building acceptance of these prices, the more likely it becomes that we test contract high and explore for buy stops.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4541.25. From there I will look for them to take out overnight high 4545.75 setting up a move to target 4557 then 4565.75. Stretch targets are 4579.50 and 4596.

Hypo 2 buyers struggle while closing the overnight gap and we push down to take out overnight low 4526. Look for price to continue lower and look for buyers around 4511.75 then continued balanced trade.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through 4511.75 to target the 4500 century mark. If they can push trade below 4498.50 look for liquidation to take hold, and a fast move down to 4465.25 with a potential gap fill target down at 4454.

Levels:

You may think I’m lamenting over here, sitting in a puddle of my own drool, enamored by the intraday Facebook chart. Like I’m just sitting here, aghast, unable to stop watching the train crash that was my execution folly.

You think this way because you’re a degenerate gambler of the highest rank. You indulge yourself with a plethora of vices while going “all-in” on high spec positions. This is what, your fifth account?

There are bigger and better opportunities abound, hundreds of opportunities pulling up the rear, and the Nasdaqs, slow as they are today, are providing egg and cheese stipends.

I have a million things still to do today, I’m busier than you. I the busiest man in the world bwahahaha

https://youtu.be/IsdBCHZKfJw

The gods see fit to challenge me this morning in modern ways honest Job wouldn’t grasp. Relative to real problems out there, like not having water, it’s all very hilarious.

My ambitious early start where I channeled sunrise clairvoyance and updated my charts was rendered pointless when a power line a few streets over decided to rip in half. All that remains is my morning blog post but all my local charts must be rebuilt.

I booked a huge loss in PGN today–he’s an oil drill bit salesman (LOL) that without adult supervision went on a conquest to mangle my hand and foot.

To make matters more spectacular, I am merely a shit-grinned observer of Facebook making new all-time highs. My gratuitous leveraged position, which was bought well in advance of OPEX fuckery and dated to expire this Friday because one must cupid shuffle around OPEX FUCKERY, was scratched last Tuesday.

It is with 100% sincerity that I extend to you today’s offer—cast your most rotten tomato at my person. I will abscond the duress you intend to inflict, and instead subject you to spittle while I mash said tomatoes, monkey-like, into my mouth.

Now my portfolio is designated to old man stocks. However I, no matter the circumstances, will not succumb to old man bitterness, for then I would be wasting the transient summer conditions.

Facebook to 100 by Friday.

Nasdaq futures are priced to gap up slightly heading into Tuesday. The overnight session was a balanced-two way chop along yesterday’s midpoint. The range printed is normal on abnormally low volume.

At 8:30am Durable Goods data came in weaker than expected, and at 9am House Price Index did too. The initial reaction to both news items is selling. Also on the docket, we have a morning loaded with low impact events including Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, New Home Sales at 10am, and Richmond Fed at 10am as well.

Yesterday we started the week with a big gap up after news out of the Euro zone sent world equity markets higher. The Nasdaq managed to close the open gap it left behind from May 28^th during the opening trade. Buyers briefly became initiative, pushing us range extension up, before responsive sellers stepped in and pushed us neutral.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for a choppy open. The flurry of news items and balanced overnight session suggest we chop between 4545.75 – 4531.75 before heading higher to test above yesterday’s HOD 4552.25 to target a measured move up to 4557, then 4565.75.

Hypo 2 sellers break the balance to target the MCHVN at 4512.75. Look for responsive buyers at 4509.75 otherwise the open gap down at 4499 becomes a likely magnet.

Levels:

Today is playing out rather marvelous, if I may be so bold. The stock markets lauded the news out of Europe overnight and sent markets skyward. Much like last week, we start with a big gap. This time markets are gap up, a direction congruent with the prevailing trend.

So while the kneejerk reaction is to fade the gap—fade it with the same tenacity we inflicted upon its doppelganger twin—it’s not quite as easy.

I dropped in just now to see markets have gone neutral on the session, my favorite day type. And through the whitewash of market churn, today’s tape has a dapper appearance.

I took the neutral scalp, nothing more. I’m hunting a long, but thus far not overly thrilled with my prospects, through it looks like the Pelicans may be onto a few warm ideas.

You may have noticed my slight absence these last few days. I hope so, I love to be missed. I’ve spent the last several days deep in enemy territory, south of the Mason-Dixon, in the capital of the Confederacy. This is a vile state, with oppressive heat conditions and subpar mechanics.

Nevertheless it is still the United Steaks, and that means money still does a darn good job fixing conditions to my liking.

Through some of the heaviest storms I’ve ever seen, and despite being in a police state with roads smooth as eggs, I managed to tuck away into a foxhole for countless hours to prepare this week’s Exodus Strategy Session.

This week we recap the OHSH signal that my model fired last week, the continued gridlock across most the marketplace, and more. I hope you enjoy it.

Now I must make haste to travel back to the desolate ruins of my northern homeland. I look forward to setting my feet on brown dirt and the libertarian lifestyle it promises.

I run these models, on the market, and listen to me—I do what they say. You either change on your own or you’re forced to. No matter the clunky approach you take to understanding the markets, you inevitably fall in love with statistics.

They tell the story, objectively—cold, dead facts. My favorite.

Nevertheless, context is context, and I relentlessly build it. I cannot shake how bullish the semiconductors look here. I know some of you track the SMH, SMH brah. I look at the PHLX Semiconductor index. It’s more tailored to my baby, the Nasdaq.

This chart tells the story. Great consolidation on a huge action point, a break higher, and a subsiquent retest:

My favorite feature of the restest, something that doesn’t show on your SMH (srsly bro, SMH), is the little failed breakdown that occurred this week. It’s a real wrench in my model’s bear signal.

If I didn’t have a looming bias model that I must adhere to, and likely something I’ll be doing next week, is going into Exodus and finding the best semiconductor stock. How would I go about this? I’d hone into the several semiconductor industry groups inside Exodus, find which is lowest on its hybrid oscillator, then push my nose closer and find the best stock signal in the industry, via our algos.

Data, I have the best, you can too.

You did it, didn’t you? You bought into this afternoon’s strength. Which is fine, I suppose, if you have a stomach for whipsawlery (word?). This feat may result in you feeling a bit morose, however, if/when they pull the proverbial rug into week end.   And who, I say, who wants to deal with that shit during peak rays?

I’d rather pitch batting practice to Mark Maguire, PEAK STERIOD USE, sans cage, then chase strength this week.

YOU CAN HAVE IT, and MOAR.

And I don’t ill upon you, but I do heed caution to the laws of LOGOS.

Everyone’s waiting for the big one. The single day rally that literally slaughters bears by the forest lot. It hasn’t happened in a long-ass-time. A real barn burner—95% breadth, hedonistic wealth creation, the blow off of blow offs, a story chronicled in internet Leviticus.

If I miss said day, high on the pipe of bear hubris, by golly I may light this whole office aflame and dance on its ashes.

Something tells me the dancing will only be on the skulls of my enemies—the degenerate gambler class transfixed on their next round of juice (No Sosa).