I run these models, on the market, and listen to me—I do what they say. You either change on your own or you’re forced to. No matter the clunky approach you take to understanding the markets, you inevitably fall in love with statistics.
They tell the story, objectively—cold, dead facts. My favorite.
Nevertheless, context is context, and I relentlessly build it. I cannot shake how bullish the semiconductors look here. I know some of you track the SMH, SMH brah. I look at the PHLX Semiconductor index. It’s more tailored to my baby, the Nasdaq.
This chart tells the story. Great consolidation on a huge action point, a break higher, and a subsiquent retest:
My favorite feature of the restest, something that doesn’t show on your SMH (srsly bro, SMH), is the little failed breakdown that occurred this week. It’s a real wrench in my model’s bear signal.
If I didn’t have a looming bias model that I must adhere to, and likely something I’ll be doing next week, is going into Exodus and finding the best semiconductor stock. How would I go about this? I’d hone into the several semiconductor industry groups inside Exodus, find which is lowest on its hybrid oscillator, then push my nose closer and find the best stock signal in the industry, via our algos.
Data, I have the best, you can too.
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They fooled you, didn’t they?
They fooled me? No. Only I can fool myself.
So wait. Bearish the overall market but liking some semis?
I’m not even bearish on the market. I was. I had three things that could change my bias, on the week. To a certain extent, all three happened.
The first was an OS sig from exodus. It flagged intraday Monday, nailing the weekly low to the hour, but never sticking into the close–that was the only iffy bias shifting event. I was still selling rips Tuesday, until I realized I was fighting the tape and just stopped.
Third reaction analysis of the Fed Rate decision yielded a clear buy sig, and then we had a trend day today. I can’t be bearish on the market with all that happening.
But yes, thru my bias earlier this week I still think semi’s look great. And if semi’s look great than tech looks great. And if tech looks great, then the market looks great. Hence, I shake my head at the short sig. It nailed the oh shit move, which came Monday morning—but it just as quickly abated.
I have a trin study I’ve been building too, and it was going completely haywire Monday morning, like I’ve never seen. And the only tell I’ve yielded from trin so far is calling a day’s first move into question, which, Monday’s first move was 100% ILLOGICAL, as my algo says hahaha. So henceforth I am juiced up on bull growth hormone.
Ok gotcha. Clear now thanks.
looking for a semi trade, are you willing to share some results from exodus? thanks
May I suggest TSEM. Iffy accounting, never makes real money, high beta, already moving up the last few days. I own some July 17.50 calls and would appreciate the help getting it in the money.
NICE ONE SO FAR