I love how the temperature of the internet changes during our 1-2 days of sheer terror.  It is like the days of terror are new!  Friends, tell me, have we completely forgotten how to take heat?

Typically it gets worse before it gets better, like influenza.

I have some names deep in the red on my books—FSLR and YGE.  I have some WBMD too, my family doctor of choice, off nearly 8 percent since my purchase.

These trades may be wrong and I may be crazy, but it just may take a lunatic to manage a book of high velocity momentum stocks.

We went risk off today.  There were warnings if you put your ear to the rails.  The only problem is the weather is cold, and if you aren’t careful your ear will freeze to the tracks and then you are toasted because train.

I lost 1.24% today but could have lost very much more.  Social media stocks proved a store of value in these rough waters.  The only weak spots were Z and YELP.  I was fortunate to scale a piece of YELP yesterday if only for my psychological wellbeing.  The problem is it goes much higher, eventually, so I am now tasked with getting my size back on.

I sold all of my ONVO yesterday which brought a warm feeling to my emotional capital.  The action you are seeing in this stock is caused by a weak investor base, lacking the necessary discipline of institutional money.  You will continue to see erratic behavior from this name.  Let it get bloodied and beaten, like ENPH, and then we shall reconvene to purchase zeroed out Zecco accounts.

I tried a long in the NASDAQ futures today, just before noon.  It was a low risk trade with decent probabilities.  It took me out for a small loss, but had I remained stubborn it would have destroyed me.  These are the victories of discipline and they do wonders for your confidence.

I scaled off some CREE shares I knife caught in November.  It pays to work your cost basis down when you are working on the wrong side of the chart in a momentum name.

I had some pretty extreme order flow readings into the bell, panic liquidation if you will.  My hope is that it continues overnight and into early trade tomorrow.  It is then that I will be stalking my prey:

ZNGA the dog

FCEL the future

TSLA the inventor

Finally, it is with great pleasure I ride in The Fly’s BALT boat.  I have seen too many Fly trades in my internet years to muff this one.  I started buying on October 31^st like a sage of sorts.  I have been a buyer since, several times, riding the diligent work of my elders who are much wiser.  There is no need to reinvent the wheel out here.  It is all about building upon the previous generation.  That’s the American dream.

Comments »

My book is down a touch over 1.5 percent as I write, as risk gets sold across the board.  Today looks like a trend day down.  We saw cracks developing yesterday which is why I raised some cash but coming into the session this morning I was bullish when buyers showed reactive strength overnight.

We opening inside of yesterday’ value on the NASDAQ which typically suggests we are in a low risk environment.  The opening swing was mixed but soon a strong drive ensued with sellers behind the wheel.  This driving action by the sellers deserves additional merit for originating within yesterday’s value.  It shows strong conviction on the part of sellers.

I tried taking a long just before noon and I was looking for a quick reaction from the buyers.  It never happened and what initially looked like a normal variation type day now appears to be of the trend variety.

I am battening down the hatches for now.  I have 10% cash which I am now very grateful for as I manage my way through some sell flow.  My next move will develop slowly.

Tickers of no immediate interest, but interesting nonetheless include TWTR, FSLR, ZNGA, SINA, and RVLT.

Comments »

I have been very busy this week, making exhaustive preparations for what will unquestionably be the greatest holiday seen in la casa de Raul.  Garland, mistletoe, lights, and cookies—hundreds of cookies prepared to feed my diabetic friends and family.

Let me tell you, Martha Stewart is a dangerous woman.  She is the godfather of mass cookie production while looking fine for a white girl with a prison rap sheet.

I had a strong feel for the market today, based upon my perception of our placement in the sentiment cycle and some hound sleuth market profile work.

Anyhow, I sold AMBA but I will revisit.  I used these monies to promptly start a new long in GRPN.

I sold some YELP.  I took a 10 percent gain on 1/3 of a full sized position.  This is scaling and makes the psychology of swing trading much easier for me.

I sold shares of RVLT which I bought in September.  I am managing my way out of the ugliest chart I own.  This chart is so ugly, I am losing faith.  There I said it.

I sold ONVO.  Something about knowing the fickle retail base present had me looking for the exits.  I closed my runner our, +71 percent.  I quite liked seeing these types of returns, which has me weighing the thought of running an option book…this is still a seed thought.

The net result of above was taking my book from 100% long to a paltry 90% long.  I had a really difficult time selling anything, but I forced myself.

Solar caught a bid, with the Chinese burritos of the solar world catching a particular bit of strength intraday.  It will be interesting to see if follow through occurs.

Should I feel the need to get longer tomorrow, ZNGA is high on my to buy list along with SINA and perhaps I can catch a nip on one of the fuel cell beasts.  ZNGA daily chart is simply perfect.  Otherwise I will look to add to my existing longs, many of which I want more shares.

I must now return to the stove.  Good day market wizards.

Comments »

When we examined the forest tree-by-tree yesterday, it was evident risk appetite was strong.  After two days of sustaining control in the marketplace, sellers were countered by aggressive buy flow Wednesday.  The action started with a strong opening drive.  All of my upside targets were met by 10:15 AM.  It was at this point I hypothesized a trend day was setting up.

The trend context made sense at the time, but it also made it difficult for me to palate the sharp selling reversal.  My thoughts became jumbled and I missed the opportunity to fade the second range extension on the day.  The aggressive selling push was futile because we had already made range extension higher after a strong opening drive.

The very fact that we set such a wide initial balance higher, driven by the buyers was strong indication of their returning confidence and control.  Taking the net sum of the market profile pieces, we can see the buyers gained almost complete control:

Our value area is overlapping/higher

Our close was higher

There is a large buying tail

The only piece missing is a migration of volume point of control higher.  This point of contention is critical today.  Will price revert back to value lower, or will value migrate higher with prices?

As of 8:15am, we are set to open outside of value on the upside.  Overnight, buyers gained control after a balanced session of trade and the result was a higher distribution.  This is a high risk environment where price can move beyond what we often consider normal.  Therefore it is vital we have price levels in mind to guide our context.

I have highlighted key support zones on the following market profile chart:

Comments »

The two way action on the day made for a wonderful day trading environment.  So did the big range.  My emotional capital however is completely wiped out.  I feel like I just went on a three day bender in Mexico and all I have is a bag full of pesos to show for it.

Physically, I checked out for the day when I got stopped out of Zillow during the fast afternoon move lower in the NASDAQ.  On twitter, I was talking this trade out, saying if sellers cannot get price below $70 they lose.  Yet I stopped myself out at $70.51 during the 3 minute candle that marks the low on the session.  It was a small and normal loss, but it was a mistake, my first mistake in weeks.  I took one more trade in the /NQ but was otherwise sidelined for the day with a dizzy head.

The problem is I now have 9% cash when I wanted to be all in early into any potential ramp…so I could sell into it.  Now I may have to keep that 9 percent sidelined unless something truly enticing shows up.

It has been a pleasure riding in the small sidecar I affixed to Fly’s time machine.  Through my tinted goggles I still managed to see and procure a large swath of FSLR and YGE shares, and a nice side of TWTR.  Who was buying TWTR when the market was making new session lows yesterday?   Yeeep…

And those TWTR shares pair nicely with my very large lot of YELP, a company who affords me the opportunity to pen comical restaurant satire whenever I feel the itch.  YELP is giving a voice to the people and it keeps the service industry honest.  Also, if your restaurant makes it on YELP, you are deep in the pockets of tourists.

RVLT went to the precipice of death, starred out over the crag, and decided to walk off the ledge.  Perhaps buyers can build off of this.  Perhaps they can’t.  Either way there are billions of lamps that need to be replaced with LEDs.  Someone will do it, hopefully with dependable CREE components.

TSLA did not keep going up today.  We like stocks that keep going up, like GOGO.  Maybe tomorrow it will go up, like Elon’s private rocket program.  The man is successfully running a private space program and people question whether he can build an electric car empire.  Pitiful, small minded, imbeciles…all of them.

AMBA reports tomorrow and every wannabe X-game star needs this camera.  I talked to some automotive crash test dummies over the holiday who were telling me they [reluctantly] switched most of their collision filming over to GoPros after the young whippersnappers insisted.  The applications are endless.  With drones on the rise, how can Ambarella lose?  I’m asking for a friend.

My top picks into the close of the week are purely chart based, and also my two largest holdings: YELP and BALT.

I could talk about other stocks, but I prefer to keep my mouth where my money is which keeps everything you read here honest.

I am off for some aquatic therapy.

http://youtu.be/Sp2eRmsCxkI

Comments »

 

We’ve had good fun poking the stupidity of Morgan Stanley in their downgrade of AMBA this month. We banked some nice coin along the way.  The recent leg up in our aging index rally has been mostly to the benefit of old men and their mega cap stocks.  The snoozers, if you will.  We participated where appropriate, riding LO and PPC, but to be honest I could have held less crack rock and more bourbon and cigars, the preferred vice of old men.

But today we saw the speculative juices begin to sizzle.  Today we had WUBA pulling out the tits, Emily Ratajkowski style.  Today was for the brazen and the bold, with social media saying, “not.just.yet my friend.”  So my portfolio finally caught a decent boost.

I think there is more in store and I implore iBankCoin readers to get in line at the feeders: names like GRPN, Z, FB, TWTR, and TRIP.  Pay special attention to TRIP as it appears poised to rip.

I am 95% long and low on cash.  I had to sell PPC today to buy Zillow.  I have so much money tied up in LEDs right now and they are not doing a thing, except for bleeding me modestly.  This industry is ice cold, yet I love it.  What is an intermediate term speculator to do?

We caught the Apple breakout yesterday via 12631 service.

Top picks into the turkey: GOGO, YELP, and Z.

I have huge positions in CREE and BALT, yet I do not mention them as top picks.  Hmm…they need to DO SOMETHING.

PS I pretty much spoon fed this NASDAQ rally to you this morning

Comments »

I want to address you, fine people of the internet, very briefly and succinctly and without a drop of redundancy.

There is magic going down in the halls of iBankCoin. It “done gone” down for years. Only I was on the outside, shucking clams in the quest for pearls.

Maybe it was shitty conditions back then, maybe I was a fucking piker, but certainly I was on the wrong side of most trades.

I have been there, just like you.

There’s no magic bullet. There are tools, and there’s committing yourself to the game…running two three hundred charts through your brain each working day, talking shit to Keith McCool And his gay cronies, and adhering to the etiquette of iBankCoin.

You won’t find high level financial juggling elsewhere, trust.

I read the “finest” just like you. I won’t start naming people because you know who I’m stalking.

You won’t find better work, on a daily basis, anywhere else on the internet.

Yes we are crushing the GOGO trade. Yes we provide key index levels, and yes we provide confidence building exercises. We are here to learn alongside you. At least I am.

So read along. Criticize my errors, root for our winners, and bank the coin.

It’s your responsibility as an adult to earn that bread, own it.

I’ve never looked down my nose at anyone approaching this task. Learn with me. Tell your kids of our feats.

And be well.

Comments »

Pardon my fringe existence today, but trust that you would have loved the trading rig I managed to set up in the back of a Mega Bus.  I had to disassemble everything as we came into the closing bell so I could debus in the city of cheap drugs and crime.  No, not Detroit.  Raul has made his way to Chicago.  I am here on a mission of reconnaissance.  I will share the best  of my findings on a later date.

I was able to tether my laptop to my iPhone and then connect to the mother ship to keep an eye on the markets as we teeter only steps away from the abyss…that is prices from last Tuesday.

Perhaps with a more fluid connection I would have stopped out both AMBA and WLT, but from my blazing 1x wireless rig, I felt a bit more confident to see tomorrow.

I made only one move today, a powerful one, buying more shares of GOGO early, before the rip, which brings us around to the titling above.  Morgan, Stanley, and all of their accomplices will lose against Raul.  There is magic going on in GOGO with Raul.  I buy it, it levitates 5-6 percent.  While the redcoats use their horses and dogs to corral the rats, I am dancing a jig and playing my pipe down the road.  The British throw cake at my person, and I simply consume it without missing a note.

GOGO kept the port on team green today, not an easy feat with the rout going down in ONVO.

Yes, Tesla is still going lower.  So is CREE, which I now own a gentleman’s lot worth.  You’re going to have to do worse!  I will make the market commit heinous acts to take away my shares.

3390 is the demarcation line in NASDAQ futures.  We traded it four times, and four times we moved violently from it.  The sellers are 3-for-3 on the week.  Are they feeling lucky?  Can they sweep the week?

Stay tuned to find out.

PS I will be around early tomorrow but attending to matters of the highest order for most of the day, unable to field your inquiries.  If you need me, because I love feeling needed, twitter @twosmuth.

  

http://youtu.be/BLMV9wpPR8g

Comments »

I joined the 100% club this week with shares of ONVO. One can never be certain how high a stock price can go. This is one reason I advocate scaling out. I booked 2/3 of my position throughout the run, but here I am, continuing to ride the wave.

We haven’t even had our first pullback yet since exploding out of that multiple month consolidation. Perhaps the stock comes back on me and suddenly is only up 50 or 25 percent. And that will likely be an excellent buy opportunity.

I have so many shares of the GOGO it makes me feel brawny. I have wanted this company for months, months I tell you. I couldn’t buy them, just like you can’t buy shares now, because the price was too high. Remember The Fly nailing the move from ten to sixteen? I had to watch the stock for almost a month, adamantly, waiting for my stubborn entry. I put good time into getting my entry. This market is going to need to commit some heinous acts to take my shares away. I call it catch me if you can investing.

I had a fantastic week last week trading the /NQ. This week I gave most of it back. I will be completely honest with you, people of the internet, it’s because I deviated from my plan. I didn’t even see it happening until last night. I corrected course and finished green today.

Stringing two weeks of profit together is something I’m yet to accomplish in the futures. When it happens, I’m taking a week off and declaring victory.

The swing port is up a healthy 25% on the year. Sure I could have bought and held the index and outperformed but where is the glory in that? My goal is to press out 8% more and wrap up the year a lovely 33% in the green. That’s why I hunt these stocks like an Aztec ninja.

My positions are plenty, they’ve done nothing wrong. Now it’s just a matter of them doing something right.

Enjoy your weekend and congrats to all my trading comrades on a solid week.

Comments »

I am testing out a new form, a template mostly from the Mind Over Markets book.  Let me know your thoughts:

Comments »