Gone are the days of benign corrections which satisfy the need to courrreccct the stock index market whilst traders sip kahlua and enjoy safe harbor in wild-eyed momentum stocks. These days correlations elevate fast, stock picking is a dart master’s feat, and short duration is an open invite for crimson portfolio shades.

During the chopfest of January and early February I developed “fungula” logic wherein you buy literally the ugliest looking technical chart you can find and voila! It made money. It was fast, fun, and profitable. Then we all climbed aboard another moonraker mid February and went exploring.

The problem was, at least for your dearest Raul, catching some meaningful momo was spotty. So you poke-poke-poke your boat, gently up the stream, gathering trades and then blam-o, a seller works the market over.

If I sound a touch jaded then you’re on to me. Fortunately I’ve had success today operating the SS Harmonic Raider across the fast waters of the Nasdaq otherwise I would be downright salty.

I sold out of oil today on low tick of the session. I thought my support level was failing and down went UWTI. I also sold out of VA and S, booking those ideas to free my mind a bit and challenge it to discover something new.

Tomorrow afternoon we find out how our benevolent banksters fared in this latest round of Fed stress testing and, let’s be frank, these types of events are all that matters to the stock market.

Greek—noise, laptops that are 80% battery—noise, earnings—noise.

Listen to your leaders at the Fed and watch their mechanism, the monthly Non Farm Payroll data. Without QE their only variable is the (as many believe) inevitable rise in interest rates.

Dollars FTW

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Last Friday I found myself on the wrong end of tape barreling lower. But the market opened today and was on sale from the opening bell. Being wrong is okay, staying wrong is a different story entirely.

I am finally coming up for air, but still wondering if this seller is done or merely taking a break to dine on some bull caviar.

This type of trading day make me wonder why I trade all the other days for table scraps. If I could just trade these big trend days I could make a month’s wage in a few hours and spend the rest of the month on iron pumping and urban exploration.

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The seller profiled last week, the one directing this market with elegant waves of his baton, that guy, he is still operating inside this market. His actions are swift, patient, and decisive. The day closed out with some heavy selling after bulls managed to stave off the sell flow for most of the day.

Despite buyers working against unfavorable odds, they managed to pull out a win today. Their victory can largely be attributed to the release of a new MacBook laptop. This device, especially in gold offering, managed to work the broad markets to session highs.

You may be a hater of the gold Apple devices, but then again you probably aren’t Chinese. Likewise, you probably aren’t buying Chinese internet stocks down here because it goes against your Anglo-Saxon demeanor.

But the sun will always rise in the east and cast its warm golden glow on your rosy cheeks. Bask in its glory, enjoy its warm kiss while you still inhabit this planet.

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We are starting the week with oil right where it was at the beginning of last week. There is a reason we want to know where large VPOCs develop. They exert an attraction on the market and when we’re around them price tends to misbehave.

After testing up and away from this $49.13 zone, it is imperative we be on watch for a move to test the other side of it. Accepted trade below $48.60 and especially below $48.46 could reignite the bigger downtrend in play.

I have highlighted the mentioned price levels and more on the following charts:

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Monday has all the makings of a wonderfully red horror show. Markets in Crisis, top callers, warm weathers—riots in the European Union. Peak drama, ides of March, hide your wife and pull the children out of class.

Your job is to buy it or wait. So prepare yourself.  Eat well lads and have a good night’s rest, for tomorrow your loins will be the target of predatory algorithms.

Subs, Weekly Strategy Session is out, enjoy.

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I tend to favor the higher time frame trend when my overall context read is neutral. Thus when a neutral bias developed on the Nasdaq last week, I was still more apt to work longs instead of shorts. This was the case even on Friday aka I hit my daily loss limit.

The daily loss limit is a good idea. It’s like a seatbelt. You don’t want to depend on it but on days when you crash, it keeps you from dying.

I had the market in my sights. I know you guys don’t like talking about losers or missed trades but I have to air this one out dammit.

This was my thesis for the week, a bold synopsis of 8 hours of Weekly Strategy Session research boiled down for the executive types:

Bias score 3.18, Neutral. Look for signs of cash inflows early in the week as the new month starts. Be hesitant to chase any strength early in the week due to Wednesday afternoon’s Fed Beige Book and Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll data.

So I had the catalysts on my radar before the week even started. Then by Thursday I had a clear view of the footprints a large, influential trader was making on the market. Here is an except from Methodical Action, a blog piece written Thursday afternoon:

The path of the Nasdaq this week has the look of a master at work. I think back to trading legends and how they make the bulk of their money at inflection points. Someone deep pocketed is making an earnest attempt to influence the market.

My catalyst was in place, a higher time frame seller was already on my radar, and the obvious “Strong Labor Markets Reverse Early Index Gains” play was triggered.

Hitting my daily loss limit doesn’t devastate me, though it does sting. What burns way more was the huge missed opportunity. I work too hard to miss these delicatessens. LET IT BE KNOWN HENCEFORTH—I will ride the next sweet inflection point down like a tan bae on skis.

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Today the Nasdaq worked through my favorite day-type aka the neutral day. For some reason it didn’t have everyone as riled up as it usually does. Nevertheless, it provided some sweet intraday opportunities for mean revision play.

My day trading is at a stage of discretionary action with mechanical execution. Entries types are planned well in advance. I have 9 now, up from about 5 a few months back. Some are variations of what I have observed the greats do while others are complete brainchildren of my own.

Many times I have been told to create my own trading ideas. It would frustrate me because I simply wanted to be told, “do A + B to earn C”. Anything worth doing is not that simple. Or at the least, it’s only that simple for a short period of time before regulation, arbitrage, or some other force eliminates it.

I am finding my own trade ideas generate the biggest returns per trade. What a blessing!

Swing trading has been a slow earner for me this year but I have managed some good moves. My best performer on the year is another home brewed idea—Sprint. This was based on a giant panel of C-suite banksters nearly all saying to avoid telecoms in 2015. It also had the added essence of the falling wedge chart pattern both Option Addict and I adore.

The same chart pattern the afflicts me with GPRO!…but I digress.

What I am emphasizing on this cold winter afternoon it the importance of thinking for yourself. Embrace your ideas, test them, and reap reward from them. There are few joys better.

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The path of the Nasdaq this week has the look of a master at work. I think back to trading legends and how they make the bulk of their money at inflection points. Someone deep pocketed is making an earnest attempt to influence the market.

The month started with a strong Moday—something to corral the bulls and generate a sense of complacency. Then Tuesday they had to wake to a gap down then a knife lower kind of morning, then the seller backed off, created space.

Wednesday same thing, gap down then knife lower only to again back off, create space. Then today we gap up, push higher, pull back a touch, 1-tick the daily high then WHAM—a motivated move across the entire range puts us neutral. Price pulls back to the opening print then a smooth completion wave. Now we are in a corrective holding pattern waiting to see who blinks.

The net effect is little-to-no-change, but the coordinated, methodical efforts suggest a higher time frame at work here. There were also some concentrated strikes on the Nasdaq 100, where nearly 80% of the stocks confined within it down ticked simultaneously. This force or influence has algorithmic resources.

Watch how we trade in relation to the daily MID 4448.75 for an idea about who ultimately holds control on the session.

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Oil continues to throw down a methodical auction, moving from one reference point to the next. Heading into today, we are on the top end of the weekly range and bulls will have to muster some real strength to keep the commodity moving higher on the week.

Keeping prices above $51 is likely to bode well for the bull cause. Likewise, if sellers can pivot the market below $51 we likely see a quick reversion back to the MCVPOC at $49.13.

These levels are highlighted below:

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The Fed had my back this afternoon, and their Beige Book put a bid in oil prices, effectively generating broad confidence amongst risk takers. My book reversed a cool down three percent on the day to finish a mild thirty one basis points lower.

During the sit I suffered one casualty. BTE not only did not participate alongside the oil rally, it slipped. Losers will not be tolerated. It goes to show the mixed nature of this industry group.

GoPro exists simply to frustrate. We all know a flood of competition is chasing this first-to-market mover. But they’re tech and for some reason I keep a space in my heart for technological ideas born in the USA. Thus I bear the burns of this twisted trading instrument.

Apple seems to hold the keys to the market. The Nasdaq is grabbing headlines, Apple is a major piece of the Nasdaq, and Apple is coiled up tighter than the inside of a baseball. Watch how this one breaks to have an idea about where the market is headed.

Oil and Apple—everything else is just a distraction.

In other news, SINA might just have what it takes to put me through to the second round of iBankCoin’s March Madness tournament. It is time for the Far East to rise!

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