Thu Jun 6, 2013 3:23pm ESTComments Off on Bought $TSLA and I Like Burritos
It has been a very interesting week in the markets thus far, and the bounce we saw off the lower gap gives us a sense of the demand present for equities. I don’t like many charts out going into Friday, but a few stand out.
I bought shares of TSLA – I want to see the stock rise soon as we’re dealing with a momentum situation. Without momentum this name gets dangerous fast.
I like China stocks of the burrito variety. They shrugged this correction off well as a whole. My favorite is HMIN and I bought more.
I’m still about 50 percent cash, but I want to get involved in case the market decides it wants to test the all-time high again. Hey, I’ve seen crazier.
On losing days, my old routine used to be calling up some buddies and having a few beers, chalking it up as another hard lesson from the market. I can always have this mentality because the money, I don’t depend on it. I’ve always been told consistent profitability in the markets requires a low stress money situation. I agree. I absolutely can’t imagine being in a financial pinch and trading. As for the jumpers, they’re simply cowards who can’t swing the poor life, thrift shopping and such.
Today really wasn’t as bad as I’m making it out to be, but frustrations were quickly compounded and before I knew it I was going ‘Full Gibson’ beating people over the head with rocks and such. I played back the tape of my futures trading just now and the mistakes didn’t start until I made it about me.
I made it about me. Not the markets, because some crazy shit went down that rattled me. Let me explain:
I took planned trades, trades with statistical advantages. The first two win. Good start.
The second trade takes off as soon as I get it in, looking great, gets to my exit, prints my target a few times, I don’t get filled and it slams down and takes me out break even.
At this point things are looking REALLY choppy and moving REALLY fast. For the next 30 minutes all hell breaks loose, Raul taking funky ass unplanned trades. Good God, it looks like I fired a machine gun at the screen.
Funny thing is, my last trade, a long…something was still firing in the old noggin…my exit looks like the most beautiful short entry you’ve ever seen. The floor fell out seconds later for five handles, then many many more.
This all happens very fast you see. I lost sight of the market. I started having a very real and very strong feeling that the algorithms knew exactly where my stops and targets were, and they were fucking me. That’s paranoia…fear based nonetheless. Me, me, me, that’s what my internal dialogue sounded like.
Recognizing this, I cut almost all my risk out and pressed my cash to 65 percent.
Some names I just couldn’t let go of. Here they are, presented by size (biggest-to-smallest):
AAPL, CREE, IMMR, RGLD, HMIN, DANG, and FB
I also hold some cheap lotto tickets in HPQ weekly calls and NFLX.
My fate as a trader lies entirely on backing off when conditions don’t favor my style of trading. It’s something everyone has wrestled with I’m sure. It’s never hit me this hard in my life, even though I’ve taken much larger financial blows. I was furious.
It’s a learning experience as always, but this one left a lasting impression.
I’m feeling very, very angry right now. Anyone who trades these markets, looking like a stoic, is either a psychopath or a studied philosopher. I get happy when I follow my plan and make money, and I get raging mad when I deviate from it.
Let’s run down the moves, shall we?
Early on, I engaged the market repeatedly, and donated back my last two days’ gains. Back to ground zero. Kewl. Avoid market rage, don’t engage.
– I knew once this market made up its mind directionally, it would be big. The morning built up a ton of energy. I wasn’t there when the move happened because I was tossing my phone down the stairway.
FSYS, SNE, JKS, NBG – I cut them all, they all lost me money. NBG never made sense to begin with, even with the 20 percent profit I scaled off.
LULU Lemon calls, purchased at the peak of the great spike of June the fourth, sold, at a loss of course.
Now listen closely: these above positions haven’t even proven themselves wrong yet. I have proven myself wrong. And I’m angry.
I’ll be going for a walk now, perhaps talk to some pigeons and see if they have a message from Nicola Tesla. After such time, I will come back and reassess these markets with a more charged up mind.
Something is happening to me, something I’ve planned and worked toward all year long. The budding ideas are beginning to bloom. I’m becoming a multi-pronged trader. The tape, it only needs to move, and I’ll be there, making money from it.
I do things, quite majestically. Take for example my NFLX weekly option trade. I bought two units early, scaled one off for profit during that precarious double top intraday, and held one through a bit of a drawdown. This option now stands to make a great deal of money in the morning. The profit taking gives the confidence to stomach the pullback, at least for me.
My Google runner, I sold it. It was worth more, and it may rip tomorrow without me, but I avoided turning it into a loss.
This LULU long may still be a loser. I’ll keep quiet about that seeing as I nearly top ticked it with 3 calls. You’re never supposed to lose on the internet.
I made money in the S&P futures today. I can’t post these trades live as they require 100 percent focus and risk management.
My swing portfolio lost money today mostly, but it boasts a large cash position and some green shoots. Not just pure red. NBG is my current biggest loser. New longs include JKS and FSYS. Cash resides at 33 percent.
New long JKS was practically a mechanical entry. PPT upgraded it to buy, the hybrid score shot up, and it has a look I know and love.
The green Tuesday streak is over, but I still stand to make a great sum of money tomorrow. The fade exhibited on my longs only serves as proof that the sellers are in fact afraid and behaving overly aggressive.
Notice: As fast as these buds bloom they can be chopped to bits by a careless lawnmower operator. It would not be the first time I’ve had fresh ideas minced by the motored blades of the market. No one ever said it was a safe journey!
I only entered into the S&P futures once today, buying a pullback and attempting to inflict pain on the short sellers. The trade earned two handles on two contracts but once the sellers defended their territory, the land north of 1645, I backed off the action and simply observed.
I had a trigger right at the open to go long, but I was distracted buying weekly calls in NFLX and LULU. They’re both about flat currently, and I have the distinct feeling I may take some heat before these trades can play out.
I closed out that aching ACHN position, it could still pull off a Hail Mary bounce recovery, but I really don’t feel like sticking around to find out in this overall choppy tape.
I took a 1/3 scale in DANG up here near recent swing highs.
Now I’m essentially sitting on my hands, waiting for the market to play out.
A couple of my positions came very close to stopping out today, but the late-day strength managed to buoy the share prices of SNE and ACHN above where I wanted them. This can either be seen as good or bad, considering my nubile derriere is now exposed to the ghoulish villains from cell block six overnight. So I’m either deferring a loss or avoiding unnecessarily being stopped out. Either way, we stick to the plan, yes yes?
I was reminded by my good friend @elizamae via twitter of this old post concerning a very significant price zone. A price zone we tested today. How quickly my mind forgets old thoughts, I blame the ADD. Nevertheless, it’s worth a reread as we swim in these waters.
A humble tip of the hat to you, good sir.
The only other action today was buying some GOOG weekly calls near the LOD. I scaled one off and the other is nicely green and held close to my chest overnight. It’s mine! You can’t have it. I bought Google because it’s a support play, much like we’re looking for these prices in the big indices to behave as support. Therefore, I can extrapolate the index behavior out to the stock and allow the large tides to assist in dictating my decision process when drilled down to Google stock. Cool right?
My swing portfolio was down 1.2 percent today and cash levels are near 40 percent.
Do you like the transient manner in which I avoided today’s AWK dump off? After over two years of being invested in the name, benefitting both from the large coupon AND the capital appreciation, I simply cut it loose. This type of thing happens all the time over here.
Is it luck?
I’ve always considered myself lucky. I walked away from a pretty gnarly Cessna crash a few years back.
But it’s not luck. It is marrying the knowledge that matters and hanging out with it every night. It’s foraging through The PPT, aimlessly, for hours on end. Reading everyone’s commentary here sure helps. Pay attention.
Moving on to this landslide close, there’s your sell in MAY! That was 30 handles from the high of the day. I got stopped out of my NANO trade amidst the selloff, but my impunity in ES_F continued. I just had to try the mean revision, and actually made a point and a half going LONG mid death spiral.
I’m telling you, I should buy some lottery tickets for real today, I have the Midas touch.
After seeing the selling pick up tenacity I covered and bought some TZA. Who am I not to join gentleman RaginCajun on TZA? On this birthday!?! I had to. Plus it’s like my Ambien for the weekend. Quickly: Raul trusts no pharmaceuticals, hence his distrust for resident drug dealer @halfbloodpope. I’m really not sure why I’m talking in the third person, via my pen name.
Some of my stocks held up well considering the carnage. New long ACHN didn’t chit the bed, which is sometimes expected of newborns. DDD was ugly, but damn, I’ve seen worse. I’ll probably see worse come Monday.
I have the China PMI to look forward to this weekend with HMIN and DANG. And I have SNE. I even have a dash of NBG. I like taking my chips to another country and gambling elsewhere while the USA gets sold in May.
My cash rose to 30 percent.
It seems like June is going to whip about something awesome. I hope so. Enjoy your weekend, eat a good meal, make love to your wife, for we battle come Monday.
Fri May 31, 2013 12:01pm ESTComments Off on The Money Is Out There
Are you man enough to take it?
There’s a cloud of electricity around Sir Raul this morning as I trade with near impunity. It may just be these storms rolling through the D, turning the entire landscape to a shade of green that can only best be described as ELECTRIC.
Big, big day thus far. Let’s run down the moves:
10 trades in the ES, 10 winners. Flawless victory.
Sold 1/3 NBG at the open + 20 percent. My ancestors are treating me right. I’m a decedent of ZEUS.
Sold my NFLX lotto ticket at AM swing high, made a G.
Bought more SNDK lotto tickets, let it ride.
I closed out my RVLT. I never love this name and wanted my 5 percent gain. It could still go.
I bought ACHN from fly’s homeless post last night.
I bought SNE.
Let me elaborate on SNE. It has a bearish-slanted head and shoulders pattern. Very bearish. The NIEKKEI had a tough week. I think they’re going to drop the hammer on shorts. How dare they question their economic experiment! Japan doesn’t play pimp. This is my rebound play to get involved with the action.
I like my China names going into a weekend of Chinese PMI data. They’ll look to get global attention this week, I feel. I’m long DANG and HMIN.
Yes, there was a selloff this afternoon. Indeed, the NIKKEI is doing scary things. Sure, there’s lots of uncertainty in the bond markets. And certainly, we’re knee deep in month end foolishness. But why not have fun with it?
I know everyone’s different in their approach and I respect that. The buy and hold investor who got involved any time in the last 5 years is probably crushing, if he picked good companies. The swinger who is patiently waiting for cleaner conditions is probably preserving a nice chunk of earned capital, waiting for her next opportunity.
I’m trying a little bit of everyone’s soup.
So far, my first two attempts at this option game have appeared well timed, SNDK and NFLX. I’ve taken scales in both. Aside from the paper gains I’m sitting on, which are very real money, I have a free ride on my lottery tickets, silly contracts set to expire tommorow. There’s something to be said about this approach. If either one of these continue higher tomorrow, we’re talking about 30-40 percent gains. I never considered such speculation until “The Fly” brought OptionAddict into the mix.
I traded the spooz so poorly this morning, I can’t wait to review the trades while slamming my thumb in a door jam. I need my pointer finger for clicking.
I HAVE MY CHINA FIX: Long shares of HMIN and DANG
Let me talk about DANG a bit. My good friend @stockcats suggested the name via fortune cookie. One thing stood out to me, the near geometric perfection of the triangle up here. The Chinese, they love structure, symmetry. Their leaders will point to this chart whilst we sleep and demand it resolve higher, as a show of power and formation.
I nibbled on the little bank that could, NBG. I can’t pass up a good joke, even if it’s on me.
See my Dee’s? DDD looks fantastic up here. So do AAPL SNDK CREE and NFLX. FB doesn’t look too shabby down there, either.
I’m feeling lucky, so I’m pressing my bets all over the place. I can assure you some of them are wrong. Until we decidedly trade lower, I’ll keep dwelling in the speculative components of the market. But hell I’m young, I can afford to lose it ALL. Fuck it.
Should I fall square on my face tomorrow, this post will serve as a jagged reminder of my insolence to the cautionary winds.
The market did the ole’ bad data, positive reaction thing, which according to my matrix is the most bullish market activity out there.
This led to a short squeeze across the board. Which is nice. Our first attempt out of the major balance area from ~ 1651 – 1641 is to the upside. So far the profile is establishing a P-shape which tells me aggressive buying activity, likely shorts covering, drove price higher and now we’re balancing out. The question on everyone’s mind now should be, will new buyers step in and initiate new longs? Or was the action only temporary before we resume a path lower?
I can’t call it. The market will. Watch $ES 1659.50 as your barometer to the former, and 1652.50 for the latter.
I took some profits in my SNDK weekly options because, well, they expire tomorrow! Awesome. It’s kind of fun to put a timer on your trades, when you’re right. That being said, I’m holding one runner into this attempted breakout.
I bought NBG. This is probably dumb, but MANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN, I gave serious consideration to buying that last dip. Danger: revenge trade.
What else, what else…ah yes, I sold a bit or RGLD exactly as planned. You must love seeing a good plan play out for old Raul.
I sold OMEX, it looks like it might roll.
I booked ¼ of my $DDD long. I’ll always take 5 percent home.
I lost money in the futures today, taking stupid trades.
