Saturday, November 28, 2015
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$TINY Purchase


There is an element of chase to the small caps this week.  When not much movement is happening, that which does move easily gathers attention.  It is like being at a dud of a venue, full of bearded men, when suddenly a bus drops off 30 rambunctious coeds from the nearby university.  Well, for now, my newest position is land of the duds–I bought some TINY shares.

I have watched this stock for months, oddly enough, eagerly waiting for some volume to come in.  Well, the party is not starting.  And it may never transpire.  But if it does, I will be here, shrink ray in tote, ready to ride the wave of the future in nano computing.

Something about binary being expanded from 0 and 1, to 0,1, or both 0 and 1 simultaneously.  That’s the game TINY is playing.  Supposedly it is a really big deal, like bigger than the latest biotech breakthrough.

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The Tesla Recall Is A Non-Event


We are not talking about Toyota here people.  Tesla is on the frontier of technology.  Little setbacks like a faulty seat belt will not destroy this stock.  Now if we had a recall associated with their battery then look out.

Any weakness associated with this news is a gift for anyone waiting to take entry into the greatest technology company in the world.  This will blow over faster than Don Trumps bangs without hairspray.

Aside: I am getting super bullish on General Motors…

Full Disclosure: Long TSLA shares with no intent of selling, ever.

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Got My Retail Fix


I probably should have just bought Amazon and called it a day.  But then again, a good friend of mine was beating that rhetoric into my head over a year ago and I ignored him.  Therefore, in my futile attempt at using my own brain I picked up two stocks that I will hold through this retail quell.

Yesterday, after posting stellar earnings and quarterly revenues over 100 BILLION dollars, I bought Walmart.

This morning, in the wake of a Singles Day blowout, I bought Alibaba.

Both positions constitute long term holds unless they completely deteriorate into muderholes like Go (fuck yourselves) Pro.

Now that I have affixed exposure to retail, I will head over to Amazon and start Christmas shopping o_0

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Alibaba Is A Seedy Version of Amazon


This earnings season we saw the Amazon effect pulverize tons of retail stocks.  The latest victim is DICKS.  All these stores are losing pricing power.  Investors have responded by rage buying AMZN shares.  Who else drives deflation and can thrive in an Amazon World?

The distribution center retailers.  Costco will succeed.  You shop inside their distribution centers.  What a twist!  Walmart will win.  They have a huge web presence and massive DCs.  Jeff Macke says Target should convert most of their stores into DCs if they want to be around in a decade.

Amazon will succeed.  They are leading the way in DC automation.  They are building a huge center in downtown Detroit and hardly hiring anyone.  EFFICIENCY!

I think Alibaba succeeds also.  This depends on the consumer falling in love with Ali Express.  Ali Express does not have the business-to-business feel of regular Alibaba, it sells China wares a la carte.  It is literally the Chinatown of the internet.  Every city has a Chinatown, why should the internet be any different?

I have not held share of BABA in a long time.  However, I know skepticism is high because last year they peaked out after Singles Day.  I like when sentiment like that resonates.  It helps me catch people flat footed.

I cannot chase Amazon; I can’t do it.  You do it.  But I like the idea of taking Walmart and Alibaba long term positions to expose myself to the major retail transition theme.

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Netflix Is A Freak Beast


I have zero intention of fighting the 45 degree ascent in the markets as long as Netflix is putting up big numbers.  This stock is insane–up about 12% over the last two days.  It is literally trading with impunity since the latest dip.

My model got one thing right.  It calls for a sharp bounce at some point during the week.  The only problem is the last two instances have seen the sharp bounce start Monday morning.  That is not exactly helpful.

Nevertheless, I have been on the right side of the tape all morning.  My systems are back to 100% operational.

The mothership is a force in the marketplace.  A fast and nimble boat that rapidly adjusts to the changing conditions.  Netflix is like an ambulance clearing a pathway down a traffic infested street.  Follow the leader.


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Walmart Out With Strong Earnings, Looks Buyable


Shares of Walmart [NYSE: WMT] are trading higher this morning following the Q3 earnings results.  The company reported EPS $1.03, adjusted EPS $0.99 vs $0.98 estimate.  Sales were $116.8B Vs estimated $117.79B.  No big deal, they had over one hundred billion dollars in sales last quarter, lol.

Anyhow, after attending day 1 of Jeff’s online Investor Conference last night, I wanted to take a longer term look at Walmart.  2015 has been brutal for Walmart shareholders and ‘retail is dead’ is the new war cry of bears.  However, when you zoom out to the weekly chart, we are finally coming back and checking the 12-year consolidation that took place.  I like the idea of tucking some WMT shares into the investment portfolio this week and just ignoring them:


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Netflix Is Invincible


Just when you think the market could dive lower, Netflix puts in a +7% day.

The morning showed early signs of selling but just the typical slow walk.   The new normal. Buyers rested on the bid, accumulating, before shifting to full power long initiation this afternoon. Now my model is just a few points from turning in a loss on the week and I have been working the wrong side of the tape.

Resisting the trend is futile. There is insatiable demand for stocks, especially the real tech hero stocks. Add Apple to the roster—straight ripping off an Exodus oversold reading Friday.

We still have Wednesday Fed minutes, but this action is hardly bearish. I suppose I will get long again just before the next ferocious downside move.

If you are like me, completely befuddled by the 2-12 day time frame, then you might want to join me in listening to Option Addict redo his investor conference this week. I am pretty sure it will be recorded if you cannot attend live. SIGN UP HERE

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Facebook Will Dump GoPro Unless It Starts Putting Out


GoPro needs to find a way to convince Facebook to buy them. That appears to be their strategy with these immersive 360 degree videos they are exclusively sharing with Facebook—court the king with some jester work.

In the meantime their stock is making new all-time lows again today. This has become commonplace for the strap-on camera maker. Their shares trade like they do not even deserve a 20 handle.

If you own this stock you basically are gambling on a buyout. In theory their 360 degree cameras are a compliment to Oculus Rift. Imagine setting a place for the spherical six-camera ring at Thanksgiving dinner. Then you can pipe in relatives from anywhere via their virtual headset. As much as I try and paint this as a cool innovation—my vision just is not clear—it sounds lame and only useful for porn.

Regardless, I own this stock as part of the GARP portfolio, and I draw a thick black X on the calendar every day as I count down to the January reshuffle. Stupid gadget stock is killing my performance.

UPDATE: As of November 10th, you can buy a Samsung Oculus Rift face mask for $99 bucks:

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The Thin and Low Zone


NASDAQ futures are priced to gap down into Thursday—the third gap down on the week. The overnight session featured elevated range and volume. It started out balanced then sellers pushed in and worked price down to a new low of the week. At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came out worst than expected. The initial reaction is selling.

After a rough week for oil we will hear the crude/distillate report today—a day later than usual due to Veterans Day. We also have a Monthly Budget Statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. I examined it closely yesterday evening.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work a gap-and-go down. Look for a liquidation run down to test the 4600 century mark then look for responsive buyers. Buyers attempt to work price back up into value above but struggle to regain 4624.75 which sets up a roll and continued move lower. Extended target is 4580.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and work up through 4624.75. Trade is sustained above 4620.75 setting up a gap fill up to 4631.75. From there look for a rotation back up to the high volume point of control at 4638.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers close the gap up to 4631.75 early and work up to the top end of value around 4650. They set their sights on overnight high 4653.25 for a test above before two way trade ensues.



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Fleece The College Student


Death and taxes are certain, and most professions require some form of higher education.  You want to be a professional, right?  Then plan to buy overpriced books from John Wiley & Sons Inc.

Dollars earmarked for buying stupid-expensive books are dolled out quarterly via the student loan program.  Even if some college students are smart enough to find work-around tactics for floating through class sans book, they are in the stark minority.  The stock is consolidating down into a nice support level and looks easy to manage here:


College is designed to suck as many dollars out of these loan programs as is possible.  Yes, it is also a place where people learn and prepare to be a professional.  But these days everything you need to know is online.  We are democratizing information and I am a huge fan of this approach to learning, even if it does not carry the same credibility as a degree.  Show them your worth by generating net worth.

Since we are on the topic of learning, for less money then you would spend on course materials for Intro To  Biology, you can learn to trade for a living from our resident educator Jeff Kohler aka The Option Addict.  Click here for the details.

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