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Bearish bets have been made against Canada Goose by animal-loving sapiens

Happy early Earth Day lads!

Floods coming.

And until then our job is to help every animal live their best life, at least until mother nature decides to indiscriminately wipe out millions of mammals with floods.  The quants inside Exodus are firing off broad market caution flags that have not been seen in years.  Our only contextual ‘tell’ going into the week has been the PHLX Semiconductor index, which is down more than -4% in Thursday afternoon trade.

These objective data points had me shopping for a bearish swing trade for the first time since June 2017 when I took a loss betting against the NASDAQ.

April 2018 RAUL is different than the June 2017 model.  I have developed a deeper empathy for the animal spirit, in all its forms.  I have not traded individual stocks since I swore off the bastards back in 2015.  Yes, I have been at this game a long time lads.  My archives run deep inside the hallowed halls of iBankCoin, a place that was once patronized only by proper ladies and gentlemen.

But I do invest.  I invest using a method I call faith-based investing which basically means I have unwavering belief in a company and their mission and will buy their equity every quarter with no intention of selling—ever—riding the shares right to the pearly gates and leaving them behind for my kin.  Obviously I have to be extremely selective about these stocks because this is an expensive habit.  Tesla is one.  Twitter is another.  CRISPR, AI, and quantum computing themes have me in a few other stocks I shall not mention. Oh, and I also keep a cache of crypto-bucks (all the bitcoins, ethereum, banana coins).

I got enemies though.  I can’t be one of these ‘everything is awesome, always take the high road’ leaders.  I commend those who can.  I have enemies.  I should have washed my hands before I began typing this.  They are covered in soil.   I spent the lunch hour caring for my flower beds.

With dirt on thine hands I am letting it be known the CEO of Canada Goose and his team of murderous trappers are an enemy to RAUL.  As of today I have taken bearish positions against the their company’s equity.

There is more to this trade then faith or karma.  First, the price chart.  I don’t like it.  It reminds me of GoPro circa November 2014.  Great run up after the IPO, consolidation, attempted breakout higher preceding what would become a long, long, march lower.  Much…much…lower ::said aloud with Liam Neeson effect::

Next there is the basic b*tch meter.  These coats are worn by basic b*tches, both genders.  There is a small market of people who actually wear the coats for arctic explorations, the rest are worn by young urban professionals whose dogs have their own instragram accounts.

Thirdly, we are about to enter summer.  The farmers almanac is calling for a dry and hot summer in the north—one that presses extreme heats into late August.  Ergo, nobody is going to buy coats filled with boiled geese bits and dog fur.

Let it be known that I intend to keep bearish positions in place on $GOOS through summer’s end.  I have also joined the PETA awareness campaign against Canada Goose.  We simply ask that they stop the use of animal fur and stop supporting the inhumane trapping industry.  There are plenty of faux alternatives that work just as well, if not better.

That is all I have to say.  Robots are leaning bearish.  My contextual cue is leaning bearish.  And faith-based investing methodology (which cannot be rationally explained) has me choosing $GOOS as a means of extracting fiat currency from the financial markets.

Be well and again, happy Earth Day fellow earth citizens.

RAUL SANTOS, April 19th, 2018

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A permabulls take on Tesla

I have an optimistic bias towards Tesla and anything else Elon Musk touches.  Unlike a journalist, I have told you my bias up front.  Now, let’s look at a few relevant details regarding Tesla.

The bonds everyone is talking about, with the increasing premium?  They are still being serviced.  They do not expire until 2021.  Also news flash: interest rates are going up.  Did you happen to look at $TLT during Monday’s bloodbath?  It was red.  Welcome to the Jerome Powell Federal Reserve.

The Model 3 production numbers that are being repeatedly thrown under the bus, they have issued more than 20,000 VINS.  A Model 3 typically delivers within 9 days of being issued a VIN number.  Here is a Twitter account you can follow to track VINS on your own, without some negative spin being added to it:

Are the Model 3 production numbers below forecasts?  Yes.  But behind every VIN number is a person elated to receive a Tesla, a person who will spread the word of Tesla faster than any traditional disciple ever could.  BEHOLD:

I wonder how much BMW or General Motors or Toyota spent on advertising last year and how many times those add dollars yielded the kind of brand excitement shown above…

Regarding the Model S recall, I believe our very kind and benevolent Leader addressed the media hullabaloo surrounding the recall sufficiently:

I am not here to convince you Tesla is going to succeed and be the biggest company in the world, surpassing Apple slowly, that all at once.  I already believe.  And I have my money where my mouth is, long a considerable amount of $TSLA shares.

The value I can add, aside from being the loudest bull when it matters most, and otherwise quiet, is to show you how I expect $TSLA price action to play out over the next several months.

Here is how I envision Tesla price action playing out, going forward:

Is the above chart accurate?  Perfect?  Not really.  These are broad brush strokes.  With any luck, share price will be compressed for many years, allowing me to continue accumulating shares.  But I think this gives you a sense of my mentality.  I am extremely long term.  The shares I am buying will not be sold.  They will be passed onto my kin.

This is my take as a permabull.  We are in the middle of a negative news cycle, and journalists from all publications are showing their true colors—they despise the hope and change Tesla and Elon bring.

Fine.

I will continue to be a voice of hope in the sea of negativity.  Also I bought more $TSLA today.

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A Closer Look at The Tesla Price Auction

Since none of you care about the NASDAQ, or how to navigate its waves and gyrations, maybe you will pay attention if we talk about how Tesla is trading.

All eyes are on Tesla because the third quarter is over, and they only produced 260 handmade Model 3 cars.  Also there are lurid rumors Elon may be leave his CEO post soon, perhaps to spend more time launching big fucking rockets into space.

Tuesday morning bulls caught an upgrade from Morgan Stanley, who issued a modest price target raise to $379 from $317.

Let us now take notice of what all the above information is.  It is all news bits.  The first came from Tesla, the rumor is internet chatter, and the upgrade is from a firm that manages other people’s wealth.

How do you draw an objective decision from all of it?  Do you feel confident taking action based off of words from other people?

You can go find this out on your own if you want, or you can just sit down and grab a pencil—trades based off of soundbites will not be consistent, and eventually you will lose all your money.

What we need is an objective way to assess the behavior of Tesla that is not static.  We need it to change as events continue to unfold.

Enter auction theory.

Every real transaction must go through the exchange, in the case of Tesla that exchange is the NASDAQ.  When the orders occur time, price, quantity of shares, and whether the order occurred at the bid or the offer.

We use this information to build charts.  Most charts are time-based, and the two charts displayed below are time-based.  The first is a daily chart.  It also is noted with all relevant auction notes, including a method of scoring the auction:

The second chart is hourly.  It is mainly to see where the nearby magnets are.  Powerful ‘magnets’ are areas that are likely to attract price.  These can be seen as zones of heavy volume.  Auction theory expects these areas of heavy volume to be revisited.  Old open gaps are another popular magnet.  The nearest magnet is just a touch above Tuesday’s close price.  It is an open gap left behind last Friday:

At this point the assessment is clear and objective.  The model score is 2.7 which is medium bear.  It is barely medium bear.  From 2.8-3.2 we are neutral.

Since we are bearish we have some simple levels that will tell us new information about whether we are wrong.  If sellers do not defend last Friday’s open gap at 356.86 if/when we close it, we might be wrong.  If sellers do not defend our key Fibonacci retracement around 367.40 then we are wrong.

If price goes back down and probes below the prior swing low 335.64 then we might be right, and a quick trip down to the open gap at 326.25 is in order.  Then we reassess the auction.  Maybe next we test back to the heavy volume zone at 312.14, and so on.

The auction creates a continuous dialogue that is completely separated from the noise of the world.  It you can focus on the auction only, you will find yourself in a better position to consistently execute.

Your job as a trader is to tell the story of the auction and nothing more.  This aids your actions which are calculated and mindful.  No hearsay, just sturdy logic.

This is trading.  It can seem detached from humanity.  I can assure you it is not.

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CRISPR genome editing science heads to China; patent granted for Cas9 single-guide gene editing

Are you climate change deniers happy?  It was fine when paranoid Americans cast doubt upon the 4th estate because by-and-large, major media outlets shill their toxic ideologies to teevee watchers.  But then you turned your pitch forks on scientists, and that is when you made a fatal mistake.  Our best DNA editing research is moving offshore.  Intella Therapeutics announced Monday that China’s State Intellectual Property Office plans to grant the company a patent covering the CRISPR/Cas9 single-guide gene editing methods and compositions.

Intella [ticker: $NTLA] can now operate in China, free to explore the powers of DNA editing for the explicit benefit of their people.

As you might imagine, the prospect of taking CRISPR research out from beneath the thumb of a collectively ignorant populace and their authoritarian leader is creating quite a bit of excitement in this small corner of the biotech industry.  Your gods cannot stops shares of DNA editing companies like SGMO, NTLA, and EDIT from racing higher*.

*writer’s note: I am long SGMO, NTLA, and EDIT

So like most breakthroughs in science, the crowd is being proven wrong.  Natural forces are prevailing.

In other CRISPR news, Sangamo (which sounds like a nice Italian name) successfully raised $72.5 million dollars on Wednesday via a secondary stock offering.  This secondary was received surprisingly well by investors.  Just over 24 hours after issuing 10,000,000 shares at a price of $7.25 the stock is trading over $9.  This offering speaks to the overall health of equity markets.  It also tells investors that $SGMO has their affairs in order because successfully completing a secondary is a shit-ton of work, especially for a small outfit like Sangamo.

So there you have it.  Despite the primates in congress and their apish behavior, science is prevailing. DNA editing research shall press onward…in China.

Long live science

Long live discovery

No more living in the past in summary!

 

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RAUL BUY: DICKS

Woke up this morning wanting more dicks so I went to the open market and procured more $DKS.

My first tranche of $DKS was purchased in the $50s like an asshole, back in January.  But I feel better emotionally after throwing more money at this losing trade.

What’s on your agenda today?

 

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BREAKING: Elon Musk Does Not Wear Underpants

Praise and Glory to our Visionary and Leader, the venerable and diplomatic Elon Musk (Praise)!  The corporate Twitter account for Tesla, a company so prolific, so disruptive that it strikes fear into the core of Detroit’s ugly and iconic General Motors headquarters, the very corporate twitter account that regularly informs Us (the chosen people) about our future as citizens on Spaceship Earth—the Tesla twitter account opened up to take questions ahead of their Tuesday shareholder meeting.

BEHOLD:

Now, say three Hail Elons for peering with lust at the sexy corporate logo.  It is okay that it looks like a vagina.  You are forgiven.

NEXT, look what this surgeon from the very gender-neutral city of New York asked Our Last Corporate Hope.  He asked an intangible corporate entity if they wear boxers or briefs!  Corporations are considered individuals by tax code, but they don’t wear cloths Roland, silly goof!

Look at this tweet, would you just look at it?

Then, something magical happened.  As east coast believers in The Mission of our Leader said their evening prayers to Space X and The Boring drill, His Holiness emerged on Twitter, a civic forum operated out of goodwill, and said the most amazing thing ever. EVER!  He does not wear underwear.

Elon (Praise and Glory) then clarified his position, confirming to the world that he does not give a singular fuck about the norms of society, especially those that pertain to dress code.

There are two types of people in this world.  Those who follow the rules, bend the knee to  authoritarian rule, then there are the ones crazy enough to think they can change the world.  Are you going to be this asshole?

And call you wife ‘Mom’?  Or are you going to build time machines and cavort around the world with the finest actresses and supermodels?

You have to learn the art of not giving a fuck if you want to stand a chance as an independent business hustler.  They want you broken, saddled with debt, consuming out of necessity, and plugged into their corporate matrix.

Are you crazy enough to not wear underpants?  Our Leader is, and shares of $TSLA are at record highs.  Think about it.

Writer’s note:  I am long Tesla shares and will not sell.  Instead more will be purchased, quarterly, in perpetuity, and the shares will be bestowed upon my litter of children.  Also I love underwears, especially from Fruit of the Loom. 

The roaring ’20s are about to be liiiiiiiit.

 

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Sangamo Announces Collaboration with Pfizer; CRISPR Stocks Rage Higher

Thursday morning shares of Sangamo Therapeutics, a company that tinkers with DNA in pursuit of immortality [ticker: $SGMO] opened up more than +50% after announcing a strategic collaboration with Pfizer.

Let me put this into hip-hop terms so you social media types can understand it.  Pfizer has all that pharmaceutical money—$19.45 billion dollars in cash, according to Exodus.

Pfizer generated $14.08 billion in cash flow over the last 12 months.  They are the third biggest cash generator in the drug dealing game.

Data courtesy of Exodus Market Intelligence

Pfizer is the Dr. Dre of selling drugs to the masses, if compared to the 2017 Forbes hip-hop top earning artists:

If you were to say, take a lesser know hip-hop artist, like a scrappy white dude from Detroit, and put him on a track with a hip-hop legend, instantly the outsider is legitimized.

The scenario described above is what has fueled a two-day rally in $SGMO that spiked shares up by more than +85%.  On Friday other CRISPR names, which were discussed in these hallowed halls earlier this year, began popping alongside Sangamo.

Full Disclosure: The writer currently owns $SGMO and other CRISPR plays

CRISPR is an acronym that stands for clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats which basically means they can chop up and rebind living DNA.  By doing so they might be able to cure major diseases—CURE—not treat.

Cures are worth way more than treatments.  This is the extent of my understanding of the biotechnology.  It was presented to me by my top scientist and since then the science has been affirmed, without provocation, by the most intelligent medical professional I know.  It was also discussed by the one the the Exodus greats, JungleeGirl.

There was a major battle between UC Berkeley and MIT over who owns patents on the use of CRISPR.  As of today, the east coast thugs at MIT own the patented rights.  Seeing two well-known institutions caught up in a feverish dispute really makes it seem like there is a fire somewhere, behind all the smoke.

Then I began applying some analogous techniques passed down by the Option Addict, and noticed the entire space looked aligned with discouragement. If that assumption holds true, then the moves happening this second week of the fifth month under our new authoritarian regime could be just the beginning.

This is my top theme trade of 2017.  Everything else I own falls into five categories:

  1. Systematically chosen by Exodus
  2. Outsourced to The Fly
  3. Super boring dividend stocks
  4. Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader)
  5. dicks, everywhere (see Section III)

CRISPR stocks are catching a bid across the board as investors voted ‘yes’ for an immortality elixir, the biggest attempt yet to alter what many consider to be fate.

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The Rich Are Still Spending; Coach Smashes Earnings; The Met Ball Was Decadent As Ever

How eloquent of Coach to report earnings the morning after #MetBall2017 and best Wall Street expectations, on a Tuesday!?  Shares of $COH are up more than 10% and trading at a new 52-week high after a first quarter rife with discretionary spending by our beloved upper class.

Coach Q3 EPS $0.46 vs $0.44 Est, Sales $995M vs $1.02B Est

Consider these earnings a small addenda to the belief that the United States is entering a period of economic prosperity not seen since the early ’20s.

Writer’s note: My homies and I are long $COH as part of the Exodus Q1 Top-Down Analysis (Annual) portfolio.  However, this is somewhat irrelevant due to the remaining holding period (11 more months before next adjustment).

Enough of the boring Wall Street guff, here are some scenes from Monday evening’s gala, enjoy.

Emma Roberts, goodness:

Bella Hadid in a stunning Alexander Wang dress, politely posing with Kendall Jenner, Wiz Khalifa, and ASAP Rocky:

Australian model and Orange Is The New Black acrtress Ruby Rose stole the spotlight with her ruffled frock, designed by Burberry.  Note the matching man-human arm piece, brilliant composition:

Rihanna flew up from Barbados with a complicated dress that certainly made eating dinner tricky:

And finally, the couple of the night (so adorbs) was Selina Gomez and TheWeeknd (thas his name).  Selina rocked a custom-made Coach dress.  Very nice, very clean:

As you can see, the event was a success for high-end brands, especially Coach, who managed to ultimately win Met Gala’s unofficial fashion show by picking the hottest couple of the night.

All very gay, all very bullish.  Maybe you buy Coach shares today, yes? Get good price before it is gone.

Or not.  Either way, Coach put some nice numbers on the scoreboard Tuesday that will go a long way toward this company reasserting their earnings growth trajectory.

BULLISH

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Visibly Shaken FCC Commissioner: Your Most Intimate Online Information Could Be Harvested And Sold

Authoritarians have a good way of spinning their creepy actions enough for their believers to justify an attack on their human rights.  So far, that is the case with the republican-led campaign to repeal Obama-era internet privacy rules.  Your basic republitard can belch out the talking points about how Google and Facebook already watch everything they do, so what’s it matter if the internet service providers do the same?

Right? What does it matter, what’s another set of hands digging through your private possessions, NOT STEALING ANY OF THEM, but logging their details and selling the information to the highest bidder?

FCC Commissioner Mignon Clyburn laid out a perfect example, one you cheesed burger eating ingrates could comprehend.  WATCH:

Ah yes, the ‘internet of things’ …you remember that phrase?  It describes a time in the not-so-distant future where your thermostat, security cameras, television, refrigerator, for fucked sake your toaster are all pushing little bits of information about you out to the interweb.

This is not good, dude.  When Trump signed away privacy rules that would have stopped Comcast from logging your preferred toaster settings to their evil towers in Philadelphia, he sold you out to faceless corporations, immortal diseases roaming the earth.  Faceless corporations, mind you, who completely control your ability to access the greatest invention of the 21st century, the big information bang, the internet.  Internet service providers control it.  Not Google, not yet at least.

Massachusetts Rep Mike Capuano had some fun with these insane republican measures, referencing his recent online purchase of some undies, which is worth bringing to your attention if for the visuals alone:

Perhaps you are beginning to understand the gravity of our President’s pen strokes Monday, the ones that approved a very Orwellian nightmare, a repeal to privacy rules that Obama worked so hard to bless us with.  Your internet service provider can henceforth mine and measure your every internet move and the FCC is totally freaked out.

STILL BULLISH FOR $VZ $T and $CMCSA

Also, someone mentioned VPN players could become interesting going forward, as internet users seek to protect themselves from the ISP money grubbers.  It’s worth an investigation.  DEVELOPING…

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BEAST MODE: Tesla Trades To New All Time High After Record Setting Quarter

Shares of the world’s greatest technology company, Tesla, are achieving new heights Monday after the company’s CEO, the magnificent Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) handsomely announced, they set a delivery record in the first quarter.

Twenty five thousand, OVER twenty five thousand Tesla cars were delivered to excited consumers, consumers excited to tell the sheiks running OPEC, the goons lording over American oil firms, and every internal combustion earth hater, “byeeee.”

Benzinga on the finer details:

Tesla delivered over 25,000 vehicles in Q1, of which about 13,450 were Model S and about 11,550 were Model X. This was a new quarterly record and represents a 69 percent increase over Q1 2016.

Q1 production totaled 25,418 vehicles, also a new quarterly record.

Also, over the weekend, our lord and savior, our benevolent Elon (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) was rumored to be building an entire clean tech city.  As of this publication, the rumor is being considered an April Fools prank.

For now, investors will have to be content with being involved in the only company hellbent on disrupting the most diabolical forces on our earth.  The pure evil that capitalism gave birth to, the oil executive.

So far it appears to be working.  The company had a record setting first quarter as they barrel toward their Q3 goal of mass production.  The Model 3, a car for the working man, and an opportunity to dollar vote against the muckrakers in Alberta, Canada.

BULLISH

 

 

 

 

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