Friday, February 12, 2016
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January Ends With Face Ripping Rally

DEAD_PSYCHO

The best rallies in the world come during downtrends.  The first bounce is always shorted too soon, and when these ‘hole’ shorts realize the natural geyser forces are erupting, they are forced to join the bid.

Breadth is nearly 90% on the session, and with February starting on a Monday [and it being a leap year] we are likely to see continued strength through the first three days of the month.

And I am without any position trades.

However I have investments.  Some are doing better, others are Twitter.  But I added a new one this morning–AT&T.  I love the look of this chart, long term, as it finally breaks from a multi-year consolidation.  We are addicted to our smartphones from age 8-80 as Howard would say.  I only want extremely big, stable stocks, and I don’t want to think about them often. Look at this massive consolidation…here’s to hoping the breakout sticks:

T_Feb2016

This way I can focus on dominating the futures markets without distraction.

Programming note: I will be around the interwebs all weekend.  I am doing Exodus demonstrations for members only.  If you want one, email me Vince@BlacklightAnalytics.com

 

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The Flint, Michigan Water Trade [No Lead]

UNITED STATES - JUNE 17: Rep. Dan Kildee, D-Mich., speaks to a group of students from the Saginaw Public Schools Centric Program on the House steps on Wednesday, June 17, 2015. (Photo By Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Any decent person should be asking themselves, “How can I take advantage of the dire situation faced by the citizens of Flint, Michigan?”  A more basic thinker may become outraged and channel their energy into standing on the street holding signs and shouting.  Emotions are not going to fix Flint’s water.  Actions will.  In the process a select few will make a fortune.  They always do.  However, the speculator has a potential swing trade opportunity in this mess: the Water Utility Industry.

Today’s rally is meh..concentrated to oil plays and internet stuffs (Paypal, Facebook, Amazon, Google, all good things).  On a sector-wide basis Utilities are leading.  And which Utility industry is taking home the win?  Water.

These stocks have been on insane runs already, over the years but with ‘The Nerd” aka Michigan Governor Snyder poisoning hundreds of thousands of children there may be room for Water Utility stocks to keep running.

There is something to learn from this mess.  For-profit companies do a better job of managing municipal water systems then the state.  It is an inherent victory for capitalist and sends a distinct message to the socialists heavily populating the Face’dbook–capitalism wins.  Here are the companies avalible for ownership in the water industry:

WATER-iBankCOin

My favorites are AWK and AWR.  Now listen closely to me–nothing in life is free.  Just because you came to exist on planet earth doesn’t mean you are entitled to water.  You want good water, you pay, else drink from the wretched river ways of the industrial complex.

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Oprah Needs Lose Weight or Dance or Something: Weight Watchers Down 20% Today

OPRAH-sad

If you are invested in Weight Watchers right now you are invested in Oprah.  It is similar to investing in Tesla.  You want a piece of Elon–TSLA.  You want a piece of the O empire–WTW.  I thought I wanted a piece of the Oprah empire after her latest Weight Watchers promo video.  I think she actually squeezes out a few tears during the stunt:

I took a long the day she dropped this vid, and the next day I was up a cool 15 percent.  I was full on loving Oprah and her movie.  Now the position has gone 18% against me and I want to punch her in the face.

Oprah needs to hit the street and entertain woman aged 29-50 ASAP.  This stock needs to show signs, any signs, of life otherwise I will cut the loss ahead of the weekend and eat 2 quarts of iced cream whist buying wares from QVC.

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Walmart Returns as Supreme Leader of China

RUNBABAY

There is something you need to understand about the people of China.  They are not free thinkers like you and me.  Instead, they take orders from their leaders and follow them vehemently.  Any downtime is spent pacing, smoking, and hoping for the next order of business.  For a minute, it almost looked like the Chinese economy had footing and that businesses could exist to serve their domestic consumers.  However their consumer is weak, their cities are empty, and their poorly manipulated stock market is in shambles.  This is great news for Walmart.  They can now go back to demanding shiploads of useless wares from the strapped nation for pennies on the dollar.  Walmart wins when China stumbles.

Pretty much everything sold inside Walmart is made in China.  From electronics to food and furniture, you are looking at tier one China manufacturing.

Walmart is a good leader.  They are big and strong.  Do you want a wolf leading a pack of sheep?  Or a sheep leading a pack of wolves?  Order has been restored.

Several retailers are doing well today, but I get a strong sense of patriotism seeing Walmart power thrusting.  It helps I am long of WMT, in US dollar terms.  I have zero intention of selling either.  They are my retail fix from back when getting a retail fix was not cool.

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A Few Reasons Why Apple Cutting iPhone 6 Production By 30% Makes Sense

Trading the NASDAQ is sort of like trading Apple with some outside noise.  The company is such a huge piece of the index that a bump in APPL stock sends ripples into the futures.  Therefore when rumor of a 30% production cut on the iPhone 6 and 6+ hit the streets (so cliché, so gay) sellers piled in.  There are a few factors that make the whispers seem legit.

Andriod phones have gotten really nice.  Over the holiday I saw several of the new Samsung phones, including the S6 Edge and was blown away by the quality.  If a person can stomach abandoning years of spending inside the App Store and iTunes, they can buy phones with better cameras that are new and sexy.  They can be used to fly drones also.

Apple is probably going to launch the iPhone 7 soon.  God knows they need another hit phone.  The pro tablet is only being maximized by Jeff Macke.  People who cannot grasp the utility of the pen prefer to remind everyone that Apple must have “blew it” if they are selling a stylus (Steve’s words, not mine).  The watch, nobody wants a tech watch.  Look at what Fitbit did today when they moronically released a damned Apple watch knockoff at the Vegas Consumer Electronics Show…down 18 BIG ONES.  Smart watches are toxic.  I have fully digressed.  Why keep making iPhone 6 when 7 is coming in hot?

China.  The Chinese spent last year using iPhones as currency.  These lunatics, lemmings void of independent reasoning, must have stock piles of iPhones.  Soon an iPhone 6 may not even buy a week’s worth of groceries.

Sometimes a rumor makes sense.  When it does, it is considered fact.  So while the news came from Nikkei Asian Review (Lolz) Apple is guilty until proven innocent.

Aside: I never check the futures after hours.  There are enough hours during cash and I feel like its bad for the soul.  Big ups to the after hours traders.  Be on the lookout for more Apple talk hitting the tape this week.  Also, remember, FOMC minutes tomorrow afternoon–major key driver of overall market direction through Friday morning (when they drop NFP).

Stay loose for now, so when it comes time you can be sharp.  Want to see how I stay loose?  Follow me on snapchat for closeups of me stretching and pumping iron: Vcali.

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Listen Idiot News Folk: Tesla Is Not Crashing

ELONG_QUOTEHANDS

Boy how low-tier news sources like to throw around the ‘C’ word.  Tesla Motors is down a quick 7% on the session after they reported delivering 17,400 vehicles in the fourth quarter.  The number was met with grief because the company delivered as promised.

The management team at Tesla estimated 50-52k Model X and S cars would be delivered, and they managed to deliver 50,580.  This sounds like a company that has a decent handle on their process and did a good job communicating with the dolts of Wall Street.

The stock was up 8% in 2015 and erased those gains in a single day.  It sucks, I suppose, but it is not a crash.  Welcome to high valuation story stock investing, asshats.

Cavemen like to point to the burn rate over at Tesla with their stubby fingers, citing their negative $550 million dollar net cash flow last year.  They talk about how this path is unsustainable.  I do not listen to close minded, bumbling fools.  I do listen to top Tesla employees, however, and rumor is they have a cash flow positive party planned for 2016.  A big one.

I consider any major dip in Tesla a buying opportunity.  I also consider minor dips buying opportunities, but for now I am just chilling–letting the pros slug each other in the ribs and scrotum (scroti?  is there a plural form?).

Tesla motors is not crashing.  It is taking heat on a hot market day.  If you cannot take it, buy some burnt up carbon like WMT.

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TWITTER IS THE WORST STOCK ON THE PLANET

DUMBER

I swear this stock will never go up again.  What a constant comedy, this company is, now again in the hot seat after analyst Ken Sena threw shade on the bird.

Citing comScore and a few ISIs surveys, Sena thinks the prevailing 325 million MAU estimate is not likely.

He also expects their US advertising revenues–promoting your tweet to the cavemen of Turkey–to grow below the royal 20% making their growth story kind of bleak.

Nothing like the success of Instagram and Snapchat, Sena adds.

While at it, he dropped at $22 profit target on Twitter shares.

All this analyst dogging has the shares down about 4% heading into the close, on a day when the broad market is lethargically ripping.

If there is a silver lining in the Twitter story it is my niece, who is leagues cooler than me or you, who says Twitter is the best behind only Snapchat.  We have hope.  Nevertheless, this stock continues to be the worst one on the planet–and my largest position.

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Everyone Wants To Take Market Share from Chipotle

BRONXTALE

“Never let a good crisis go to waste.” – Winston Churchill

The fact is woman have been liberated from the kitchen.  Gone are the days when 2-3 meals were expected to be on the table per the chef wife–whose duties also included keeping the house tidy, cleaning the children and dog, procuring groceries, clothing, all holiday and birthday presents, and decorating the house with knickknacks.

The void has been filled with fast causal food.  Desolate men, living the American dream via 50 hours of hard cubicle time, rank file into burger, burrito, and chicken joints for sustenance.  They sit, alone or with other inmates…er coworkers, expanding their girth 1200 calories at a time.  This is not changing anytime soon.

Chipotle was a safe place for them.  It ‘looked’ clean.  The help was sometimes cute.  It was beans, rice, and guacamole so it must be healthy, right?  WRONG!  Poison bitches, poison…the terrorists aren’t the only ones winning, deadly bacteria is too.

Now what?  Where do they go?  These are real issues facing the first world.

My top pick is LOCO because it is delicious and crasy [sic].  I wonder if Wingstop paid dork Brian Sozzi to go fork and knife one of their wings today?  I digress.  I bought some LOCO today.

What is your favorite horse in this race?  This race to dethrone the big shots at Chipotle?

“People love it when you lose, they love dirty laundry.” – Don Henley

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Paypal for Bitcoin Exposure

robofriend

I am trying to find my way into Paypal shares.  The online merchant allows users to transact in bitcoin, which intrigues me.

Bitcoin is worth about $350 right now, and anyone with this super currency has plenty of ways to convert it into goods and services.  These video game bux are a very real form of payment.

The stock had a nice push from the $35 handle today. If we get a check back to this region I am going to be there, bidding the long.  Risk to the double low at $33.85.

Aside from outright bitcoin ownership, I think this is one the best ways to expose some investment risk to the bitcoin empire.

 

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E. COLIii

SONY DSC

If we head south this month, Chipotle is my horse for the ride.  They have the disgusting E. Coli funk all over their restaurants.

Seasonality-wise, now is when I am most likely to rely on fast causal foods.  It is like putting up Christmas decorations to beat back the depression, it satisfies my impulses.  This year, I would rather eat my shoe than a hot bowl of Mexi-American E. Coli.  My stomach has enough issues, what with the relatives and their homemade cakes.

I guess what I am saying is, as a company, this is not the time to screw up.  This is when you execute like a boss and reap the blessings.  If not I have no sympathy for you.  Maybe next year, Chipotle.

Normally I short the whole biotech industry when my bias skews bear.  And I probably will again–but I am also going to be stalking shorts in CMG.

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