RAUL BUY: $UGAZ

146 views

As the mothership is assaulted with howling 50mph winds I am reminded of just how harsh the winter conditions can become in the north. The gas trade is not for you faint of heart Alcoa types. This market is a battle ground strewn with the corpses of men who waged battle with the gods.

Their folly was resisting to the flow of nature. This flow is something I am very in tune with, something cultivated through hours of deep oneness with the earth. In short, do not bet against the man with the gilded heart, for it shines a blinding light upon the galaxy.

Weekly Strategy Session clients, you have my road map for this idea. Do not let risk get away from you if you follow. And may the whip of Boreas lash the faces of our enemies.

Why I’m Hot for Tenacious $Z

172 views

Let’s look at how simple trading can be if we remove the noise.  Below is a weekly chart of Zillow.  You do not need any indicators except price bars.  Even price bars have their limitations.  All we attempt to glean from a chart is the behavior of supply and demand.  This is a very physical force in nature that drives movement.

The physiological $100 print was the scene of sellers for quite some time.  They sat there, on the offer, absorbing the demand of buyers.  Their staying power was enough to cause a correction nearly 30% lower.  This was not just longs taking profits. The short float is reported to be over 30% in this stock.  There are short sellers who live at $100, and they took $60 dollars worth of heat in 2014.  Some of them might have some lingering traumatic stress from the event and seeing price return to this level allows them to scratch their idea.

Others, who sold their $40 shares at $100 only to see price rocket to $160 now can jump back on where they left off.

These are just hypothetical characters to envision when wrapping your mind around how prior resistance is converted into support.  Markets are the net of all interacting humans’ behaviors.  Nothing more.

I have no Z position, but I love it right here, especially if we see another dip that lets me in next week:

Z_Nov_2014

Lingering

190 views

Nothing negates a failed auction quite like a slow and sideways trade right at the swing high.  The quiet manner by which the market lingers at swing high suggests two things.  First, the market is not sharply rejecting higher prices.  Instead we are building acceptance at these prices.  Second, the slow action suggests the market might be waiting for new information before moving elsewhere.

Under the hood of the market, the internals are showing an interesting rotation to start the week.  Most interesting is today’s weakness in retail which has become a widely discussed area expecting some positive rotation.  It is a simple trade to understand and started showing early signs of working last week.  However, one must keep an open mind that the whole idea could take some heat before ultimately playing out into Thanksgiving.   Shares in EXPR, ANF, JCP, and AEO are showing signs of relative weakness and LULU reversed its early pop.  On the flip side we can see rotation into risk especially in security software, China names, and solar.

Overall the grind higher makes it tough to short, especially individual stocks who could squeeze at any moment.  And on the other side, taking longs requires proper risk profiles to your trades and overall book in case we see a leg down quickly materialize.

The top three trades I am stalking into the close are YELP, DANG, and SCOK. All long ideas, especially if bulls sustain trade above the zone from the daily mid (4163.75) to opening swing high (4161.25).

I Will Never Sell These $TSLA Shares

144 views

Sometimes you have to toss your entire school of thought out the window because someone logically teaches you something.  Your foundation stones, scribed with hammer and chisel, explode them on your knee and then open your mind to change.

Your favorite vagrant stock picker uses these charts to assess swing trades.  My most recent entry into Tesla was for the ‘200 role’ which is a power move to $250 a share reserved only for the hottest of momo stud muffins. Lately I sit here, filling up my subcompact with sub $3.00 benzino, watching these Saudi Arabians push the black tea down, and news flow looking grim.  To make matters worse, the market was running a rout, this company has some despicable valuation, and the technical picture is a bit dicey.

Let me show you something before cleansing the earth by burning it to ash and smoke.  This is a daily candle chart of The Tesla Motors aka TSLA.  What it printed yesterday looked like a textbook start to another wave lower.

TSLA_Daily_Oct

Then, on cue, like the guy keeps a technical analyst on staff, the most brazen CEO of our time takes out the South African whip and lashes the media.  Oh, the drama of it all:

Said technical picture is now moot, the auction has pulled a 180, and the torque behind this move is spine bending.

Let this be a lesson to all of yous.  Tech analysis has its limitations.  It is simply a method of measuring supply and demand and their effects.  But when you have a brilliant company on the edge of scientific discovery led by a Swiss knife of brilliance, just sit back and never sell those shares.

These old TSLA charts will also be burned for good measure:

TSLA_DEC12

TSLA_July192014

TSLA_08112014

$TWTR Will Save Us

176 views

The market is off to a real grinder of a start as we barrel headlong into a series of high impact economic announcements.  And though many traders are focused on asset purchasing pace, interest rates, and oil prices, momentum traders will be watching Twitter.

Just one scant year into public trade and this stock has seen its fair share of drama.  Yet, the company has seen very little change to its overall value—it has traded flat over the time.  Flat, mind you, is relative because along the way have been rotations fit for a king.  As we head into the first birthday of trade, and earnings after the bell, here are some basic price levels to have in mind:

TWTR_daily_10272014

Being a long, long since day one to some varying degree or another, I am certain this will be Twitters ‘coming out’ day where it proves doubters of the concept to be introverted clown babies.  This company has become one of the primary cogs of human existence.  It is trading like crap today, another solid sign for the chuckle hut.   Twitter has the added bonus or reporting after the Yelp and  the Amazon face plants where a notable shift in investor perception occurred in the growth complex.  Put simply, both companies were punished for being weak.  Here is the relative performance of TWTR, YELP, AMZN, and FB since the BABA top:

 

TWTR_COMP
Twitter is hovering in the middle of the pack, just slightly under-performing FB who reports tomorrow.  Will these two social media juggernauts join the ranks of our other two internet pillars?  Absolutely  not, both will crush and guide sending shorts to run to the hopium pipe.  My bed is made, long of TWTR in common terms, willing to risk to zero if need be to see this company ride to glory.

“I think it’s very unwise to be shorting Tesla”

430 views

elon-musk_meme

It sure is hard to put fresh money to work buying shares of Tesla up here, just a stone’s throw away from all time highs.  Most of the fundamental folks could not stomach “how expensive” the company is.

How must is the biggest disruptor worth?

Deutsche Bank thinks it’s worth about 38.7 billion, today.

My investing philosophy is simple, invest in the best jockey riding the most disruptive horse.  Of course I would find it hard to buy TSLA today, up here, because I chomp charts like an addict.  However, while we all wait for another pullback to get on the bus or add, this stock is about to break out.

And if market participants are willing to risk their capital with Tesla, ridiculous valuation and all, that might be a pretty good indication of RISK ON.

FD: long Tesla common, long term

Whole Paycheck

148 views

grocery storeI started a long position in WFM this morning, giving myself time via the September $40 calls.  Deals…

 

Also, looking for the Jen S. higher low bottom to hold on TNA:

pic.twitter.com/u3hYE29rKG

— Jen Selter (@JenSelter) July 31, 2014

Contextual Approach To a Short Term TSLA Trade

123 views

As you may recall, I have been in and out of TSLA common stock for much of 2013 and a good portion of 2014.  My most recent common stock swing began 06/10 and is up just a bit over eight percent.  Sometimes I juice my position with some leverage, pinning on short dated call options.  I came into Friday with August 1 $230 calls and closed them early in the session with the intention of buying the calls back at the end of the day for a discount.  It turns out I was trying to be fancy, and I ended up paying a bit more for the position come 4pm.  However, I like the short term contextual read on TSLA right here, and I have presented my case below.  The yellow box is an expansion of a 15 day ATR.  My expectation is for price to achieve the upper target by the close of next week, thus allowing me 2-3 days of opportunity to smack a home run.

See below:

TSLA_July192014

Hanging Out at The Dump

71 views

When the market works upward in the grinding manner we have seen over the course of the past 10 days, it makes sense to consider rotating into lower quality stocks that have not yet appreciated alongside the market.  Such is the case with my long in FCEL.  I have already locked in 2/3 of my long and I now have a runner piece as earnings approach.  Stocks behave very odd into earnings because humans begin questioning the very fabric of their thesis as the micro news approaches.  It is my intent to profit from the uncertainty, and I have secured my risk well.

Considering the success I had dabbling in the dumpsters, I initiated and intermediate long in Waste Management.  The truth is I have been watching this name behave well for many weeks and I was waiting for signs of initiating buyers.  This stock pairs with TWTR and LO as long term holds that will not overly distract me while I trade futures.

Speaking of Twitter, she is off to the races today.  You would think this would distract me, but I am a long term investor in Twitter who is convinced of its media prowess and certain the stock will trade at upsetting valuations within my lifetime.  These valuations, mind you, will not upset me whatsoever.  I am currently down about 34% on my position.  This is committed capital whether I like it or not.  Fortunately, I like it.

I took a new long in WB in anticipation of the Chinese waking up, reading of the crazy Americans and how they rushed into Twitter like a pack of fresh zombies, and immediately using their iPhones to buy their native twitter Weibo.  This should bode well for not only my WB June calls, but also my SINA shares.

We printed a neutral day today, suggesting we are again at an area of intense indecision in the Nasdaq.  Be prepared for violence:

NQ_marketprofile_05282014_neutralprint
NOTE: The neutral print suggests very little directional conviction if we close near the middle.  HOWEVER, the neutral print with an extreme closing, like HOD or LOD suggests strong directional conviction by the dominant party.  So this close is very telling…pay attention!

Still Alive

125 views

I am clawing back some gains in this marketplace, with the bulk of the progress spearheaded by the action surrounding Weibo.  I did not take a position in Weibo but my plan of attack on SINA began to fruit and I took a nice trade in Twitter.  My book is now down a mere 11% year to date.

The question now is whether I should be raising cash.  This is my third month of seeing many options vanish from my portfolio and good riddance to the lot of them.  My book is clean now and I intend to sell more of it.  But for now it stands as follows:

Largest-to-smallest: LO, TWTR, AMBA, SINA, CREE, RVLT, DDD, YGE, FCEL, OESX, TSLA, and GRNH

I plan to peak out at 12 positions but may go as far as 15 if I simply cannot close a position.  I am questioning some of my favorite plays for their merit.

Futures trading went well, my algo traded well too.  This was day two of all systems running in harmony and my system showing me tons of confidence.  I will continue testing however into the more aromatic sessions as the month progresses and “Sell in May” becomes a discussion.

I am in no rush.  I can tell you this, with confidence, if I had some sort of urgency for keeping a roof on my head and food in my belly, then I would certainly fail.  One must wear a few hats to properly pursue their dreams, IMHO.

Have a great Easter holiday and enjoy a working day with the market closed.  These working days always blow my mind, the amount of work I am able to complete with the market closed.

RAUL BUY: $UGAZ

146 views

As the mothership is assaulted with howling 50mph winds I am reminded of just how harsh the winter conditions can become in the north. The gas trade is not for you faint of heart Alcoa types. This market is a battle ground strewn with the corpses of men who waged battle with the gods.

Their folly was resisting to the flow of nature. This flow is something I am very in tune with, something cultivated through hours of deep oneness with the earth. In short, do not bet against the man with the gilded heart, for it shines a blinding light upon the galaxy.

Weekly Strategy Session clients, you have my road map for this idea. Do not let risk get away from you if you follow. And may the whip of Boreas lash the faces of our enemies.

Why I’m Hot for Tenacious $Z

172 views

Let’s look at how simple trading can be if we remove the noise.  Below is a weekly chart of Zillow.  You do not need any indicators except price bars.  Even price bars have their limitations.  All we attempt to glean from a chart is the behavior of supply and demand.  This is a very physical force in nature that drives movement.

The physiological $100 print was the scene of sellers for quite some time.  They sat there, on the offer, absorbing the demand of buyers.  Their staying power was enough to cause a correction nearly 30% lower.  This was not just longs taking profits. The short float is reported to be over 30% in this stock.  There are short sellers who live at $100, and they took $60 dollars worth of heat in 2014.  Some of them might have some lingering traumatic stress from the event and seeing price return to this level allows them to scratch their idea.

Others, who sold their $40 shares at $100 only to see price rocket to $160 now can jump back on where they left off.

These are just hypothetical characters to envision when wrapping your mind around how prior resistance is converted into support.  Markets are the net of all interacting humans’ behaviors.  Nothing more.

I have no Z position, but I love it right here, especially if we see another dip that lets me in next week:

Z_Nov_2014

Lingering

190 views

Nothing negates a failed auction quite like a slow and sideways trade right at the swing high.  The quiet manner by which the market lingers at swing high suggests two things.  First, the market is not sharply rejecting higher prices.  Instead we are building acceptance at these prices.  Second, the slow action suggests the market might be waiting for new information before moving elsewhere.

Under the hood of the market, the internals are showing an interesting rotation to start the week.  Most interesting is today’s weakness in retail which has become a widely discussed area expecting some positive rotation.  It is a simple trade to understand and started showing early signs of working last week.  However, one must keep an open mind that the whole idea could take some heat before ultimately playing out into Thanksgiving.   Shares in EXPR, ANF, JCP, and AEO are showing signs of relative weakness and LULU reversed its early pop.  On the flip side we can see rotation into risk especially in security software, China names, and solar.

Overall the grind higher makes it tough to short, especially individual stocks who could squeeze at any moment.  And on the other side, taking longs requires proper risk profiles to your trades and overall book in case we see a leg down quickly materialize.

The top three trades I am stalking into the close are YELP, DANG, and SCOK. All long ideas, especially if bulls sustain trade above the zone from the daily mid (4163.75) to opening swing high (4161.25).

I Will Never Sell These $TSLA Shares

144 views

Sometimes you have to toss your entire school of thought out the window because someone logically teaches you something.  Your foundation stones, scribed with hammer and chisel, explode them on your knee and then open your mind to change.

Your favorite vagrant stock picker uses these charts to assess swing trades.  My most recent entry into Tesla was for the ‘200 role’ which is a power move to $250 a share reserved only for the hottest of momo stud muffins. Lately I sit here, filling up my subcompact with sub $3.00 benzino, watching these Saudi Arabians push the black tea down, and news flow looking grim.  To make matters worse, the market was running a rout, this company has some despicable valuation, and the technical picture is a bit dicey.

Let me show you something before cleansing the earth by burning it to ash and smoke.  This is a daily candle chart of The Tesla Motors aka TSLA.  What it printed yesterday looked like a textbook start to another wave lower.

TSLA_Daily_Oct

Then, on cue, like the guy keeps a technical analyst on staff, the most brazen CEO of our time takes out the South African whip and lashes the media.  Oh, the drama of it all:

Said technical picture is now moot, the auction has pulled a 180, and the torque behind this move is spine bending.

Let this be a lesson to all of yous.  Tech analysis has its limitations.  It is simply a method of measuring supply and demand and their effects.  But when you have a brilliant company on the edge of scientific discovery led by a Swiss knife of brilliance, just sit back and never sell those shares.

These old TSLA charts will also be burned for good measure:

TSLA_DEC12

TSLA_July192014

TSLA_08112014

$TWTR Will Save Us

176 views

The market is off to a real grinder of a start as we barrel headlong into a series of high impact economic announcements.  And though many traders are focused on asset purchasing pace, interest rates, and oil prices, momentum traders will be watching Twitter.

Just one scant year into public trade and this stock has seen its fair share of drama.  Yet, the company has seen very little change to its overall value—it has traded flat over the time.  Flat, mind you, is relative because along the way have been rotations fit for a king.  As we head into the first birthday of trade, and earnings after the bell, here are some basic price levels to have in mind:

TWTR_daily_10272014

Being a long, long since day one to some varying degree or another, I am certain this will be Twitters ‘coming out’ day where it proves doubters of the concept to be introverted clown babies.  This company has become one of the primary cogs of human existence.  It is trading like crap today, another solid sign for the chuckle hut.   Twitter has the added bonus or reporting after the Yelp and  the Amazon face plants where a notable shift in investor perception occurred in the growth complex.  Put simply, both companies were punished for being weak.  Here is the relative performance of TWTR, YELP, AMZN, and FB since the BABA top:

 

TWTR_COMP
Twitter is hovering in the middle of the pack, just slightly under-performing FB who reports tomorrow.  Will these two social media juggernauts join the ranks of our other two internet pillars?  Absolutely  not, both will crush and guide sending shorts to run to the hopium pipe.  My bed is made, long of TWTR in common terms, willing to risk to zero if need be to see this company ride to glory.

“I think it’s very unwise to be shorting Tesla”

430 views

elon-musk_meme

It sure is hard to put fresh money to work buying shares of Tesla up here, just a stone’s throw away from all time highs.  Most of the fundamental folks could not stomach “how expensive” the company is.

How must is the biggest disruptor worth?

Deutsche Bank thinks it’s worth about 38.7 billion, today.

My investing philosophy is simple, invest in the best jockey riding the most disruptive horse.  Of course I would find it hard to buy TSLA today, up here, because I chomp charts like an addict.  However, while we all wait for another pullback to get on the bus or add, this stock is about to break out.

And if market participants are willing to risk their capital with Tesla, ridiculous valuation and all, that might be a pretty good indication of RISK ON.

FD: long Tesla common, long term

Contextual Approach To a Short Term TSLA Trade

123 views

As you may recall, I have been in and out of TSLA common stock for much of 2013 and a good portion of 2014.  My most recent common stock swing began 06/10 and is up just a bit over eight percent.  Sometimes I juice my position with some leverage, pinning on short dated call options.  I came into Friday with August 1 $230 calls and closed them early in the session with the intention of buying the calls back at the end of the day for a discount.  It turns out I was trying to be fancy, and I ended up paying a bit more for the position come 4pm.  However, I like the short term contextual read on TSLA right here, and I have presented my case below.  The yellow box is an expansion of a 15 day ATR.  My expectation is for price to achieve the upper target by the close of next week, thus allowing me 2-3 days of opportunity to smack a home run.

See below:

TSLA_July192014

Hanging Out at The Dump

71 views

When the market works upward in the grinding manner we have seen over the course of the past 10 days, it makes sense to consider rotating into lower quality stocks that have not yet appreciated alongside the market.  Such is the case with my long in FCEL.  I have already locked in 2/3 of my long and I now have a runner piece as earnings approach.  Stocks behave very odd into earnings because humans begin questioning the very fabric of their thesis as the micro news approaches.  It is my intent to profit from the uncertainty, and I have secured my risk well.

Considering the success I had dabbling in the dumpsters, I initiated and intermediate long in Waste Management.  The truth is I have been watching this name behave well for many weeks and I was waiting for signs of initiating buyers.  This stock pairs with TWTR and LO as long term holds that will not overly distract me while I trade futures.

Speaking of Twitter, she is off to the races today.  You would think this would distract me, but I am a long term investor in Twitter who is convinced of its media prowess and certain the stock will trade at upsetting valuations within my lifetime.  These valuations, mind you, will not upset me whatsoever.  I am currently down about 34% on my position.  This is committed capital whether I like it or not.  Fortunately, I like it.

I took a new long in WB in anticipation of the Chinese waking up, reading of the crazy Americans and how they rushed into Twitter like a pack of fresh zombies, and immediately using their iPhones to buy their native twitter Weibo.  This should bode well for not only my WB June calls, but also my SINA shares.

We printed a neutral day today, suggesting we are again at an area of intense indecision in the Nasdaq.  Be prepared for violence:

NQ_marketprofile_05282014_neutralprint
NOTE: The neutral print suggests very little directional conviction if we close near the middle.  HOWEVER, the neutral print with an extreme closing, like HOD or LOD suggests strong directional conviction by the dominant party.  So this close is very telling…pay attention!

Still Alive

125 views

I am clawing back some gains in this marketplace, with the bulk of the progress spearheaded by the action surrounding Weibo.  I did not take a position in Weibo but my plan of attack on SINA began to fruit and I took a nice trade in Twitter.  My book is now down a mere 11% year to date.

The question now is whether I should be raising cash.  This is my third month of seeing many options vanish from my portfolio and good riddance to the lot of them.  My book is clean now and I intend to sell more of it.  But for now it stands as follows:

Largest-to-smallest: LO, TWTR, AMBA, SINA, CREE, RVLT, DDD, YGE, FCEL, OESX, TSLA, and GRNH

I plan to peak out at 12 positions but may go as far as 15 if I simply cannot close a position.  I am questioning some of my favorite plays for their merit.

Futures trading went well, my algo traded well too.  This was day two of all systems running in harmony and my system showing me tons of confidence.  I will continue testing however into the more aromatic sessions as the month progresses and “Sell in May” becomes a discussion.

I am in no rush.  I can tell you this, with confidence, if I had some sort of urgency for keeping a roof on my head and food in my belly, then I would certainly fail.  One must wear a few hats to properly pursue their dreams, IMHO.

Have a great Easter holiday and enjoy a working day with the market closed.  These working days always blow my mind, the amount of work I am able to complete with the market closed.

Previous Posts by Raul3