Monday, May 2, 2016
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BEWARE: Raul Goes After Another Stock Trade


Heed my caution, the circuitry powering the stock exchanges is designed to smell out stock traders like me and destroy them.

Thus, when you see my initiate my second stock trade of the year, your concern is warrented.


This go around I bought MNK.  This buy came after performing a top-down analysis last night using Exodus.  The study can be found by clicking here.

Same risk management applies: 10 day hold or -10% stop loss.  Godspeed.


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Digging into Earnings Season Data: Finding Actionable Stock Picks with Exodus


Several Exodus users are competent and operate the system to extract actionable stocks.  They also engage the macro timing algorithm like it is second nature.  Other members, mostly noobs, need to be shown the basics.

That is why they sent me.  I am the expert.  Please do not envision me like a savant—naturally gifted in the fields of software, stocked markets, and statistical analysis.  Running Exodus is not rocket science, though it was developed by a Space Alien Magician.  It is simple to operate. Let’s go top down and find actionable stocks right now, shall we?

Step 1: Decide The Relevant Time Frame

You need to think about how far into the past you want your data to go.  I want to see which sectors are outperforming since the start of earnings season, which was about 2-weeks ago.

BEHOLD: 2-WEEK SECTOR PERFORMANCE (save all applause until the end)


Nothing really stands out, nothing except the haymaker Basic Materials landed square on the scrotum of bearshitters.  Goodness, look at that thing.  Now comes my bias, and this is the part where I tailor the results for my needs, and why you need to become self sufficient at this simple form of analysis.  I do not want or need a Basic Materials stock in my portfolio.  So I will instead dig into the second best performer, our good friend Healthcare.

Step 2: Enter the Armory And Choose a Weapon


Armed with the sector intelligence we gathered above, we now head into The Grid.  The Grid is the biggest page inside Exodus and is loaded with tools you can use to hone in on winners.  The whole Sell in May thing has me cautious.  Therefore I am picking the Free Cash Flow model portfolio as my weapon.  It is loaded with fundamental filters by the Le Fly himself.  Great screen when you want to find companies whose operations were sound over a trailing 12-month period, in hopes their operations will continue to funnel cash into the company, thus fending off any liquidity issues should credit start to tighten.

I refuse to write out all the steps I take to soup up the Free Cash Flow screen to find actionable stocks.  If you are serious about using Exodus set up a 15-minute phone call with me by calling 800-863-7110, emailing, sending me a DM on Twitter @IndexModel, or ping me on SnapChat [VCali].  Exodus members can access the screen by clicking here.

However, for the unwashed, if you’ve stuck around with your hat out, bedraggled and smelling of cheese, waiting for PICKS, I have your picks.



From the list I like GMED the best, then MNK ::takes bow, basks in applause::



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More FitBit Rumors Have The Wearable Tech Company’s Stock Soaring


Today’s FitBit rumor says Nike is interested in buying the company, or the device, or poaching employees.  No one is really sure, that’s what makes it a rumor.

See also: FitBit: The Form of a Winner Today $FIT

And this week rumors are facts and grounds to absolutely rip the pants off a stock [to the upside, of course, ONLY].

The stock is up over 10% so far on the session.

As awesome and amazing as rumors are, you know where you could objectively infer a move was coming in $FIT?  Why yes, Exodus–and its intuitive hybrid scoring mechanism, which saw a HUGE spike back on March 31st:

Speculative fever is running hot as mating season approaches and humans desperately turn to cyborg technology to aid in the toning of their hips and nips.

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FitBit: The Form of a Winner Today $FIT


Whispers of positive comments out this morning by Morgan Stanley put an early spike in FitBit.  On an otherwise quiet morning, moves like this are likely to gain momentum chasers attention.

Pair that with the insane hybrid spike last week in Exodus, and you have the makings of a runner.

Keep an eye on $FIT


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You guy’s don’t want to see this happening–I’ve been drawn back into the dark world of individual stocks.

Just now I went to the market and picked up some JOY.

Know this: I have not purchased a single stock in 2016, yet here I am, atop the bulletproof market rally, buying Joy Global.  Be afraid.

See also: Stock Market Stuck on Win

Seriously, I bought shares in a company.  I am the one they smell and destroy.  Joy Global manufactures underground mining machinery and surface mining equipment.  SMH

I found the rally and I intend to kill it.  Godspeed lads.

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Nothing Like Horrible Human Tragety To Drum Up Interest in Twitter


Twitter is down -27% year-to-date as it continues it downward spiral of mediocrity.


We’ve all come to accept that Twitter is most valuable when something horrible is happening in the world, like a GOP debate or dress color argument.  I am sitting, bagholding, wondering if the terrorist attack in Brussels will put a bid in Twitter.  Appropriate, wouldn’t it be?  Just as the rally reaches maturity, for the bird to attempt flight.

It probably won’t go well.  Look at April seasonality for this loser:


But I am hopeful because Twitter was the first place I went this morning to find out what the hell was going on in Brussels.  I wanted to hear it through the filter of my stream–some of the finest people in the world, as far as I am concerned.


That little chart consolidation it is forming maybe, just perhaps, will break to the upside and stick and provide some tinder for a rally.  I’ll keep holding my breath.

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Is AMC’s The Walking Dead Good Enough To Trigger A Rally? $AMCX


At first it seemed like the Mid-Season premiere of The Walking Dead was overlooked.  It came out on Valentine’s Day.  No one was dropping spoilers on Facebook.  The Scientologists at Forbes, with their auto-start video ads, thought the episode was, “riddled with plot holes and inconsistencies.”

The three people I talked to in real life agreed it was the most hair-raising episode yet, and there is a hugely popular character on the horizon, a certain Negan.  True fans are going bananas.  But even if overall sentiment is wrong, and my perception right, is an extremely good Walking Dead enough for AMCX to rally?

The rest of AMC’s lineup fails to resonate with me.  They have a spin off from Walking Dead where the whole beginning [often the most thrilling part of an apocalypse] happens again, but in Los Angeles.  I like the idea of seeding another TV show with the mojo of a hit, but Fear of The Walking Dead never grabbed me.  They are doing the same thing with Better Call Saul, a continuation story of the lovable but scummy attorney from Breaking Bad.

I am sure there are other shows, but right now Walking Dead is their gem.  And the latest episode firmly asserted its claim to top 3 TV shows on my list.  Does the network need another Walking Dead or Breaking Bad to cause an upside explosion in the stock?  Or will the sheer longevity of The Walking Dead plot and their consistent ability to engage the viewer do the trick?

Here’s the chart.  We are sitting right on a price level that was support all through 2013, back when The Governor was keeping pet zombie heads in fish tanks. In 2014 the same price level was walked [had to] all over before a euphoric rally throttled price higher during 2016. This $62.50 level is also the volume point of control, meaning the market likes this price.  So the good news is this level behaved as support in the past.  The bad news is if it breaks, price likely takes a fast trip down to $47:


With earnings on tap next week [February 25th before market open] we might be able to sneak in-and-out of a long trade up to $66 or so, but I am too chicken to hold through earnings with that pocket risk.

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January Ends With Face Ripping Rally


The best rallies in the world come during downtrends.  The first bounce is always shorted too soon, and when these ‘hole’ shorts realize the natural geyser forces are erupting, they are forced to join the bid.

Breadth is nearly 90% on the session, and with February starting on a Monday [and it being a leap year] we are likely to see continued strength through the first three days of the month.

And I am without any position trades.

However I have investments.  Some are doing better, others are Twitter.  But I added a new one this morning–AT&T.  I love the look of this chart, long term, as it finally breaks from a multi-year consolidation.  We are addicted to our smartphones from age 8-80 as Howard would say.  I only want extremely big, stable stocks, and I don’t want to think about them often. Look at this massive consolidation…here’s to hoping the breakout sticks:


This way I can focus on dominating the futures markets without distraction.

Programming note: I will be around the interwebs all weekend.  I am doing Exodus demonstrations for members only.  If you want one, email me


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The Flint, Michigan Water Trade [No Lead]

UNITED STATES - JUNE 17: Rep. Dan Kildee, D-Mich., speaks to a group of students from the Saginaw Public Schools Centric Program on the House steps on Wednesday, June 17, 2015. (Photo By Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Any decent person should be asking themselves, “How can I take advantage of the dire situation faced by the citizens of Flint, Michigan?”  A more basic thinker may become outraged and channel their energy into standing on the street holding signs and shouting.  Emotions are not going to fix Flint’s water.  Actions will.  In the process a select few will make a fortune.  They always do.  However, the speculator has a potential swing trade opportunity in this mess: the Water Utility Industry.

Today’s rally is meh..concentrated to oil plays and internet stuffs (Paypal, Facebook, Amazon, Google, all good things).  On a sector-wide basis Utilities are leading.  And which Utility industry is taking home the win?  Water.

These stocks have been on insane runs already, over the years but with ‘The Nerd” aka Michigan Governor Snyder poisoning hundreds of thousands of children there may be room for Water Utility stocks to keep running.

There is something to learn from this mess.  For-profit companies do a better job of managing municipal water systems then the state.  It is an inherent victory for capitalist and sends a distinct message to the socialists heavily populating the Face’dbook–capitalism wins.  Here are the companies avalible for ownership in the water industry:


My favorites are AWK and AWR.  Now listen closely to me–nothing in life is free.  Just because you came to exist on planet earth doesn’t mean you are entitled to water.  You want good water, you pay, else drink from the wretched river ways of the industrial complex.

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