“I think it’s very unwise to be shorting Tesla”

elon-musk_meme

It sure is hard to put fresh money to work buying shares of Tesla up here, just a stone’s throw away from all time highs.  Most of the fundamental folks could not stomach “how expensive” the company is.

How must is the biggest disruptor worth?

Deutsche Bank thinks it’s worth about 38.7 billion, today.

My investing philosophy is simple, invest in the best jockey riding the most disruptive horse.  Of course I would find it hard to buy TSLA today, up here, because I chomp charts like an addict.  However, while we all wait for another pullback to get on the bus or add, this stock is about to break out.

And if market participants are willing to risk their capital with Tesla, ridiculous valuation and all, that might be a pretty good indication of RISK ON.

FD: long Tesla common, long term

Contextual Approach To a Short Term TSLA Trade

As you may recall, I have been in and out of TSLA common stock for much of 2013 and a good portion of 2014.  My most recent common stock swing began 06/10 and is up just a bit over eight percent.  Sometimes I juice my position with some leverage, pinning on short dated call options.  I came into Friday with August 1 $230 calls and closed them early in the session with the intention of buying the calls back at the end of the day for a discount.  It turns out I was trying to be fancy, and I ended up paying a bit more for the position come 4pm.  However, I like the short term contextual read on TSLA right here, and I have presented my case below.  The yellow box is an expansion of a 15 day ATR.  My expectation is for price to achieve the upper target by the close of next week, thus allowing me 2-3 days of opportunity to smack a home run.

See below:

TSLA_July192014

Hanging Out at The Dump

When the market works upward in the grinding manner we have seen over the course of the past 10 days, it makes sense to consider rotating into lower quality stocks that have not yet appreciated alongside the market.  Such is the case with my long in FCEL.  I have already locked in 2/3 of my long and I now have a runner piece as earnings approach.  Stocks behave very odd into earnings because humans begin questioning the very fabric of their thesis as the micro news approaches.  It is my intent to profit from the uncertainty, and I have secured my risk well.

Considering the success I had dabbling in the dumpsters, I initiated and intermediate long in Waste Management.  The truth is I have been watching this name behave well for many weeks and I was waiting for signs of initiating buyers.  This stock pairs with TWTR and LO as long term holds that will not overly distract me while I trade futures.

Speaking of Twitter, she is off to the races today.  You would think this would distract me, but I am a long term investor in Twitter who is convinced of its media prowess and certain the stock will trade at upsetting valuations within my lifetime.  These valuations, mind you, will not upset me whatsoever.  I am currently down about 34% on my position.  This is committed capital whether I like it or not.  Fortunately, I like it.

I took a new long in WB in anticipation of the Chinese waking up, reading of the crazy Americans and how they rushed into Twitter like a pack of fresh zombies, and immediately using their iPhones to buy their native twitter Weibo.  This should bode well for not only my WB June calls, but also my SINA shares.

We printed a neutral day today, suggesting we are again at an area of intense indecision in the Nasdaq.  Be prepared for violence:

NQ_marketprofile_05282014_neutralprint
NOTE: The neutral print suggests very little directional conviction if we close near the middle.  HOWEVER, the neutral print with an extreme closing, like HOD or LOD suggests strong directional conviction by the dominant party.  So this close is very telling…pay attention!

Still Alive

I am clawing back some gains in this marketplace, with the bulk of the progress spearheaded by the action surrounding Weibo.  I did not take a position in Weibo but my plan of attack on SINA began to fruit and I took a nice trade in Twitter.  My book is now down a mere 11% year to date.

The question now is whether I should be raising cash.  This is my third month of seeing many options vanish from my portfolio and good riddance to the lot of them.  My book is clean now and I intend to sell more of it.  But for now it stands as follows:

Largest-to-smallest: LO, TWTR, AMBA, SINA, CREE, RVLT, DDD, YGE, FCEL, OESX, TSLA, and GRNH

I plan to peak out at 12 positions but may go as far as 15 if I simply cannot close a position.  I am questioning some of my favorite plays for their merit.

Futures trading went well, my algo traded well too.  This was day two of all systems running in harmony and my system showing me tons of confidence.  I will continue testing however into the more aromatic sessions as the month progresses and “Sell in May” becomes a discussion.

I am in no rush.  I can tell you this, with confidence, if I had some sort of urgency for keeping a roof on my head and food in my belly, then I would certainly fail.  One must wear a few hats to properly pursue their dreams, IMHO.

Have a great Easter holiday and enjoy a working day with the market closed.  These working days always blow my mind, the amount of work I am able to complete with the market closed.

Swing Trade Plan for $DDD

I started buying 3D tech this morning with a 1/3 entry.  This equates to roughly 3.5% of my risk portfolio.  My goal is to continue having price come against me so I can build to at least 2/3 in size.  If however we turn higher here, I will be obligated to take my first target and wait for a new opportunity to enter.

This trade is me getting back to my swing trading roots in my favorite industry, technology.  If I side with any political party it is the futurists.  I am intrigued by the people behind companies who are technology ambassadors to the world.  They are disruptive and have more potential then established cash cows.

3D is almost 50% off the high water mark we printed late last year.  This is an overreaction and a welcomed one by me, because I have been left out from owning this company for a very long time.

Without further adieu, here is my wish list plan for accumulating 3D technology.  Hopefully it craters after earnings, which I will be holding through:

DDD04102014

Doubling Down: Doing The Dirty

Everyone has a different style of trading.  These methods are forged by our own mental aptitudes and the experiences we accumulate in the marketplace.  Most of the time I want to own momentum stocks not because they are momentum stocks, but because they are the companies who have operations that actually interest me.  The challenge is managing the type of price action you can expect from the likes of Twitter or Facebook or Cree.

How about Chinese websites?  It seems like a good idea to have a few of the most popular sites from ASIA around, but good luck stomaching the daily movements.  This compelling story stock is a wild beast and riding it requires patience and strategy.

I put tons of time and research and machine hours into taking better market entries—entries which skew statistics in my favor.  That does not rule out order flow going against my entry.  One type of trade I take is to enter an oversold stock I like with a partial long.  Sometimes I take half positions, other times a third.  But I do so with a plan.  Therefore, I will lay out my plan, in the naked, for how I intend to play SINA, a stock as violent as they come.  Behold:

DAILY CHART:

SINA_daily

WEEKLY CHART:

SINA_weekly

The best trades take time and often fly in the face of recent market activity.  The above road map is how I will catch a momentum rabbit by its tail.  I’ll be keeping tabs on this one more gregariously than my recent trades.  More quality, less quantity positions, yes yes?

I never made my point, the point this post title alludes to.  If you are going to double down on a position, or average in, you better have a plan and stick to it when you are in the heat.  Hell that’s life in a nutshell so get out there and execute.  Plan and execute, plan and execute.

 

Pressing Any Momentum

There is no game in town better then momentum swing trading, in my very humble opinion.  It just has the potential for so much given the proper risk strategy.  The play is essentially to buy into the best looking charts in the most momentous stocks and try to hold on to the one or two positions that go beast mode while the rest do nothing/bleed you out.  Managing the bleeders is the bulk of the labor.

The other game is intraday scalps in the futures.  There were a few opportunities today before we went catatonic.  Overall, I was waiting for some aggressive selling but it never quite showed up.  Therefore, I put on weekly YOLOs in LULU.  The weather is breaking and with the change comes streets literally lined with women in yoga pants and skirts.  It feels festive to put a side bet on LULU into the weekly close, especially while we trade in the viscous gap region.

I took another scale in the weekly TSLA calls I bought last week.  This is the “one or two” positions I need to not muff to make this whole idea work.  I took a solid scale intraday at the first peak, it felt good.  The execution was solid and I didn’t sell the whole position—a folly which would have me level 3 frustrated because of how the stock ended the day.

Social media took a burn mostly today, led by YELP which was caught on the receiving end of an FTC document from a few weeks back getting passed around.  I am right about at my risk extreme for this position.  However, it did not breach.  Thus I will have to just tolerate the potential risk of a gap lower tomorrow.  This is one of the drawbacks of swing/momentum trading, but you diversify so one loser does not derail you.

I bought some KNDI today once it fell well off its high of the day.  I have little else to report.  The intermediate timeframe is getting a look I know and love, thus I am pressing my longs into overhead supply a bit more.

In business, not just trading, momentum is your best friend.  If you can get a little bit of it, keep it rolling or else you will have to break the static force of friction again.

“I think it’s very unwise to be shorting Tesla”

elon-musk_meme

It sure is hard to put fresh money to work buying shares of Tesla up here, just a stone’s throw away from all time highs.  Most of the fundamental folks could not stomach “how expensive” the company is.

How must is the biggest disruptor worth?

Deutsche Bank thinks it’s worth about 38.7 billion, today.

My investing philosophy is simple, invest in the best jockey riding the most disruptive horse.  Of course I would find it hard to buy TSLA today, up here, because I chomp charts like an addict.  However, while we all wait for another pullback to get on the bus or add, this stock is about to break out.

And if market participants are willing to risk their capital with Tesla, ridiculous valuation and all, that might be a pretty good indication of RISK ON.

FD: long Tesla common, long term

Contextual Approach To a Short Term TSLA Trade

As you may recall, I have been in and out of TSLA common stock for much of 2013 and a good portion of 2014.  My most recent common stock swing began 06/10 and is up just a bit over eight percent.  Sometimes I juice my position with some leverage, pinning on short dated call options.  I came into Friday with August 1 $230 calls and closed them early in the session with the intention of buying the calls back at the end of the day for a discount.  It turns out I was trying to be fancy, and I ended up paying a bit more for the position come 4pm.  However, I like the short term contextual read on TSLA right here, and I have presented my case below.  The yellow box is an expansion of a 15 day ATR.  My expectation is for price to achieve the upper target by the close of next week, thus allowing me 2-3 days of opportunity to smack a home run.

See below:

TSLA_July192014

Hanging Out at The Dump

When the market works upward in the grinding manner we have seen over the course of the past 10 days, it makes sense to consider rotating into lower quality stocks that have not yet appreciated alongside the market.  Such is the case with my long in FCEL.  I have already locked in 2/3 of my long and I now have a runner piece as earnings approach.  Stocks behave very odd into earnings because humans begin questioning the very fabric of their thesis as the micro news approaches.  It is my intent to profit from the uncertainty, and I have secured my risk well.

Considering the success I had dabbling in the dumpsters, I initiated and intermediate long in Waste Management.  The truth is I have been watching this name behave well for many weeks and I was waiting for signs of initiating buyers.  This stock pairs with TWTR and LO as long term holds that will not overly distract me while I trade futures.

Speaking of Twitter, she is off to the races today.  You would think this would distract me, but I am a long term investor in Twitter who is convinced of its media prowess and certain the stock will trade at upsetting valuations within my lifetime.  These valuations, mind you, will not upset me whatsoever.  I am currently down about 34% on my position.  This is committed capital whether I like it or not.  Fortunately, I like it.

I took a new long in WB in anticipation of the Chinese waking up, reading of the crazy Americans and how they rushed into Twitter like a pack of fresh zombies, and immediately using their iPhones to buy their native twitter Weibo.  This should bode well for not only my WB June calls, but also my SINA shares.

We printed a neutral day today, suggesting we are again at an area of intense indecision in the Nasdaq.  Be prepared for violence:

NQ_marketprofile_05282014_neutralprint
NOTE: The neutral print suggests very little directional conviction if we close near the middle.  HOWEVER, the neutral print with an extreme closing, like HOD or LOD suggests strong directional conviction by the dominant party.  So this close is very telling…pay attention!

Still Alive

I am clawing back some gains in this marketplace, with the bulk of the progress spearheaded by the action surrounding Weibo.  I did not take a position in Weibo but my plan of attack on SINA began to fruit and I took a nice trade in Twitter.  My book is now down a mere 11% year to date.

The question now is whether I should be raising cash.  This is my third month of seeing many options vanish from my portfolio and good riddance to the lot of them.  My book is clean now and I intend to sell more of it.  But for now it stands as follows:

Largest-to-smallest: LO, TWTR, AMBA, SINA, CREE, RVLT, DDD, YGE, FCEL, OESX, TSLA, and GRNH

I plan to peak out at 12 positions but may go as far as 15 if I simply cannot close a position.  I am questioning some of my favorite plays for their merit.

Futures trading went well, my algo traded well too.  This was day two of all systems running in harmony and my system showing me tons of confidence.  I will continue testing however into the more aromatic sessions as the month progresses and “Sell in May” becomes a discussion.

I am in no rush.  I can tell you this, with confidence, if I had some sort of urgency for keeping a roof on my head and food in my belly, then I would certainly fail.  One must wear a few hats to properly pursue their dreams, IMHO.

Have a great Easter holiday and enjoy a working day with the market closed.  These working days always blow my mind, the amount of work I am able to complete with the market closed.

Swing Trade Plan for $DDD

I started buying 3D tech this morning with a 1/3 entry.  This equates to roughly 3.5% of my risk portfolio.  My goal is to continue having price come against me so I can build to at least 2/3 in size.  If however we turn higher here, I will be obligated to take my first target and wait for a new opportunity to enter.

This trade is me getting back to my swing trading roots in my favorite industry, technology.  If I side with any political party it is the futurists.  I am intrigued by the people behind companies who are technology ambassadors to the world.  They are disruptive and have more potential then established cash cows.

3D is almost 50% off the high water mark we printed late last year.  This is an overreaction and a welcomed one by me, because I have been left out from owning this company for a very long time.

Without further adieu, here is my wish list plan for accumulating 3D technology.  Hopefully it craters after earnings, which I will be holding through:

DDD04102014

Doubling Down: Doing The Dirty

Everyone has a different style of trading.  These methods are forged by our own mental aptitudes and the experiences we accumulate in the marketplace.  Most of the time I want to own momentum stocks not because they are momentum stocks, but because they are the companies who have operations that actually interest me.  The challenge is managing the type of price action you can expect from the likes of Twitter or Facebook or Cree.

How about Chinese websites?  It seems like a good idea to have a few of the most popular sites from ASIA around, but good luck stomaching the daily movements.  This compelling story stock is a wild beast and riding it requires patience and strategy.

I put tons of time and research and machine hours into taking better market entries—entries which skew statistics in my favor.  That does not rule out order flow going against my entry.  One type of trade I take is to enter an oversold stock I like with a partial long.  Sometimes I take half positions, other times a third.  But I do so with a plan.  Therefore, I will lay out my plan, in the naked, for how I intend to play SINA, a stock as violent as they come.  Behold:

DAILY CHART:

SINA_daily

WEEKLY CHART:

SINA_weekly

The best trades take time and often fly in the face of recent market activity.  The above road map is how I will catch a momentum rabbit by its tail.  I’ll be keeping tabs on this one more gregariously than my recent trades.  More quality, less quantity positions, yes yes?

I never made my point, the point this post title alludes to.  If you are going to double down on a position, or average in, you better have a plan and stick to it when you are in the heat.  Hell that’s life in a nutshell so get out there and execute.  Plan and execute, plan and execute.

 

Pressing Any Momentum

There is no game in town better then momentum swing trading, in my very humble opinion.  It just has the potential for so much given the proper risk strategy.  The play is essentially to buy into the best looking charts in the most momentous stocks and try to hold on to the one or two positions that go beast mode while the rest do nothing/bleed you out.  Managing the bleeders is the bulk of the labor.

The other game is intraday scalps in the futures.  There were a few opportunities today before we went catatonic.  Overall, I was waiting for some aggressive selling but it never quite showed up.  Therefore, I put on weekly YOLOs in LULU.  The weather is breaking and with the change comes streets literally lined with women in yoga pants and skirts.  It feels festive to put a side bet on LULU into the weekly close, especially while we trade in the viscous gap region.

I took another scale in the weekly TSLA calls I bought last week.  This is the “one or two” positions I need to not muff to make this whole idea work.  I took a solid scale intraday at the first peak, it felt good.  The execution was solid and I didn’t sell the whole position—a folly which would have me level 3 frustrated because of how the stock ended the day.

Social media took a burn mostly today, led by YELP which was caught on the receiving end of an FTC document from a few weeks back getting passed around.  I am right about at my risk extreme for this position.  However, it did not breach.  Thus I will have to just tolerate the potential risk of a gap lower tomorrow.  This is one of the drawbacks of swing/momentum trading, but you diversify so one loser does not derail you.

I bought some KNDI today once it fell well off its high of the day.  I have little else to report.  The intermediate timeframe is getting a look I know and love, thus I am pressing my longs into overhead supply a bit more.

In business, not just trading, momentum is your best friend.  If you can get a little bit of it, keep it rolling or else you will have to break the static force of friction again.

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