Butterscotch Candies and REITS

447 views

The calendar presses onward, with each moon, and with it comes change, for your boy Raul in June.

Festivities like luncheons and local elections now fancy my attention. There’s a bingo hall down the road that’s calling my name too.

I’m old now, you see, and I intend to reflect my mature dogma via the stocked market. I started by selling all those new fandangle internet companies and today I started buying DOC. It’s a REIT, invested in the types of places I’ll soon live, homes of the nursing variety.

Now leave me alone, the Price Is Right is on the teevee.

 

A Strategic Purchase

955 views

I am flexing my Old Testament muscles into the close. Exodus is completely changing the way I select stocks. Usually my ideas evolve out of bigger themes I believe in. One such theme has been energy. I like energy. Everyone’s hooked on it. Take it away for a week and you’ll see what I mean.

Energy is tricky though. Entire countries are dependent upon the sale of natural energy resources. Thus the political theater, special interest, and other powers well beyond the means of your boy Raul are at play. Thus if I am to even step into this arena I need institutional grade weaponry.

I took a position in SAVE today. It’s serves as part of a bigger energy trade I am working. The position consists of XLE, OIS, AAL, and SAVE [listed largest to smallest].

Per the Weekly Strategy Session, I wanted to see energy plays strong early in the week. The thing is, I don’t entirely trust oil bulls. Here’s why:

CL_03252015

Weakness in oil has potential to stimulate the share prices of airlines. Also, if you read into the CPI data out yesterday, the airline prices are going up despite the deals in oil. Go figure.

Now I turn to Exodus. My timing has been mushy lately. I’ve also been buying stupid companies with unacceptable fundamentals. Now I can quickly scan fundamentals before execution. Have a look at a few screens on $SAVE, where business is booming and their valuation is still reasonable:

SAVE_FUNDIES

Then there is the real meat of Exodus and what makes its more powerful than anyone else’s screeners and tools, the predictive element. It is flagging oversold on the 12-month algo with nice stats behind it:

SAVE_OS

Finally, from a technical perspective, which is now my least important parameter but mainly a risk profile tool, we are on day three down so it’s likely to become a bit rocky for the bears. Also, we’re at the low end of a range that the shares have traded through. Thus, despite looking like a knife catch today, it’s a reasonable zone to take some risk.

When dealing with cavemen, you’ve got to get biblical. Godspeed mates.

Why Are We Talking?

730 views

snakeplissken

There’s a new president of the internet, the collective voice of the populace. Adored, respected, the Twitterati go about shaping the direction of global resources with succinct brevity. Therefore despite its heady valuation and premium pricing, it is without doubt I intend to hold equity in this company until it grows into its lanky body and sends share price much higher.

Smaller minds may start feeling ants crawling about their pants to book their gains. I have a whole new vision into stocks as of today. You see, I have been granted early access to Exodus. As a result my computing power has exponentially expanded, and my grasp of micro-drivers is becoming dangerously acute.

On the market front, as long as The [Kurt] Russell continues to comport itself like a leader, its behooves you to take a few steps up the risk ladder.

THIS WILL BE A LONG WEEK

625 views

Statistically speaking, this week is no longer in duration than any other. However, by process of super computers running 1000s of hours of probabilities and research, one can draw the conclusion we are in for a grind haus.

In these conditions it is imperative you take care to not overly tighten risk. On the flip side, chasing a move in either direction will likely result in your receiving a swift castration.

If you’re working options, this means making sure your momo pocket is heating up before putting the bacon in the skillet.

I am exercising my right to expand my timeframe a bit, and since I love small caps so much, all I have done today is buy a metric butt load of CHGG common stock. Risk is well out of the way so feel free to go hunt it, bastard internet algos.

It takes every piece of self control I’ve got to not stomp my foot to the floor long here. Instead I will eat this elephant one bite at a time.

Cut The Lights Out

571 views

If you have been around these parts a few years, then you know Zillow was one of my favorite stocks to go long. It was a momentum darling. The company is a social beacon of top-notch mobile phone capabilities. As a bonus kicker, their hands are in the real estate cookie jar, a jar being nursed back to health by record low interest rates.

I used it extensively while I hunted down my first home. I would sit in the third stall of my corporate bathroom and thumb through listings. If I found something my agent overlooked I would pace the hallways of my mouse maze accosting his oversight. Zillow was showing me more than the agent. So cool!

Today is different. Today Trulia is public too. Today Zillow is stuck at $100/share after being a dog for half of 2014. Today they have a looming lawsuit over their “frat house” culture and a delayed merger with, um, Truila.

Anyhow, it has a few catalysts and I present the short-selling case first from a longer-term then from a short term trade management chart. Like any idea, it could be wrong, and we want to have some risk in place for when it is.

That way, if it flips back to totally awesome frat dude with “bros and hoes” tattooed on its back then I can calmly walk up to their beer keg and fill my cup.

Other shorts of interest are MANU vs $16.15, AMZN vs. $313, BBBY vs swing high, GILD vs $97, and WFM back below $50 vs $52

Z_01052015

ZshortTerm_01052015

RAUL BUY: $UGAZ

491 views

As the mothership is assaulted with howling 50mph winds I am reminded of just how harsh the winter conditions can become in the north. The gas trade is not for you faint of heart Alcoa types. This market is a battle ground strewn with the corpses of men who waged battle with the gods.

Their folly was resisting to the flow of nature. This flow is something I am very in tune with, something cultivated through hours of deep oneness with the earth. In short, do not bet against the man with the gilded heart, for it shines a blinding light upon the galaxy.

Weekly Strategy Session clients, you have my road map for this idea. Do not let risk get away from you if you follow. And may the whip of Boreas lash the faces of our enemies.

Why I’m Hot for Tenacious $Z

499 views

Let’s look at how simple trading can be if we remove the noise.  Below is a weekly chart of Zillow.  You do not need any indicators except price bars.  Even price bars have their limitations.  All we attempt to glean from a chart is the behavior of supply and demand.  This is a very physical force in nature that drives movement.

The physiological $100 print was the scene of sellers for quite some time.  They sat there, on the offer, absorbing the demand of buyers.  Their staying power was enough to cause a correction nearly 30% lower.  This was not just longs taking profits. The short float is reported to be over 30% in this stock.  There are short sellers who live at $100, and they took $60 dollars worth of heat in 2014.  Some of them might have some lingering traumatic stress from the event and seeing price return to this level allows them to scratch their idea.

Others, who sold their $40 shares at $100 only to see price rocket to $160 now can jump back on where they left off.

These are just hypothetical characters to envision when wrapping your mind around how prior resistance is converted into support.  Markets are the net of all interacting humans’ behaviors.  Nothing more.

I have no Z position, but I love it right here, especially if we see another dip that lets me in next week:

Z_Nov_2014

Lingering

495 views

Nothing negates a failed auction quite like a slow and sideways trade right at the swing high.  The quiet manner by which the market lingers at swing high suggests two things.  First, the market is not sharply rejecting higher prices.  Instead we are building acceptance at these prices.  Second, the slow action suggests the market might be waiting for new information before moving elsewhere.

Under the hood of the market, the internals are showing an interesting rotation to start the week.  Most interesting is today’s weakness in retail which has become a widely discussed area expecting some positive rotation.  It is a simple trade to understand and started showing early signs of working last week.  However, one must keep an open mind that the whole idea could take some heat before ultimately playing out into Thanksgiving.   Shares in EXPR, ANF, JCP, and AEO are showing signs of relative weakness and LULU reversed its early pop.  On the flip side we can see rotation into risk especially in security software, China names, and solar.

Overall the grind higher makes it tough to short, especially individual stocks who could squeeze at any moment.  And on the other side, taking longs requires proper risk profiles to your trades and overall book in case we see a leg down quickly materialize.

The top three trades I am stalking into the close are YELP, DANG, and SCOK. All long ideas, especially if bulls sustain trade above the zone from the daily mid (4163.75) to opening swing high (4161.25).

I Will Never Sell These $TSLA Shares

462 views

Sometimes you have to toss your entire school of thought out the window because someone logically teaches you something.  Your foundation stones, scribed with hammer and chisel, explode them on your knee and then open your mind to change.

Your favorite vagrant stock picker uses these charts to assess swing trades.  My most recent entry into Tesla was for the ‘200 role’ which is a power move to $250 a share reserved only for the hottest of momo stud muffins. Lately I sit here, filling up my subcompact with sub $3.00 benzino, watching these Saudi Arabians push the black tea down, and news flow looking grim.  To make matters worse, the market was running a rout, this company has some despicable valuation, and the technical picture is a bit dicey.

Let me show you something before cleansing the earth by burning it to ash and smoke.  This is a daily candle chart of The Tesla Motors aka TSLA.  What it printed yesterday looked like a textbook start to another wave lower.

TSLA_Daily_Oct

Then, on cue, like the guy keeps a technical analyst on staff, the most brazen CEO of our time takes out the South African whip and lashes the media.  Oh, the drama of it all:

Said technical picture is now moot, the auction has pulled a 180, and the torque behind this move is spine bending.

Let this be a lesson to all of yous.  Tech analysis has its limitations.  It is simply a method of measuring supply and demand and their effects.  But when you have a brilliant company on the edge of scientific discovery led by a Swiss knife of brilliance, just sit back and never sell those shares.

These old TSLA charts will also be burned for good measure:

TSLA_DEC12

TSLA_July192014

TSLA_08112014

$TWTR Will Save Us

480 views

The market is off to a real grinder of a start as we barrel headlong into a series of high impact economic announcements.  And though many traders are focused on asset purchasing pace, interest rates, and oil prices, momentum traders will be watching Twitter.

Just one scant year into public trade and this stock has seen its fair share of drama.  Yet, the company has seen very little change to its overall value—it has traded flat over the time.  Flat, mind you, is relative because along the way have been rotations fit for a king.  As we head into the first birthday of trade, and earnings after the bell, here are some basic price levels to have in mind:

TWTR_daily_10272014

Being a long, long since day one to some varying degree or another, I am certain this will be Twitters ‘coming out’ day where it proves doubters of the concept to be introverted clown babies.  This company has become one of the primary cogs of human existence.  It is trading like crap today, another solid sign for the chuckle hut.   Twitter has the added bonus or reporting after the Yelp and  the Amazon face plants where a notable shift in investor perception occurred in the growth complex.  Put simply, both companies were punished for being weak.  Here is the relative performance of TWTR, YELP, AMZN, and FB since the BABA top:

 

TWTR_COMP
Twitter is hovering in the middle of the pack, just slightly under-performing FB who reports tomorrow.  Will these two social media juggernauts join the ranks of our other two internet pillars?  Absolutely  not, both will crush and guide sending shorts to run to the hopium pipe.  My bed is made, long of TWTR in common terms, willing to risk to zero if need be to see this company ride to glory.

Butterscotch Candies and REITS

447 views

The calendar presses onward, with each moon, and with it comes change, for your boy Raul in June.

Festivities like luncheons and local elections now fancy my attention. There’s a bingo hall down the road that’s calling my name too.

I’m old now, you see, and I intend to reflect my mature dogma via the stocked market. I started by selling all those new fandangle internet companies and today I started buying DOC. It’s a REIT, invested in the types of places I’ll soon live, homes of the nursing variety.

Now leave me alone, the Price Is Right is on the teevee.

 

A Strategic Purchase

955 views

I am flexing my Old Testament muscles into the close. Exodus is completely changing the way I select stocks. Usually my ideas evolve out of bigger themes I believe in. One such theme has been energy. I like energy. Everyone’s hooked on it. Take it away for a week and you’ll see what I mean.

Energy is tricky though. Entire countries are dependent upon the sale of natural energy resources. Thus the political theater, special interest, and other powers well beyond the means of your boy Raul are at play. Thus if I am to even step into this arena I need institutional grade weaponry.

I took a position in SAVE today. It’s serves as part of a bigger energy trade I am working. The position consists of XLE, OIS, AAL, and SAVE [listed largest to smallest].

Per the Weekly Strategy Session, I wanted to see energy plays strong early in the week. The thing is, I don’t entirely trust oil bulls. Here’s why:

CL_03252015

Weakness in oil has potential to stimulate the share prices of airlines. Also, if you read into the CPI data out yesterday, the airline prices are going up despite the deals in oil. Go figure.

Now I turn to Exodus. My timing has been mushy lately. I’ve also been buying stupid companies with unacceptable fundamentals. Now I can quickly scan fundamentals before execution. Have a look at a few screens on $SAVE, where business is booming and their valuation is still reasonable:

SAVE_FUNDIES

Then there is the real meat of Exodus and what makes its more powerful than anyone else’s screeners and tools, the predictive element. It is flagging oversold on the 12-month algo with nice stats behind it:

SAVE_OS

Finally, from a technical perspective, which is now my least important parameter but mainly a risk profile tool, we are on day three down so it’s likely to become a bit rocky for the bears. Also, we’re at the low end of a range that the shares have traded through. Thus, despite looking like a knife catch today, it’s a reasonable zone to take some risk.

When dealing with cavemen, you’ve got to get biblical. Godspeed mates.

Why Are We Talking?

730 views

snakeplissken

There’s a new president of the internet, the collective voice of the populace. Adored, respected, the Twitterati go about shaping the direction of global resources with succinct brevity. Therefore despite its heady valuation and premium pricing, it is without doubt I intend to hold equity in this company until it grows into its lanky body and sends share price much higher.

Smaller minds may start feeling ants crawling about their pants to book their gains. I have a whole new vision into stocks as of today. You see, I have been granted early access to Exodus. As a result my computing power has exponentially expanded, and my grasp of micro-drivers is becoming dangerously acute.

On the market front, as long as The [Kurt] Russell continues to comport itself like a leader, its behooves you to take a few steps up the risk ladder.

THIS WILL BE A LONG WEEK

625 views

Statistically speaking, this week is no longer in duration than any other. However, by process of super computers running 1000s of hours of probabilities and research, one can draw the conclusion we are in for a grind haus.

In these conditions it is imperative you take care to not overly tighten risk. On the flip side, chasing a move in either direction will likely result in your receiving a swift castration.

If you’re working options, this means making sure your momo pocket is heating up before putting the bacon in the skillet.

I am exercising my right to expand my timeframe a bit, and since I love small caps so much, all I have done today is buy a metric butt load of CHGG common stock. Risk is well out of the way so feel free to go hunt it, bastard internet algos.

It takes every piece of self control I’ve got to not stomp my foot to the floor long here. Instead I will eat this elephant one bite at a time.

Cut The Lights Out

571 views

If you have been around these parts a few years, then you know Zillow was one of my favorite stocks to go long. It was a momentum darling. The company is a social beacon of top-notch mobile phone capabilities. As a bonus kicker, their hands are in the real estate cookie jar, a jar being nursed back to health by record low interest rates.

I used it extensively while I hunted down my first home. I would sit in the third stall of my corporate bathroom and thumb through listings. If I found something my agent overlooked I would pace the hallways of my mouse maze accosting his oversight. Zillow was showing me more than the agent. So cool!

Today is different. Today Trulia is public too. Today Zillow is stuck at $100/share after being a dog for half of 2014. Today they have a looming lawsuit over their “frat house” culture and a delayed merger with, um, Truila.

Anyhow, it has a few catalysts and I present the short-selling case first from a longer-term then from a short term trade management chart. Like any idea, it could be wrong, and we want to have some risk in place for when it is.

That way, if it flips back to totally awesome frat dude with “bros and hoes” tattooed on its back then I can calmly walk up to their beer keg and fill my cup.

Other shorts of interest are MANU vs $16.15, AMZN vs. $313, BBBY vs swing high, GILD vs $97, and WFM back below $50 vs $52

Z_01052015

ZshortTerm_01052015

RAUL BUY: $UGAZ

491 views

As the mothership is assaulted with howling 50mph winds I am reminded of just how harsh the winter conditions can become in the north. The gas trade is not for you faint of heart Alcoa types. This market is a battle ground strewn with the corpses of men who waged battle with the gods.

Their folly was resisting to the flow of nature. This flow is something I am very in tune with, something cultivated through hours of deep oneness with the earth. In short, do not bet against the man with the gilded heart, for it shines a blinding light upon the galaxy.

Weekly Strategy Session clients, you have my road map for this idea. Do not let risk get away from you if you follow. And may the whip of Boreas lash the faces of our enemies.

Why I’m Hot for Tenacious $Z

499 views

Let’s look at how simple trading can be if we remove the noise.  Below is a weekly chart of Zillow.  You do not need any indicators except price bars.  Even price bars have their limitations.  All we attempt to glean from a chart is the behavior of supply and demand.  This is a very physical force in nature that drives movement.

The physiological $100 print was the scene of sellers for quite some time.  They sat there, on the offer, absorbing the demand of buyers.  Their staying power was enough to cause a correction nearly 30% lower.  This was not just longs taking profits. The short float is reported to be over 30% in this stock.  There are short sellers who live at $100, and they took $60 dollars worth of heat in 2014.  Some of them might have some lingering traumatic stress from the event and seeing price return to this level allows them to scratch their idea.

Others, who sold their $40 shares at $100 only to see price rocket to $160 now can jump back on where they left off.

These are just hypothetical characters to envision when wrapping your mind around how prior resistance is converted into support.  Markets are the net of all interacting humans’ behaviors.  Nothing more.

I have no Z position, but I love it right here, especially if we see another dip that lets me in next week:

Z_Nov_2014

Lingering

495 views

Nothing negates a failed auction quite like a slow and sideways trade right at the swing high.  The quiet manner by which the market lingers at swing high suggests two things.  First, the market is not sharply rejecting higher prices.  Instead we are building acceptance at these prices.  Second, the slow action suggests the market might be waiting for new information before moving elsewhere.

Under the hood of the market, the internals are showing an interesting rotation to start the week.  Most interesting is today’s weakness in retail which has become a widely discussed area expecting some positive rotation.  It is a simple trade to understand and started showing early signs of working last week.  However, one must keep an open mind that the whole idea could take some heat before ultimately playing out into Thanksgiving.   Shares in EXPR, ANF, JCP, and AEO are showing signs of relative weakness and LULU reversed its early pop.  On the flip side we can see rotation into risk especially in security software, China names, and solar.

Overall the grind higher makes it tough to short, especially individual stocks who could squeeze at any moment.  And on the other side, taking longs requires proper risk profiles to your trades and overall book in case we see a leg down quickly materialize.

The top three trades I am stalking into the close are YELP, DANG, and SCOK. All long ideas, especially if bulls sustain trade above the zone from the daily mid (4163.75) to opening swing high (4161.25).

I Will Never Sell These $TSLA Shares

462 views

Sometimes you have to toss your entire school of thought out the window because someone logically teaches you something.  Your foundation stones, scribed with hammer and chisel, explode them on your knee and then open your mind to change.

Your favorite vagrant stock picker uses these charts to assess swing trades.  My most recent entry into Tesla was for the ‘200 role’ which is a power move to $250 a share reserved only for the hottest of momo stud muffins. Lately I sit here, filling up my subcompact with sub $3.00 benzino, watching these Saudi Arabians push the black tea down, and news flow looking grim.  To make matters worse, the market was running a rout, this company has some despicable valuation, and the technical picture is a bit dicey.

Let me show you something before cleansing the earth by burning it to ash and smoke.  This is a daily candle chart of The Tesla Motors aka TSLA.  What it printed yesterday looked like a textbook start to another wave lower.

TSLA_Daily_Oct

Then, on cue, like the guy keeps a technical analyst on staff, the most brazen CEO of our time takes out the South African whip and lashes the media.  Oh, the drama of it all:

Said technical picture is now moot, the auction has pulled a 180, and the torque behind this move is spine bending.

Let this be a lesson to all of yous.  Tech analysis has its limitations.  It is simply a method of measuring supply and demand and their effects.  But when you have a brilliant company on the edge of scientific discovery led by a Swiss knife of brilliance, just sit back and never sell those shares.

These old TSLA charts will also be burned for good measure:

TSLA_DEC12

TSLA_July192014

TSLA_08112014

$TWTR Will Save Us

480 views

The market is off to a real grinder of a start as we barrel headlong into a series of high impact economic announcements.  And though many traders are focused on asset purchasing pace, interest rates, and oil prices, momentum traders will be watching Twitter.

Just one scant year into public trade and this stock has seen its fair share of drama.  Yet, the company has seen very little change to its overall value—it has traded flat over the time.  Flat, mind you, is relative because along the way have been rotations fit for a king.  As we head into the first birthday of trade, and earnings after the bell, here are some basic price levels to have in mind:

TWTR_daily_10272014

Being a long, long since day one to some varying degree or another, I am certain this will be Twitters ‘coming out’ day where it proves doubters of the concept to be introverted clown babies.  This company has become one of the primary cogs of human existence.  It is trading like crap today, another solid sign for the chuckle hut.   Twitter has the added bonus or reporting after the Yelp and  the Amazon face plants where a notable shift in investor perception occurred in the growth complex.  Put simply, both companies were punished for being weak.  Here is the relative performance of TWTR, YELP, AMZN, and FB since the BABA top:

 

TWTR_COMP
Twitter is hovering in the middle of the pack, just slightly under-performing FB who reports tomorrow.  Will these two social media juggernauts join the ranks of our other two internet pillars?  Absolutely  not, both will crush and guide sending shorts to run to the hopium pipe.  My bed is made, long of TWTR in common terms, willing to risk to zero if need be to see this company ride to glory.

Previous Posts by Raul3