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SOLD 1/3 of $TSLA

This was one of the hardest decisions of my life. I sold a third of my Tesla position. It is still my largest holding, but now much less ridiculous.

What a run.

Still bullish, but come’on. A boy has to sell once in a while.

Thank you Elon (Praise and Glory to The Leader).

I have no idea what to do with the proceeds. I am going to go pull weeds and think about it.

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Billionaires win again! Tesla shares up a quick +50 bucks after fascinating quarter

Our Dear Leader led his team of scientists and engineers to do what no one else on the planet was capable of—executing a massive manufacturing strategy to assume control everything. Transportation, energy, diplomacy with China.  Say no more.  If you aren’t invested in Tesla at these prices you’re a fool.  All those “Idoit’s Guide To…” books are written for you, the idiot.

Someone on iBankCoin had/has/continues to have a massive $TSLA position. Consider this a humble victory lap.  Praise and Glory to The Leader. I share with you His Tweet regarding earnings, and then I bid you well:

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Averaged up on CRISPR

I was going through my archives and realized I haven’t messed your mind up with my CRISPR immortality chatter since April 2017.  Back then I was way out on the fringe of society, living in a van, preferably down by a river when possible.  My exuberance has been tampered several times since then.

I remember being on the final leg of a ski bum road trip across the west, meeting up with some corporate friends at mammoth mountain, who had ridden that nice Italian-sounding CRISPR stock, Sangamo, higher with me since around 3.50.  They were of course stoked to see me, first because they’d caught a fresh dumping of powder out on Chair 9 earlier in the day, and next because there we were, toasting our commanding of the financial markets with fireball and mountain ale.

I had been to seven other mountains before then, including two days at Jackson Hole, having caught powder on all of them, and was thinking with a clarity reserved for the truly satisfied mind.

They wanted to buy more Sangamo.  Whatever, this sounds like a brag at best, a downright fiction at worst.  I told them to instead sell a third or their position from 3.5o and lock in the profits.  I did the same a few days earlier, selling a third of my original position from inside the RV.  Look at this freaking chart:

We scaled 1/3 of our position at swing high.  Santa Lucia, say what you will about charts and timing and technical analysis guff—the right ingredients and you can think clearly, man.  I said to him, a Santa Barbarian mind you, I said, “We know very little about CRISPR science.  All we know is the rich have aspired to immortality since hording religious icons in Byzantium.  They have good reason to live.  Life has been good to them, they have complete command of reality and want to enjoy here on earth the fruits of their power.  That’s all we know.  Scale a third.”

It was a hard sell, selling them on selling but I had been targeting $25 all along. Old swing highs.  Not rocket science.

Anyways, clearly these people harp me as they see their net worth wither away, watching their papered gains on the remaining 2/3rds dwindle away, along with their aspirations for Tesla cars and coastal real estate.

What do we do now, RAUL, you fucking cave dwelling fuck?

I couldn’t care less.  I can live off of canned fish and river water.  Probably longer than a person subjected to the stresses of corporate servitude.  But I like CRISPR…I like selling rich assholes the promise of immortality.

So I would tell them.  I’m holding off until November.  This wasn’t some prophetic vision.  I just feel like I have/had a sense of the overarching sentiment surrounding this whole CRISPR situation.  Money changes people.  It makes them confident.  Which is fine.  Sometimes it makes them overconfident.  Which is fine too, but overconfidence opens up space for a scrappy and resourceful competitor to take.  There is a real balance to nature.

The bill always comes due.

Enthusiasm had returned to science, to immortality, to CRISPR—to the stock market in general.  This chart is quietly passed around by a small circle of traders:

And as you might imagine, I sensed it when people started to panic about Sangamo.  A fall from $25 to $16 in two months (March-April 2018) puts some panic in people.  Hahaha, funny humans.

Anyways, I figured we had to make panic lows.  After which there would be a violent bounce higher before making another new low, which meant another long, bitter, shitty stretch of discouragement was in the cards.  So I figured wait until November, then take it from there.

I pay attention to things most of yous overlook.  It’s a product of consuming raw inputs as opposed to cooked up media bits or other foolishness.  Raw stock market interactions.  That is how I measure the temperature of the collective human mind.  Say what you will about my school of thought.  It lets me slide through the financial complex like a fox, snagging meals along the way.  No ones master.  No ones slave.

Anyways, something caught my interest on last Sunday’s strategy session.  During our first material bounce of the Great Bear Market of 2018 [sarc] the Health Care sector turned out the best 5-day return, look:

So I’m sitting here Monday, trying to take the week off because my signals were crossed, and the stock market is being obliterated.  I remembered the conversation I had with one of my closest confidants, ROBERTO BREGANTE, and how I had informed him that I had begun stalking SGMO—since it was now November and Sangamo was having its shit tossed last week.  I told him resting bid at 10, resting bid at 10…might inch up higher if buyers step in before then.

The truth was I had no resting bid.  I never rest bids unless I absolutely have to.  I was here Monday morning, sending emails and pacing around Mothership and preparing morning trading plans and shit.  When I dialed up a quote on the NAS100 futures at about 11am I was surprised at what all of you had done to the stock market.  I didn’t look for a reason why it happened beyond a cursory scan of Twitter.  I realized nothing horrible had happened, aside from a shite tonne of primitive missiles being fired from the Gaza Strip, a variety of shoddy ballistics fired towards the citizens of Israel.  This is like the Holy Land equivalent of a mass shooting in America.  It has almost zero likelihood of needing to be priced into the stock market.  So I directed my attention back to the NASDAQ futures.

I went long 6833 despite it being my week off.  I was in a jovial mood so I live tweeted the trade.

Since I was back at the trading turrets on Mothership, I dialed up Sangamo.  And there it was, back at 10, right where I wanted it.  While capturing 65 nasdaq points, I watched to see if buyers would step into Sangamo at $10, and when it seemed they did I added to the position.

This is my first SGMO buy since about 3.50.

I hope this blog entry doesn’t come off as some kind of brag.  I also hope you do not take action based off this blog post.  All I am trying to do is expand upon my thought process when investing.  I feel like you have to bring a unique perspective to a game as competitive as speculating if you intend to produce unique returns.  That being said, everyone is different and their ability to dedicate resources to their way of life or their mind or investment process is different.  When I was a younger lad, I scoured the internet for real people who operated inside the financial complex, starving for information on how they do it.  That is why I blog.  I blog as if leaving a bottled message for 21 year old me.

Godspeed old sport.

Hopefully an entry like this gives you some insight and makes some light bulbs emit lumens into a dark corner of your own mind–expanding your investor mind.

Or not, whatever.  I am longer CRISPR as of today via more shares of that nice Italian sounding CRISPR stock SANGAMO.

ciao ciao kiss kiss

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Regarding Twitter

Twitter shares had their second worst daily performance in history Friday after meeting, mind you, meeting Wall Street’s earnings expectations and exceeding their pointless banker ass analyst estimates for sales.

I can tell very quickly it was the second worst single day for TWTR by using Exodus.  I just filter the ‘% Chg’ column and voila, a list of every ultra violent day in the company’s brief history of public trade:

Before I go into why I’m bullish on Twitter let me reiterate that I use Exodus as part of every single trading decision and I use Exodus when I blog.  If that turns you off, let me set the record straight—no matter what you say or what you do, you’ll never work this game like me.  I don’t make a penny off Exodus.  Maybe one day if I add value instead of taking value The Fly might pay me.

Free access. That’s it.

Meanwhile the shit I’m doing this year?  Insanity.  I’m running a book of 54 stocks that’s rising faster than the NASDAQ.  I own and keep adding to a massive Tesla position despite an army of Luddites who tweet me in all caps at night.  I’m climbing volcanoes like David Attenborough while trading OVERBOUGHT signals with leverage to victory, putting photos to market on Shutterstock and Getty, reading old fiction and new philosophy.  Running summer camp for Detroit investors.  They open auditoriums for me in the murder mitten and I kill it.  The fuck outta here with that Exodus to pay the bills shit.  I pull cash out the NAS-100 faster than some rich kid at a ATM speed dialing for a yatch re-up.  I’m putting a fucking bocci ball court in the backyard.

Twitter had a good quarter.  They sold $710 million dollars worth of internet stuff in 3 months.  They made a profit.  They boosted interaction rates.  They deleted a few million robot accounts.  Jack Dorsey is still a handsome dude.  Kanye and Kim invite him to their barbecues.

Flashback to 2016.  Trump beat the entire world at Who Wants To Be A President?  For better or worse.  This is America.  The old guard got caught sleeping.  Predators made a move, predominantly using Twitter and it worked.  Too bad.

Now ‘conservatives’ think they’re shadow banned because of their political standing.  They aren’t.  They tweet like foul beasts.  The algorithm censors their crass behavior.  Guess what?  It happens to me too when I tweet about eating humans like a meat lover eats swine or chicken.  The platform down ranks violence.  The opposite of WorldStar.

As for robot accounts.  They are pervasive across the internet.  I have 12.4k followers on Instagram (@vincalim, get at me!).   Those are robots.  I’m sure of it.  I bought them off fivverr as a joke in 2014 and now I can’t be rid of them.  Instagram, Facebook’s pride.  Everyone thought Mark was nuts when he paid $1 billion for Insta in 2012.  Now he’s a skin suit full of lizards that Washington DC fears.

There are millions of bots on every platform.  If Twitter is being proactive about removing them it will eventually be rewarded.  Monthly active users (MAUs) is a stupid data point tracked by vest-wearing choads in midtown.

Twitter is the most powerful platform in the world.  My stance on this matter is permanent.  You can command an army using hashtags and retweets.  My money is long until all-time highs or total bust.

I’m not some scared baby who only wants to be with a stock or crypto-thingy for the good times.  Long on the up moves, short on the downs.  Those people probably tried riding through bad times once and choked.  Maybe they don’t know how to win in America, how time and hustle play out.  So now apparently, these market timers loaf around swimming pools, trading forex on laptops.  Try that out sometime and see how it goes.

Ask me how I know.

Twitter can go lower in the days and weeks to come.  I’m not here to make predictions.  If you want predictions, go away.  I am here to tell you that I am long TWTR and to encourage you to augment your approach with robots before you’re put out the game by better equipped competition.  I need you around or it’ll just be me verse the institutions.  Which is fine, but we could all be chipping away at the pillars of finance so they crumble sooner.

I bought more Twitter at closing bell Friday.  I will buy more next quarter.  And the quarter after.  Said shares will remain on my book until we take out all time highs or until the stock trades $0.00 or some other bastardized form of zero.

I dollar-cost-average any stock that isn’t chosen by Exodus robots.  If I am buying a stock then I’m loyal.  The world needs more loyalty but it probably won’t happen.

Finally, an edit tweet feature is absurd. Stop asking.  Maybe you don’t understand how to tweet.  Bring your a-game.  Twitter isn’t for pikers.

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Nukes are more fun to watch then fireworks and my new alternative energy investment

I could have been trading NASDAQ futures this morning or sending important emails or scratching a few tasks off the old ‘to-do’ list.  Nope.  Instead I watched fifty or so nuclear explosions uploaded by the Lawrence Livermore national laboratory.  They decided to digitize the footage from about 200 nuke tests.  I just kept watching nuke-after-nuke.  Here are some stand-out nukes:

It could be all these weak ass fireworks going off around me that has me on a nuke bender.  My neighborhood is a mix of pickup truck loving Americans and old country Italians.  I venture you can guess who is blowing shit up.  Or it could be my recent obsession with dark forces and superstition, which is a close relative to faith.

Along the lines of faith, I initiated a new long term stock position late last week in Terraform Power, Inc.  I say long term but I need to learn more about their management and we need to break up-and-away from this wedge otherwise I’ll be forced to shift the funds into Tesla instead:

Because the position is based on faith in my One True Leader, Elon,  The belief being that Elon (Praise Him) and his team of scientists and engineers are Mankind’s Last Hope, and that they will succeed and save us from the destructive powers of big oil.  That they will continue to accelerate the adoption of alternative energy and electric cars.  And that some alternative energy stocks will grow rapidly as Elon leads us to greener pastures.  All the other car companies will of course stagnate.  They won’t perish through.  General Motors is to big to actually participate in real capitalism.

Faith keeps me tethered to Tesla.  I am not thrilled with the current share prices.  I would love to see it come down to $100 or so, allowing me to accumulate shares through my mid-30s at a discount rate, before they ultimately become the biggest company in the world while I become an old man.

So I am investing in some ancillary plays for now, based on the same immutable faith I have in Elon (Glory to The Leader).

We need to blow another nuke off.  All the old footage is weak.  We need to use those high resolution, slow motion cameras to really see the obscenity of a rapid nuclear reaction in full HD.  Just one.  And set up lots of good props.  Like if we are going to do it let’s do it right.

 

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Index model neutral,quant update to push through Monday

It’s funny how time keeps going by.  Here we are 26 weeks further down the line.   Exodus strategy session number 189.

Things are different this time.

At least that is what we need to tell ourselves.  Then we can pick up where we left off, push a little harder on the flywheel hoping it spins longer than last time.

26 weeks later and it’s July 1st.  The Julian midpoint of 2018, off by a few human hours give-or-take.  A good time to decide where I’ll commit my finite supply of time and liquidity.

TIME AND LIQUIDITY.  The currency of freedom.

I have two ways of picking stocks to own. One is quant driven and adjusts quarterly.  I am beta.  Exodus is alpha.  I merely service the robot while it scans human interactions and learns.  Anyway here are the latest picks:

This piece of the quant looks at 6-month returns then weights into the best stocks from the best performing sectors, adding a high shot float kicker where possible.  Here’s how the thing played out during its first trip around the sun. Look at all that alpha:

Next matter of business.  The index model is neutral for a second week.  We are celebrating Independence Day Wednesday.  The markets close early Tuesday.  The algos whisper about a drift higher into the holiday.  Then it could be time for sellers to press again.  Hard to say.  Definitely a holiday week.  Less is more.

Time keeps going by.  The process keeps me from wandering off the path.

Thank you everyone for the nice words of encouragement on my last entry.  I appreciate it very much thank you.  May everyone’s holiday week be refreshing to the mind and body, and may you have ease of being as we head into peak summer heat.

Exodus members, the 189th Strategy Session is live.  Check out the context in Section IV we have a clear ‘tell’ heading into the week.

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NASDAQ settles into balance overnight, here is the Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, briefly probing into the 5/14 range before settling into balance.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began with a gap down-and-out of the large value area that began forming May 15th.  Buyers drove higher off the open and after some two-way trade along the Tuesday low buyers became initiative and the market went trend up into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6957.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 6975 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 6963 setting up a move to target 6989.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 6925.25 setting up a move to target 6900 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Bearish bets have been made against Canada Goose by animal-loving sapiens

Happy early Earth Day lads!

Floods coming.

And until then our job is to help every animal live their best life, at least until mother nature decides to indiscriminately wipe out millions of mammals with floods.  The quants inside Exodus are firing off broad market caution flags that have not been seen in years.  Our only contextual ‘tell’ going into the week has been the PHLX Semiconductor index, which is down more than -4% in Thursday afternoon trade.

These objective data points had me shopping for a bearish swing trade for the first time since June 2017 when I took a loss betting against the NASDAQ.

April 2018 RAUL is different than the June 2017 model.  I have developed a deeper empathy for the animal spirit, in all its forms.  I have not traded individual stocks since I swore off the bastards back in 2015.  Yes, I have been at this game a long time lads.  My archives run deep inside the hallowed halls of iBankCoin, a place that was once patronized only by proper ladies and gentlemen.

But I do invest.  I invest using a method I call faith-based investing which basically means I have unwavering belief in a company and their mission and will buy their equity every quarter with no intention of selling—ever—riding the shares right to the pearly gates and leaving them behind for my kin.  Obviously I have to be extremely selective about these stocks because this is an expensive habit.  Tesla is one.  Twitter is another.  CRISPR, AI, and quantum computing themes have me in a few other stocks I shall not mention. Oh, and I also keep a cache of crypto-bucks (all the bitcoins, ethereum, banana coins).

I got enemies though.  I can’t be one of these ‘everything is awesome, always take the high road’ leaders.  I commend those who can.  I have enemies.  I should have washed my hands before I began typing this.  They are covered in soil.   I spent the lunch hour caring for my flower beds.

With dirt on thine hands I am letting it be known the CEO of Canada Goose and his team of murderous trappers are an enemy to RAUL.  As of today I have taken bearish positions against the their company’s equity.

There is more to this trade then faith or karma.  First, the price chart.  I don’t like it.  It reminds me of GoPro circa November 2014.  Great run up after the IPO, consolidation, attempted breakout higher preceding what would become a long, long, march lower.  Much…much…lower ::said aloud with Liam Neeson effect::

Next there is the basic b*tch meter.  These coats are worn by basic b*tches, both genders.  There is a small market of people who actually wear the coats for arctic explorations, the rest are worn by young urban professionals whose dogs have their own instragram accounts.

Thirdly, we are about to enter summer.  The farmers almanac is calling for a dry and hot summer in the north—one that presses extreme heats into late August.  Ergo, nobody is going to buy coats filled with boiled geese bits and dog fur.

Let it be known that I intend to keep bearish positions in place on $GOOS through summer’s end.  I have also joined the PETA awareness campaign against Canada Goose.  We simply ask that they stop the use of animal fur and stop supporting the inhumane trapping industry.  There are plenty of faux alternatives that work just as well, if not better.

That is all I have to say.  Robots are leaning bearish.  My contextual cue is leaning bearish.  And faith-based investing methodology (which cannot be rationally explained) has me choosing $GOOS as a means of extracting fiat currency from the financial markets.

Be well and again, happy Earth Day fellow earth citizens.

RAUL SANTOS, April 19th, 2018

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A permabulls take on Tesla

I have an optimistic bias towards Tesla and anything else Elon Musk touches.  Unlike a journalist, I have told you my bias up front.  Now, let’s look at a few relevant details regarding Tesla.

The bonds everyone is talking about, with the increasing premium?  They are still being serviced.  They do not expire until 2021.  Also news flash: interest rates are going up.  Did you happen to look at $TLT during Monday’s bloodbath?  It was red.  Welcome to the Jerome Powell Federal Reserve.

The Model 3 production numbers that are being repeatedly thrown under the bus, they have issued more than 20,000 VINS.  A Model 3 typically delivers within 9 days of being issued a VIN number.  Here is a Twitter account you can follow to track VINS on your own, without some negative spin being added to it:

Are the Model 3 production numbers below forecasts?  Yes.  But behind every VIN number is a person elated to receive a Tesla, a person who will spread the word of Tesla faster than any traditional disciple ever could.  BEHOLD:

I wonder how much BMW or General Motors or Toyota spent on advertising last year and how many times those add dollars yielded the kind of brand excitement shown above…

Regarding the Model S recall, I believe our very kind and benevolent Leader addressed the media hullabaloo surrounding the recall sufficiently:

I am not here to convince you Tesla is going to succeed and be the biggest company in the world, surpassing Apple slowly, that all at once.  I already believe.  And I have my money where my mouth is, long a considerable amount of $TSLA shares.

The value I can add, aside from being the loudest bull when it matters most, and otherwise quiet, is to show you how I expect $TSLA price action to play out over the next several months.

Here is how I envision Tesla price action playing out, going forward:

Is the above chart accurate?  Perfect?  Not really.  These are broad brush strokes.  With any luck, share price will be compressed for many years, allowing me to continue accumulating shares.  But I think this gives you a sense of my mentality.  I am extremely long term.  The shares I am buying will not be sold.  They will be passed onto my kin.

This is my take as a permabull.  We are in the middle of a negative news cycle, and journalists from all publications are showing their true colors—they despise the hope and change Tesla and Elon bring.

Fine.

I will continue to be a voice of hope in the sea of negativity.  Also I bought more $TSLA today.

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A Closer Look at The Tesla Price Auction

Since none of you care about the NASDAQ, or how to navigate its waves and gyrations, maybe you will pay attention if we talk about how Tesla is trading.

All eyes are on Tesla because the third quarter is over, and they only produced 260 handmade Model 3 cars.  Also there are lurid rumors Elon may be leave his CEO post soon, perhaps to spend more time launching big fucking rockets into space.

Tuesday morning bulls caught an upgrade from Morgan Stanley, who issued a modest price target raise to $379 from $317.

Let us now take notice of what all the above information is.  It is all news bits.  The first came from Tesla, the rumor is internet chatter, and the upgrade is from a firm that manages other people’s wealth.

How do you draw an objective decision from all of it?  Do you feel confident taking action based off of words from other people?

You can go find this out on your own if you want, or you can just sit down and grab a pencil—trades based off of soundbites will not be consistent, and eventually you will lose all your money.

What we need is an objective way to assess the behavior of Tesla that is not static.  We need it to change as events continue to unfold.

Enter auction theory.

Every real transaction must go through the exchange, in the case of Tesla that exchange is the NASDAQ.  When the orders occur time, price, quantity of shares, and whether the order occurred at the bid or the offer.

We use this information to build charts.  Most charts are time-based, and the two charts displayed below are time-based.  The first is a daily chart.  It also is noted with all relevant auction notes, including a method of scoring the auction:

The second chart is hourly.  It is mainly to see where the nearby magnets are.  Powerful ‘magnets’ are areas that are likely to attract price.  These can be seen as zones of heavy volume.  Auction theory expects these areas of heavy volume to be revisited.  Old open gaps are another popular magnet.  The nearest magnet is just a touch above Tuesday’s close price.  It is an open gap left behind last Friday:

At this point the assessment is clear and objective.  The model score is 2.7 which is medium bear.  It is barely medium bear.  From 2.8-3.2 we are neutral.

Since we are bearish we have some simple levels that will tell us new information about whether we are wrong.  If sellers do not defend last Friday’s open gap at 356.86 if/when we close it, we might be wrong.  If sellers do not defend our key Fibonacci retracement around 367.40 then we are wrong.

If price goes back down and probes below the prior swing low 335.64 then we might be right, and a quick trip down to the open gap at 326.25 is in order.  Then we reassess the auction.  Maybe next we test back to the heavy volume zone at 312.14, and so on.

The auction creates a continuous dialogue that is completely separated from the noise of the world.  It you can focus on the auction only, you will find yourself in a better position to consistently execute.

Your job as a trader is to tell the story of the auction and nothing more.  This aids your actions which are calculated and mindful.  No hearsay, just sturdy logic.

This is trading.  It can seem detached from humanity.  I can assure you it is not.

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