Saturday, August 27, 2016
Home / Stock Picks

Stock Picks

Long in Tooth: Takeover Chatter Making The Rounds $FEYE $FSLR


As a bull thrust starts to mature, you begin seeing notes cross the trading desk about takeovers.

They are usually chatter with no legitimate source.

Today’s takeover chatter is on First Solar and FireEye :::cringes:::

$FSLR has traded like a crate of rotten tomatoes during the summer ’16 rally, so it makes sense to try for the ‘takeover rumor’ Hail Mary to help unload this filthy solar laggard:


Same goes for $FEYE aka The Devil himself.  It’s getting a better bump on the rumor.  Keep an eye out for the bulging sack of overhead supply ready to soak up any buy flow:


Here’s how the rumors hit the wires:

10:03:28 FireEye Shares Spike ~3% Higher, Turn Positive; Hearing Traders Passing Around  
Unconfirmed Chatter of Takeover Interest 

10:29:18 First Solar Shares Turn Positive as Traders Passing Around Unconfirmed Takeover  
Chatter, Stock Now Up 1.6% 

You can take these rumors as fact and go long either of these stocks.  I will just sit over here, biding my time and preparing for the return of volatility so I can make hay in the NASDAQ arena.


Comments »

NASDAQ on Auto Pilot Heading into Holiday Weekend


NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring abnormally low range on normal volume.  Price extended up the gains made Thursday overnight before coming into balance.  At 8:30am annualized GDP came in below expectations, at 0.80% vs 0.90% estimate.  The initial reaction is some selling.

Also on the economic docket today we have final May reading of U. of Michigan Confidence at 10am, Fed Chair Yellen talking at the Harvard Radcliffe Day at 10:3am, then Baker Hughs Rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The session was balanced until late in the afternoon when buyers stepped in and pushed the market higher, ending the day at session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for chop.  Look for buyers to continue working higher, with 4524.75 putting a cap on upward action.

Hypo 2 sellers come in and book some gains ahead of the holiday weekend/month end.  Look for a move down to 4485 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 Yellen says something that triggers a bit more liquidation.  We reenter the lower value and explore it, with sellers targeting 4470.50 before we come into two way trade.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


Comments »

Could Best Buy Actually Win And Not Be Another Loser Retail Stock?


Shares of Best Buy have been volatile early on this morning as rumors circulate that a ‘notable market-research firm’ said Q1 sales are trending above analyst estimates.

The retail climate has been absolutely atrocious.  If we go two weeks into the Exodus Strategy Session archives we can recall just how much bodily harm was inflicted on the industry set recently:


Yet over the same time period, Best Buy shares [ticker: BBY] have been more-or-less flat.  Quite curious yes yes?


The chart looks tight.  The kind of chart you can build a position into and manage risk without too much confusion.  However, you need to go into this idea accepting the potential of a 25% draw down before knowing if you’re wrong.  Or you could play it tighter, risk less, size in more, and look to scale sooner.  It is just a matter of how much time you’re willing to commit to the position.


Not many people expect Best Buy to come out swinging.  They are Amazon’s show room.  I imagine Bezos feels rather gay every time he sees a 10,000 square foot Best Buy brick and mortar outlet.  This could be the upside sleeper of summer ’16, like an old donkey winding its way up the mountain.



Comments »

Apple Rumors from The Far East and The Key Beneficiaries in New Jersey


Shares of Apple, Inc are slight gap up heading into the week after Taiwan Media reports Apple is asking their suppliers to manufacture 72M-78M iPhone 7’s this year.  Of all the hardware in Apple’s collection, the iPhone is by far the most pivotal.

Also Goldman Sachs has a note out this morning, saying Universal Display [ticker: OLED] will be a ‘key beneficiary’ of Apple’s first-time adoption of organic LED displays.  Their stock is up over 5% heading into the open.

The Exodus algorithms flagged OLED overbought on Friday, with statistics showing a 92% probability the stock will be higher over the next 10 trading days.  In other words, Exodus wins again:


UPDATE: Taiwan’s stock market surged following the news that Apple is telling their supply chain to expect massive iPhone 7 output.  The TSEC ended the day up over 2.5% as USA industry is not the main beneficiary of manufacturing, but only the consumer of said wares.

God help the global economy is Americans decide to stop buying goods at gratuitous rates.


Comments »

Tesla Motors Ends Day Up Nearly 2% After Secondary Stock Offering


The investor class has mutually agreed that Elon Musk and his team of scientists needed and will make good use of an additional $2 billion dollars. Said funds are earmarked yo ramp up production of The Company’s Model 3 electro-wagon.

This a a car for the people, an offering to the well-shoed millennial, who is fed up with the auto industry and their flagging vehicles. Moreover, an electric Tesla car takes the owner one step closer to independence from the special interest behind energy and oil.

Like those backward ass oil pumpers down in Texas who glorify child pageantry.

So take a big black marker out and put an ‘X’ on May 19th, 2016 to remember that today was a victory.

This victory was brought to you by the good folks at Goldman Sachs.

Comments »

Tesla Shrugs Off After Hours Temper Tantrum; Set To Gap Higher After Announcing Secondary


Let’s be perfectly clear about Tesla motors folks–this is not any other company in the world.  They are the finest stewards of money in existence.  If they need more money, fine.  It will not be squandered on high school football fields [Texas retards] or cast into the ether via gratuitous stock buyback programs.  The moneys will be earmarked towards fighting the soulless bandits behind big oil and securing our place in the future.

Thus it comes as no surprise that the company is set to enter today’s trade gap up after announcing a $2B dollar secondary offering of stock.

See Also: Goldman Sachs Upgraded Tesla This Morning; Leads Billion Dollar Underwriting in The Afternoon

Remember today, bearshitter, for it will mark the beginning of your demise.

Comments »

Rumor Report: TASER Being Approached by Northrup Grumman


Market chatter is circulating that Northrup Grumman aka drone fury wants TASER.

Why would the war profiteers want nonlethal weaponry?  Perhaps they want to get back to arming the police state, trigger happy rednecks who cannot be trusted with firearms, and they know the only way to capture market share is via electroshock guns.

Whatever the case, the market is treating this rumor as truth and TASR shares are in a decent spot, check it out:


Comments »

The Day of Reckoning Looms for Huge Global Corporations


Shares of Joy Global are being dismantled, down over 15% on the session, sliding lower alongside gold, copper, and silver.


You may recall I am in this stock, not because I think globalism stands a chance under the Trump regime, but because Exodus flagged the name a few weeks back.  The position trade was a success, overall, because I scaled profits along the way.  This is why we build rules and trade.  Now, with the stock coming against me, I have a simple decision–cut the final runner if we close below the 61.8% retrace, or about $17.00.

See Also: Milking A Winner-A Case Study in Position Trading

I lost faith in JOY last week when The Donald laid waste to Lyin’ Ted and that other guy.  Companies like Joy Global will suffer as the United States shifts back to a nationalist agenda.  The jig is up.  No more chasing slave labor around the world–forcing the indigenous people into work/live camps until they rebel, then closing up shop and finding your next mark–without being subjected to steep tariff and import banishment.

Comments »

BEWARE: Raul Goes After Another Stock Trade


Heed my caution, the circuitry powering the stock exchanges is designed to smell out stock traders like me and destroy them.

Thus, when you see my initiate my second stock trade of the year, your concern is warrented.


This go around I bought MNK.  This buy came after performing a top-down analysis last night using Exodus.  The study can be found by clicking here.

Same risk management applies: 10 day hold or -10% stop loss.  Godspeed.


Comments »

Digging into Earnings Season Data: Finding Actionable Stock Picks with Exodus


Several Exodus users are competent and operate the system to extract actionable stocks.  They also engage the macro timing algorithm like it is second nature.  Other members, mostly noobs, need to be shown the basics.

That is why they sent me.  I am the expert.  Please do not envision me like a savant—naturally gifted in the fields of software, stocked markets, and statistical analysis.  Running Exodus is not rocket science, though it was developed by a Space Alien Magician.  It is simple to operate. Let’s go top down and find actionable stocks right now, shall we?

Step 1: Decide The Relevant Time Frame

You need to think about how far into the past you want your data to go.  I want to see which sectors are outperforming since the start of earnings season, which was about 2-weeks ago.

BEHOLD: 2-WEEK SECTOR PERFORMANCE (save all applause until the end)


Nothing really stands out, nothing except the haymaker Basic Materials landed square on the scrotum of bearshitters.  Goodness, look at that thing.  Now comes my bias, and this is the part where I tailor the results for my needs, and why you need to become self sufficient at this simple form of analysis.  I do not want or need a Basic Materials stock in my portfolio.  So I will instead dig into the second best performer, our good friend Healthcare.

Step 2: Enter the Armory And Choose a Weapon


Armed with the sector intelligence we gathered above, we now head into The Grid.  The Grid is the biggest page inside Exodus and is loaded with tools you can use to hone in on winners.  The whole Sell in May thing has me cautious.  Therefore I am picking the Free Cash Flow model portfolio as my weapon.  It is loaded with fundamental filters by the Le Fly himself.  Great screen when you want to find companies whose operations were sound over a trailing 12-month period, in hopes their operations will continue to funnel cash into the company, thus fending off any liquidity issues should credit start to tighten.

I refuse to write out all the steps I take to soup up the Free Cash Flow screen to find actionable stocks.  If you are serious about using Exodus set up a 15-minute phone call with me by calling 800-863-7110, emailing, sending me a DM on Twitter @IndexModel, or ping me on SnapChat [VCali].  Exodus members can access the screen by clicking here.

However, for the unwashed, if you’ve stuck around with your hat out, bedraggled and smelling of cheese, waiting for PICKS, I have your picks.



From the list I like GMED the best, then MNK ::takes bow, basks in applause::



Comments »