Thursday, September 29, 2016
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Blair Witch Project 2 Could Be An Opportunity To Buy A Scary Stock Market


The stock market was fast for a minute.  Last Friday it slashed lower.  It was a real horror show, with the S&P 500 succumbing to it’s 2nd worst single day performance in the last 10 years.

Then Monday opened hard gap down and was bought up all day, effectively forming the low of the week.  OPEX shenanigans?  Totally random?  While spooky to some, that exact scenario was laid out as one of two possibilities for the week in last Sunday’s Exodus Strategy Session.  Let’s review:

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 1.90, STRONG BEAR*.  Two possible scenarios for next week.  First, price works higher to start the week.  Look for a push up to about 2133 on the S&P futures before we roll over and continue lower.  The second scenario is a big gap down Monday that is bought up all day, ultimately forming the low for the week.

Since the Monday low we’ve come a long way, and buying into the weekend ahead of next week’s FOMC rate decision may seem sketchy.

However, Lionsgate dropped a sequel to The Blair Witch Project on box offices today.  They are coming in hot to scary movie season with a follow-up to their cult hit.

Sequals tend to work in the horror genre.  Look at Saw or Final DestinationBlair Witch is admittingly a different case because the initial allure surrounded the raw nature of it and people speculating it was true (lolz).

However, if they can strike the same thunder this weekend, when everyone is jonezing for a horror flick, Lionsgate (ticker: LGF) could run on Monday, effectively maiming and slashing short sellers to bits.

Full disclosure: the writer (RAUL SANTOS) is long LGF as of Friday.


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Overnight Traders Front-run Anticipated New Month Fund Flows

7 minutes abs

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, back up to the MCVPOC at 4795 before fading most of the move.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came out mixed. However, most investors are more keen to hear tomorrow morning’s Non-farm Payroll reading.

Also on the economic docket today we have Construction Spending and ISM Manufacturing at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price opened gap down and an early 2-way auction closed the gap.  Then sellers stepped in and became initiative, pushing us below last week’s low briefly.  This formed an excess low and we rallied for the rest of the day–effectively keeping the market in balance.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for seller to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4775.  Look for sellers to work down through overnight low 4771.75 then buyers emerge ahead of 4766 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong sellers push down through overnigth low 4771.75 and continue lower, down through yesterday low 4751.50 to target the open gap down at 4743.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 4795.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers trend up through the entire balance to target 4819.25 before two way trade ensues.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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Microsoft Apologizes To House of Saud After Bing Translates “Daesh” as “Saudi Arabia”


Following on the heels of Microsoft’s racist Nazi Twitter bot, their unpopular search engine Bing managed to offend the entire Kingdom of Saudi Arabia after their translate feature converted داعش, which is pronounced Daesh, to “Saudi Arabia”.

Daesh is the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State, aka ISIS, aka ISIL.

Oddly enough, ISIS does not want to be called Daesh either.  They have offered to, “cut out the tongue” of anyone who refers to their clan of radical Islam by the name.

The ISIS terrorists may take offense to the name because of it sounds similar to other words in their language:

Daesh is an acronym for the Arabic phrase al-Dawla al-Islamiya al-Iraq al-Sham (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant).

Essentially, it’s another word for ISIS – but apparently one that ISIS militants do not favor.

Why? Because it is similar to the Arabic words ‘Daes’, ‘one who crushes something underfoot’ and ‘Dahes’, translated as ‘one who sows discord’.

So when you call ISIS a Daesh, it sort of sounds like you’re calling a spade a spade, and that is a crime they will punish by taking your tongue.


Microsoft might be in trouble for many years, if the Saudi Kingdom does not forgive them for this search engine error.  After all, Saudi Arabia has funded 20% of Hillary’s presidential campaign.

The House of Saud is not just showering Hillary with money for the sake of diplomacy; they want favors.  Microsoft better hope they never end up as the mark.

The so-called technical error caused an uproar in Saudi Arabia, where many Saudi social media users called for a boycott of Bing and Microsoft.

There are reports the big tech company issued a formal apology, but several Google searches have not turned up any official results.

Shares of Microsoft have weathered both their cultural faux pas well.  Neither calling Saudi Arabia Daesh nor unleashing a racist nazi robot onto Twitter has affected their share price.  As of this writing, one share of MSFT will cost you about fifty eight bucks.  It is trading just below 52-week highs.

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Long in Tooth: Takeover Chatter Making The Rounds $FEYE $FSLR


As a bull thrust starts to mature, you begin seeing notes cross the trading desk about takeovers.

They are usually chatter with no legitimate source.

Today’s takeover chatter is on First Solar and FireEye :::cringes:::

$FSLR has traded like a crate of rotten tomatoes during the summer ’16 rally, so it makes sense to try for the ‘takeover rumor’ Hail Mary to help unload this filthy solar laggard:


Same goes for $FEYE aka The Devil himself.  It’s getting a better bump on the rumor.  Keep an eye out for the bulging sack of overhead supply ready to soak up any buy flow:


Here’s how the rumors hit the wires:

10:03:28 FireEye Shares Spike ~3% Higher, Turn Positive; Hearing Traders Passing Around  
Unconfirmed Chatter of Takeover Interest 

10:29:18 First Solar Shares Turn Positive as Traders Passing Around Unconfirmed Takeover  
Chatter, Stock Now Up 1.6% 

You can take these rumors as fact and go long either of these stocks.  I will just sit over here, biding my time and preparing for the return of volatility so I can make hay in the NASDAQ arena.


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NASDAQ on Auto Pilot Heading into Holiday Weekend


NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring abnormally low range on normal volume.  Price extended up the gains made Thursday overnight before coming into balance.  At 8:30am annualized GDP came in below expectations, at 0.80% vs 0.90% estimate.  The initial reaction is some selling.

Also on the economic docket today we have final May reading of U. of Michigan Confidence at 10am, Fed Chair Yellen talking at the Harvard Radcliffe Day at 10:3am, then Baker Hughs Rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The session was balanced until late in the afternoon when buyers stepped in and pushed the market higher, ending the day at session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for chop.  Look for buyers to continue working higher, with 4524.75 putting a cap on upward action.

Hypo 2 sellers come in and book some gains ahead of the holiday weekend/month end.  Look for a move down to 4485 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 Yellen says something that triggers a bit more liquidation.  We reenter the lower value and explore it, with sellers targeting 4470.50 before we come into two way trade.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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Could Best Buy Actually Win And Not Be Another Loser Retail Stock?


Shares of Best Buy have been volatile early on this morning as rumors circulate that a ‘notable market-research firm’ said Q1 sales are trending above analyst estimates.

The retail climate has been absolutely atrocious.  If we go two weeks into the Exodus Strategy Session archives we can recall just how much bodily harm was inflicted on the industry set recently:


Yet over the same time period, Best Buy shares [ticker: BBY] have been more-or-less flat.  Quite curious yes yes?


The chart looks tight.  The kind of chart you can build a position into and manage risk without too much confusion.  However, you need to go into this idea accepting the potential of a 25% draw down before knowing if you’re wrong.  Or you could play it tighter, risk less, size in more, and look to scale sooner.  It is just a matter of how much time you’re willing to commit to the position.


Not many people expect Best Buy to come out swinging.  They are Amazon’s show room.  I imagine Bezos feels rather gay every time he sees a 10,000 square foot Best Buy brick and mortar outlet.  This could be the upside sleeper of summer ’16, like an old donkey winding its way up the mountain.



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Apple Rumors from The Far East and The Key Beneficiaries in New Jersey


Shares of Apple, Inc are slight gap up heading into the week after Taiwan Media reports Apple is asking their suppliers to manufacture 72M-78M iPhone 7’s this year.  Of all the hardware in Apple’s collection, the iPhone is by far the most pivotal.

Also Goldman Sachs has a note out this morning, saying Universal Display [ticker: OLED] will be a ‘key beneficiary’ of Apple’s first-time adoption of organic LED displays.  Their stock is up over 5% heading into the open.

The Exodus algorithms flagged OLED overbought on Friday, with statistics showing a 92% probability the stock will be higher over the next 10 trading days.  In other words, Exodus wins again:


UPDATE: Taiwan’s stock market surged following the news that Apple is telling their supply chain to expect massive iPhone 7 output.  The TSEC ended the day up over 2.5% as USA industry is not the main beneficiary of manufacturing, but only the consumer of said wares.

God help the global economy is Americans decide to stop buying goods at gratuitous rates.


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Tesla Motors Ends Day Up Nearly 2% After Secondary Stock Offering


The investor class has mutually agreed that Elon Musk and his team of scientists needed and will make good use of an additional $2 billion dollars. Said funds are earmarked yo ramp up production of The Company’s Model 3 electro-wagon.

This a a car for the people, an offering to the well-shoed millennial, who is fed up with the auto industry and their flagging vehicles. Moreover, an electric Tesla car takes the owner one step closer to independence from the special interest behind energy and oil.

Like those backward ass oil pumpers down in Texas who glorify child pageantry.

So take a big black marker out and put an ‘X’ on May 19th, 2016 to remember that today was a victory.

This victory was brought to you by the good folks at Goldman Sachs.

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Tesla Shrugs Off After Hours Temper Tantrum; Set To Gap Higher After Announcing Secondary


Let’s be perfectly clear about Tesla motors folks–this is not any other company in the world.  They are the finest stewards of money in existence.  If they need more money, fine.  It will not be squandered on high school football fields [Texas retards] or cast into the ether via gratuitous stock buyback programs.  The moneys will be earmarked towards fighting the soulless bandits behind big oil and securing our place in the future.

Thus it comes as no surprise that the company is set to enter today’s trade gap up after announcing a $2B dollar secondary offering of stock.

See Also: Goldman Sachs Upgraded Tesla This Morning; Leads Billion Dollar Underwriting in The Afternoon

Remember today, bearshitter, for it will mark the beginning of your demise.

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Rumor Report: TASER Being Approached by Northrup Grumman


Market chatter is circulating that Northrup Grumman aka drone fury wants TASER.

Why would the war profiteers want nonlethal weaponry?  Perhaps they want to get back to arming the police state, trigger happy rednecks who cannot be trusted with firearms, and they know the only way to capture market share is via electroshock guns.

Whatever the case, the market is treating this rumor as truth and TASR shares are in a decent spot, check it out:


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