My book recaptured over 1.5 percent of the most recent losses today if you don’t count RVLT.  Unfortunately for the Raul, RVLT very much indeed counts, and today’s respite was much less.

BLAST.

A stock down big during an all-up tape is like a cold dagger to the back.  The blade is chilled even further, perhaps dipped in liquid nitrogen, when a stock gets crushed on no news…simply more sellers than buyers.  But since said blade has been dipped in liquid cold nitrogen with the intent of delivering a shrilling cold death blow it is brittle.  Pathetically brittle in fact, to the point where my Greek bones, formed atop Mount Olympus, shatter the dagger into a million tiny fragments at the point of contact.

Such is the eventual fate of those who bet against me in RVLT.  Of that you can rest assured. I added to my position today.

Other interesting thoughts toddling through my mind: I started getting the itch to size my O long back up yesterday.  I didn’t actively listen, and the thought continued in my mind all day, like a catchy merry-go-round jingle.  I like O down here, but I know so little about REITS and RATES and ROUTS which made me a bit abash to sounds the horns.  Consider this: O is unch on YTD and pays a 5.5% coupon.  If you didn’t get a piece of the capital appreciation, you’re still making bank.  Relax, and wade into this space before it is again en vogue.

YGE was my largest position coming into the day.  I’ve been in this name for quite a while, wondering if I’d one day wakeup to a Chinese air raid, a Red Dawn of sorts.  It hasn’t happened yet.  The Chinese have been very kind to me because I’m a diplomatic gent.  Respect is important in all cultures.  That being said I consider this week’s action is YGE to be of the do-or-die ­variety because we’ve reached a critical juncture on the chart that can explode in either direction.  Odds favor the long side still, so I’m expecting the gods to shine on these solar panels.

The tape as dictated by the /ES got a bit ahead of itself today.  This became evident when the market didn’t rotate off the value hump at 1652.25.  Given the weight of tomorrow’s Fed talk and the confluence of value around these levels, to disregard them and print higher seemed either surprisingly bullish or getting a bit ahead of ourselves.  The market, our favorite arbiter, answered that question by swiftly correcting the tape into the bell.  It was nothing more than a ruler slap to the bull’s knuckles IMHO.

Being about 85% long, I clearly am free of bias.

But seriously, I work hard to remain objective in my profile analysis.

Until tomorrow,

Raul

 

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Berlin is one of the most brilliant cities in the world.  The civil engineers were given the appropriated budgets and they produced magnificent methods of transportation.  Their parking garages are stunning pictures of modern design, their rails run on time, and their freeways, well everyone around the world envies the smooth autobahn.

And when you’ve engineered structural greatness you want lighting that’s equally breathtaking.  Lighting is the icing on the cake, it’s the makeup artist, and when using LEDs it’s an elegant leap into the future of visual stimuli.  Oh yeah, it uses 80 percent less energy than traditional HID lighting.  That too.

So when I see a strong Euro dollar, and a country like Germany that’s concerned with energy production and conservation I want a piece of the action.  What better way to get your piece of Germany than their premier LED company?  It’s traded here in the USA via AIXG.

Now it’s an ADR and trades lousy intraday, and yes, I’ve been in it forever and I’m hyping up my own book, but the move hasn’t happened yet, and I would be doing you a disservice to not bring this idea to your attention [again].

Here’s an updated chart and as I see it, it’s finally worked out of a consolidation formation, it’s resting on the 9ema, and ready to do work.

Full Disclosure:  I own many shares of AIXG.  If you buy AIXG because of this post, a panzer tank will come give you a lawn job, and you may lose money.

 

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The markets continue their summer trading routine, showing up late, leaving early, and sometimes behaving belligerently…as if the sun has cooked their brains.

The S&P session tried going higher, then it tried going lower, and as we speak it’s still trying to go lower.

Oil tried going higher and got smacked down, putting my promising END position back into the proverbial holding position.

Over the weekend, things got a little, how shall I say…weird at la casa de Raul.  Returning home after my bludgeoning, I ate several peaches off my tree like a giraffe.  I scoffed the squirrels for continuing to work my walnut trees bare, and then I cooked a large meal and ate an entire pie.  It goes without saying, but I drank a lovely blonde ale too which put me into a coma by 8pm waking only briefly to play iBC trivia at midnight.

So when I woke up Saturday morning at 3:30am, bright eyed and happy to be alive with the market’s closed, there was nothing to occupy myself with…except for the markets, SMH.  After plugging away at a few of my algorithms and pinning out the i7 quad core for an hour or so, something appeared, a cycle.  It nearly brought a tear to my eye, the beauty of it all: its simplicity.

I ran the data, and it is money.  Saturday morning as the sun crested over the horizon, BOSSRAM ALPHA was born.  The futures markets will never be the same.

It’s hard to describe exactly what BOSSRAM ALPHA is except to call it a cycle of sorts.  It’s a way of “working” a support or resistance level that allows the trader an 88% win rate.  It can be scaled to suit the operator’s financial needs, and it’s devilishly simple.  I’ll be beta testing it on live data all this week and next, and then cash shall be allocated exclusively to the cycle trade.

I would tell you more specifics, but then I’d have to kill you.

REGARDING STOCKS:

I have too many longs, I’m not afraid to admit that.  Everything’s sort of teetering on the brink of death and costing me a “g” every day.  It’s not very fun nor is it funny.  Yet, I can’t stomach the idea of selling most of my positions, for they have not wronged me in any way.  Is it the will of the market to trade only in one direction?  No sir, it is not.  Could I lose another 2-3% of my worth in the drawdown?  As my portfolio stands, yes.

My only action today was to buy more longs, as a matter of fact, gobbling up shares of everyone’s favorite retail data mine, AMZN.  You know: the guys who know what you want before you know what you want.  Genius robots that anticipate your spending patterns years in advance.   Them, I bought them, at the open when they were on sale.  I should have used weekly options, am I right?  I’m looking for a bit more upside to sell into, although the proper way to play AMZN is to swear allegiance to their algorithmic prowess and marry yourself to the name: getting your DCA on like a freak.

FB is having a decent day too, I missed adding shares, but I think it has a bit more churn in the tank which may produce another buyable dip.

I like seeing Z come in a bit.  I hope I’m not too slow to act on this name as it builds strength for the one hundred dollar roll.

OESX, the sleeper LED retrofit company, is having a strong day.  This is something worth monitoring.

These are my thoughts I’ve graced them upon you.  Go henceforth and spread the word.

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I used some of that pesky cash on hand to reinitiate a position in END and start a new position in MHR.  I have to tell you, the news cycle is an interesting creature, feeding us what we demand.  Take Egypt for instance: they’ve been backwards freaks since the nose dropped off the Sphinx—troglodytes in sheep’s clothing.  Yet here we are, with oil pulling back ever so gingerly after thrusting higher, and the news is aligning with another thrust.

Talk about harmonic orchestration!

I’m not here to debate the toxicity of news.  I write to bring you the news, as filtered by my deranged microcosm.  Oh, and I’m here for one other reason—to extract money from the stock exchange.

I’m up over one and a quarter percent today which has helped return air to my lungs.  It was getting hard to breathe there for a minute.  I had nine-one dialed on my rotary phone, entirely prepared to round out the final one only a moment before fainting.

Now I’m going into the weekend with confidence, unjustified as it may be, restored. I need weekends, you see, to allow me to gather my thoughts so I can survive five days of market flow.

I bought back into a long time favorite company and short term favorite stock of mine, American Apparel.  They are the Cadillac of undershirts, which is great, I wear them almost every day.  But buying their stock was simply a matter of financing more tee shirt purchases based on a chart I like.  This thing has been dead money for-e-ver, and someone tossed in the towel these last two days, “fuck it” and I was there to claim their shares.  I’ll AT THE LEAST, ride these babies back up to the dead money zone.  At the most, we’ll finally get a pulse and I’ll ride a pumper.  There’s a lot of good investors who believe in this name.

Heading into the bell, I’d like to open my book to your criticism.  Here are my swing holdings, listed largest to smallest:

YGE, AIXG, RVLT, CREE, END, YELP, F, APP, MHR, LO, FB, IMMR, and O

I’ll be checking in this weekend with some data stuff I’ve been working on in the /ES.

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I trade my worst when I feel chaotic.  I feel chaotic when I’m taking unplanned trades because I’m not trading with any structure.  I long ago accepted and embraced that much like an ocean, I cannot impose my will upon the market.  The market is the final arbiter.

There have been situations where unexpected news resulted in my losing money, like OCZ.  In that situation I felt an anxiety perhaps, more like a tension in my shoulders, and when I cut the loss I immediately felt a sense of relief.  Relief is a sensation, and sensations are one of the cornerstones of habits and habit formation.

Perhaps cutting CREE right here at this juncture would provide the same sensation of relief, but in this situation that would be a detriment to my long term goals.  Goals I’ve mapped and planned for prior to embracing this position.

Commenter AKwitdemBeamz commended my riding through a bludgeoning in CREE these last two days and likened me to Slim Pickens riding the nuke.  For those unfamiliar, he is referencing the most iconic scene from one of the most entertaining movies of all time, Dr. Strangelove.  As flattering as it is to be associated with such a feat of courageous greatness, my first thought was AKwitdemBeamz thinks I’m trading this position like a cowboy.

Shooting from the hip, if you will…

Everyone loves the big shootout scene in a western.  It’s usually the climax of a story and our hero cowboy, seemly outnumbered and certainly outgunned singlehandedly (or perhaps with the help of his faithful steed) dismantles the villains, restores order, and rides off into the sunset.  All this, mind you, happened against all odds.  That’s why we love it.  It’s seeing the low probability happen: the diving catch in the outfield, Jeb Corliss Grind The Crack, or the 65 yard field goal in overtime.  As breathtaking and impressive as it can be to watch these cowboys, you’re watching someone defy the laws of large numbers and probabilities.

I’m not a cowboy.  What I’m doing, right here right now with CREE is planned—god damned brooded upon while mopping floors.  Because when I have a plan, I don’t feel the chaos, and when I don’t feel chaos I trade my best.

I’m going to share my plan with you because I want this to go down as a nonevent, merely another blip in the trading timeline.  BEHOLD: The plan.  If it seems too simple then perhaps you’re too dense.  This is a weekly chart, this is an investment, but it’s always amorphous.  If conditions arise that suggest a retooling of the plan, such decisions will be made.  Typically the plan is reassessed when one of the following levels is traded:

“I ain’t no cowboy, gus”

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Count me in on the dipper pool:

I’ve added to my CREE and YELP longs

The SPY isn’t out of the woods yet as the sellers are still pushing, but I see deals.

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Take your fancy words like masochist and stow them under your chair.  I don’t want to hear them.

YOU SHOULD SEE MY PERFORMANCE CHART OVER THE LAST 3 MONTHS, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS:

///////// \\\\\\\\\\ ////////// \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

That’s literally how it looks if only to see the chop a bit more pronounced.  MY WHEELS are spinning, you see?

LED stocks as a whole are retracing their 2013 gains after the tepid Q1 forecast from CREE.  To call the move in CREE a retracement however, may be an understatement.  This is panic and margin calls rolled into a giant blunt and smoked, like a clown, by yours truly.

Of course I bought some more CREE today, adding to my [still] green core.  I bought some into the closing bell for $58.85 #timestamp.  Even if only for a trade, I can’t stand by idle and watch my ‘ace boon coon’ CREE get bludgeoned by panicking idiots.  Oh and believe me, I have more bullets to fire at these bitches while they’re concentrated in this back ally trough.

I’m telling you now, send CREE lower, I want it lower.

Send RVLT down too, I’m patient.

I have zero edge trading earnings let’s make that clear as crystal, which it already should be.  I’m building investments here…they’ll make fine x-mas presents.

MOVING ON, AGAIN

I cut some small names off my books because the /ES was trading in a downdraft.  I cut PBF, KWK, and ONVO.  I made a killing in ONVO, BTW.  The other two, not so much…

Speaking of the /ES: There’s simply no way for me to broadcast my strategy out to the world.  Back testing and optimizing has created a medium frequency beast that even I can be overwhelmed by.  I took ten trades in the /ES today, 7 were winners and I made 160 bucks trading a 1 lot.  When this system is making 160-250 bucks per contract 4-5 days/week, which it will, it can be scaled to as many contracts are needed to sustain my lifestyle.  Cool, yes?  Then I can abandon this corporate hole and go work for Cree or something.

I’m down a percent and a half today.  My cash is nearly 40 percent partially because of a series of decockings and partially due to the aforementioned sales.  Why the silver trade is back on, I have no idea.  When I return to winship lane I will be wearing an undersized tunic so you can admire my cajonies.

I want you to take that thought and hold it close this evening.

http://youtu.be/G8rGNk6vkM4

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Cree shares are in the toilet after reporting soft guidance after the bell.  I can only see this as a buying opportunity.  If it presses my RVLT shares lower, I’ll be looking to buy more of their shares too.  Listen to me very carefully: LEDs are coming in a big way.  There are hundreds of millions of light bulbs that will be updated to LED technology.

Cree was priced for perfection going into earnings, it worried me.  I could have lightened my shares, but then I risked having to buy them higher on a positive reaction.  I’ve been biding my time with CREE, letting it effervesce for months, hoping for an opportunity to add exposure into some blood.

It appears I have my opportunity.

Shares are down nearly 15 percent on the news.  My cost basis is much lower so the market will have to do worse to shake me. I’m a buyer down here, but I intend to do so with laser like precision.

The CREE chart has needed to reset since February.  This isn’t a trade.  It’s a multiyear thesis that will crush.  The numbers out of CREE look great to my eye.

MOVING ON…

There’s nothing you can do, sans having illegal insider information, to avoid the type of loss I was forced to take in OCZ today.  Sometimes you get unexpected news, especially when you’re digging through dumpsters looking for winners.  You have to cut the names as gracefully as possible and take precautionary measures to protect your emotional capital or avoid tilt as some say.  I should have probably sold on the first bounce, instead of nursing the position late into the afternoon.

I am experiencing winship in the AIXG today, I’ve waited quite some time for this name to get active, and it will be interesting to see if CREE is a negative contagion tomorrow.

My peanut gallery of stocks were mostly down today with the exception of ONVO and IMMR.

Tonight I’ll be formulating plans to accumulate the blood in LED and I will burn thickets of sage to cleanse these demonic losses out of my home.

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I’ve been nursing a few position this morning, namely OCZ, which has me somewhat sidelined to the other opportunities our markets present.

In terms of momentum trading, this is where you buy YELP, down here in the trough, if it shows any signs of strength.

Several of my other stocks are in the red.  I wish some were more in the red than others so I could buy more, but the day is young.

Our morning idea in the $ES_F was to see some digestion of the overnight move because it took the markets into overbought territory.  The sellers had more than a mere digestion in mind and put us firmly into scenario 2 from the morning report which called for backfilling yesterday’s short squeeze.  That task has been completed and the buyers are right back on the scene, keeping us in the churn.

The buyers could turn this thing around by holding above 1686.75, and we would target an upside move to test the daily high at 1690.50.

 

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As quiet as today seemed, I was able to advance my portfolio by over 1 percent today.  Leading the way were my LED players, RVLT, CREE, and AIXG.  This basket of securities currently represents 23 percent of my portfolio and I intend to make it much larger, perhaps even as large as 50 percent of my book.

That’s how much conviction I have in lighting grade LEDs.

I intend to make a very concentrated bet and advance my family to the next level of society, top hats.  If anyone can present one iota of evidence contrary to the eventual 100% adoption rate of LEDs in the United States, please do so now.  And don’t feed me that plasma light bullshit, I’ve tested these things and I’m wholeheartedly unimpressed by both the performance and the economics.

I’m slowing my swing portfolio down a bit, instead focusing on building into names I believe add value to society, which is why I started buying cigarette marker LO into the bell.  I’m essentially parking money in the Newport Cigarette maker, planning to earn the very handsome coupon while they add value to the smoking community.  How?  The Blu eCigarette.  When LO took over Blu and rolled it out to every convenience station from here to California, they earned the early mover seat in this space.  I like to imagine they have teams of behavioral physiologists and scientists working around the clock to sell more of these disposable vaporizers.  My game plan on LO is to buy weakness, time and time again, and allow the eventual growth from eCigs to buoy the share price enough for the coupon to make me profit.  Fun stuff, I know.  I’m sleeping on some Ford(s) shares the same way.

I have a heterogeneous mixture of other stocks kicking around in the old portfolio, mostly names where I’ve taken the lion share of profits and left a runner on for sport.  Stocks like O, BPZ, ONVO, and IMMR.  I really only see reason to sell BPZ but the others I keep, like collecting baseball cards.

I still have a decent hunk of FB, about 35% of what I consider full size.

I bought more OCZ today.  This is my aggressive pumper.  I’m having a hard time accepting a double top at two bucks.  I’ve questioned this proposition by increasing my size in the name in search of a short term pump.  I’m playing PBF in a similar manner although it has different chart logic.

My other aggressive trade is YGE, which is still huge.

That makes 14 longs, 0 shorts, and 25% cash.  Just writing that out makes me want to sell something and concentrate my eggs…

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