RVLT today announced they acquired Relume Lighting Technologies, a fine company in my neck of the woods. I’m loving how they structured this deal, paying only $5 million and offering the remaining ten large in common stock. They’re aligning goals by getting everyone vested in the share price. And by acquiring Seesmart and Relume they’ve become a formidable competitor in the lighting grade LED space.
Shares are up modestly on the news, but I wish they were down. I want a huge position in this name. I have a current cost basis of $4.35 and about 8 percent of my portfolio invested. I want to be 20 percent invested…a concentration of sorts only a madman would consider. And I want to hold it for years, or until I feel the management is not executing.
Right now I love these guys.
Consider this my hype piece on RVLT. I’m not going to pump this name, but I will be swinging it intermediate to long term.
The challenge here will be sitting on all the profits, watch.
No charts needed here. I have GTC orders at $3.20 and $2.15. Hook it up.
Much like the pile of Mexican food I consumed late last night, the USU shares I chased yesterday are providing small explosions in my person. Position sizing is key and although discussed often, perhaps not often enough. I only took a 1/3 size long in this name with no intention of making it larger. That way, WHEN it comes back on my like this, I can at least maintain my composure and die with dignity. This trade is likely a loser. Moving on…
RVLT is a much larger position of mine and is down AS MUCH AND OFTEN TIMES MORE than USU. But still, I don’t flinch. I henceforth and hereafter am one with RVLT. We’re a team, RVLT and me, consider me an RVLT employee, got it? As long as they continue to focus their energies on Seesmart, I have zero complaints with the name. I think it was a good deal between RVLT and Seesmart and we’re going to see real value from this company going forward. I will go as far as putting 20 percent of my book into this name, if need be, allocating slowly during any meltdowns. After buying more today, the position represents about 8 percent of my book.
I have CREE too, the leader.
I may have additional thoughts to offer you later on, but the market is very dynamic today and I’d like to return my attention to it. Adieu good fellows of the interwebs.
Thu Aug 8, 2013 4:40pm ESTComments Off on YGE is The Bruce Lee of Solar Stocks and Other Market Observations
The Yen walked down the stairs lockstep with the SPY rise, like mirrors of one another—starting around lunchtime, which pleases me.
Anytime I trade counter-trend, taking a high quality and back tested setup, and I extract money from the market, I feel like I’m getting away with a sophisticated robbery. I did it to EXK last week and over the last few weeks I’ve done the same long the Japanese Yen. Now I’m out and a heavy hand is walking the currency lower. This gives today’s move a carry feel and suggest we need to keep the carry not in the forefront but more so the back burner of our mind as we progress.
Solar stocks are getting the back ally beat down like they were flashing too much swag in the hood, which they were. However, YGE is Bruce Lee, water, and deflected the aggressive bear bludgeons with finesse. They put out positive guidance before the bell that had everyone a bit taken aback because they suggested shipments growth was “significantly better” than expected. So they’re not jawboning about their FUCKING LEADS, like FSLR, they’re talking shipped product. They’re shipping that Hanna Montana like Rick Ross, from the Phantom.
RVLT is cooling off a bit post earnings and I’m sitting here wondering if I’m about to get AMBA’d aka ambushed by sellers. So I’m holding back the additional capital I intend to commit to this name. But rest assured, I intend to own many more shares of RVLT before the year is through. CREE on the other hand continues to rise, wall of worrying the old men on the sideline. In other LED news, RBCN spiked lower after reporting unimpressive revenues but the dip was bought.
My only action today was to take a small position in USU. I’m playing hot potato with a nuke in this name, but I figure I hate solar so much I might as well diversify my energy holdings.
Here’s my book of energy-type stocks, largest to smallest:
YGE, USU, KWK, BPZ
Goldman caught a nasty fade into the bell, I’m not sure how I feel about it, obviously I would have preferred some follow through since it’s my largest holding. We’re practically back to my cost basis and all I have to show for it is the lint in my pocket as no scales were taken.
For in the futures I took one scalp, to the short side, in the middle of that big afternoon move higher. I earned a modest $62.50.
My swing book made almost a percent today. At one point it was up nearly 2 percent. Cash level is 25 percent.
Wed Aug 7, 2013 5:04pm ESTComments Off on Solar Continues DOWN the Path of Least Resistance
It has been one hit after another this week in the solar space, with a big EPS (LPS) whiff by SCTY, the Star Trek of solar stocks. I don’t really have much to say about this, I’ve always known solar was bipolar with bouts of manic optimism followed by the cold knife of reality. GREEN ENERGY AFICIONADOS, prepare to receive the thrusting sword of reality to your torso. Solar has failed you, as will your wind turbines.
We need something better, something nuclear.
Moving on, I see nobody read my call to action at lunchtime, obviously catching turning points in the stock market is of no excitement to people of the internet. My crowning achievement on the day was riding /ES shorts through the early move lower, booking my gains, then slapping on a full size GS long a few pennies off the low of the day. Grace under fire it was, executing that move while YGE gets lit the fuck up.
The afternoon was mostly quiet, scalping a long, and then a short amidst the /es chop. I still hold 30% cash in my swing portfolio, but the net is now long, no hedges to anchor me down should the market set sail Thursday.
For the day, I was down 1 percent in my swing portfolio and up 200 bones or clams or bucks on my futures.
Business owners, do me a favor and go buy some solar panels would ya?
You know I am. Today’s weakness is a good opportunity to look at your favorite names, the real winners, the ones that got away from you, the kippers, the big salamis, and draw out some risk profiles.
So far I’ve bought GS and RVLT.
I’m considering adding to my existing CREE repertoire, I will do so, slowly.
Remember AWK? A blast form the past…I have my eyes on some for my slow money.
I sold off my FXY long, a pseudo hedge of sorts. All the profits I had in the name could literally vanish with five or six words from SHINTZO ABE. No thank you, I’ll talk my payday and move on.
I could be seen in the globex market shorting the $ES_F early on, it went well.
RAUL IS ALL OVER THE FINANCIAL WEBS, A FAST MOVING GHOST OF SORTS.
Cash levels have been reduced to a more reasonable 30 percent, which I’m eager to deploy into further weakness.
After FSLR reported weak numbers after hours we saw shares of YGE making a sympathy move lower. As you all very well [should] know, I sized up my YGE position yesterday. In fact, I made it full size.
The cue on the YGE trade is a slight variation. I haven’t yet been stopped out but from what I saw taking place afterhours and the overall sell flow in the indices, this trade may take some heat. We’re being proactive.
THE CUE: “WE GONE TAKE SOME HEAT”
THE ROUTINE: Stop Method
S – Score trades compliance with the trading plan:
Here’s a post on the YGE plan, but I’ll tell you the main talking points and show
you the chart:
Like I said, I corrected course and I’m still riding the name, including taking half my position up Friday’s ramp, so I’m still pretty excited about this trade, all things considered. Now that I’ve booked some profits, and have a green cushion, I’m sticking to the following plan for the YGE trade, including riding though earnings, if necessary, to achieve my $5.00 target.
The trade carries risk down to $3.25. And to be honest, that price level is a bit mushy.
I sized up around four bucks and I had a 1/3 position hanging around from $3.09. The buys brought my cost basis up to $3.70. I’m targeting $4.30 for my first scale and ~ $4.85 for my second.
The trade carries around a 2:1 risk/reward, and my plan for trading stocks is pretty simple: Trade the pullbacks in trending stocks.
Is YGE trending? I trade from daily charts, yes it is.
Is YGE pulling back? Yes
At full size on $3.70, with a stop of $3.25, the trade is risking 1 percent of my portfolio. Perfect.
Trades compliance with the plan: 100% “Oh yeah”
T – Target logical price levels:
O – Observe the trend:
P – Patiently wait for your next opportunity.
For this situation, I’ve fired all my buy bullets, and I have three of four sell bullets loaded in the chamber. My only opportunity at this point is to stop the trade out, or scale profits. Until we reach logical levels, I have no reason to sell in any way, shape, or form.
So now we wait as that stock operator fellow who killed himself said. Odd his writings are immortalized when he’s such a coward, no? Here’s to hoping evil algos don’t read my blog! ::clink clink::
Oh and also, let us not forget the reward for such actions…
Tue Aug 6, 2013 5:11pm ESTComments Off on Majestic Solar Panels
Years of desensitization from a 90’s childhood playing Grand Theft Auto and Doom, watching ultra-violent movies like American History X, and witnessing the opening of the proverbial floodgates via the World Wide Web has made it very difficult to get me excited. Perhaps that is why I simply cannot get excited about solar technology. Or, just maybe, it’s because it lacks POWER.
The Italians get me excited with the eCat, but nobody has proven anything yet.
You may be asking yourself, “Why then, Raul, do we see you taking positions in solar stocks so mucho?” I could cite the momentum as a reason or I could cite our current administration, but the real answer is I just don’t know. It’s such boring technology. Remember, I live in one of the least sunny places on the planet, so I’m sure that weighs in on my bias.
FSLR whiffed on earnings, the highlight of their conference call is their ‘pipeline’ of deals, which we’re to believe they’ll close on, and a new partnership with General Electric. Cool brah, I have a pipeline of deals too, they just keep ignoring my emails (spam).
Solar just doesn’t spin the turbines yet, which brings us back to my primary 2013 thesis, LED lights. A business can invest in itself TODAY, replace all of their lighting TODAY, and reduce their electric usage by over 20 percent. The payback period on the investment is quick, one to three years. Large shop spaces with high intensity discharge lighting can save even MORE. THIS TECHNOLOGY, my friends, is a step in the right direction. AND IT MAKES SENSE TO BUSINESSES, because they’re cash flows aren’t jeopardized for ten, fifteen years. Silly solar salesmen sitting on their leads.
YGE is Chinese, so they have that going for them. And by that I mean souped up books and a Chairman that will handle any insolent workers.
Aside from being on the wrong end of the FSLR call, I traded spooz really well. I pulled out my weekly nut today, fading the down moves early on, then fading the up moves in the afternoon. It was pretty great, 5 planned trades, 0 unplanned.
I bought KWK thinking it could squeeze. It didn’t, yet. I still think it’s priced for certain death and with earnings out of the way and our Mideast Embassies closed, perhaps the energy complex could be in for a bit of summer time madness.
I eyeballed OCZ but missed adding, I’m still long. Something is about to go down in this name, I can feel it in my bones.
To think, I almost sold CREE today. I can’t belive that thought crosses my mind, ever. It’s a stupid thought. Stupid brain, always getting in my way.
We get to hear from First Solar after the bell today and the stock is price for uncertainty. It has been priced for uncertainty since falling off its trend a bit in mid-June. Since then we’ve seen a long consolidation trade. I’m betting the earnings announcement breaks us out of this grind, but in which direction?
I would prefer higher, of course, so as to give the entire industry a fresh thrust of inertia. You won’t find a clearer picture of bracketed price action than the FSLR daily chart:
The next move should be a meaningful one. Full Disclosure: I’m long quite a bit of YGE.
Pardon my intraday absence, today was certainly one for the record books in tasks-completed terms. My head, it’s still spinning. At this point I’ve abandoned hope of completing today’s docket, stared out the window hopelessly, shot gunned my last Monster beverage (kidney stones in a can as I call it) and picked up my pen to debrief my internet people.
This was one hell of a trading session if you ask me. The SPY was dead tuna. I traded early on, via my /ES_F, putting in two really impressive trades, if I do say so myself. Aside very quickly: did you see scenario 1 on this morning’s market profile report? I wield a razor sharp fife before dawn and the market is my fiddle, dancing like I’m shooting bullets at its feet. I’m not caring so much about mangling that metaphor to bits. Anyhowdooski, I bought the LOD, so very nice, so very clean, grabbed two handles, then I bought again, grabbed another 1.5 handles and went on my merry way.
The volume was awful in the futures, it was like trading /6e_F back in my 3am polyphasic days. I used to run such a tight schedule I even timed my shits, times were odd to say the least.
In the stocks, I sold GTAT and END, nearly top ticking both. I felt like such a boss. GTAT reported today after the bell and guess what? They’re crushing! Something about the current economy and their involvement in the LED and solar game has demand picking up on their end. Indeud.
END was a little spinner for me, a marvelous few nights gaining all over it, then I sold out, leaving it without notice. But I’ll tell you this, if it keeps acting right, I’ll be back before you know it, especially because my girl Sooz is all over it.
All of the sudden and without warning, my cash was over 60 percent! Puke, I don’t care if we’re printing high water marks on low volume, there are stocks setting up, I needed more exposure. So this little piggy went to the market:
I bought ONVO @ $4.82
I bought YGE @ $4.00
Then I bought more YGE @ $3.96
I had a little bit of YGE kicking around in the old port prior to these purchases. I’ve been in YGE for a while now, we have a thing sort of going on, YGE and me. So…we’re going to make it a little more serious. Why? Because FSLR reports tomorrow, it could be a catalyst for the whole industry if they report strong. And if Premier Obama wants to hang his fedora on anything during his administration, it god damned better be outperformance by the solar industry in AMERICA. Home of the free baby!
And the irony of course is how I’m looking to benefit from this via a CHINESE solar stock, MAU!
Say what you will, but the manufacturing goes down in China, not our backyards, Gus.
ONVO I can’t say much for except, if I keep drinking these Monsters, somebody better be around to print me a new kidney, the tube that runs from my kidney to my bladder, a new bladder, and a new penis, because it’s all on the line.
Every time I circle back on the prospects of LED technology I’m blown to bits by the size of this market and it’s supple virginity. There are piles of money sitting all across the country, waiting to be gathered by the right group of prospectors.
I really don’t even like telling you about it too much, because I want it all for myself.
RVLT was on sale this week, I don’t doubt it will go on sale again. And you should buy it, with great pomp and vigor. When you go out tasting cocktails with your boyfriends you should brag about your RVLT shares. When you’re playing grab ass in the parking lot, you should open your trunk and pass out the literature you’ve prepared discussing the future of the LED industry.
Get them in on it, be their leader you big homo.
Obviously CREE is a proof of concept, trading near all-time highs. Of course they’re stealing the headlines nailing big time contracts with universities and municipalities. But there’s so many other business out there, low hanging fruit, which will be snatched up at a rapid rate by none other than RVLT.
I think these jackasses are finally getting that, instead of trying to be the dude with the biggest patent, they need to focus on driving retro fits, driving the ball down the field if you will.
We can get cute and trade these stocks with our ADD, or we can grab our nuts and slap a flag on top of the mountain, MIEN!
You know I’m in bed with the German retards at AIXG. You know I’m in bed with CREE. What you don’t know is RVLT is my sexy mistress, wearing the most revealing dresses and the latest styling’s from Tom Ford.
Everyone’s still shortsighted on the LED industry, trust.
