$YGE Trader Performance Analysis and Forecast

Allow me to preface this performance report with a note about strategies, signals, and systems.  There are a million different ways to approach the markets.  Most approaches can be taken to profitability, and all approaches can make you insolvent. To consider one method better than another relies on the traders own subjectivity and how they view and comprehend an approach.  I prefer simplicity and risk management because it suits my fringe lifestyle.  I need a standardized method of assessing the risk a trade carries.  That way, if I get a strong appetite for an industry, like solar, I can find a vehicle I’m confident driving.

All of this is fine and dandy if you execute according to the plan.  Execution is where a trader is defined, and where money is made.  When your ‘signal’ trips you need to execute it.  Finding a signal and becoming intimately acquainted with it is the only way to consistently profit in the markets. When you take time to think, really think, you won’t be reacting and trying to think in the heat of battle, you can stick to the steady handed plan.

I had a really good thing going with the YGE trade and somewhere down the line I lost my vision and muffed it.  Fortunately, when I returned to my study and in the evening recognized my folly, I made preparations to correct myself.  My YGE trade net-net became profitable on Friday, but pales in comparison to the profits it could have generated had I stuck to the plan.

THE ORIGINAL PLAN – PRESENTED WITHOUT COMMENTARY:

THE EXECUTION – Green arrows represent buy points, red sell points, to date:

That, my friends, is poor execution.  I was swept into the sea of emotion on 06/20…do you remember how fucking nuts 06/20 seemed?  It was fake.

Hell, we never even lost the 33 EMA on a closing basis.  And we were clear above my risk parameter.

So what went wrong?  Poor execution, friend.  My takeaway is to keep position counts lower, allowing me to better assess my prescription risk plans before making decisions.  When 10 positions are all down big, sometimes you just pick the most painful one and slow the bleeding, even if it defies the plan.

Like I said, I corrected course and I’m still riding the name, including taking half my position up Friday’s ramp, so I’m still pretty excited about this trade, all things considered.  Now that I’ve booked some profits, and have a green cushion, I’m sticking to the following plan for the YGE trade, including riding though earnings, if necessary, to achieve my $5.00 target.  Behold:

 

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