Next week is big. Possibly one of the top three-or-four most important weeks of the year. Everything is happening all at once. All the Big Tech outlets report earnings next week, starting with Tesla after the bell Monday and ending with Amazon Thursday. Wednesday afternoon there is an FOMC announcement and press conference. Friday is month-end. Geopolitical risk is elevated also—less from pandemic headlines, more from tax headlines.

What is my job heading into a big week like this?

It is not to be a tax expert, whipping up some hot takes to tweet out.

It is not to hold hands with strangers on the internet as they wager their fortunes of their own.

My job, quite simply, is to extract as much fiat american dollar as possible from the global financial complex. That’s it. My job is to focus on the auction. My job is to make a plan and then execute that plan. My job is to obey the risk protocols I put in place before the action heats up. My job is to nurture my mind and body and make time to look inward, to maintain unbiased thoughts. To only allow the lens of the auction to tint my perspective.

Said fiat is eventually to be converted into real assets—concrete and steel and energy generation. Stuff to augment my mortal existence as my ability and willingness toil whither away. Robots. Absurdly German kitchens. Giant shrubs to keep the noise of reality away from my person.

Why though? Why build a giant playground? To benefit as many people as possible. To create places where people feel safe taking drugs and exploring their psyche. To heal the soil and feed as many people as I can nutritious organic, safe, sustainable food. To love thyself. Pleasure.

That’s it. Let’s set aside the fun tokens and crypto toys for now. The big guns are set to report. Let the shitcoins simmer. Certainly don’t sell anything. But focus on our True Leaders. Big Tech.

Maybe give the Fed, that archaic institution that loses its relevance daily, a bit of attention also.

Raul Santos, April 25th, 2021

Here is the 335th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy:

Stocklabs Strategy Session: 04/26/21 – 04/30/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.53, medium bull*.  Expect higher prices but allow earnings out of Big Tech to dictate direction as the week progresses.

Tesla reports Monday after-market-close (AMC). Microsoft and Alphabet (Google) Tuesday AMC. Apple and Facebook Wednesday AMC, Amazon Thursday AMC.

FOMC announcement and press conference Wednesday afternoon.

*IndexModel flagged extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias, see Section IV.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Big chop. Weakness early in the week, strength into the weekend. Russell bullish divergent.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Sort of a mishmash of negative returns.

neutral.

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows just barely skewed positive. Fairly subdued.

I am beginning to question the volume delta data because it is pinned down around -40% these last few weeks. Median return was about +40 basis points.

Money flows are neutral.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Huge week ahead

Month-end. All Big Tech outlets reporting. Geopolitical risk remains elevated with the pandemic and tax talk out of the White House. Plus the FOMC announcement Wednesday.

There is nothing wrong with standing aside and letting all this information price out. That said, if we can stay in the rhythm of the action, the upcoming week presents elevated opportunity.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Expect higher prices but allow earnings out of Big Tech to dictate direction as the week progresses.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors holdings highs, Transports continue to rally

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are nearly making a new high. Discovery up continues. Bullish.

See below:

Semiconductors can fall a bit more and still have a discovery up set-up. For now, this looks like discovery up.

See below:

V. Stocklabs Hybrid Oversold

On Tuesday, April 20th Stocklabs flagged oversold on the 6 month algorithim. This bullish cycle runs through end-of-day May 4th. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VI. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is flagging extreme rose colored sunglasses for a third consecutive week after being neutral three weeks back and having flagged extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses four weeks back after being neutral four weeks before that after signaling Bunker Buster eight weeks ago after being neutral for the thirteen weeks prior to that.

Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses calls for a calm sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias. With a bias spread over +1 we expect buyers to pressure the tape higher late into the week.

Here is the current spread:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“I succeed because I have a long attention span.” Charlie Munger

Trade simple, step back if you lose focus

Comments »

Last week and the weekend were really something. Around Tuesday I kept saying that I, “struck the blarney stone,” which makes no sense. One kisses the blarney stone, and upon kissing it is mystically endowed with eloquence and persuasiveness.

In my brain I think I was making a Moses reference, when he was supposed to talk the rock into giving his people water but he bashed it with a stick instead and it gave water righty-o but then he had to roam the desert for like idk 20 years. But I was instilling it with some Irish luck, because I pushed my agenda on some fine folks and they responded kindly and my projects finally caught some traction. Around Tuesday.

Anyhow, then doge went bananas and sort of sent me for a spin after making quite the impression on my net worth. Suddenly, the doge I hold is catching up to the fiat american value of my dear TSLA position.

But in reality nothing has changed. I still wear 18 dollar Unionbay joggers every day with beat up vibram barefoot shoes that look like rags but make my old hips feel okay, and at night I either eat giant plates of sauteed vegetable or Del Taco drive thru all whist drinking cheap hooch.

I am reading The White Album by Joan Didion right now and it is the finest non-fiction I’ve read since the pandemic began. I want to share an exerpt from the chapter titled In Hollywood because it resonated with my speculative work and odd mentality of late:

“The place makes everyone a gambler. Its spirit is speedy, obsessive, immaterial. The action itself is the art form, and is described in aesthetic terms: “A very imaginative deal,” they say, or, “He write the most creative deals in business.” There is in Hollywood, as in all cultures in which gambling is the central activity, a lowered sexual energy, an inability to devote more than token attention to the preoccupations of the society outside. The action is everything, more consuming than sex, more immediate than politics; more important always than the acquisition of money, which is never, for the gambler, the true point of the exercise.”

I talk on the telephone to an agent, who tells me that he has on his desk a check made out to a client for $1,275,000, the client’s share of first profits on a picture now in release. Last week, in someone’s office, I was shown another such check, this one made out for $4,850,000. Every year there are a few such checks around town. An agent will speak of such a check as being, “on my desk,” or “on Guy McElwaine’s desk,” as if the exact physical location lent the piece of paper its credibility. One year they might be the Midnight Cowboy and Butch Cassidy checks, another year the Love Story and Godfather checks.

In a curious way these checks are not “real,” not real money in the sense that a check for a thousand dollars can be real money; no one “needs” $4,850,000, nor is it really disposable income. It is instead the unexpected payoff on a dice rolled a year or two before, and its reality is altered not only by the time lapse but by the fact that no one ever counted on the payoff. A four-million-dollar windfall has the aspect only of Monopoly money, but the actual pieces of paper which bear such figures have, in the community, a totemic significance. They are totems of the action…”

I think I need to get outside more man. I need to regain a pure sense of why I take to the speculative markets, day-and-day, methodically extracting fiat american dollars from the global financial complex. I know I’ve reiterated my purpose here a hundred times (land, cement, greenhouses, solar, etc) but I need to feel it viscerally, down in my plumbs for real. All this mouse click money has me a bit out of touch. I deserve to be successful and consistent. I work hard. I just want to make sure I remember the purpose.

Raul Santos, April 18th 2021

And now the 334th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy:

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 04/19/21 – 04/23/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.80, medium bull*.  Sideways drift, perhaps with slight upward bias. Then look for Intel earnings Thursday after-market-close to put direction into the tape heading into the weekend.

*IndexModel flagged extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias, see Sections III and IV.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Choppy Monday. Rally Tuesday. Afternoon sellers Wedneday. Strong rally into the weekend. NASDAQ lagged a bit.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

After two solid weeks of sector rotations, with quality tech and discretionary leadership, the lowest quality sectors (utilities, staples, healthcare) were out front last week. Discretionary did manage to flank them.

neutral.

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Six weeks back we had major buy flows. Three weeks back we saw follow through on them. Then we had two big money flow pushes to the buy side. Two weeks back was balanced.

Last week skewed slightly negative.

Median return last week was over +75 basis points and volume delta over the last 30 days remains quite negative (-41%).

No word yet on having 1-week volume delta added to the screener.

Money flows are neutral.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses

When IndexModel logs a bias spread greater than +1 that tends to be a bullish signal. The beginning of the week has 50/50 odds directionally, but the later we go into the week the more the bullish statistics kick in.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Sideways drift, perhaps with slight upward bias. Then look for Intel earnings Thursday after-market-close to put direction into the tape heading into the weekend.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors still flag along the highs, likelihood of more discovery up increases

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are maybe coming into balance. Long term discovery up remains in tact.

See below:

Semiconductors still flagging along the highs. The longer they can hold these highs the more bullish it becomes. This industry group is becoming the highlight of policy lately, and is therefore subject to elevated geopolitical risk going forward.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is flagging extreme rose colored sunglasses for a second consecutive week after being neutral Two weeks back and having flagged extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses three weeks back after being neutral four weeks before that after signaling Bunker Buster seven weeks ago after being neutral for the thirteen weeks prior to that.

Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses calls for a calm sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias. With a bias spread over +1 we expect buyers to pressure the tape higher late into the week.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“If you quit once it becomes a habit. Never quit.” Michael Jordan

Trade simple, dedication

Comments »

It could be all this moderna juice dribbling throughout my blood system or it could be that I took Claratin-D at 7pm and had a meth-head insomnia session filled with twitter addiction and soil research. Or it could be that we have a pretty big gap up just a touch below all-time highs but within the prior day (double distribution trend down) range. That is a tricky set up.

But all these powers combined tell me I’d better not trade today. I’m old, lads, nearly 36, and in my many years a’speculating I’ve become inclined to know when the cards are stacked against me.

The humongous gains my accounts made yesterday in the wide world of decentralized finance sent me on a hubris climb. Now my prop is roaring away, screaming really, but my ship is not gaining any more altitude.

She needs to stall, dip down, gain some speed and right her course. My psyche that is.

So I’m going to take it real easy like. Maybe head up to the local diner, flash my vaccine passport, then sip coffee whilst watching the news teevee. Then idk probably poke around in the garden for a bit. Take a nap. Bake some bread and then read some Joan Didion. I live a life of wealth and class and leisure.

Trade-em well lads. Here are my screens heading into today, for whatever that is worth:

Raul Santos, April 15th 2021

Comments »

There is not much for me to do with the NASDAQ up at these levels, and I have several matters to attend to today not the least of which is having the second Moderna inoculation, therefore I shall not be trading or posting a trading report today.

The reason I have opted into the vaccine program is simple—I seek out and engage any opportunity to signal my virtue over the smooth-brained conservatards who suck down pound-after-pound of bird meat while typing their greasy-fingered delusions onto the internet. Solar panels. Organic gardens. LGBQT fund raisers. Bill Gates. Electric cars. The New York Times. Big Tech stocks. Science. And so on.

I intend to carry a laminated vaccine card and brandish it readily to every single clerk, doorman, barkeep, stranger, hobo, to let them know I am a care bear who goes with the swirls. Vibin’ for the sake of vibin and signaling we’re all going to be FINE.

Whether or not someone else chooses to vaccinate, I couldn’t care less. My life is one of privilege. Where I’m surrounded by folks with a lot of class who don’t walk around with rude’tudes. Little oases of culture in a city on the verge of anarchy. The only time I really deal with macho shit heads is at hardware stores and driving between the oasises (oasisseas?).

Drugs are a big part of my life. Experimentation is important to the evolutionary process. Modifying my RNA is the most exciting test since taking a heroic dose of LSD at a masquerade.

Mushrooms show you what you need to see. If you have demons in your psyche, messed up things you’ve done as a mortal, well, you gone be confronted by them. Can you show mercy and be compassionate and forgiving? Nice. Maybe expand that energy to others. And everyone. When you’re ready.  Now if you’ve been frolicking around the secret enchanted broccoli forests, healing birds and shit, well, the mushrooms are going to open your eyes to the entire universe because they’re diggin’ your vibe man.

I try so heckin’ hard not to stoop to the level of these paranoid hicks still flying ten Trump flags on their 10-acer lawns.

“mY goVeneRs aN idIot”

If you spot it. You got it.

I do better in the city. Isolation of the “Police Lives Matter” crowd into bum towns way out on the outer fringes of rural America, where they can festoon their trash around the lawn and fly special flags in peace is sufficient punishment for these wannabe Vic Mackeys. Their leader is banished.  That 70-something fat man full of hamburgers and hate was excommunicated from the world of policy. The ethos of hate is fragmented and scattered, alone and without a signal. Like wickies in a broken lighthouse, desperately seeking ways to rekindle their Handmaid’s Tale flame. And us city folk are listening to James Brown, eating the best cuisine in the world, doing our yoga stretches all naked in hot rooms, and rave dancing until the birds start singing.

What’s next?

Weed—federally legal. Universal basic income—inevitable. Jobs in accounting, transportation, and more—automated away. Graduates of higher learning institutions—debt erased.

Wake up or be relegated to the boon sticks by the woke.

Now I am off for my apex predator breakfast—COFFEE.

Lunch—Soylent.

Dinner—Moderna#2 with a side salad.

Raul Santos, April 14th 2021

Comments »

G’dday lads. Not much on my mind so I shall keep this brief.

You have, all of you have, perhaps 70 productive years on this rare planet we call earth. Consider what you leave in your wake.

Not so much as legacy, but in the words of Franklin D. Roosevelt, “The nation that destroys its soil destroys itself.” What are you leaving behind besides poop? What are your other waste streams? What will you leave behind.

On that note, I must be off. I have undertaken a large soil remediation project and with the power of my brain I intend to right what my predessors have wronged, or at least prove the gen-pop wrong in a strange new way.

This is what I do. I challenge conventional wisdom. I make people money. And I fuck.

Models have a slight bullish tilt heading into next week.

Raul Santos, April 11th, 2021

And now the 333rd edition of Strategy Session:

Stocklabs Strategy Session: 04/12/21 – 04/16/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.60, medium bull*. Sideways drift, with any big moves in either direction being faded back to unchanged by week’s end.

Major bank earnings due out Wednesday and Thursday before market open may have an impact on overall price action.

*IndexModel flagged extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias, see Sections III and IV.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Strong rally Monday. Consolidation of the gains through Wendesday. Gap higher Thursday and continuation rally through Friday and into the weekend. Russell 2000 lagged.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Another week of out performance from key Tech and Discretionary sectors. Everything else besides Energy flanking alongside with small gains.

bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Five weeks back we had major buy flows. It wasn’t until two weeks back that we saw follow through on them. But now we have. The last two big money flow pushes have been to the buy side.

Last week was totally balanced. Neutral.

Median return last week a bit less than +50 basis points  and volume delta over the last 30 days is quite negative.

No word yet on having 1-week volume delta added to the screener.

Money flows are neutral.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses

This signal comes from the market model I built and managed which is called IndexModel. It is based on auction theory.

When it goes extreme rose colored sunglasses we historically have seen calm action which is usually better suited for stock picking then it is for futures trading.

That said, when the signal is live I will definitely be trading any gap down in range for the fill and then be playing to take out either (or both) overnight high and range extension up.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Sideways drift, with any big moves in either direction being faded back to unchanged by week’s end.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors flag along the highs, more discovery?

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports continue to steadily discovering new higher prices.

See below:

Semiconductors performed a mini discovery phase up out of recent balance and are now flagging along the highs. Heading into next week this is anything but bearish.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is flagging extreme rose colored sunglasses after being neutral last week and having  flagged extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses two weeks back after being neutral three weeks before that after signaling Bunker Buster six weeks ago after being neutral for the thirteen weeks prior to that.

Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses calls for a calm sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“it is unwise to be too sure of one’s own wisdom.” Mahatma Gandhi

Trade simple, stay curious

 

Comments »

Readers of the Strategy Session know I’ve taken a keen interest in the 6-month technical oversold signal generated by Stocklabs. That’s because on a 10-year back test of 47 instances it has a win rate of nearly 64% over 10 days. The most signal occurred on March 24th and did a solid job of nailing a rally. Behold:

Seeing The Fly’s Time Machine consistently forecast market action all these years has kept me loyal to the iBankCoin banner. It is my duty to be accountable to the team behind the scenes here and also to anyone who wants to take ownership of their investment fate using these tools.

Anyhow, I am out of rythem with the markets after sitting out the last couple opening bells. Therefore, and without regret, I shall take today off as well. No sense sullying my weekend mind by forcing some trades into the /nq.

Have a strong cocked weekend, and I shall be back Sunday,

Raul Santos, April 9th 2021

Comments »

One impulse commonly exhibited by the ego of a trader is to short a move like we’ve seen this week — usually this low-value instinct kicks in after missing the primary move.

Makes the trader feel smart again. Yeah. Bet against the primary move and fade the herd yeah.

No thanks.

First of all the humble Raul blog (hRb) has been advocating for heavy investments in Big Tech all along. Secondly, the last four weeks of Strategy Sessions have leaned bullish. Thirdly we had a bunker buster back a the end of February and that’s when I deployed lots of fresh capital into the markets. Now my job is to get fat off the land. The seeds were planted, they grew, now I just gotta feed them occasionally and give lots of water and wait for them to ripen at the end of the year. Then harvest.

I didn’t buy any Tesla in the first quarter and I may not buy any in the second quarter either. It is still my largest position by quite a lot, but an astute reader may have picked up my subtle drift towards advocating other Big Tech tickers. There’s a reason for that. Tesla printed a failed auction right at a big fat round number many moons ago. Those can take months, quarters, to resolve.

My optimistic outlook for daddy Elon’s Tesla has not changed, but being a modern chartist (no head and shoulders plebbery) I must acknowledge when it is best to back off a thesis and let it simmer while pressing other campaigns. Campaigns like Noble Jacked Dorsey’s Twitter. I am more bullish on Twitter than ever. They banned the people who were ruining the platform. Jack’s humility is contagious. And there are rumors that they’re on the hunt to buy other agencies like gay boy Clubhouse. All of this is bullish.

I am also super bullish on the FTT brokerage tokens. That feller in charge at FTT is some kind of idiot savant, sleeping on beaned bags and making billions, developing synthetic equities. Did you know coinbase stock is already trading on FTT? Think about that, while you’re left trading fucking NIO and PLUG and other shit stocks. FTT has found a way to make Coinbase shares already tradable. Also, U.S. residents aren’t even allowed to own FTT tokens. That barrier to entry also present a unique opportunity.

So I am busy elsewhere, in stuff like that and building pineapple fountains, all while I wait for the damn counter contractor to show up so I can finish the heckin’ kitchen.

I’ve planted beets, carrots, mustard spinach and started asparagus.

That’s about it. In essence. Now is the time do to nothing.

Ho ho ho,

Raul Santos, April 8th 2021

Comments »

There isn’t much opportunity for me here left today. Around 7am NEW YORK the buyers stepped in and did the only thing I would’a done which’is’to work price back up through yesterday’s trend day high.

That’s a high probability set-up.

I deal in high probability set-ups and hustling opening bell.

I work too hardt.

On a day like this, when the weather folks are saying its gonna be about 80, and the NASDAQ has a tiny risk/reward, my job is to go work the land.

The stock market (and cryptos) have an ‘all clear’ to rally through the rest of the year. You’ll have some ‘sell in May’ types trying to stoke up some fear here soon. Ignore them. Just hunker into the best tickers and cruise into year-end. Once Elon’s Tesla starts printing CyberTrucks we’ll be looking for a broad, multi-year correction in big tech equity and crypto as humans start to shift their positioning into real things.

So it is written. So it shall be. I expand on this line of thinking at the bottom of last Sunday’s blog.

Trade’em well today lads. I am off to survey my next hole dig.

Raul Santos, April 6th 2021

Comments »

For three hundred and thirty two weeks I’ve sat down and done one-to-four hours of stock market research, augmented by Exodus and Multicharts and MICROSOFT EXCEL. I will not stop doing this work because it is what got me to where I am today — a consistently profitable trader who can safely trade alongside institutions. Institutions, mind you, who command exponentially more resources then your sweet Uncle Baby Raul.

The report is simply being transitioned out from behind the Exodus paywall to here, on the public blog, free for consumption.

I’ve never been a fan of hoarding information.

When I started this odd adventure as an anonymous internet trader some ten years ago it was because the institutions of higher learning had failed me. Turns out a degree in finance doesn’t get you any further along the path to being a consistently profitable trader.

I went online to learn more.

I assumed an alias because I was earning a meaningful salary from Corporate America (Sonny says the working mans a sucker and I agree) and didn’t want them to see me out here, riding-round-gettin-it, while also drawing a salary.

Paywalls always bothered me. I paid thousands in the quest to learn more. Dealt with so many charlatans and a few all around decent traders.

Oh boy I am rambling. In short — I never did this for any of you. It was for me and it continues to be for me. I’ve managed to meet some great people along the way, and I like to think I’ve helped a few others experience that glorious “a-ha” moment in their own trading.

And that’s good enough for me.

I’m doing real fine. Weekend research shall continue. Peep the bottom of this blog for this week’s entry.

One thing I hope to make abundantly clear is that before I take my style of trades, many of which last less than ten minutes, I have put several hours of work in beforehand. I am like crocodile. Sitting in the mud thinking about making to kill but doing nothing, then all at once attacking with the rip force of ten women.

Enough of that. Here is my prediction for the rest of this year. I will start to amplify this prediction as the weeks and months go by because it came to me while I was gardening and it was the first good thought I’ve had in months and I expect it was sent from the old gods and I want to share it with you:

Big Tech and crypto currencies, all of them and their NFTs, can rally until Elon’s Tesla starts printing Cybertrucks. The moment Cybertrucks start rolling out of those tents in the desert and being delivered, will likely market (not the end) but the beginning of a solid pause in non-tangible asset appreciation. The Cybertruck really is a perfect mechanic representation of who these people are. Technocrats KIND OF. Big Tech/crypto investors are like everything that was promised in 1990 as being futuristic, plus Saved By The Bell, with a dash of Reddit, made into a human. And that is what the CyberTruck is, a car in meme form. We are going to see these investors shift their resources away from the fucking fairy dust that is crypto and BIG TECH and it will start with buying a Cybertruck. And then that purchase is going to change their life. They’re going to start seeing everything differently. More like how I already see things. And realize that money is better invested in real things — cement and energy generation and steel and irrigation. And as their/our wealth shifts to real things, crypto and Big Tech prices will stagnate.

So it is written. So it shall be.

Now whether or not this plays out I can assure you of two things — my predictions don’t matter to you. They matter to me because everything is a game in my jalopy of a brain and having good explanations is how I can have faith in my long-term moves.  Faith in the trajectory of my brief mortal life. Second — even if my prediction plays out, to the tee, and I milk Big Tech and Crypto for the next nine months then sell a bit, live, under the premise of this prediction, I still won’t be popular on Finance Twitter.

Selah.

Alright enough of that also. Cheers to a fruitful second quarter.

Raul Santos, April 5th 2021

And now the Strategy Session. Enjoy:

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 04/05/21 – 04/09/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.53, medium bull. Rally into Wednesday afternoon. Then look for third reaction to the FOMC minutes to provide direction into the second half of the week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Choppy through Tuesday then a rally through to end of Thursday. Closed Friday.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Rotation into key drivers, Tech and Discretionary. Everything else sort of mixed.

slightly bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Four weeks back we had major buy flows. It wasn’t really until last week that we saw follow through on them. But now we have. The last two big money flow pushes have been to the buy side.

Median return last week was nearly +2.5%  and volume delta over the last 30 days is negative.

What we need. And I will discuss this with The Fly, is a 1-week volume delta. That would help us make actionable use of the volume delta data Stocklabs has.

Money flows are bullish.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Looking back at the confluence of bullish signals last week

On Thursday, March 18 Stocklabs flagged oversold on the 3-month technical and hybrid signals. You may notice I never include any 3-month signals in the Weekly Strategy Session, but lately I’ve been giving it more consideration. That signal cycle ended at the end of Thursday. Here is the final performance of each major index during the cycle:

The 3-month technical oversold is worth tracking. It has a decent probability of success into the second half of the cycle.

We also had a 6-month Tech oversold cycle trigger March 24^th. The tech signal has better stats on this timeframe than the hybrid. Here are the performance stats of each index so far for this cycle:

Finally, last week we had Indexmodel going extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias. A third bullish signal.

When the proverbial deck stacks up like this, that is the time to press our convictions.

That said. We have only the tail end of the 6-month oversold signal and nothing else heading into next week. Maybe we are not pressing our trades as hard. Quicker scalps.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Rally into Wednesday afternoon. Then look for third reaction to the FOMC minutes to provide direction into the second half of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors pop out of range, testing sellers

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports continue to steadily discovering new higher prices.

See below:

Semiconductors, if you recall, had that obvious-looking head-and-shoulders pattern in place for a few weeks. We mostly ignored it, but noted its existence, because often times those overly apparent chart patterns don’t work out for the arm-chair analysts.

Instead we focus where we always focus—is it balance or discovery? The last trading session of last week makes it look like we’re abandoning the range we established in a campaign to start a fresh leg of discovery up. However, I am not so sure. The range below is likely to exert some magnetic force, at least it has the potential, heading into next week.

My call is that we are still in a range-bound market on the semiconductors but I am not certain.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral after flagging extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses last week after being neutral hree weeks before that after signaling Bunker Buster five weeks ago after being neutral for the thirteen weeks prior to that.

No bias heading into next week.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Don’t be a hero. Don’t have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don’t ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead.” Paul Tudor Jones

Trade simple, accept your weaknesses

 

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Extreme emotions are not helpful to the investor/trader. Nor is it to be totally dead inside. Awareness is key. Know thyself. Know also that your ego is not your amigo. So whatever that dashing lad in the mirror is saying to you in your pretty head–take it with a grain of salt.

We gotta be so careful to protect our energy. Our job as progressive, successful participants in society is to seek good explanations for events. There are billion dollar industries, and even modestly successful websites, built on peddling bad explanations for how/why the market behaves the way it does.

For years, about nine, I’ve offered an objective explanation for market behavior and walked through life, live, one week then one day at a time, chronicling how I see things, what I am doing and how it is working out.

Last week was, in my subjective point-of-view, a body of work that I would consider art. Behold:

Alongside these entries, I further discussed my actions on Twitter (@IndexModel) where I am easily one of the most well-known and least popular finance handles in existence.

What is popular? Jokes. MEMES. I like memes. Strong emotional outbursts.

I like memes. Last week’s boat memes have been great fun.

What is not popular? Some dude with laser eyes putting on a seminar in consistent profitability.

Fine.

I never wanted to be popular on the internets. It comes at too great a cost. Too many loons and I work to hardt as it is to have privacy so I can do my psychedelics in peace.

Anyhow. I have several indicators lining up bullish into quarter end. I intend to work the long side of the tape via the NASDAQ 100 futures as good set-ups present themselves while doing nothing with my massive Twitter and Del Taco positions.

Cheers to the week.

Raul Santos, March 28th 2021

And now, the Sunday Research that powers everything I do. Enjoy:

Stocklabs Strategy Session: 03/29/21 – 04/02/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.50, medium bull*. Choppy, sideways action into quarter-end, perhaps with a slight upward bias. Then look for non-farm payroll data Friday morning to provide direction into the weekend.

*Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses (e[RCS]) bullish bias triggered. See Section IV.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Conviction buying Monday. Seller control Tuesday through Thursday morning. Sharp excess low formed Thursday then a rally into the weekend which was accentuated by a late Friday ramp.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Strong rotations across the board, except for key Discretionary sector. Slightly unsettling leadership from Staples and Utilities.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Don’t forget the major buy flows three weeks back. We have not seen any follow through on them yet, nor have we seen any selling of a magnitude that would expect us to doubt upside follow through.

Two weeks ago most of the selling was seen in energy industry groups which we’ve already established trade independent of the overall market.

Last week’s flows did skew slightly bearish, but not quite enough to negate that massive buy flow three weeks ago.

Median return last week  was below -1.5% and volume delta over the last 30 days is negative.

What we need. And I will discuss this with The Fly, is a 1-week volume delta. That would help us make actionable use of the volume delta data Stocklabs has.

Money flows are neutral.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Three month oversold signal lines up with e(RCS) into quarter-end

On Thursday, March 18 Stocklabs flagged oversold on the 3-month technical and hybrid signals. You may notice I never include any 3-month signals in the Weekly Strategy Session, but lately I’ve been giving it more consideration.

The 3-month has a decent probability of success into the second half of the cycle. Now we also have a 6-month Tech oversold cycle in play AND Indexmodel going extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias.

These factors are stacking up to favor a bullish bias.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Choppy, sideways action into quarter-end, perhaps with a slight upward bias. Then look for non-farm payroll data Friday morning to provide direction into the weekend.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors probe top of balance, Transports discovery up mode

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports steadily discovering new higher prices.

See below:

Semiconductors have that head-and-shoulders pattern printed and it is so obvious it likely won’t play out how technical analysts expect. However, we are nearing the top-side of our range. How we behave up here will tell a story heading into Q2.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is flagging extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses after being neutral for three weeks after signaling Bunker Buster four weeks ago and being neutral for the thirteen weeks prior to that. E(RCS) calls for a sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“We buy things we don’tt need, with money we don’t have, to impress people we don’t like.” Chuck Palahniuk, Fight Club

Trade simple, clarify your reason for getting’ money

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