For the first time in 2018 we experienced volume and range within the confined of ‘normal’ relative to a five year study of the instrument.  There have been several days with normal range, or normal volume, but not both.  This may or may not be significant.  Price worked to a new weekly high overnight before coming into balance.

The only economic event today is University of Michigan’s primary May reading of confidence.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began with a gap up and sellers unable to work into it.  Then the rest of the day was spent slowly campaigning higher prices unseen since March 19th.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6964.75.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 6979.50 setting up a move to close the open gap at 6999.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers trade down through overnigh5t low 6948.50.  Look for buyers around 6917.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers work up to 7022.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price worked higher overnight, pausing briefly as we explored levels unseen since late-March, and ultimately spending the night campaigning higher.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out better-than-expected and CPI data came out mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have a big Treasury auction; at 1pm the US Treasury will auction off $17 billion in 30-year notes.  At 2pm there is a monthly budget statement, and after-market-close NVIDIA is set to report earnings.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began gap up, out-of-range.  Sellers worked into it and soon found a strong responsive bid.  Buyers became initiative ahead of lunch and pressed higher before coming into balance at the highs late in the afternoon.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to wok into overnight inventory but stall around 6907.75 setting up a move to take out overnight high 6823.50.  Look for sellers up at 6963.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work a gap fill down to 6896 and continue lower, down through overnight low 6888.75.  Look for buyers down at 6879 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade us down to 6832.50 effectively eliminating Wednesday’s rally.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price worked higher overnight, stalling just below the Monday cash high.  Overall the globex auction stayed contained in the balance that has been forming since Sunday.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and a 10-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began gap down and sellers made the first move, pushing lower but failing to close the Friday gap.  Instead responsive buyers (responsive relative to the Tuesday open, initiative relative to the Friday close) stepped in and pushed higher, closing the overnight gap.  This put us range extension up.  Responsive sellers stepped in and formed a sharp excess high before we went range extension down, putting us neutral.  After closing the Friday gap we again traversed the entire range and closed near session high.

Neutral extreme.  Choppy.

Heading into today my primary expectation is fro sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6821.50.  From here we continue lower, down though overnight low 6812.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers take out overnight (weak) high at 6850 setting up a move to target 6856.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 6864.25 setting up a move to target the open gap at 6883.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, briefly probing below the Monday cash low before settling into balance.

The economic calendar is light today.  We have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am then a 3-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up beyond the Friday range and morning drive higher from buyers.  There was a brief range extension but not by much, the rest of the day was spent chopping and in balance.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6824.50.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 6837.50.  Look for sellers up at 6856.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, down through overnight low 6791 setting up a move to target 6766.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down into last Friday’s trend up, probing down to the naked VPOC at 6750 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range.  Price campaigned higher overnight, trading up to prices unseen since about three weeks back before coming into balance.

The economic calendar is light this week.  Today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am and consumer credit at 3pm.

Last week was choppy.  Sellers took action early in the week.  Price moved methodically lower.  Buyers stepped Tuesday afternoon and again Thursday.  Friday the NASDAQ showed divergent strength and made preliminary attempts to break away from a muti-week consolidation.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a trend up.  The day was spent auctioning higher and working through some key contextual levels that suggest the tech-heavy index may be breaking up and away from a multi-week correction.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a choppy open.  Look for buyers to eventually step in and move up through overnight high 6833.  Look for sellers up at 6845.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work down into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6776 and continue lower through overnight low 6772.25.  Look for buyers around 6766 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers campaign up to 6857 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price was balanced for most of the evening, chopping along the Wednesday low until about 8am when it pushed down into the Tuesday, May 1st range.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out better-than-expected.

Also on the economic agenda today we have ISM non-manufacturing/service composite, durable goods, and factory orders at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  The day began flat and choppy, with sellers making an initial push down to 6666 early on, then a secondary push to put us range extension down before flattening out at the daily mid ahead of the FOMC rate decision.  Feds left their benchmark borrowing rate unchanged via an 8-0 vote.  Third reaction after the announcement was down.  First reaction pushed us neutral, and we eventually traversed the entire range and closed on the lows.

Neutral extreme.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go down.  Look for a battle at 6600 to ultimately give way to more selling, down to close the gap at 6554.75.  Look for responsive buyers at 6545 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work into overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6632.50.  Look for sellers at 6641.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trigger a liquidation down to 6532.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range on elevated volume.  Price sprung higher in the initial hours of Globex, propelled by strong-as-ever earnings from the world’s largest company, Apple.  Then we came into balance, hovering inside last Friday’s range. At 8:15am ADP employment data came out better than expected.

Also on the economic agenda today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and an FOMC rate decision at 2pm.  The gambling halls down in Chicago are currently placing a 94.3% probability that the Fed will leave their benchmark borrowing rate unchanged.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution up.  The day began gap down and with an attempt lower.  Responsive buyers quickly stepped in and closed the gap.  Then we traded sideways while the rest of the market sold off.  Just after New York lunch a rally started to materialize, and we rallied clean through end-of-day and into Apple earnings.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push down to 6666 before two way trade ensues ahead of FOMC rate decision.  Use third reaction analysis after the decision to determine direction into end-of-day.

Hypo 2 buyer work up through overnight high 6740 setting up a move to target 6757.25 before two way trade ensues ahead of FOMC rate decision.  Use third reaction analysis after the decision to determine direction into end-of-day.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers work up and close the open gap at 6777 before two way trade ensues ahead of FOMC rate decision.  Use third reaction analysis after the decision to determine direction into end-of-day.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and normal volume.  An uncommon sight over the last few months, to see such normal metrics.  Price was balanced overnight, probing below the Monday cash low but overall remaining in the holding patter that began around noon Monday.

On the economic calendar today we have construction spending at 10am, ISM employment/manufacturing data at 10am, and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

After the bell, the largest public company in the world, Apple, is set to report earnings.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  It was shaped like a lowercase letter-b, which suggests a long liquidation took place without sellers ever becoming truly initiative.  This short-term phenomenon often occurs near the end of a move, and unless sellers continue pressing into the tape, remaining short becomes a precarious endeavor.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, down to 6580.75 before we pause and wait to hear Apple earnings.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6612.75 then continue higher, up to 6660 before two way trade ensues ahead of Apple earnings.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers become initiative and work down and close the gap at 6554.75 that we left behind on from last Wednesday.  Look for buyers at 6545 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ future are starting the week gap up after an overnight session featuring normal volume on elevated range.  Price was balanced overnight, trotting along inside of last Friday’s range.  At 8:30am personal consumption data came out in-line with expectations.

Also on the economic agenda today we have Chicago purchasing manager at 9:45am, pending home sales at 10am, and both a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week was choppy.  Sellers stepped in late Monday morning and became initiative into Tuesday, trending markets lower.  They pressed into the open Wednesday and discovered a strong responsive bid ahead of major tech earnings, earnings which ultimately served to propel the NASDAQ higher into Thursday and Friday morning.  Then Friday morning sellers stepped in again before we balanced early Friday and traded sideways into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down.  The day began gap up, likely in part from tech earnings that came out Thursday evening.  Sellers stepped in and worked the market lower for much of the morning before we balanced and traded sideways into the weekend.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6668.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 6660.50.  Look for buyers down at 6648 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 6712.50 setting up a move to target 6757 before two way trade ensues, effectively negating last Friday’s conviction seller.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers sustain trade below 6640 setting up a move to target 6617.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight after surging higher Thursday afternoon on strong earnings from Amazon.  Microsoft and Intel also reported positive earnings.  Tech is alive and growing.  Prices continued higher around 8:30am after US GDP came out better-than-expected.

It also appears the world issues with North Korea have been resolved, in a large part due to President Trump.

The only other economic event today comes at 10am when University of Michigan releases their final April reading of sentiment.

Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began gap up and with sellers unable to work lower.  Instead buyers sustained price above 6631 setting up a move to target 6700 (hypo 2).  Price continued higher after the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory.  Look for buyers ahead of 6755 and a move higher, up to 6777 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, sustaining trade above 6800, setting up a move to target 6843 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press a full gap fill down to 6736.25.  Look for buyers ahead of 6700 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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