NASDAQ futures are coming into the new week/month/quarter gap up after an overnight session featuring its own gap up, then elevated range on extreme volume.  Price chopped along overnight until about 8pm New York when it attempted to press down into the gap up that occurred when globex opened for trade at 6pm.  Buyers rejected the move and price worked up beyond the initial chop.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering near globex highs, trading inside the 05/03 range, just about 30 points off of record highs.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM manufacturing/employment along with construction spending at 10am, then both a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week was mostly a sideways drift.  Monday was flat, Tuesday saw strong selling but no follow through for the rest of the week.  Instead we marked time by trading inside the Tuesday range, going sideways for the rest of the week.  The Russell demonstrated relative strength throughout the balance.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up that was sold into.  Buyers showed up just below the Thursday low, before sellers could press range extension down, and price rallied to back near the highs.  We did not go range extension up however until the final moments of the session when a strong ramp took prices to a 3-day high as we ended the week.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, closing the open gap up at 7865 then continuing higher to tag 7888 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight low 7772.75 setting up a move to target 7759.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 full on trend up.  Trade up through 7888 and sustain trade above it, setting up an exploration of open air.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced for most of the overnight session, chopping along the lower quadrant of Tuesday’s range before spiking higher around 5am.  The spike discovered sellers around Tuesday’s midpoint and as we approach cash open price is hovering below the Tuesday mid.  At 8:30am durable goods and advance goods trade balance data came out  _____________.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by a 2-year note auction at 11:30am and a 5-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The day began with a gap down and drive lower.  The selling slowed briefly after closing the 06/19 open gap but continued to trend lower until about 3pm.  We spent the rest of the day chopping along the low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7629.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 7616.25 setting up a move to tag the 7600 century mark.  Look for buyers down at 7576 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 7698 to tag the 7700 century mark.  Look for sellers up at 7734 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers close the gap down at 7561.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight after briefly poking up beyond the Monday high.  The selling pressure took prices down near last Thursday’s low but was unable to probe beyond the Thursday low before coming into balance.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering along the Friday low.

On the economic calendar today we have new home sales and consumer confidence at 10am, also Fed Chairman Powell talking economic outlook and policy at 1pm at the same time as a 2-year note auction.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down, barely.  The day began with a gap up that sellers quickly resolved.  The rest of the day was spent chopping in a tight balance.  Very late in the session we went range extension down by one tick.  This is the ‘barely’ that made it a normal variation down instead of the uncommon ‘normal’ day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to regain the Monday range and close the gap up to 7759.50,  From here we continue higher, taking out overnight high 7779.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers reject price down and away from Monday low 7749.25 setting up a move to take out overnight low 7714.25.  Look for buyers down at the 7700 century mark and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers tag 7800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price marked time overnight, bobbing along the Tuesday midpoint for the duration of Globex.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering above the mid.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by the FOMC rate decision at 2pm which will be followed at 2:30pm with a press conference with Fed Chairman Powell.  Investors down at the Chicago Mercantile are currently placing 24.2% odds of a 25 basis points rate hike.  This is a live meeting.

Yesterday we printed normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up and after a brief opening two-way auction buyers drove higher.  Price rallied up into the 05/07 range, a day which marked the breakdown from a multi-day consolidation up near record highs.  The 05/08 open gap was closed along the way.  By late morning responsive sellers were discovered and we worked back down to the daily midpoint.  We spent the rest of the day marking time along the mid, eventually closing right on it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press up through overnight high 7691 and sustain trade above it, setting up a test up through Tuesday high 7721.75.  There’s open air until 7800 but look for sellers at 7750 and two way trade to ensue.  Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC rate decision to dictate direction into the close.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 7663 triggering a liquidation down through the Tuesday low 7625.25.  Look for buyers down at 7611.  Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC rate decision to dictate direction into the close.

Hypo 3 short squeeze ahead of the Fed.  Buyers fully traverse the air gap, tagging 7800 before the meeting.  Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC rate decision to dictate direction into the close.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NOTE: While most active traders have ‘rolled forward’ to trading the September contract, this report and all price levels referenced are for the June contract, which I will continue to trade until next week.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday, Flag Day, gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced most of the overnight session until about 4am New York when sellers began pressing prices lower.  We made a new weekly low overnight, poking into last Friday’s range briefly before discovering a responsive bid.  At 8:30am, advance retail sales data came out below expectations. As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside of Wednesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have the primary June reading of sentiment from the University of Michigan at 10am and business inventories at the same time.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and beyond Wedneday’s range.  An early drive higher managed to poke just beyond the Tuesday midpoint before sellers stepped in and worked us range extension down.  Said sellers were unable to reclaim the Wednesday range however, and we spent the rest of the day chopping along the daily midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7524.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7527.75.  Look for sellers up at 7550 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 7600, triggering a rally up to 7645 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 7451.50 setting up a move to target 7415.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ future are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight until about 10pm New York when sellers stepped in and spiked price lower.  The action tagged the gap left behind from last Friday nearly to the tick before forming a sharp excess low and reversing the auction higher.  By 6:30am price had traversed the entire Wednesday range and taken out the highs.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out worse-than-expected, and as we approach cash open price is hovering just below the Wednesday high.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week t-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 30-year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap down that buyers were unable to resolve during the open two-way auction.  Instead sellers stepped in and worked price down through the weekly low by a few points but this did not trigger a liquidation down into the weekend gap.  Instead price balanced out and marked time below the daily midpoint and into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7524.  Look for sellers up at 7550 and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7550 setting up a move to target the open gap up at 7645 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7474.  Look for buyers down at 7450 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price worked lower overnight, trading down below the Tuesday range before coming into balance.  At 8:30am, consumer price index data came out and below expectations, suggesting inflation is below expectations.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering just below the Tuesday range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by a monthly budget statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and probe higher, up beyond the Monday high (which was set after tagging an old naked value point of control from May 17th) which discovered strong responsive sellers.    The rest of the early morning was choppy and volatile before giving way to sellers who eventually closed the overnight gap and pressed a bit below it, but never took out the Monday low before we balanced into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7518.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7531.  Look for seller ahead of 7550 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers reject a move back into Tuesday range low 7492.75 setting up a move down through overnight low 7472.75.  Look for buyers down at 7460.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers press up through overnight high 7531, tag the 7600 century mark and sustain trade above it setting up a move to target the open gap at 7645 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price opened gap up Sunday night, pushing up nearly 60 points when Globex opened for trade at 6pm New York. The action was faded lower until about 9pm when we came into balance.  Then around 7am sellers began working price a bit higher.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering up near the highs of 05/21.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS jobs openings at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week began with weakness through most of Monday, across the board, except for the Russell was strong.  This major risk divergence was interesting, because the rest of the week was spent rallying hard.  We closed the week on the highs across the board.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday, the NASDAQ printed a short squeeze, ‘letter P’ shaped profile.  The day began with a gap up and drive higher, and while the market went range extension up (normal variation up) it accomplished little more—instead it drifted sideways into the closing bell.  Perhaps most participants took off early to enjoy, weather-wise, at least in the north, what felt like the first real summer weekend.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7484.75 and continuing higher to tag the open gap at 7511.25.  Then the magnet, naked VPOC at 7571 is tagged before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close teh gap down to 7420.75.  Look for buyers down at the 7400 century mark and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers reverse much of Friday’s short squeeze, trading down to 7311.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher around 3:30am after spending much of the overnight session in balance.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims and trade balance data came out worse-than-expected.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the upper-quadrant of Wednesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and drive lower.  Sellers managed to close the overnight gap within the first hour and continue lower, nearly tagging the naked VPOC of Tuesday before discovering a responsive bid.  Buyers then worked price back up through the daily midpoint and defended it for the rest of the session.  We ramped higher near end-of-day but not enough to push neutral.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 7264.25 setting up a move to target the open gap at 7294.75.  Look for sellers up at 7300 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down into the overnight inventory and trade down through overnight low 7181 setting up a move to target 7178.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7307.25 setting up a move to target 7347.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price worked higher overnight, after being balanced until about 5am New York.  Price probed up into last Thursday’s range before finding responsive sellers.  At 8:15am ADP employment data came out well below expectations.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering below last Thursday’s midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM non-manufacturing/services data at 1oam followed by crude oil inventories at 10:30am and Fed beige book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up.  The day began with a gap up and two-way auction before buyers stepped in and drove higher.  Said buyers reversed all of Monday’s selling pressure by late morning then continued to campaign higher throughout the afternoon, eventually ending the day at high-of-day, near last Friday’s high.

Trend up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and trade us down to 7200.  Buyers step in here, ahead of the gap fill, and work us up through overnight high 7245.25.  Look for sellers up at 7256.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, sustaining trade above 7259.50 to set up a move to target the open gap at 7294.75.  Look for sellers at the 7300 century mark and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 7181.50 then continue lower, down through overnight low 7176.75.  Look for buyers down at 7158.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »