NOTE: While most active traders have ‘rolled forward’ to trading the September contract, this report and all price levels referenced are for the June contract, which I will continue to trade until next week.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday, Flag Day, gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced most of the overnight session until about 4am New York when sellers began pressing prices lower. We made a new weekly low overnight, poking into last Friday’s range briefly before discovering a responsive bid. At 8:30am, advance retail sales data came out below expectations. As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside of Wednesday’s range.
Also on the economic calendar today we have the primary June reading of sentiment from the University of Michigan at 10am and business inventories at the same time.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up and beyond Wedneday’s range. An early drive higher managed to poke just beyond the Tuesday midpoint before sellers stepped in and worked us range extension down. Said sellers were unable to reclaim the Wednesday range however, and we spent the rest of the day chopping along the daily midpoint.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7524. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7527.75. Look for sellers up at 7550 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 7600, triggering a rally up to 7645 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 7451.50 setting up a move to target 7415.75 before two way trade ensues.
Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves: