NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked higher around 3:30am after spending much of the overnight session in balance. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims and trade balance data came out worse-than-expected. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the upper-quadrant of Wednesday’s range.
Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up and drive lower. Sellers managed to close the overnight gap within the first hour and continue lower, nearly tagging the naked VPOC of Tuesday before discovering a responsive bid. Buyers then worked price back up through the daily midpoint and defended it for the rest of the session. We ramped higher near end-of-day but not enough to push neutral.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 7264.25 setting up a move to target the open gap at 7294.75. Look for sellers up at 7300 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers press down into the overnight inventory and trade down through overnight low 7181 setting up a move to target 7178.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7307.25 setting up a move to target 7347.25.
Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
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