NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat. The globex session featured a normal range and volume during which price managed to hold yesterday’s high and exceed it. Overnight we pushed deep into the range from 09/17, the Fed rate decision day that marked intermediate swing high.

At 9:15 am the Industrial/Manufacturing Production data is out. At 10am the U of Michigan Confidence preliminary read will be released. Perhaps the number will carry more weight as this weekend the school faces off against Michigan State University in football. I have no idea if that matters. At 1pm the Baker Hughes rig count and finally at 4pm the Total Net TIC flows.

Yesterday we printed a big neutral extreme up day. It started with a gap up and price inside Wednesday’s upper quadrant. The we went RE up and stalled, traversed the entire range, tested the low, immediately found buyers and spent the rest of the day trending higher.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work toward overnight high 4426.50. Look for responsive sellers to engage and two way trade to ensue north of the 4400 century mark.

Hypo 2 sellers push and take out overnight low 4405. Look for continuation down to 4389.75 then two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3, sellers accelerate through 4389 to target 4374 then responsive buyers and Friday churn.

Hypo 4 we continue trending higher to probe above the 09/17 high at 4441.50. Look for responsive selling.

Levels:

I don’t really see a need to over think these next two days.  Speed is down and the goal heading into tomorrow is for market makers to defecate on as many directional bets as it possibly can.

With that in mind, let me reissue my volume profile chart, zoomed for effect, and also to properly identify where this market is likely to spend the most amount of time heading into the weekend.  Check it out:

As a citizen, it is your duty to report anyone getting excited (bull or bear) when we press the extremes.  We will then issue them an empty bag, to hold, while an audience of onlookers throws stones and fruit at them.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after a normal session of trade.  By normal I mean both range and volume were within their respective first standard deviation.  Price pushed down below yesterday’s range and down into last Thursday before finding buyers and rotating back up to the high.  Advance Retail Sales at 8:30am came in slightly lower than expectations and introduced some sellers into the market.

Bank earnings were sort of a non-event—BAC is up a touch, WFC and JPM are down a touch.  SanDisk is holding onto its gains after work of a sale came out yesterday evening.

We also have the Fed Beige book today at 2pm.

Yesterday we formed a neutral extreme down.  After a borderline pro gap was snapped up by buyers we formed an excess high and then traversed the entire range to close near the low of the session and just below initial balance (hence the neutral extreme classification).

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to make a push to take out overnight high 4350.50 and target the MCVPOC at 4361.  Just a touch higher at 4366 look for responsive sellers to emerge and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through the overnight range and take out overnight low 4321.  Look for a move to target 4310.50 then look for responsive buyers and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers move fast, take out 4310 early setting up a move for the 4300 century mark. Stretch target is the MCVPOC we established last week down at 4290.

Hypo 4 buyers sustain above 4366 setting up a test of yesterday’s high 4390.75.

Levels:

Heading into Tuesday, NASDAQ futures are priced for a gap down. The overnight session started with a small spike beyond Monday’s high on comments from Brainard before reversing course and pushing lower. Range is slightly elevated on normal volume, and price managed to push below Monday’s low and through nearly all of last Friday’s range. At 6am NFIB Small Business Optimism came out better-than-expected and brought some buyers into the market.

The economic calendar is quiet this morning aside from earnings announcements. Fed’s Bullard has been speaking since 8am, but the calendar is otherwise open.

Yesterday we started the week gap up, quickly filled it, then worked higher before stalling into a slow grind session. It was Columbus Day and many major financial institutions were closed. However, we did push a bit deeper into the 09/17 swing high day before turning lower.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyer to work into the overnight inventory. However, look for them to struggle at filling the overnight gap, instead stalling out below 4362. From there look for a move to take out overnight low 4339.25 setting up an exploration of the low-end of value, look for responsive buyers down at 4311.

Hypo 2 sellers push off the gap down and take out overnight low 4339.25 early. They continue down through 4311 and target the 4300 century mark.

Hypo 3 buyers fill the overnight gap up to 4376 then set their sights on overnight high 4381.50. Upside target is 4392 with a 4400 stretch target.

Levels:

Where the NASDAQ currently stands is the top-end of a well-established distribution.  Unless the higher time frame comes into work on their day off and pushes this thing, we are in balance.

No sense chasing this, IMO:

NASDAQ futures suggest stocks are set to start the week slightly higher. The globex session featured a normal range and volume, despite several financial institutions being closed in observation of Columbus Day. Price managed to briefly exceed Friday’s high, and as we approach opening bell price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Friday’s range.

There are no economic events today. There are a few low impact Fed speakers.

Last week the market opened gap up and pushed higher. Then Tuesday through Thursday afternoon we traded sideways. After Thursday afternoon’s Fed minutes we pushed higher. Friday extended the gain by printing a normal variation up. Price managed to go up and close the 09/17 open gap at 4366.25 before stalling into two-way trade.

If you recall, 09/17 was the day the FOMC rate decision came out unexpectedly unchanged. Price spiked higher, NYSE TICK was extreme, and we faded all afternoon—effectively printing a swing high that lasted several weeks. Thus to revisit this level we have to imagine short sellers are on their heels.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push down into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4357.75. Look for buyers to defend north of the overnight low 4346.25 setting up a move to take out overnight high 4371.75 and target 4376.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through overnight low 4346.25. They continue lower to test below Friday’s low 4331.25 and find responsive buyers below the level setting up two-way trade south of 4360.

Hypo 3 buyers gap-and-go up, take out 4378.50 early and set their sights on 4392.

Levels:

NASDAQ futures are priced to start Friday with a small gap up after a globex session that featured normal range and volume.  Price managed to exceed Thursday’s high overnight and formed a weak/vulnerable high up at 4357.75.

On the economic calendar today we have Wholesale Inventories and Wholesale Trade Sales at 10am.  The Baker Hughes Rig Count is the only other scheduled event and will be released at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up day.  After a gap down sellers pushed lower for most of the morning.  Sellers probed below Wednesday’s low briefly before the auction reversed.  At 2pm the FOMC minutes produced a buy on third reaction.  Price went up and closed the overnight gap then continued to close the open gap at 4341.25 dating back to 09/21. Price closed near session highs earning the ‘neutral extreme’ moniker.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for a slow tape.  Look for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4345.  Look for buyers to defend north of 4330 then make a move to target overnight high 4357.75.  This sets up the gap fill up to 4366.25.  Stretch target is 4370.

Hypo 2 buyers run higher off the gap, close the 4366.25 gap then stall around 4370 and turn lower to close the overnight gap down to 4345 then target overnight low 4324.25.  Look for responsive buyers at 4311 and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong buying early, take out 4370, churn, then continue higher to 4378.50.  Stretch target is 4392.

Hypo 4 sellers accelerate the tape, we take out 4310 and work down to the 4300 century mark.

Levels:

Futures are priced for a slight gap lower in the NASDAQ this morning after a balanced Globex session. Price was contained within yesterday’s range on normal volume overnight. At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came out mixed. The initial reaction is a small amount of buying.

Today at 2pm The Fed releases Minutes from their September 16-17 FOMC meeting. Also, throughout the day several Fed cast members will be speaking at various engagements.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down balance day. This was the second consecutive day where sellers managed to press a range extension lower. However, they have accomplished little else. Instead the week has seen price drift slightly higher. Wednesday closed near session high.

If you look at the below volume profile chart, you will see I added a red/green volume profile. When we have several sessions of overlapping action I add one of these to get a better picture of what is going on in the region.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4324. This opens the door for a move to target overnight high 4328.75. There is a cluster of short-term resistance just above from 4328.75-4331.25 but it resembles a weak high so I will not be leaning on it. Instead I will look for responsive sellers around the open gap at 4341.25 and two-way trade to ensue as we wait for Fed minutes.

Hypo 2 sellers work lower off the open to take out overnight low 4288. We have a weak looking low on the overnight session which makes this test likely. Look for sellers to attempt a continued probe lower to close the weekend gap still open down to 4261.75 but stall out around 4277.25.

Hypo 3 buyers push up and close the 4341.25 open gap early on, some churn north of 4307 (LVN from the 3-day volume profile added to chart) which sets up a secondary leg higher to target the open gap up to 4366.25.

Hypo 4 is liquidation ensues. Price pushes down and closes the 4261.75 gap early and sellers set their sights on 4243.25. If they get down below this level we could see a fast, liquidation-type move.

Levels:

Index futures are pricing a positive open for stocks this Wednesday. The NASDAQ managed to print an extreme range as it moved higher on elevated volume. Price managed to hold Tuesday’s low before turning higher and trending for most of the session to make a fresh weekly high heading into the midweek trade. At 7am MBA Mortgage Application data came out much higher than expected. The initial reaction was a small buying pulse.

The only other economic event today is the Consumer Credit data at 3pm. Investors are likely to begin weighing the looming FOMC minutes (tomorrow at 2pm) into the decision process as today progresses.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. This day type is characterized as having a balanced, bell-shaped volume distribution. It earns the ‘down’ potion from extended price lower after forming initial balance (first hour of trade).   It carried a slight expectation for lower prices heading into today—thus its reasonable to surmise short sellers being in an uncomfortable position heading into today.

My primary expectation today is for buyers to push off the open and trade up to the open gap at 4341.25. This is also the VAH of a well established balance area formed around 09/18. From there look for sellers to step in and work into the overnight inventory to test down to 4304 where I expect buyers to defend and two-way trade to ensue with a slight positive drift.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go up. Price takes out 4341.25 and overshoots it early, setting up a move to target the open gap at 4366.25. Stretch target is 4378.50.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through 4304, muddle about the 4300 century mark, then continue working lower to close the overnight gap down to 4289.50. From there they seek to target overnight low 4270.75 and Monday’s still open gap down at 4261.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Like flipping a switch, the overnight volatility we’ve experienced for weeks is gone.  NASDAQ futures traded on normal range and volume overnight on a session that was contained inside Monday’s range.  Price worked slightly lower but as we approach cash open the market is right around Monday’s MID.  At 7:30am Trade Balance data came out slightly below expectations and the initial reaction has been mute.

We have no other economic events on the calendar today.  The market will be left to discover prices and balance on its own.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution day.  It was not really trending price action but instead we saw a p-shape profile form atop a normal distribution.  The P-shape suggests a short squeeze occurred late in the session.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyer to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4312.25.  From there they target overnight high 4314.  Sellers defend around the 4315 level and we churn and chop before continuing higher to target 4320.25 then the open gap up at 4341.25.

Hypo 2 sellers work in around the gap fill/overnight high 4312.25 – 4314 and roll price over.  Price works down below Monday’s low 4279 and targets the weekend gap fill down to 4261.75.  There’s a globex distribution down to 4253—if sellers can push below it, they open up the door for a fast liquidation down to 4200.  We may see a false move down into the slip zone where buyers defend 4244.

Hypo 3 sellers push off the open, leave the overnight gap open, and work down below Monday’s low 4279 and targets the weekend gap fill down to 4261.75.  Then it is eyes on the globex distribution down to 4253—if sellers can push below it, they open up the door for a fast liquidation down to 4200.  Again, we may see a false move down into the slip zone where buyers defend 4244.

Levels: