Heading into Tuesday, NASDAQ futures are priced for a gap down. The overnight session started with a small spike beyond Monday’s high on comments from Brainard before reversing course and pushing lower. Range is slightly elevated on normal volume, and price managed to push below Monday’s low and through nearly all of last Friday’s range. At 6am NFIB Small Business Optimism came out better-than-expected and brought some buyers into the market.
The economic calendar is quiet this morning aside from earnings announcements. Fed’s Bullard has been speaking since 8am, but the calendar is otherwise open.
Yesterday we started the week gap up, quickly filled it, then worked higher before stalling into a slow grind session. It was Columbus Day and many major financial institutions were closed. However, we did push a bit deeper into the 09/17 swing high day before turning lower.
Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyer to work into the overnight inventory. However, look for them to struggle at filling the overnight gap, instead stalling out below 4362. From there look for a move to take out overnight low 4339.25 setting up an exploration of the low-end of value, look for responsive buyers down at 4311.
Hypo 2 sellers push off the gap down and take out overnight low 4339.25 early. They continue down through 4311 and target the 4300 century mark.
Hypo 3 buyers fill the overnight gap up to 4376 then set their sights on overnight high 4381.50. Upside target is 4392 with a 4400 stretch target.
Levels:
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should be good now, thanks
Raul can I ask about the time of day you are creating the market profiles. Maybe I am missing something but I see times of 21:00 15:00 03:00 – just not sure of their significance.
Profiles are split and merged at my discretion, this is the only reason my levels are better than everyone else’s. I can ‘see’ the market better.
Too bad you are short this week after all that research you did over the weekend. Might want to double check those results..LOL
I would pay attention to the overall thesis – Raul is also considering bank earnings and beige book into his call, and these start AMC today.
Second week of having a short bias, actually, yet somehow I managed to nail some nice longs late last week. I press my edge every time its offered to me, up until I am proven wrong, then I pivot.
I won’t say it has been enjoyable. Last week I was still bagging nice shorts, this week has been a different beast.
Hypo 3 for the win 🙂
Hypo-heckling…. lol!